05-02-2004 00:31									#61
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quote: I'm not sure that every one of these ran in the primaries that year, but: Lieberman 2000, Kemp 1996, Gore 1992, Bush 1980, Mondale 1976, Dole 1976, Muskie 1968......

Only Bush ran in the primaries of all of them, IIRC. I'm not sure about Gore, but I think he didn't run in 1992 (though he did in 1988). Lieberman and Kemp I am 100% sure didn't run in the primaries.

	05-02-2004 00:35									#62
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Miller: no chance at all. He is a vain and unpredicatable opportunist and Kerry would never trust him.

Edwards: would certainly take it and may be offered the role. Edwards was looking at an extremely tough Senate fight in NC, where his presidential ambitions were lowering his poppularity. He cannot afford to sit around for 4-8 years as a lawyer and then jump back in. His ONLY chance is to be the veep. However, he may not even be able to carry the Carolinas, so his selection is not slam dunk. Also, he did some things in his trial lawyer days that won't look too good under a microscope.

Graham: a possibility, if it seems like he can bring Fla. He is very popular there. Florida is emerging as the Rep.s version of California: they can't win without it. But if he can't guarantee Florida he won't get it, since he is weird and boring and won't be much help anywhere else.

Breaux: a possibility. Louisiana has strong democrat leanings, and he would certainly carry it, but wouldn't help much elsewhere.

Richardson: a very real possibility, for his ability to carry New Mexico and maybe Arizona as well. If those two states go Dem, the Reps have no chance at all. His hispanic heritage also helps a lot in California and Illinois.

Hilary: 0% chance

regarding the south: you've got to figure Kerry to win WV. It has always been very solidly dem: only Gore's incompetance lost him the state. FL, LA, and Arkansas are also in play. Given the 400,000 jobs lost in the Carolinas, they may be in play if Edwards is the veep.

Other swing states: NH will go Dem this time, as it is increasingly dem anyway from Bostonians and New Yorkers moving up there. It was the only Northeastern state to go for Bush. Ohio and Missouri are big states that went for Bush that have been hit hard on jobs. They will be fiercely contested. Bush's chances without either of those look pretty dim.

Jimmytrick, in general:
With regard to Bush getting 400 electoral college votes, I'll bet you $1,000 right now that doens't happen. Barring the capture of OBL, I'll be amazed if Bush wins at all, given his record on jobs, health care, the defecit, the size and spending of his government, education, the environment, immigration, and his open patronage of corporations and the ultra-wealthy. If there's a blow-out, it's more likely to be against the Reps rather than for them.

	05-02-2004 00:36									#63
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Veep is usually a dead end job.

GHW Bush, Nixon, Johnson, Truman, Coolidge....... Not exactly a dead end job.

	05-02-2004 00:40									#64
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quote: Why would anyone vote for the dems. if Zell MIller was there?

Because Zell is the Veep and thus does not matter. Do you think people voted for George Bush I based on Dan Quayle? A vast majority of people vote on the guy at the top. The Veep is just bonus to get some states to lean your way (in a favored son type of way). The Veep doesn't do anything except take orders from the President and will never really hurt the top of a ticket.

Though Graham and Breaux wouldn't be bad either.

	05-02-2004 00:47									#65
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui The Veep doesn't do anything except take orders from the President and will never really hurt the top of a ticket.

People exagerate the problems Quayle presented in 1988, and by 1992, it was a referendum on the BUsh years, so it was irrelevant-just why keeping Dick Cheney as the runnin mate won't hurt Bush.

The thing is, you need a VP who can work with the president- I don't think Miller and Kerry have much of a relationship or would be able to. Miller is too different from Kerry to make sense. Its like saying Bush should take on HIllary Clinton as VP to shore up his ticket and win New York.

	05-02-2004 02:25									#66
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I think either Richardson or Graham would swing enough votes to make Kerry the odds-on favorite in November.

Miller? Not gonna happen. Too conservative. Maybe Breaux, but he's not as well known as the other two.

	05-02-2004 02:35									#67
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quote: Originally posted by Guynemer I think either Richardson or Graham would swing enough votes to make Kerry the odds-on favorite in November. Miller? Not gonna happen. Too conservative. Maybe Breaux, but he's not as well known as the other two.

I presume both Breaux and and Richardson are Catholics. Havent had one on a national ticket in quite some time - (Geraldine Ferraro?) Does that still matter?

General thoughts
Wild card - the economy - signs of growth - employment often lags - strong employment growth by 3rd quarter could impact things.


For Policy - a large portion of the swing vote will be very concerned with this. wild cards:if things break well in Iraq - Ayatollah Sistani could influence the US election.
Revolution in Iran. and of course capturing an AQ big wig, OBL or Zawahiri.

Kerry - can he make the case to the center that he has a plan for building democracy in Iraq and the region in general. (I think he should promise to make Lieberman his Sec of State - didnt Bush make that promise wrt to Powell before the 2000 election?)

	05-02-2004 02:37									#68
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quote: GHW Bush, Nixon, Johnson, Truman, Coolidge....... Not exactly a dead end job.

