10-02-2004 15:35									#61
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Well if we're getting into the paranoiac spirit of things then I'm going to plump for:

Skanky Burns (always seems to survive for a while in these games) and ADG (for the hell of it)

	10-02-2004 15:37									#62
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Damn... doesn't seem like I will be surviving for long in the next game

	10-02-2004 16:06									#63
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Its just predictions, not the real voting patterns. Everyone will just docpile Pave again.

-Jam

	10-02-2004 16:09									#64
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Were the votes for Jamski and Rah just practices or are they real ones?

	10-02-2004 16:12									#65
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Who voted for me and rah? Sure it wasn't Sweepstake tips?

(coming soon - the sweepstake sweepstake. Predict who will win the sweepstake)

-Jam

	10-02-2004 16:16									#66
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Er, Skanky and ADG.

When will the real voting start?

	10-02-2004 16:20									#67
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Just a minute... I need to send the GM a pm soon

Soon

	10-02-2004 16:21									#68
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HOW suspicious do you want to be?

-Jam

	10-02-2004 16:25									#69
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If I was the mafia then shouldn't I have received a PM by now?

	10-02-2004 16:30									#70
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quote: Originally posted by Jamski Who voted for me and rah? Sure it wasn't Sweepstake tips? (coming soon - the sweepstake sweepstake. Predict who will win the sweepstake) -Jam

I thought you voted for each other.

	10-02-2004 16:31									#71
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Also I predict Jamski will win the sweepstake.

	10-02-2004 16:37									#72
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Surely most people wil predict themselves to win the sweepstake, else why did they vote as they did? Unless the option they wanted was taken already, I suppose?

	10-02-2004 16:53									#73
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No it's a rational hedge in the face of uncertainty. Since it's random you don't bet on yourself for the sweepstake sweepstake, you bet on someone else to spread risk.

	10-02-2004 16:58									#74
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Actually no. You spread risk, so you are twice as likely to win half the prize. The expectation is still the same, presuming all people have the same probability. There is no benefit to going for someone else's picks.

	10-02-2004 17:00									#75
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quote: Originally posted by CapitanGarlic The bastard.

You've got the right attitude though.

	10-02-2004 17:08									#76
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Mafia Sweepstake: Ghengis and Skanky.

	10-02-2004 17:16									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Drogue Actually no. You spread risk, so you are twice as likely to win half the prize. The expectation is still the same, presuming all people have the same probability. There is no benefit to going for someone else's picks.

Considering the benefit of winning is most likely going to be bragging rights, "twice the chance of half the reward" can be simplified to "twice the chance".

	10-02-2004 17:28									#78
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"Bye, see you tomorrow!", HongHu said as she left the inn. Guynemer simply nodded in reply.

It was late, and he was the only person left at the inn. Everyone had already gone home or is at Skanky's pub.
He locked his door, switched off the lights and made his way upstairs.

As he was about to switch on the lights upstairs he felt a sudden pain in his chest.

The entire village gathered to see what was going on. Deputy Jon Miller was already at the scene. Guynemer's body had been strung up on the flag staff of his inn with a bayonet stuck in his his heart.

DrSpike climbed a ladder to study the body. Sheriff Tassadar had finally arrived and climbed another ladder.

As people looked on, the mayor was talking to Jon Miller about this tragedy in his village, HongHu was crying inside the inn, being comforted by Father Pave and some other villagers.
Spiffor retreated to his office. He had something to write about now.

It is now day.

Living
Name	Vote		Name	Vote
ADG	N/A		Drogue	N/A
Skanky Burns	N/A		Kassiopeia	N/A
DrSpike	N/A		Rah	N/A
Pave	N/A		Comrade Tassadar	N/A
Jamski	N/A		MattH	N/A
Alva	N/A		Vlad Antlerkov	N/A
Spaced Cowboy	N/A		Vovan	N/A
Spiffor	N/A		Frozzy	N/A
GhengisFarb	N/A		Hercules	N/A
Jonny	N/A		Duke o' York	N/A
CapitanGarlic	N/A		HongHu	N/A
Jon Miller	N/A
Dead
Name	Cause of Death		Name	Cause of Death
Guynemer	Mafia (R1)
Village Status			Votes
Day			1) N/A

	10-02-2004 17:28									#79
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Wow!

A moidur!
Good timing O mafioso.

Guynemer's loss leaves a great hole at the heart of the community and we at Duke's bakery would like to extend our condolences to his family and friends. To his former colleague HongHu, then please do not hesitate to express your grief.
In fact, the expression of grief in the whole village would certainly be made less embarrassing for all by a few drinks on the house....

