10-12-2003 19:24									#31
	Further analysis : f*uck the SP - lets get out alive Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

So we have a plan for an effective withdrawal that concedes the land, has no time to pillage, but gets at least 30 of our units out - enough to make a good start on our sea wall.

The alternative is to try and stick it out, but the current risk/benefit outlook doesn't look good for staying, in my view.

It comes down to boats - to get most of our troops off we must take 18 units away this turn to get the boats back for the rest. This means we have to commit to a withdrawal now. If we stay, we might be able to grab some saltpeter, but for what, and at what cost?

We'll spend units holding GoW off. If there is any SP, they know where it is and could put their monster stack there. We have to get there, road it, keep a barracks city to upgrade the pikes - if there are many left, and stop research again to raise money. More turns, more attrition. We might be able to upgrade 4 pikes but will they and anyone else escape - and what are we going to do with them if we do get them out? Sitting on the coast doesn't need an expensive upgrade. vmxa1 got me thinking about this when he asked whether the SP was worth it. I said at the time that it was worth it but then I didn't anticipate that GoW would come after us rather than Pamplona.

Our path is clear. Or rather - it will be once we snip that road and start the escape. The alternative is death and sacrifice and possible GoW GL's - for nothing.

If anyone can modify the plans to include pillaging some hills round NM without impairing our own escape, then fine, but I spent hours last night staring at it and am convinced that sleepy's snip-and-run idea is our best option.

OK, so the bastards get a load of nice mines - but in the event of Bob vs Lego next we wanna see Lego get hurt, right?

	10-12-2003 19:24									#32
	Put an end to popups!

If we cut the road, they cannot bring the cats to bear this next turn. The Riders would have to attack w/o cat support.

How many units (and what types) could we have on the Barc4 hill waiting for them?

-Arrian

	10-12-2003 19:26									#33
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

I'm not against evacuation, not at all (I don't consider saltpeter to be very important to us, frankly), but I'm always looking for ways to make the enemy bleed.

-Arrian

	10-12-2003 19:29									#34
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If we were to try and hold Barc-4 after snipping the road we could have 4 pikes, 5 knights, 2 cats and 3 MI.

	10-12-2003 19:33									#35
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OK, if we can make them bleed without leaving us short for our own defences.

I hadn't considered defending Barc-4 once their cat access was denied. How would the odds look against 15 riders - plus possibly more coming through behind. They must have roaded Merida-96 to get those cats there.

	10-12-2003 19:35									#36
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ND could join in too.

	10-12-2003 19:44									#37
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So 9 units that defend at 3 (4.5 because of the hill), and 3 that defend at 2 (3 because of the hill), with 2 cat shots to soften. Are any of our unit true fortified?

They have 15 Riders. Hrm, we are likely to lose such a battle if they choose to attack all-out, but we're also likely to hurt them. What would we have available to counterattack with the next turn (knights from the Pamp332 stack?)?

I actually think they would wait to bring up the cats.

-Arrian

	10-12-2003 19:45									#38
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus ND could join in too.

How? The road would have to be 2 tiles wide, which it isn't.

-Arrian

	10-12-2003 19:48									#39
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By the way, in conjunction with this evacuation, are we in a position to perhaps rush some workers in our Spanish cities to grab some of the pop as we cut and run?

-Arrian

	10-12-2003 19:55									#40
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian So 9 units that defend at 3 (4.5 because of the hill), and 3 that defend at 2 (3 because of the hill), with 2 cat shots to soften. Are any of our unit true fortified? They have 15 Riders. Hrm, we are likely to lose such a battle if they choose to attack all-out, but we're also likely to hurt them. What would we have available to counterattack with the next turn (knights from the Pamp332 stack?)? I actually think they would wait to bring up the cats. -Arrian

Does that mean fortified the previous turn? I though that even if a unit had 1/3 of a movement point left it got properly fortified, and only the 'fortify all' command left units with 0mp not truly fortified.

Whatever, All those units except 3 knights were there and fortified last turn.

For countering - yes we have 7 knights, including one at 4/5.