If we take out those who have taken over when the President dies (Johnson, Teddy Roosevelt, Truman, Andrew Johnson) and after the passage of the amendment which makes the Prez and VP a ticket, three out of how many Presidents is considered usually?

Unless you think they are counting on Kerry to get killed?

	05-02-2004 02:41									#69
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Graham would probably carry Florida. He is very popular here.

	05-02-2004 02:44									#70
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Lieberman as Sec. of State?

Meh. He doesn't exactly fire people up.

But there is one guy people get really excited about--Colin Powell.


Hear me out on this. Powell is what is derisively referring to in many circles as a RINO--Republican in name only. It is one of the worst kept secrets in government that he has been at odds with the rest of the Administration over a number of issues. There has been much speculation of whether he would return for a second term with Bush. However, he might--a very small chance, but a chance all the same--be amenable to serving as Sec. of State under a Democratic admin that would be more likely to share his foreign policy views. Or Sec. of Defense.

I also wouldn't be the least bit shocked to see John McCain offered a high-level cabinet post in a Kerry administration.

	05-02-2004 02:52									#71
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark General thoughts Wild card - the economy - signs of growth - employment often lags - strong employment growth by 3rd quarter could impact things.

Well, while growht in the third quarter was strong, growth in the fourth quarter, while there, as not nearly as strong. The economy has to grow at unprecedented rates to make up for the job loses.

quote: Kerry - can he make the case to the center that he has a plan for building democracy in Iraq and the region in general. (I think he should promise to make Lieberman his Sec of State - didnt Bush make that promise wrt to Powell before the 2000 election?)

Lieberman has no base of support to bring to the table. Powell was beating Bush in the polls back 1999. Liberman ran, and failed.

	05-02-2004 02:57									#72
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quote: However, he might--a very small chance, but a chance all the same--be amenable to serving as Sec. of State under a Democratic admin that would be more likely to share his foreign policy views.

Not a chance, Guy. Not a chance. If Powell was amenable to serving in a Dem administration, Clinton would have swooped him up (he was trying as well).

	05-02-2004 03:04									#73
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: The other southern candidates are not as strong in terms of secondary support, that Edwards has. That's because he's the only one running. Here is a partial list of the Southern Democrat Senators retiring this year: Bob Graham - FLA John Breaux - LA Zell Miller - GA Fritz Hollings - SC I think Breaux or Miller would be a great pick for Kerry. They are both conservative southern Dems who have experience (especially Miller) and are wildly popular in their home states and in the South. MUCH more so than Edwards.

IF a Big Big IF, Kerry could persuade Miller as VP, Kerry would be a lock. All of a sudden the Bush South lock is broken wide open.

I do however doubt Zell would agree to be VP.

OTOH, if Bush talked Cheney out of a second go 'round and drafted Rudy J. as his VP, he would have a much more solid chance in the North east.

	05-02-2004 03:30									#74
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quote: Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe OTOH, if Bush talked Cheney out of a second go 'round and drafted Rudy J. as his VP, he would have a much more solid chance in the North east.

Nah, people in NYC still remember rudy before 9/11. His image as a saint is large in upstate NY perhaps, and outside on NYC. Sure, he is still popular int eh tri-satte area due to 9/11, but he could not bring Bush any states. Certainly not NY or NJ.

	05-02-2004 04:31									#75
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Edwards is definitely Kerry's best choice. He's obviously an incredible campaigner (as was emphatically not the case with Lieberman in 2000), connects really well with ordinary people and the backbone of the Democratic Party with his working class background and his focus on poverty. And the NC appeal also carries to vital places like WV and Ohio.

Graham would be an interesting pick as well, insuring the win of Florida.

Breaux is a possibility, but probably wouldn't be enough to carry Louisiana, so might not be worth it (being not a particularly interesting candidate). Miller is similar WRT Georgia, and is an insult to the left by picking the leader of the Democrats for Bush movement, a recipe to depress votes.

quote: I think he should promise to make Lieberman his Sec of State

Why do you say that? He's obviously seen as out of step with mainstream Democratic foreign policy; and as the incredible turnout at the primaries have demonstrated, getting your base excited enough to vote is what will win the election.

	05-02-2004 04:57									#76
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quote: Nah, people in NYC still remember rudy before 9/11. His image as a saint is large in upstate NY perhaps, and outside on NYC. Sure, he is still popular int eh tri-satte area due to 9/11, but he could not bring Bush any states. Certainly not NY or NJ.

His appeal would go beyond that. Higher up in New England and in the Great Lakes people still love Rudy as the 'guy who cleaned up New York' and, of course, 'Mayor Hero' (TM).

	05-02-2004 06:19									#77
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quote: Originally posted by randomturn Jimmytrick, in general: With regard to Bush getting 400 electoral college votes, I'll bet you $1,000 right now that doens't happen. Barring the capture of OBL, I'll be amazed if Bush wins at all, given his record on jobs, health care, the defecit, the size and spending of his government, education, the environment, immigration, and his open patronage of corporations and the ultra-wealthy. If there's a blow-out, it's more likely to be against the Reps rather than for them.

