03-03-2005 00:30									#181
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel It's simple multiplication: Even if we use the binary system, where unhappy people equal zero, and happy people equal 1, there is much more utility in a group of 500 people with 50% of them happy, than in a group of 200 people with 100% of them happy. And this gets a whole lot more complex.

So it can be utilitarian to make a proportionately larger number of people unhappy? I thought the idea was to sacrifice the few for the greater whole, not sacrifice the greater whole for the few.

To use your example above; You have society of 200 happy people. As they reproduce, their population reaches 300, but only half of them are happy now. That means the addition of the three hunred new people into their society resulted in 50 more happy people than there was before, and 250 more unhappy people.


That seems to go against everything utilitarianism stands for, from what I understand of it. Is a society where everyone is happy not preferable to a society where only half the people are happy?

	03-03-2005 00:48									#182
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50% of 500 is 250. 100% of 200 is 200. 250>250. QED.

	03-03-2005 00:57									#183
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel 50% of 500 is 250. 100% of 200 is 200. 250>250. QED.

Did you read my post? Respond to what i said, don't just stick your fingers in your ears.

When going from 200 happy people to 250 happy people and 250 unhappy people, you are making a substantially larger number of people unhappy than you are making happy.


And 250 is not greater than 250.


Edit: I see, you meant to say 250 > 200, of course.


But to that I respond; 50% of 500 is 250. 0% of 200 is 200. 250> 0. QED.

A much more substantial difference, i think.

	03-03-2005 01:07									#184
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ahh, well, I see the problem now. You count unhappy people as -1, while I count them as 0.

But neither are true. The cases of lives really not worth living are very rare.

	03-03-2005 01:22									#185
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A question for the low population folk: Do you accept that your desires will result in the extinction of probably 90% of the world's national and ethnic groups? Or will your plans fall disproportionately on large groups like Han Chinese?

It's just that the posters advocating a lower human population strike me as the sort of people who will also advocate protecting minority cultures. But such cultures would be put most at risk by a large population decline.

	03-03-2005 01:28									#186
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Sandman: No. The plans call for it to fall on white people.

	03-03-2005 01:33									#187
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quote: Originally posted by Sandman A question for the low population folk: Do you accept that your desires will result in the extinction of probably 90% of the world's national and ethnic groups? Or will your plans fall disproportionately on large groups like Han Chinese? It's just that the posters advocating a lower human population strike me as the sort of people who will also advocate protecting minority cultures. But such cultures would be put most at risk by a large population decline.

That is an interesting argument. National and ethnic groups wouldn't matter to me - we'll all be one in the end, one way or another. But the cultural aspect is interesting to me.

I suppose, that if population is to decline, it will take a conentrated effort by each individual community and region to reduce it's population and maintain it at a particular level, in that sense, there wouldn't be any extinction of culture or ethnicity, except perhaps in very urbanized regions that are home to numerous cultures. But even then, it's not likely to be a complete extinction because the cultures that inhabit it have homes elsewhere.

	03-03-2005 05:15									#188
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Ss the mean age of China's population ages they will at first enjoy a higher per capita standard of living, then eventually there may be a labor shortage as the population becomes top heavy with the elderly. The obvious solution is that China might be forced to allow immigration of cheap labor. Where will that labor come from? Why India of course! Once the Indian population reaches a certain proportion they will demand civil liberties, et voila, China will become a modern diverse democracy.

	03-03-2005 05:21									#189
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quote: Originally posted by Dr Strangelove Once the Indian population reaches a certain proportion they will demand civil liberties, et voila, China will become a modern diverse democracy.

Wait - civil liberties within India or China?

	03-03-2005 07:12									#190
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quote: Originally posted by General Ludd Wait - civil liberties within India or China?

AFAIK India has one of the best civil liberties records in the world outside of Western Europe and North America, and may in fact have a better record than many of the so-called "developed" countries.

