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SnowFire
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New York City, NY
Jan 1970 time: 00:35
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Oh, by the way, I ran the code to see the probabilities on Mafia games. These are baseline stats, if the clues are totally unhelpful and the villagers vote functionally randomly (on the other hand, the Mafia also kills randomly, so he can't seek out their rival Mafia and aim for 'em).
code:
Chance #M #V
36.6% 2 24
38.0% 2 22
39.9% 2 20
41.8% 2 18
47.2% 3 21
45.5% 3 23
These were running, oh, 100,000 games or so each to get those percentages.
So, even if the GM is totally unhelpful, the Mafia still only wins 2/5 times, roughly. A double Mafia win should only happen around 1-2% of the time (I ran that too). This implies that clues should be evil and well-hidden to make things interesting.
By the way, the scale of the game doesn't seem to matter much; it sliiiightly increases the chances of the Mafia, but what matters most is the proportion. F'instance, 1 mafia / 11 villagers gives 36.7% chance of mafia victory (easily calculated by hand; this is an easy case); you see above that 2/22 gives 38.0%. Even 20/220 only gives 39.8% chance of mafia victory (that's gonna be a long game, I might add).
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Hercules
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in Tir Na Og
Sep 2002 time: 05:35
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quote: Originally posted by Kalius
I'll be a place filler. If I'm not banned. |
Kalius: I think you are an unreliable player, with a history of late and missed postings in recent games, at crucial moments. If I was a GM I wouldn't allow you in the game.
Nothing personal. But I feel new players in games like this should be alerted about you and 'the not missed' NuclearMaster's, spoiling posting record.
OTOH maybe I have got you all wrong.
Last edited by Hercules on 27-08-2004 at 07:24
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