Who would have a bayonet though? An ex-soldier? I failed the medical for national service, but I'll bet a few of the men of the village didn't! Who still kept a souvenir of their service?

Last edited by duke o' york on 10-02-2004 at 17:35

	10-02-2004 17:36									#80
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quote: Originally posted by Skanky Burns Considering the benefit of winning is most likely going to be bragging rights, "twice the chance of half the reward" can be simplified to "twice the chance".

I don't think they're be much bragging rights for picking the winner of the sweepstakes, more for picking the mafia. I'm not sure we're even doing a sweepstakes sweepstake.

	10-02-2004 17:44									#81
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****ing hell

	10-02-2004 17:52									#82
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quote: Originally posted by Skanky Burns Considering the benefit of winning is most likely going to be bragging rights, "twice the chance of half the reward" can be simplified to "twice the chance".

Nice to see someone was paying attention.

There would be no insurance market at all if everyone functioned on expected value. They don't.....they are usually slightly risk averse, as here, and there is a benefit to hedging.

But anyway, as you say Drogue, it's just Jamski's little joke anyway.

	10-02-2004 17:55									#83
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I hope that we don't have too many funerals in the near future - catering for more funerals will keep me up all night!

	10-02-2004 18:00									#84
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My vote goes to duke o' york, mainly for this:

quote: Originally posted by duke o' york Wow! A moidur! Good timing O mafioso.

And the smilies at the end of his last post (the wink and cute smilies after talking about funerals). And because It's the first round and there really isn't many clues yet.

	10-02-2004 18:10									#85
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THE VILLAGE CLARION

Exclusive!
Rah and HongHu: Sweet Love or Basic Instinct?

After a long and difficult investigation, our team has finally found the evidence about the last events shaking the village.
The shocking truth is that our Mayor, RAH, has been revealed as the illegitimate lover of HongHu.

For some time now, HongHu has brought the Sun on our village, making each day brighter with her smile. But it didn't take long for some Hawks to prey on her innocence.

These days, the regulars at Guynemer's could see HongHu's wonderful smile didn't have the same feel. We can all agree it seemed sour, forced.

You don't need to look further than RAH to understand the cause of this. Indeed, our mayor got his claws on the poor woman. Our beloved HongHu could be hoping for love in our village. She only found brutality in his dreadful hand.

By his own admission, RAH "knocked her up", showing, if not bragging, that he considers our sweet dove as a mere toy. He even had the gall to give reasons for such behaviour.
"Someone had to it" said he. Yes, he was the only one of us cynical enough to be that brutal, that unconsiderate with her. We, at the Village Clarion, cannot understand how a prominent personality such as our mayor can dare call a young lady "kind of wimpy".

HongHu, presumably despaired by her relationship, was unavailable for comment.

	10-02-2004 18:12									#86
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I realise that I can't change your vote now, but I'd just like to point out that I was spamming, er posting in the same discussion that you were regarding Skanky's assessment of the worth of bragging rights, when I spotted the report from Zopp. I edited the rubbish I'd already typed and made it more up to date. That's why it said wow.
I'm tempted to vote for you in a tit for tat Drogue, but I'm going for Skanky because he's always behaving suspisciously, and was always looking dismissively at my baking knives, as if he had something far better at home.
I also promise that, should I last beyond today, I shall cut out the daft posts.

	10-02-2004 18:21									#87
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It takes a strong man to hang a body that hight up...

Jon just happened to be
first at the scene of the crime ey..hmmm

	10-02-2004 18:29									#88
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If I were the mafia, how could I have been serving people in my bar at the time the murder was comitted? Ghengis Farb is most likely the killer, what with his strong build and his near-infinite access to metal which he could shape into a bayonet.

	10-02-2004 18:32									#89
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quote: Originally posted by duke o' york I realise that I can't change your vote now, but I'd just like to point out that I was spamming, er posting in the same discussion that you were regarding Skanky's assessment of the worth of bragging rights, when I spotted the report from Zopp. I edited the rubbish I'd already typed and made it more up to date. That's why it said wow.

Sorry, I had to vote for someone, and thought that looked a little too eager!

quote: Originally posted by duke o' york I also promise that, should I last beyond today, I shall cut out the daft posts.

I wouldn't. Daft posts make Mafia what it is

	10-02-2004 18:32									#90
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Good point.

GhengisFarb troughly is a valid candidate.