25-11-2003 06:53									#31
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Vote Green, the only party which will reform the system.

	25-11-2003 07:47									#32
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quote: Originally posted by Shi Huangdi It's usually typical for countries at war to run large deficits.

Ditto for countries going through slow economic periods.

However, what's got the analysts freaking out is that their models are showing the deficits continuing even when good economic times and an end to the war are factored in. (see The Economist for the week of November 8-14 - their estimates show the deficit likely to steadily increase over the next decade)

The fact that the various American governmental bodies in charge of monitoring projected budget outcomes have been ordered to use dubious methodology to downplay the situation is also causing a lot of concern - when the government won't even face up to the problem, there's not a lot of hope that the problem is going to be fixed.

	25-11-2003 08:01									#33
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Everyone knows the Republicans are horrible economic managers but the truth is Democrates are no better. In fact Clinton only balanced the budget because conservatives in Congress made him do it plus he didn't get any of his major spending programs (Anyone remember universal health care?) through Congress.

	25-11-2003 08:23									#34
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin (Anyone remember universal health care)

You think it's a good thing you don't have universal health care?

The Western world laughs at you over that cos we all got it.

	25-11-2003 08:33									#35
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quote: Originally posted by DanS That's because your debt was insanely high and you needed to reduce it.

Our debt as a percentage of GDP was never above 60%, IIRC. And right now it's about 5% lower than yours...

	25-11-2003 08:35									#36
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BTW, the person that presided over the running up of our national debt was a conservative.

	25-11-2003 08:41									#37
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i dont care about higher taxes if the quality of life is improved because of that. and universal health care is one of those things that would cause the quality to go up for a large amount of people.

republicans just dont care about quality of life for the average american because they arent willing to put the money there.

and whats with the hypocrisy of the republicans where, while in congress they force a balanced budget, but when in presidency they just dont give a flying rat's ass.

americans just dont care though.

	25-11-2003 09:00									#38
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quote: Our debt as a percentage of GDP was never above 60%, IIRC. And right now it's about 5% lower than yours...

You remember incorrectly.

Canada's net debt was about 85% in 1997. That's a lot of money, and among the G-7 was only smaller than Italy's net debt (how's that for a dubious distinction ). That's why it has been smart to run surpluses. Now it's at about 52%, a little higher than the US'. Manageable.

quote: BTW, the person that presided over the running up of our national debt was a conservative.

It was run up over a period of 20 years from about 1975 to 1995. So only partially presided over by a conservative, right?

	25-11-2003 09:06									#39
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Horse: I believe we were talking about balancing the budget vs. major spending programs.

	25-11-2003 09:08									#40
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The FED was found lying in a gutter behind the Whitehouse after a viscious mugging last week. Police have no firm leads.

	25-11-2003 09:10									#41
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I was wrong about the 5% difference (it's about 2.7% your way), but:



AFAIK, as I said, we were never above 60%

	25-11-2003 09:16									#42
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quote: Originally posted by DanS It was run up over a period of 20 years from about 1975 to 1995. So only partially presided over by a conservative, right?

It tripled between 1984 and 1993 (absolute figures), a period in which our GDP most certainly did not...

	25-11-2003 09:20									#43
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That's just the federal government. Net debt includes state and local governments and is the metric to compare across countries.

	25-11-2003 10:47									#44
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quote: Originally posted by Alexander's Horse Didn't George Bush 1 lose control of the budget too?

No, that's not really fair. GHWB was able to balance taxes and spending--except for the payment on the interest on the debt run up by Reagan. So GHWB's budgets still ran a deficit, but it wasn't really his fault.

Of course, ol' tax and spend Bill Clinton was able to balance the budget while making the interest payments. Plus, he gave us the longest expansion of the economy in U.S. history. No wonder the Republicans claim his economic policies were so bad for the country.

	25-11-2003 10:54									#45
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quote: Originally posted by Zkribbler Of course, ol' tax and spend Bill Clinton was able to balance the budget while making the interest payments. Plus, he gave us the longest expansion of the economy in U.S. history. No wonder the Republicans claim his economic policies were so bad for the country.

Yep - he was a great President.

If he was still around I'm sure you wouldn't be in the pickle you are today, including on foreign policy.

	25-11-2003 13:03									#46
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quote: Originally posted by DanS In 2003, we will run a deficit of 4% or 4.5%

Slightly creative accounting by you here DanS, the average deficit in the first three quarters was 4.8% of GDP (and the deficit in Q3 is 5.4%).
So are you really expecting the deficit to halve in the fourth quarter?.
I think that a deficit of around 5% is far more likely for both the fourth quarter and the year.

quote: Originally posted by DanS ...and will have economic growth of 3%. Germany and France will run deficits of 3.5% or 4% and have no economic growth to show for it.

