08-07-2004 18:27									#91
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quote: Originally posted by Mordoch If you read the article about that airbase under a mountain again, you'll note that the steel reinforced doors covering the entrance tunnel are supposed to withstand even a nuclear blast. Even if it can't withstand a direct blast, if the weapon is off even slightly, all its probably going to do is collapse that entrance. Taiwan has multiple entrances into each airbase. They actually have a total of two airbases build under mountains, which can't even be taken out easily through the use of nuclear weapons.

I would assume thought the runways outside will be sort of damaged by a nuclear blast.

Besides, the fact the Chinese were using nukes would up the ante gigantically- whether for the good or the bad in terms of Chinese world standing, I don't know.

On the blockade- the Chinese could probably do it well enough outside the range of Taiwan's missiles- more importantly, the very fact a blockade was on would discourage significant amounts of trade from even thinking of going- after all, there is nothing really that Taiwan makes that can;t be had anywhere else.

	08-07-2004 19:48									#92
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Again it's too hard. Taiwan has way too many anti-ship missles that they could pick off any ship that gets close enough to enforce a blockade. Attrition is the only way, and that's assuming the US and/or Japan doesn't resupply. If Taiwan gets a resupplier of antiship missles China can never beat them. It is the equivalent of Constantinople and Switzerland.

Does China focus on surface ships to enforce the blockade? They can use Surface to surface missile, and aircraft, and subs. With the missile and the aircraft they can attack port facilities as well as shipping.

As for the Taiwanese antiship missiles, the Chinese can use their missiles and aircraft to attack the launchers, missile stockpiles, etc.

No, AFAIK, IF there is no US intervention, and IF the Chinese were to go ahead despite the political repercussions (including on Chinese trade) it would be very hard for Taiwan to survive (and the blockade probably doesnt have to be 100% effective to inflict enough pain to get Taiwan to accept some HK style compromise)

So it all depends on the political circumstances. IF Taiwan doesnt push further toward De Jure independence, then the difficulties of the attack, the risks of US intervention, and the political/trade costs are probably adequate deterrent.

	08-07-2004 19:49									#93
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I would assume thought the runways outside will be sort of damaged by a nuclear blast. Besides, the fact the Chinese were using nukes would up the ante gigantically- whether for the good or the bad in terms of Chinese world standing, I don't know. On the blockade- the Chinese could probably do it well enough outside the range of Taiwan's missiles- more importantly, the very fact a blockade was on would discourage significant amounts of trade from even thinking of going- after all, there is nothing really that Taiwan makes that can;t be had anywhere else.

It would take some time to replace the memory chip plants IIUC.

	08-07-2004 20:06									#94
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A blockade could end up being two way. There are a couple of Taiwanese held islands that are practically in the harbor of some southeast Chinese cities.

	08-07-2004 20:17									#95
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quote: Originally posted by Mordoch Actually Taiwan has a shitload of anti-shipping missiles. The current total is well over 2,000, and some of the major ones are domesticly produced, so Taiwan can almost certainly build more if need even with a blockade ongoing. Taiwan also recognizes the fact that with China as a threat, you can never have too many anti-shipping missiles to deal with an ampibious invasion. China is likely to run out of warships before Taiwan runs out of anti-shipping missiles. China can use their submarines, but Taiwan retains some ASW capabilities, which are being bolstered by the future aquisition of 4 Kidd Class Destroyers and some P3 Orion patrol planes. The other obvious problem with a blockade is it gives the US plenty of time to react, and if the US commits its sub and surface forces to ASW work, the mostly rather obsolete Chinese subfleet is going to be submerged permantly.

US intervention changes everything - ASW, air superiority, cruise missile and stealth attacks on Chinese Surface to surface missile bases, air bases, etc.