If Kerry is the nominee I put $2,000 on Bush to get 370 or more electoral votes. If Ming agrees to hold the money.

The whole $2k to Ming within 10 days of the nomination.

Game?

	05-02-2004 06:42									#78
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: Miller has endorsed Bush for president. Makes it kinda unlikely, I think. That was before the primary. Think of the coup! Miller endorsed Bush, but now realizes Kerry is better. After all, you once had a veep who refered to his President's economic plan as 'voodoo economics'.

Two problems:

1. (the biggie) Miller has to actually "realize" that Kerry is better than Bush.
2. You'll have people who'll say "I'm torn between Miller and Bush, but even Miller said that the the Bush would make a good president, too".

	05-02-2004 06:52									#79
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The bottom line with Miller (and its been Lieberman's problem the whole time) is why vote for Bush Lite when you can have the real thing? If the democrats try to act like republicans in order to gain a southern state they will lose and lose big. This is the lesson of the 2000 election. The only reason more people didn't vote for Nader was the scare tactics and arm twisting of the dems in the final days of the campaign. Rule number one in politics is don't alienate your base.

jon.

	05-02-2004 06:53									#80
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quote: If the democrats try to act like republicans in order to gain a southern state they will lose and lose big. This is the lesson of the 2000 election.

The Dems DID NOT LOSE BIG! They almost won. A better campaigner at the top of the ticket, and they would have won it.

	05-02-2004 06:56									#81
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui The Dems DID NOT LOSE BIG! They almost won. A better campaigner at the top of the ticket, and they would have won it.

You could probably say that about any election.

	05-02-2004 07:00									#82
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I meant marginally better... not like Mondale to Clinton better.

	05-02-2004 07:05									#83
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Why is jimmytrick handing out free money?

	05-02-2004 07:17									#84
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It's jimmytrick... nuff said.

	05-02-2004 07:40									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Guynemer Why is jimmytrick handing out free money?

We are compassionate conservatives.

I offer one thousand points of light to brighten your day.

	05-02-2004 07:43									#86
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If only I had one thousand points of light to wager.

	05-02-2004 09:07									#87
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quote: Originally posted by jimmytrick If Kerry is the nominee I put $2,000 on Bush to get 370 or more electoral votes. If Ming agrees to hold the money. The whole $2k to Ming within 10 days of the nomination. Game?

Your arrogance is so great, I can smell it from my apartment.

	05-02-2004 09:10									#88
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I'd take jimmytrick's bet, but I don't have $2000 (not that I'd ever have to pay up...)

	05-02-2004 09:37									#89
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I seriously doubt we'll see Miller. Too conservative to be asked, to conservative to accept.

Richardson is a fantastic suggestion. Bush is gonna be relying heavily on picking up more hispanic voters, if the Dems get a hispanic (though I never would have guessed it if people didn't keep saying it) as Veep, the Dems will totally undercut Bush. Plus strength in southwest swing states would be huge.

Edwards would be good, but I am not confident at all he'd accept the position. I'm amazed he is 50 though, he looks under 40.

Any other popular governors Kerry could tap? Penn's governor maybe? To hopefully get Ohio and WV?

But then again lets examine Bush's choice for Veep in 2000. No one could have predicted that. Dick Cheney was off everyone's radar, and he was from Wyoming. Wyoming as as much a Republican lock as anything. So geography isn't always the reason for a pick. Bush was worried about charges of inexperience, so picked a long standing veteran to strengthen the ticket.

The best way to find out who the Veep will be is to determine some of Kerry's weaknesses. Being from the northeast is just one, but not the only one.

Northeastern
Washington insider
liberal
Little executive experience
elite
hazy policy record over his Senate term

in fact let me repeat "elite" he is winning the primaries now cause he appears presidential, but up against good ol' boy, charismatic Bush, Kerry is gonna get hammered for being a plastic, east coast elite. He may not be robot Al Gore, but he is damn far from Clinton. Bush is gonna paint him as detached from the people, stuck in Washington too long, out of touch with America, etc. This is gonna be Kerry's big weakness, he is gonna need a Veep to address this.

In light of that... I suppose Edwards really is the best choice. Damn, he is screwed if he can't get Edwards, and in a damn nice spot if he does.

Who else compliments his weaknesses?

	05-02-2004 09:48									#90
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quote: I'm amazed he is 50 though, he looks under 40.

Doesn't he though? He looks like he is 39 or something.

quote: Penn's governor maybe?

I don't think Rendell will go for it in his first term. He may wish to fix up the state and I think Kerry doesn't want to go for a Northeasterner.

quote: Who else compliments his weaknesses?

The problem is Southern governors were swept out in the 2002 elections. Barnes of GA or the old Dem governor in SC would have been great, especially since they were for taking down the Confederate flag, which will be good for the base, even if they are fairly conservative in other aspects. That could have been nice... but not anymore.