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Notes on Tet-a-tte: World War III Scenario

Hypothesis:  Chain of events following fictional withdrawal of United States troops from Vietnam in 1968.  Non-nuclear.
Date: May 5, 1979

USA-
	After the Tet Offensive on January 30, 1968, pressure on President Lyndon Johnson to pull American troops from Vietnam reached a new high.  Faced with the possibility of more American casualties, and with the presidential elections in November, Johnson asked for a total withdrawal of troops from Indochina on February 5, 1968.  Feeling that such a move would increase their own popularity ratings by November, Congress quickly approved the action and American troops began a massive withdrawal from Southeast Asia.

	As the year progressed, media reports from Vietnam showed the brutal North Vietnamese invasion of the shattered and broken South Vietnamese government.  Many newspapers criticized the president for "backing out" on the South Vietnamese and questions were raised in the international community about how trustworthy the US was as an ally.  These questions were just enough political firepower to bring Richard Nixon into the White House by the slimmest of margins over Lyndon Johnson.

	South Vietnamese refugees would not let the issue of American trust go away, and continued their blasting of the United States.  In an interesting move, the USSR and China trumpeted the plight of South Vietnamese to show the world the "cowardice of the American people".  Several Nixon and Kissinger attempts to normalize relations with the USSR and China in 1972 failed, and the entire world became increasingly isolated.  Nixon, angered over being Johnson's whipping boy in international affairs and of voters' apathy due to the economic recession in the USA, turned down the Republican ticket in 1972.  Voters elected Democratic South Dakota Senator George McGovern in November of that year over a shattered Republican Party.

	Focusing more on domestic crises, McGovern considered America's position internationally as the world's mediator and not the world's policeman.  This position angered many allies and it was a catalyst for the Yom Kippur War in 1973.  An embargo was put in place by OPEC barring all oil trade to the United States due to America's support of the Israelis.  Israeli forces were victorious, however, and crossed the Suez Canal before a cease-fire was signed.

	Another major crises developed in July, 1974 when two NATO allies, Greece and Turkey, were at odds due to a Turkish invasion of the island of Cyprus after a pro-Greek military coup.  The NATO community put the weight of its blame on the complacent McGovern policies in Europe and the Middle East.  Despite a major effort in 1975 by McGovern, the country remained divided between Greek and Turkish forces.  McGovern was ousted by electors in 1976 in favor of Ronald Reagan, America's sixth president in as many elections.

	With the election of Ronald Reagan as President in 1976, the Reagan administration decided on an "Iron Stance" against the OPEC oil boycott and the USSR.  Reagan proclaimed that he would stop at nothing to prevent communist expansion in Europe and would break the power of the Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

USSR-
	Comrade Brezhnev's gamble of sending military aid to the North Vietnamese helped to solidify the communist regime of Vietnam.  This led to a Soviet-sytle system of goverment in most of Indo-China.  Military aid continued through the 1970's in the African countries of Somalia and Angola, futhering the expanse of Communism.  The european communist states, however, were beginning to crack under the Soviet system.  The "Prague Spring" of 1968 was quelled with an invasion of Czechoslovakia by Russian, Polish, East German, Hungarian, and Bulgarian troops.  This invasion was successful, but not without alienating the USSR from the rest of the world.  Successive uprisings in Leipzig, the Gdansk shipyards, and the Baltic States were met with more peaceful methods of solution, but the keg had been sparked.  The USSR, seeing its position in Europe threatened, focused on restoring order in its satelite states, and ultra-conservative, fiercely loyal puppet governments were put in place throughout Eastern Europe in the winter of 1971-1972.

	By 1974, a worldwide recession had a major impact on the USSR and Eastern Europe.  The inefficient politics and economic systems in place created massive shortfalls in the Societ budget.  In spite of the shortfalls, military spending still increased, but at a slower pace than the United States.

	By the spring of 1979, the economic situation of the Warsaw Pact looked seriously grave.  Brezhnev and Politburo members realized that the Soviet state would probably dissolve within five years if something drastic wasn't done.  Many younger members of the Politburo demanded economic reforms and liberalization of human rights in the Warsaw Pact nations, but Brezhnev and the old guard of the Politburo decided that a full scale invasion of Iran and its oil interests would solve the "temporary problems" of the Soviet state.  These plans have been temporarily scrapped with the new situation in the Middle East.

MIDDLE EAST-
	In Egypt, Anwar Sadat made great strides to cool down the situation in the Middle East.  Realizing the futility of agression with Israel, Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachim Begin signed the Geneva Peace Accords in April, 1978.  This peace treaty alienated Egypt from the rest of the Arab League, and Sadat was nearly assassinated while reviewing a military parade in October, 1978.

	Tensions in the Middle East erupted in the winter of 1978-1979 as the Shah of Iran was deposed by fundamentalist revolutionaries, Saddam Hussein gained power in Iraq and instituted a bloody purge on his adversaries, and a Civil War continued in Lebanon.

	On April 26, 1979, Arab spies found conclusive evidence that Israel was starting to develop chemical weapons with American aid.  The Arab League declared war on Israel and the US on April 27, 1979.  American diplomats in several Arab countries were expelled or taken hostage.

SITUATION-
	The initial push on Israel was failing when Saddam Hussein meted out an oil-for-war trade with the USSR.  The Warsaw Pact would receive greatly increased amounts of cheap oil in exchange for a declaration of war on Israel and its allies.  The Warsaw Pact will declare war on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Israel later today.

OTHER NATIONS-

FINLAND: Finland has long been at odds with the Soviet Union, but they have normalized relations with the USSR and have adopted a socialist economic system approved by the Soviets.  They will side with the Soviets at the beginning of the war, but if things turn in NATO's favor, it will quickly join the fight against the Warsaw Pact.

SPAIN: Spain was going to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in mid-1979, but the current situation has made them distance themselves from the conflict.  They will side with NATO early in the war, but if the situation looks bad for Western Europe, they might choose to sign a peace treaty with the Warsaw Pact and save Spanish lives.

YUGOSLAVIA: Yugoslavia's situation is much like Finland's with its close economic ties to the USSR and Eastern Europe.  It will uphold the NAM position of neutrality at the beginning of the war, but it may side in either direction depending on the current of the war.

INDIA-PAKISTAN: A quarter of a world away, the tensions between India and Pakistan have grown to see scattered fighting reappear along the Indo-Pakistani border.  The world situation may compel the Hindu and Muslim governments to solve their differences on the battleground and cripple each other's power.  Both sides are well-stocked and a war would bring many casualties.