	03-03-2005 08:22									#191
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quote: The trap you're falling into is thinking that the amount of resources is finite. In our era, this is decidedly not the case.

The amount of any resource in our universe is finite. Don't use words if you don't mean them.

	03-03-2005 08:34									#192
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Hmm. Let's test DanS' assumption that our population can continue to expand ad infinitum.

If the world population grew at the US' current natural population growth rate of ~0.6% and assuming an average human mass of 60 kg, in 16 000 years the total mass of human beings would be 1.33*10^53 kg, larger than the mass of the Universe....

	03-03-2005 08:37									#193
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quote: Originally posted by Dr Strangelove AFAIK India has one of the best civil liberties records in the world outside of Western Europe and North America, and may in fact have a better record than many of the so-called "developed" countries.

I strongly doubt that, with the existence of a huge underclass called "the Untouchables."

	03-03-2005 08:46									#194
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It'll only take ~5100 years to match the mass of the Earth and ~7300 to match the whole solar system.

	03-03-2005 08:54									#195
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Meanwhile there are softer limits like the total amount of energy reaching the Earth versus basic caloric needs of the population (2100 years)...

	03-03-2005 09:08									#196
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quote: What do you mean, "as far as it goes?" Do you people not see the environmental devestation around you? Do you honestly think that we can keep growing forever?

Except limits from the laws of physics like KrazyHorse is mentioning, human ingenuity will stretch Mother Nature to provide for us. It has in the past and will in the future.

	03-03-2005 09:13									#197
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I have no doubt that we will be continuing to drill oil wells in 100 years. I also have no doubt, however, that if we are to continue as a species we have to continue slowing down our growth rate.

I just love it when people throw around words like "infinite" without realising how quickly exponential growth gets you to very uncomfortable situations.

	03-03-2005 09:29									#198
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quote: If the world population grew at the US' current natural population growth rate of ~0.6% and assuming an average human mass of 60 kg, in 16 000 years the total mass of human beings would be 1.33*10^53 kg, larger than the mass of the Universe....

Touche. However, I think you'll agree that there's nothing magical about the choice of a .6% per annum growth rate in your scenario, other than to say that the rate will certainly be lower than that, assuming that we can't jump universes.

quote: The amount of any resource in our universe is finite. Don't use words if you don't mean them.

For our purposes here, I think it's sufficient to say that utilization and transportation economics would intrude well before the resource reaches its end, assuming non-stop growth in the use of the resource.

	03-03-2005 09:38									#199
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In the long term, Dan, human growth rates will have to be at or near 0 in large parts of the areas inhabited by human beings. There's nothing magical, as you say, about 0.6%. There's also nothing magical about 0% that would harm most developed economies. There are real reasons why China shouldn't have a significant positive growth rate. They are less developed than the US and yet have a population 4-5 times its size in the same land area. The US can continue to do with population growth for a while yet. The same cannot be said for China. Or India, for that matter.

	03-03-2005 09:42									#200
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Saying that technology will solve all our ills is ingenuous. Technology arrives at a measured pace. Technology is not free. Technology often delivers solutions to problems you don't have while being unable in the short term to solve problems you do have.

We can't assume that we won't progress forward, however we also can't assume that the answers will get here in time to save us from ourselves.

	03-03-2005 09:43									#201
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quote: In the long term, Dan, human growth rates will have to be at or near 0 in large parts of the areas inhabited by human beings.

Sooner or later, but not yet! I'm supremely unconcerned about how my children will cope in 14,000 years.

	03-03-2005 09:46									#202
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Don't be so cavalier. Real problems arise a lot sooner than that. I am highly skeptical of our ability to travel faster than the speed of light, and mass migration on slowships will not be an easy task. We have at most another 1000 years of current growth rates before we will be using the better part of available resources in our solar system to sustain ourselves...

	03-03-2005 09:48									#203
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Human growth on this planet has been explosive in the last 500 years, both in economic and raw population terms. Don't expect that this sort of growth will be the norm for much longer...

