08-12-2004 11:24									#91
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Until the California real estate market crashes. Seriously, how long can such growth be sustained?

50 years and counting.

	08-12-2004 11:24									#92
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I was rebutting the statement that reitrees would get out of RE, when they never really do... REITs give a rather steady yield, which is what a reitred person wants.

	08-12-2004 11:54									#93
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quote: Originally posted by el freako Also investing in housing for your retirement is a bad strategy because when the baby boomers retire together there will be a large influx of people trading-down, selling investment properties and letting such properties out.

Perhaphes in most of the country but in California we have a relatively high birth rate and a low age population plus we remain the largest state to recieve immigration. Thus our population continues to rise but the supply of new houses continues to go down due to ever tightening eviromental laws. Nearly half of the "new" developments in San Diego are redevelopment projects in existing urban areas. Meaning old single family homes in run down areas like the East Village (which used to be truly blighted) are converted into new multiuse high rises.

Multiuse means the the first story is used as office or retail space while the other four stories are used for apartments or condos with underground parking beneith the building. Thus the supply of single family homes is actually decreasing while the population demanding single family homes is increasing. I'm on the right side of the demographic trend in this one.

BTW rents are averaging a 8% raise per year which doesn't cover everything for the first few years but after three years or so you should show a monthly net profit from rents. Also as the value of the home rises your costs don't rise as you still only owe the remaining cost of the intial loan. You don't get access to the capital until you sell or refinance but it's still increasing your net worth and is a good way to fund a good chunk of retirement.

	08-12-2004 11:54									#94
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quote: Originally posted by Japher I was rebutting the statement that reitrees would get out of RE, when they never really do... REITs give a rather steady yield, which is what a reitred person wants.

Ok, that's true.

	08-12-2004 18:38									#95
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Perhaphes in most of the country but in California we have a relatively high birth rate and a low age population plus we remain the largest state to recieve immigration.

Well California is the largest state by population so you would expect that - how does california compare with other states when using immigrants/population?

quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Thus our population continues to rise but the supply of new houses continues to go down due to ever tightening eviromental laws.

Well being on the right side of a government buggered-up market will certainly help you reap unusual profits.

quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Thus the supply of single family homes is actually decreasing while the population demanding single family homes is increasing. BTW rents are averaging a 8% raise per year

Well be carefull, it sounds like housing costs are outpacing incomes - and that situation is not sustainable long-term.
How much of the property market is driven by people such as yourself who are using this as a retirement vehicle? and what will happen to prices when they have finished making their investments?

quote: Originally posted by Oerdin You don't get access to the capital until you sell or refinance but it's still increasing your net worth and is a good way to fund a good chunk of retirement.

Well be aware that a lot of other baby-boomers have the same idea as you, when they start to sell up then prices are likely to fall - of course if you plan to live off the rental income and leave the property to your descendants then you don't have to worry about that.

	08-12-2004 20:04									#96
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quote: Like it or not we're stuck.

That's BS. We have wide freedom of movement to help ameliorate this problem right now.

	08-12-2004 20:48									#97
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia well i want my own money. i worked for it, so i deserve it. isnt this america? will america keep its promise to me?

Your money? what the hell are you talking about?

When you begin to work you know beforehand you will have to pay payroll taxes-the money that was taken was never going to be "your money" in the first place.

I find it rather crazy to claim as your money you were never entitled to get in the first place.

	08-12-2004 20:50									#98
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quote: Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe Krugman has the credentials but also the hate of the current admin to make me question almost everything he writes. Partisan doesn't begin to describe him. Edit - Damn need to read to the end of the thread. What Drake said.

Says someone who quotes from the National Review or the WSJ Editorial page and other such rags

Krugman is partisan- so what? Unless you can challenge the numbers, you got no case.

	08-12-2004 21:11									#99
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Krugman dances around the issue a lot, so if you don't read carefully, you will be misled about what he is really saying.

quote: Privatizing Social Security - replacing the current system, in whole or in part, with personal investment accounts - won't do anything to strengthen the system's finances.