Without the US though ..... Taiwanese ASW certainly helps, but the destoyers and the Orions will certainly be under attack as well. The real battle will be control of the air. China trying to disable Taiwanese airbases, and Taiwan replying in kind. Once one side attains air superiority, theres a great deal it can do to deal with missile and naval threats. IIUC, without US intervention Taiwans airforce has lots of problems with the qualitatively inferior but numerically superior Chinese air force, PLUS the surface to surface missiles. Once China has air superiority, its target practice on the Orions. Things get worse and worse from there.

	08-07-2004 20:21									#96
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China's airforce is decimated and it loses what little power projection capability it has.

	08-07-2004 20:44									#97
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quote: Originally posted by Smiley A blockade could end up being two way. There are a couple of Taiwanese held islands that are practically in the harbor of some southeast Chinese cities.

So? That they are so close means that China has the ability to neutralize those islands instantly-if just with simple shellfire. Those Islands are really undefensible if China is willing to take them.

	08-07-2004 20:59									#98
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quote: Originally posted by GePap So? That they are so close means that China has the ability to neutralize those islands instantly-if just with simple shellfire. Those Islands are really undefensible if China is willing to take them.

In any case China has other ports. Notably Hong Kong and Shanghai.

	09-07-2004 11:39									#99
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Those Islands are really undefensible if China is willing to take them.

They tried once or twice.

	09-07-2004 11:45									#100
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Does China focus on surface ships to enforce the blockade? They can use Surface to surface missile, and aircraft, and subs. With the missile and the aircraft they can attack port facilities as well as shipping. As for the Taiwanese antiship missiles, the Chinese can use their missiles and aircraft to attack the launchers, missile stockpiles, etc.

Chinese aircraft wouldn't be able to get through Taiwan's air defense so that rules them out.

As for their surface to surface missles I don't have that much faith that they are accurate enough to hit Taiwan launchers, especially considering the launchers are probably well protected and have countermeasures surrounding them.
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	09-07-2004 16:25									#101
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quote: Originally posted by Saras They tried once or twice.

Back in the 1950's when the US was willing to fight for those tiny outposts. Which means the Chinese were much less capable back then and the costs would have been high. neither is true today- I doubt the US would commit much force to protect anything other than the Island of Taiwan itself.

	09-07-2004 18:59									#102
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China will never mess with Taiwan. If they were going too they would do it now. Or at least now is when they should - with the US all over kicking butt.

But, what if China did try something? And what if they failed? Due to (again) the US kicking some azz (which would be what ends up happening). After a US ass beating, the leadership in china today might find it a little hard to hold on to power. Would they want to risk that??? just over taiwan??? i think china is %100 bark - 0% bite. And even the bark seems a bit weak as of late.

	09-07-2004 23:14									#103
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Back in the 1950's when the US was willing to fight for those tiny outposts. Which means the Chinese were much less capable back then and the costs would have been high. neither is true today- I doubt the US would commit much force to protect anything other than the Island of Taiwan itself.

While there are a couple of Islands next to China that are probably indefensible, there are ones a bit further away but not too close to Taiwan, which are far tougher targets. These islands are out of Mainland China regular artillery range and have anti-aircraft missile and anti-shipping missile installations along with powerful artillery and significant amount of infantry garrisoning the Islands. By trying to take them, China still risks US intervention for little return on its own. US naval intervention would still be enough to ensure that the attempted invasion of these islands would be a failure.

	10-07-2004 09:45									#104
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I seriously doubt the US would risk war for any outlying Taiwanese possesions whatsoever.

	10-07-2004 10:11									#105
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I seriously doubt the US would risk war for any outlying Taiwanese possesions whatsoever.

China is still risking US intervention for a minor gain. Its also not as simple as the US knowing that China will stop at a couple of islands, it may be the oppening stages of a fullscale invasion of Taiwan from the US's perspective. The US could start reacting well before it becomes sufficiently clear how limited China's objectives are. Regardless of US intervention, China also still needs to deal with Taiwan's air and Naval forces along with the ground defense which could lead to a large number of casualties. How the Chinese population reacts to large numbers of casualties for what is in the short term just a couple of small islands while Taiwan remains independant is also a question China's political leadership would have to worry about.