	03-03-2005 09:53									#204
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quote: Saying that technology will solve all our ills is ingenuous. Technology arrives at a measured pace. Technology is not free. Technology often delivers solutions to problems you don't have while being unable in the short term to solve problems you do have.

ITYM, disingenuous? In any event, I think the battery of technologies that we have in hand can solve the problems that we have now. You might have to round out the portfolio here and there. That's not to say that our current technology will support us in anything that we want to do (for instance, we might have to stop driving cars or whatever).

quote: We can't assume that we won't progress forward, however we also can't assume that the answers will get here in time to save us from ourselves.

I don't look at technology that way. Basically, I think the population has grown so quickly because human beings can be supported easily enough through our current technologies. Obviously, there is a self-correcting mechanism.

	03-03-2005 10:03									#205
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quote: Originally posted by DanS ITYM, disingenuous?

No, I mean ingenuous. Showing childlike simplicity. Disingenuous would mean that I thought you were trying to trick people by false simplicity.

As for the rest of it, human beings have shown a capability to outbreed themselves. Especially when modernisation arrives quickly and populations are unable to get used to the idea that you no longer have to have as many children as possible in time to rein in the accompanying surge in growth. The US has never been overpopulated. China and India can easily make a claim to being so, given their natural resources and their current level of development. It will be a while yet before India really needs a billion people to live up to its full potential...

	03-03-2005 10:11									#206
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quote: Don't be so cavalier. Real problems arise a lot sooner than that.

I think it's a particular sort of insanity to work yourself up over what will happen 1,000 years from now in anything but a very vague manner. My progeny will manage or they will die, just as all human beings as biological creatures have done throughout history.

But I think rather that they will be living lives materially much better than I am living. They will be equipped with a lot of knowledge of organization, engineering, and technology with which we aren't currently equipped. We're spending a lot of money to make sure that this is the case.

quote: Human growth on this planet has been explosive in the last 500 years, both in economic and raw population terms. Don't expect that this sort of growth will be the norm for much longer...

Economic growth of this sort can continue for an awful long time. As you say, likely the population growth rate will moderate. Right now, the rate is plummeting. The fertility rate has halved in only 50 years. All this even without the self-corrective mechanism having much impact.

quote: It will be a while yet before India really needs a billion people to live up to its full potential..

That time will come very soon for China. Less than a generation away.

	03-03-2005 10:35									#207
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quote: I am highly skeptical of our ability to travel faster than the speed of light, and mass migration on slowships will not be an easy task.

I don't know how you could say anything other than "I don't know if we will be able to travel faster than light." Skepticism implies knowledge that you can't have as somebody schooled in physics during our current primitive era.

	03-03-2005 10:41									#208
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c being a barrier makes a lot of sense, Dan.

Not everything changes with time. Some things which are impossible remain impossible, and special relativity is pretty goddamned solid...

	03-03-2005 10:45									#209
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Hey, it makes a lot of sense. And I will proceed as though c is the barrier. But have some humility. Likely, you know a lot less than you don't know.

	03-03-2005 10:58									#210
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Saying that technology will solve all our ills is ingenuous. Technology arrives at a measured pace. Technology is not free. Technology often delivers solutions to problems you don't have while being unable in the short term to solve problems you do have. We can't assume that we won't progress forward, however we also can't assume that the answers will get here in time to save us from ourselves.

I agree with your advice that we can't afford to behave as if technological solutions to any problem are a given, but I disgree that technology necessarily arrives at a measured pace.

What would happen to the pace of technological progress if information technology (maybe some sort of inventive AI?) begins to appear that can lead to a kind of feedback loop where it can be directly used to design superior versions of itself? I think the only reason this hasn't already happened is that so many of the essential elements of the creative acts of invention and engineering reside in the opaque mysteries of the human brain which acts as a kind of bottleneck in such a feedback loop.

It seems likely that we will shed light on such mysteries in the near future.