It won't strengthen the Social Security system's finances, but it will strengthen our collective retirement finances.

quote: If anything, it will make things worse.

The "things" he is talking about is solely the Social Security system. Not our retirement finances in general. By replacing the system, our federal debt might go up (we're paying on this at 3% real), but our gains will go up too (our accounts will be paid 5.5% real or whatever).

quote: Nonetheless, the politics of privatization depend crucially on convincing the public that the system is in imminent danger of collapse, that we must destroy Social Security in order to save it.

This is a strawman, because the reformers want to replace the Social Security system with a system designed to more adequately finance retirement. They neither want to "save" nor "destroy" the Social Security system.

	08-12-2004 21:15									#100
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quote: Originally posted by DanS It won't strengthen the Social Security system's finances, but it will strengthen our collective retirement finances.

The Bush plans creates major problems for the U.S. economy, it will leave poor people worse off, it creates massive problems in the future. and there's no pressing need to change the Social Security system.

	08-12-2004 21:18									#101
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quote: The Bush plans creates major problems for the U.S. economy

How so?

quote: it will leave poor people worse off

How so?

	08-12-2004 21:22									#102
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Lawrence:

quote: half a million plus my property that i can sell in the city for a few million (real estate always goes up)

huh? real estate in the city always goes up? it's been falling dramatically for the past 50+ years. and that's not even mentioning the inverse relationship between real estate values and property taxes. In a city like Philadelphia, real estate values have been plumeting continuously for decades in all but the gentrifying neighbourhoods all while property taxes have been raised to restore the balance.

	08-12-2004 21:37									#103
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quote: Originally posted by Albert Speer In a city like Philadelphia,

You keep forgetting that Philly is a pit.

	08-12-2004 21:42									#104
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Reasl Estate values in NYC are through the roof.

Average cost of a new apartment in Manhattan is 1 million dollars. The Median is probably around 800,000, thought that number I am not sure about.

	08-12-2004 21:43									#105
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i assume Baltimore, Detriot, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Oakland, etc. all face similiar problems as Philadelphia.

And Manhatten, Gepap? you're mentioning Manhatten? apples and oranges. of course there's some gentrifying or already wealthy areas where real estate values continually rise but for much of america, real estate has been plummeting for decades.

	08-12-2004 21:47									#106
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I think it depends a lot on the city. DC city real estate has gone up rather substantially.

	08-12-2004 21:55									#107
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quote: Originally posted by Albert Speer i assume Baltimore, Detriot, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Oakland, etc. all face similiar problems as Philadelphia.

Detroit definately. Baltimore? [i]possibly, but I hear it's making a comeback.

Chicago, Dallas, Houstan, are you outta your freakin' mind? Those markets are hot, Hot, HOT!

Don't know about Oakland.

Face it, Speery, Philly is a pit. It isn't a typical American city.

	08-12-2004 21:56									#108
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quote: Originally posted by Albert Speer i assume Baltimore, Detriot, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Oakland, etc. all face similiar problems as Philadelphia. And Manhatten, Gepap? you're mentioning Manhatten? apples and oranges. of course there's some gentrifying or already wealthy areas where real estate values continually rise but for much of america, real estate has been plummeting for decades.

Real Estate everywhere in NYC is up signifcantly- Manhattan just leads the way, even in the poor neighborhoods of the island.

	08-12-2004 23:25									#109
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quote: huh? real estate in the city always goes up? it's been falling dramatically for the past 50+ years. and that's not even mentioning the inverse relationship between real estate values and property taxes. In a city like Philadelphia, real estate values have been plumeting continuously for decades in all but the gentrifying neighbourhoods all while property taxes have been raised to restore the balance.

even some parts of oakland are up. (east/north Oakland)

	08-12-2004 23:41									#110
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Privatizing retirement funds won't improve anything if your aim is to provide a decent income to the old who don't work anymore.