Well there is also the matter of differing ways of measuring growth - the hedonic deflator add's 0.5% to the US's growth (although France uses this as well) , the inclusion of software purchases add's another 0.1% and the difference in population growth is around 1%.

A truer picture would be obtained by looking at the structural deficits and the trend rates of growth per head (adjusted for the differences in measurement I mentioned above)

Using OECD and IMF data (but not the IMF forecast for the US budget defict that we both think is excessive) here is the structural deficit and per capita trend growth the US and some countries in europe: (the figures are show only to the nearest 0.25% to reflect the inherent inaccuracies of estimating this data)

United States:
Trend growth per head: 2%
Structural Budget Deficit: 4.5%

Germany:
Trend growth per head: 2%
Structural Budget Deficit: 2.75%

France:
Trend growth per head: 2%
Structural Budget Deficit: 3.25%

Britian:
Trend growth per head: 2.75%
Structural Budget Deficit: 1.75%

EU15:
Trend growth per head: 2.25%
Structural Budget Deficit: 1.5%

	25-11-2003 15:38									#47
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there are 2 wars going on

duh

	25-11-2003 16:02									#48
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Yes Ted, but:

quote: Originally posted by Case However, what's got the analysts freaking out is that their models are showing the deficits continuing even when good economic times and an end to the war are factored in. (see The Economist for the week of November 8-14 - their estimates show the deficit likely to steadily increase over the next decade)

	25-11-2003 16:55									#49
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i'm sure most of the older people here don't have to worry about the deficit exploding on them. i mean, after all, by the time things get really bad, they'll be in retirement homes cashing in their 401(k)s, while us young'uns will be the ones stuck with the ****ing huge bill.

so **** all y'all old people.

and i say that in the nicest possible way.

	25-11-2003 17:46									#50
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker there are 2 wars going on

Well as I said defence spending has only increased by 1% of GDP, and probably only half of that is due to the wars.

As the deterioration in the US's structural budget balance (i.e. that which would happen if the economy was running at it's trend) is over 5% of GDP then between a fifth and a tenth of the deficit is caused by the wars.

quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker duh

Well as I showed above - a little knowledge is a dangerous thing

	25-11-2003 18:13									#51
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The new Medicare plan that should pass soon isn't going to help the budget situation out any...

I think I might just stay overseas until the baby boomers all die off.

	25-11-2003 18:23									#52
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Wars are expensive. The UN was a much cheaper option.

	25-11-2003 19:51									#53
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old people are expensive, too.

damn crotchety old fogies, feeding off of us productive young people like ancient vampires...

	25-11-2003 20:04									#54
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quote: A truer picture

Comparing per capita GDP growth create does not create a truer picture when we are comparing budget deficits.

quote: Slightly creative accounting by you here DanS, the average deficit in the first three quarters was 4.8% of GDP (and the deficit in Q3 is 5.4%).

Yeh, and 3rd quarter GDP growth was 8.2% at an annual rate, which might bump up our full year growth number from 3%. Point being that deficits shouldn't be looked at in a vacuum.

	25-11-2003 20:18									#55
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for the people blaming the deficit on war:

1. Bush's tax cut is 4 times larger than all the money being spent in Iraq AND 9-11 related costs.

2. During times of past wars, while we were running deficits, the top marginal tax rate was up around 90%. It's fine with me if you want to return to that tax plan.

	25-11-2003 21:04									#56
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quote: Originally posted by Q Cubed old people are expensive, too. damn crotchety old fogies, feeding off of us productive young people like ancient vampires...

Do not forget that, in their attempt to starve you, old people will be assisted by holders of the US foreign debt (mainly Chinese, Japanese, Arabs and probably drug lords) who will receive every year of your life enormous amount of interests.

	25-11-2003 21:16									#57
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all 'cause of those damn old people.

	25-11-2003 21:38									#58
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quote: Originally posted by Q Cubed all 'cause of those damn old people.

Yeah, I'm glad our scientists found an answer this summer, with the heatwave in France. Hopefully, this should be even worse next year, they are working on it.

	25-11-2003 21:59									#59
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse So is ours, and has been for 6 years straight.

congratulations on making the 2,510,000th post on Apolyton, KrazyHorse. I wonder who was post 2.5 million? Anyway, back to the bickering...

And you are proud that your government is overtaxing the citizenry? While $250,000,000,000 deficits are nothing to be proud about, allowing my government to steal more from my pocket then even they can spend is just as sad.

	25-11-2003 22:08									#60
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You Americans have always had a problem with being taxed. If you'd just enjoy it like good Europeans we wouldn't have had to have that silly revolution and you could still be nice respectable Brits.