	10-12-2003 19:59									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Arrian By the way, in conjunction with this evacuation, are we in a position to perhaps rush some workers in our Spanish cities to grab some of the pop as we cut and run? -Arrian

Yes, we could rush a worker in Barca and Sirocco may even have more than 10s in the box - I can check later. Galley capacity per turn is above.

	10-12-2003 20:01									#42
	re : ND getting there too Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

I was thinking more of them sweeping in from the North, onto the mountains near Pamp.

	10-12-2003 20:08									#43
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus Does that mean fortified the previous turn? I though that even if a unit had 1/3 of a movement point left it got properly fortified, and only the 'fortify all' command left units with 0mp not truly fortified. Whatever, All those units except 3 knights were there and fortified last turn. For countering - yes we have 7 knights, including one at 4/5.

Honestly, I'm not 100% sure about the fortification rules. Let's assume for now that we've got 3 unfortified knights there, plus the rest that are fortified.

4 pikes, 2 knights, and 3 MI will be fortified.

Therefore, we will have 6 units that defend at 5.25, 3 units that defend at 4.5, and 3 units that defend at 3.5. And 2 cat shots. Even if their 15 riders win control of Barc4, we can counterattack with 7 knights the following turn.

BY THE WAY, YOU MAY WISH TO CONSIDER ATTEMPTING TO DESTROY THE ROAD VIA CAT BOMBARD, if possible! Then we don't have to use a unit.

-Arrian

	10-12-2003 21:08									#44
	Increase the size of your Attachments

What good does it do us to damage the 15 Riders if we are evacuating?

Let GoW duke it out with someone else.

	10-12-2003 21:09									#45
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They could bring in more riders from Alamo to reinforce Barc-4, should they take it, limiting the appeal of a counter-attack with seven knights.

Judging by the powergraph and the F3, ND took some damage themselves at the forest of doom, but GoW are relatively stronger. I think they committed about 12 riders per turn to the current battle - losing perhaps 5 on the first turn and another couple this turn. Some are healing, but they could easily have another dozen units to send in next turn.

Yes, we can definitely make GoW bleed a bit this way but at what price to ourselves, if we have nothing left to defend Stormia?

	10-12-2003 21:23									#46
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I do not fear invasion yet. The northern coastal blockade has sealed that off, and we still have a formidable navy.

Let me ask you this: is buying ourselves 1 extra turn (including the spices supply) worth some risk?

If I'm GoW, and I see GS holding Barc4 in strength, I move my entire stack, plus any reinforcements I can muster, to Barc11, instead of attacking w/o cat support (if they DO attack w/o cat support, so much the better, good odds of bloodying them badly, I feel).

Then we pillage the road at Barc4 and withdraw into Barc (which has walls, with our GW bonus, for a 100% bonus) with the bulk of our forces, evacuating some (particularly northern troops in the Sircocco area, and perhaps the med infs from the Barcelona area. Sticking a bunch of knights/pikes in Barcelona forces them to blow another turn marching onto Barc4, or attack at bad odds.

Then, the following turn, we abandon Barcelona and retreat northward. We use up 2 pikes to cut the roads on Barcelona (the actual ruins tile) and Barcelona8, and we cut more roads further north with retreating knights. We also load as many units as we can onto our ships for evac.

The following turn, full evac, hopefully.

I assume, by the way, that we've decided *not* to use city gifting to teleport our units home? Last time we polled on whether or not to use teleportation, I voted against, so I'm happy if that's our decision, but the team overruled me at the time, favoring the continued use of that tactic/exploit.

-Arrian

	10-12-2003 21:30									#47
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus Yes, we could rush a worker in Barca and Sirocco may even have more than 10s in the box - I can check later. Galley capacity per turn is above.

If sircocco has significantly more than 10s in the box, perhaps rushing a galley might be worthwhile.

-Arrian

	10-12-2003 21:42									#48
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why not rush settlers instead of workers from the cities? exra pop points.

Arrian, we are not going to teleport anything off bob, we have enough transport capacity. Now as far as RP is concerned, that's up to them I suppose, if they want a last stand or not.