The rich and the upper-middle class can already save their money to add a very nice extra income by the time they're old. And the poor or lower-middle class won't be able to save what little taxes they pay for SS, meaning they'll spend their old age either at work, or in some charity for impoverished old.

The privatization of retirement funds doesn't restrict the part of the GDP that goes to the old. It just favors leaving the poor out of the system, and the rich to get more money.

	08-12-2004 23:48									#111
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quote: Originally posted by GePap So Krugman is correct: the Social Security System itself is not the problem- its that the past few admins have raided the pension fund to finance their ideas. obviously then the problem is raiding the pansion fund- massive restructuring of the fund, which will be very constly itself, won't actually solve the problem at all, which is Krugman's point.

Krugman is an economist. He understands that leaving assets in the fund is nothing more than draining the economy, and taking those assets out would be nothing more than injecting into the economy. Funds like this are not the same as private funds.

	08-12-2004 23:54									#112
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quote: Originally posted by Lawrence of Arabia of course I'll have money. ill invest the money that goes to SS (10% a year) into the stock market on the lowest performing least risk stocks, and by the time I retire, I can retire an millionaire.

@ libertarians

	08-12-2004 23:59									#113
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quote: Because in it's present incarnation it's a Ponzi scheme.

quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara No one cares.

Nor should they.

	09-12-2004 00:05									#114
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quote: Originally posted by Japher just like everything else though, GePap You'll come up with reputable economist who say everything is alright and I'll come up with reputable economist who say it's the end of the world

No you won't.

quote: all income tax should be elective anyway, everything else should be taxed based on use

:rollyes:

	09-12-2004 00:14									#115
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Moving to private accounts won't change the basic demographic problem. It will just take the assets and liabilities off the government's books and put them onto the people's individual books.

What assets? It's a pay as you go system. Creating assets is going to have consequences. Some people are going to have to go without, so that others can have assets.

quote: There are at least two reasons why it's a good idea to do private accounts anyway. The first is to cushion the impact of the basic demographic problem somewhat, since the private economy pays 2 or 3 percent better per annum on each dollar in saving than does the government. In this sense, part of the extra that you are paying now is to make up for the amount that the government is taking from you by forcing you in to a lower interest rate investment.

What's going to happen to interest rates when all of our social security is invested in the private sector? They will fall. Right not they aren't invested at all. They are used to finance current spending.

quote: The second reason is that a private account will be a huge family asset. If a husband dies, then the widow or their kids will inherit what is in the private account. Research indicates that people see what would become forced retirement savings as an incentive to go to work rather than the current system where social security taxes are seen as a huge disincentive to go to work. There will be ways for poor people to leverage this asset to do things that were previously very difficult for them to do.

Maybe you don't know that widows get their husbands SS, and it doesn't matter how much he has put into it. And what research are you talking about. People work because they have to. Jeez.

	09-12-2004 00:18									#116
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Says someone who quotes from the National Review or the WSJ Editorial page and other such rags Krugman is partisan- so what? Unless you can challenge the numbers, you got no case.

Sorry my ire should have been directed at the rag called the NYT for spotlighting his hackness.

	09-12-2004 00:22									#117
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quote: Originally posted by el freako Well be carefull, it sounds like housing costs are outpacing incomes - and that situation is not sustainable long-term. How much of the property market is driven by people such as yourself who are using this as a retirement vehicle? and what will happen to prices when they have finished making their investments?

So true. Housing costs are definitely outpacing incomes. The California housing market will stablize at best.

	09-12-2004 02:13									#118
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quote: Originally posted by Kidicious @ libertarians

im sorry, im not gonna sit on my ass all day and wait for someone to feed me or take care of me, the same person who can then claim that I owe them something.

	09-12-2004 02:44									#119
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quote: Originally posted by Ogie Oglethorpe Sorry my ire should have been directed at the rag called the NYT for spotlighting his hackness.

When you quote soley from the Christian Science Monitor, I might give a crap.

	09-12-2004 02:46									#120
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CSM

-Arrian