Theseus, you are right about why we shouldn't waste units on the 15 attacking riders. I was hoping to recapture our cats, but lets face it, that just isn't realistic at this point. I think we should leave a large garrison in barc this turn, so that lego's spies would see that and perhaps GoW would be more catious (and possibly hide our true intentions for another turn). Burn as many roads as possible, we do not want them to be able to just plunk down a settler and have a new luxury. make them work for it.

	10-12-2003 21:43									#49
	Put an end to popups!

Ok, if they really did build a road to connect our old Fort Lib road to the one coming south out of the Alamo, they can hit Barc4 with extra Riders out of Alamo next turn (5 moves on roads for 1 & 2/3 moves, one on the tile we're going to pillage for 2 & 2/3, and that last 1/3 mp is enough to hit Barc4, or reinforce it.

Or, if ND is assisting, and GoW does as I was thinking and moves 6 (to Barc11), ND can then use the road to bring up a slew of Ansars. ****.

Perhaps immediate withdrawl is the way to go. I'll leave it to you, though. I have to go to my office holiday luncheon now.

-Arrian

	10-12-2003 21:45									#50
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quote: Theseus, you are right about why we shouldn't waste units on the 15 attacking riders. I was hoping to recapture our cats, but lets face it, that just isn't realistic at this point. I think we should leave a large garrison in barc this turn, so that lego's spies would see that and perhaps GoW would be more catious (and possibly hide our true intentions for another turn). Burn as many roads as possible, we do not want them to be able to just plunk down a settler and have a new luxury. make them work for it.

Yeah, I admit it, I was hoping to get our cats back too (if only to disband them and deny them to the enemy). But having stared at that map for a while longer... not gonna happen.

Settlers are expensive (2 pop for 30 shields... assuming 1 shield in, that's 29*4 = 116g), and we're not rich anymore. Workers are more efficient to rush (36g if rushed with 1 shield in box).

-Arrian

	10-12-2003 21:48									#51
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

As for which units to evac immediately, probably the slowmovers - they are less likely to be able to retreat north, pillaging as they go and survive. Knights have that extra move, which means many can probably move, pillage, board galley. Or something like that.

Gotta run, good luck!

-Arrian

	10-12-2003 21:49									#52
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If we leave the large garrison in Barc, they won't be able to reach the boats next turn

	10-12-2003 21:52									#53
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How do we know that GoW don't have navigation?

	10-12-2003 22:07									#54
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus How do we know that GoW don't have navigation?

we don't, why are you concerned? crossing the sea to get to us, going around our wall?

We can leave a knight garrison in Barc, as they can move to ships off of sirocco next turn (I think....)

Arrian, you're right about the workers.


Hey, CH, I know that you hate to deal with GoW, but perhaps we could trade them those cities for 2 techs? Maybe they would be worth something for GoW to capture them intact, instead of having to rebuild them. OTOh, they would know that we couldn't defend them properly, but that should be assumed anyway, I would think. Anyway, since we have til next turn before we have to burn barca (at the minimum) we might have some time to work a deal.

	10-12-2003 22:11									#55
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

Yeah, a bit worried about them sailing round Estonia and turning up somewhere between Inchon/off and Hurricane

	10-12-2003 22:18									#56
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There's been some good discussion this turn, which is healthy. Despite a concerted attempt to explore defensive options, they don't look promising, but some pillaging would be nice.

It took ages last night to plan the two/three moves ahead to work out the kwik-evac plans with the boats and units - knights first, but I'll have a look now to see if we can (a) get some pillaging done and (b) get the slowmovers off first instead of the knights.

There's a critical European Champions League game between Arsenal and Lokomotiv Moscow tonight which I've gotta see at the pub, but I've a couple of hours before and an hour after before the save is due.

	10-12-2003 22:26									#57
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quote: Originally posted by Cort Haus There's been some good discussion this turn, which is healthy. Despite a concerted attempt to explore defensive options, they don't look promising, but some pillaging would be nice. It took ages last night to plan the two/three moves ahead to work out the kwik-evac plans with the boats and units - knights first, but I'll have a look now to see if we can (a) get some pillaging done and (b) get the slowmovers off first instead of the knights. There's a critical European Champions League game between Arsenal and Lokomotiv Moscow tonight which I've gotta see at the pub, but I've a couple of hours before and an hour after before the save is due.

Have fun watching the game.

This has been a good discussion. I'm trying to participate more to help out. Maybe its the public forum threads that got me going again, or maybe I feel like my input is more valued now, but whatever. There are highs and lows when you've been invovled in a game that's been going on for over a year.

	10-12-2003 23:00									#58
	Remove this text

Yes, it looks like we can pillage the roads between Barca and Sirocco with the knights once the footsies have gone north. This will buy us more time unless ND come screaming in from the North too. Knights from the boat can pillage some of the mines around New Madrid.

We can also get Pikes, Workers, Settlers and Cats off this turn to fill 15 of the 16 berths.

	10-12-2003 23:23									#59
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quote: Originally posted by Theseus Is there more pillaging that we should do to slow GoW down? I'm thinking Barc8 and Barc 87. Further, if we are ultimately abandoning Bob, part of the strategy is to make re-settlement as tough as possible for ND and GoW... shouldn't we be pillaging everything possible, especially high value tiles? Are there any improvements we should sell? Do we need to be thinking about the loss of the Barc spices? Do we need to inform RP that we are Dunkirking off of Bob? Are we expecting them to defend at Pamp and let it be taken? Or should they abandon Pamp and thus teleport to N. Stormia (I don't remember the turn order)? Should some of their low value units (I remember an Archer or Spear) be used for pillaging? Are there improvements they need to sell? Do we have the capacity / excess in southern Galleys to send at least a couple south as a picket? What is our thinking re the vast number of luxuries that ND and GoW will now control? We need a publicity plan re our defeat on Bob (god that pains me to say out loud). In terms of S. Stormian defense, we should start to look at having sufficient units to at least occupy the dangerous landing tiles, and our Knights (good recovery plan, sleepy!) to roam for the rest. I LOVED Arrian's thought re using Cats as coastal defense... perhaps we could focus our good cities on GWs / economic / scientific builds, and our less productive cities on re-building the Cat Corps. On that note, we will soon want to upgrade to Cannons, so let's start saving shekels. There is jam on the friggin' magnet.

1. Pillaging

This is possible (see below) and barc-8 can get snipped. barc-87 could be done, but it pulls the trade plug out this go. We could cut Barc-89 instead next turn to limit their advance.

2. Selling Improvements

Yes, one per turn in Barc and NM

3. Spices (see 1)

4. RP - Yes, we need to tell them what we're doing, but they're not being responsive (see log). Does anyone know anyone in RP from another game?

5. Southern picket.

Maybe spare the one galley already south - though it might squeeze the evac - by not bringing it back to help. So much planning needed, so little time ...

6. Luxuries

:shrug: there may be trade options later

7. PR

Sleepy's opened a thread

8. Defence

I look fwd to having the units back home safely.

	11-12-2003 00:24									#60
	Bob Moves Full PM-box? Change here!

Bob Cities:

Sell barracks in Barca, Granary in NM
Rush workers in Barc and Sirocco

Bob Moves:

Wounded knight in Barca snips Barc-44 and disbands

Pike at Pamp-332 moves 8
Knights at Pamp-332 move 66
Pike & MI at NM-777 move into NM
Stack at Tol-9 move 222
Pike & MI at Tol-98 move 2
PIke at Pamp-99 moves to NM-7
2 cats at Barc-4 onto galley.
2 galleys (2 cats + 2 settlers) - set move to OG-4
2 galley with 3 knights & 1 Pike enter sirocco,
first knight to NM-1 and pillage and moves 2
second knight to NM-9 and pillage and move 4
third knight to barc-87 and pillage
pike moves 6 into galley with settler, which moves to OG-77
3 workers & pike at Sir-44 move into Sir, board the two galleys which go toSir-666
2 Pikes and cat in NM move onto galleys at Sir-6, and the full galley moves to OG-77
Galley at Sir-69 to Sir-12
4 Pikes and 3 MI at Barc-4 and 1 knight move to Barc-89, other Knight at Barc-4 pillages and moves into Barc.
These two knights will pillage barc8 and barc89 next turn and jump in the galley next to them
PIke at NM-7 moves 32 and pillages

Galley near Mavdad moves 889 fortify
Galley near Essigbar moves to sea patch and fortifies