02-06-2005 20:02									#61
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25 million accross the world

	03-06-2005 01:56									#62
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quote: Originally posted by Dauphin I'm agreeing with Gepap. 10-20 million deaths would not be difficult for the US to absorb as a state. It would probably have huge consequences on the shape and mentality of the state, but the state would still chug along. How many died in Europe due to influenza in 1918-19? A comparable number I do believe

It would still cause massive economic damage, especially if it was a city like New York that went up.

	03-06-2005 02:07									#63
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I dont think anyones defined collapse clearly.

we lost 3000 people one fine day, and it aggravated the recession. Would the loss of 10 million people, and the city of New York in particular, mean descent to the stone age? No, Gepap is correct. And probably not the collapse of the state either. But an economic depression, quite possibly.

Youre talking about the loss of the stock exchanges, most of the investment banking community, several of the largest commercial banks, and quite a few corp hq, and one of the country's largest ports in one blow. It would take the economy quite some time to adjust to that, and the adjustments would be quite painful.

	03-06-2005 02:11									#64
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Yeah, but honestly? Nobody except New Yorkers would miss New York.

	03-06-2005 02:21									#65
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quote: Originally posted by Dauphin I'm agreeing with Gepap. 10-20 million deaths would not be difficult for the US to absorb as a state. It would probably have huge consequences on the shape and mentality of the state, but the state would still chug along. How many died in Europe due to influenza in 1918-19? A comparable number I do believe

spread across numerous countries, over several months.

The problem is entire firms being lost, all in one day. Every bank in New York goes up in smoke. Who the hell pays off their out of town depositors? The FDIC? Ya think? What happens to firms across the country that have lost their liquid assets? Their insurance? What happens to all the firms that the New York firms owed money too? Youve got a spreading wave of bankruptcies, chaos in the currency markets - I would NOT want to head of the Federal Reserve while this is happening. It will make any recession since 1937 look like a walk in the park.

	03-06-2005 02:23									#66
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For that matter, wouldn't a lot of financial records be lost?

	03-06-2005 02:26									#67
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker For that matter, wouldn't a lot of financial records be lost?

some of thats backed up, I think, but im not sure where.

and considering that a lot of the people who DID know where, and how to get at it would be dead ....

	03-06-2005 02:35									#68
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if we lost all the financial records... it'd be like fight club, nee?

	03-06-2005 02:40									#69
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WW2 saw US GDP rise at over 20% a year. If we are in a situation where 10+ million are dying in the US we are in what can justifiably be termed WW3. Its an irony that the US economy could boon in such a period.

It would depend on circumstance though.

	03-06-2005 02:41									#70
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In WW2 the US didn't actually sustain any damage. In the same time the Soviet Union saw a GDP growth of -20% for at least one year

	03-06-2005 02:45									#71
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Are we assuming the US is going communist now?

	03-06-2005 03:07									#72
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I think it's reasonable to attribute that -20% to war damage and not to communism, since it occured in 1941 IIRC.

	03-06-2005 03:22									#73
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I was being glib.

Seriously though. The UK GDP grew at over 10% despite the major bombings and disruption. German GDP also grew in the build up for war by significant amounts, and certainly did not decline during the war until the end. The main reason the Soviet GDP dropped (and the French for that matter), I would guess, is that they had most of the populated lands invaded, and its not the fact that they were being attacked in and of itself that caused the decline.

If the US were being invaded in this hypothetical scenario then I would agree, the economy would likely suffer, but then the effect of an invasion would be far more devastating than the loss of 10 million lives as originally discussed.

Edit - typo.

Last edited by Dauphin on 03-06-2005 at 03:32

	03-06-2005 03:25									#74
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He sounds like the new MacArthur...

	03-06-2005 03:26									#75
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quote: Originally posted by Bosh The survival of the state is worth killing of 10 million people

Given that the lack of survival of the state is presumably to be imposed by someone a bit lacking in benevolence, quite possibly.

	03-06-2005 03:29									#76
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker I was just wondering in Lancer's thread what the hell we needed 5,000 nukes for anyway. (This is AFTER 5,000 are to be reduced in the next few years).

The fact that a good preemptive first strike might eliminate your ability to deliver about 4500 of them.

	03-06-2005 04:12									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Dauphin I was being glib. Seriously though. The UK GDP grew at over 10% despite the major bombings and disruption. German GDP also grew in the build up for war by significant amounts, and certainly did not decline during the war until the end. The main reason the Soviet GDP dropped (and the French for that matter), I would guess, is that they had most of the populated lands invaded, and its not the fact that they were being attacked in and of itself that caused the decline. If the US were being invaded in this hypothetical scenario then I would agree, the economy would likely suffer, but then the effect of an invasion would be far more devastating than the loss of 10 million lives as originally discussed. Edit - typo.

An invasion would be more devestating than a nuclear strike?

	03-06-2005 04:22									#78
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Jesus... and people have trouble wondering what the mental atmosphere was like when the bureaucrats sat down to plan the holocaust.

It was exactly like this: a calm and detached discussion in complete indifference to the obvious insanity of the whole thing.

	03-06-2005 04:41									#79
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat The fact that a good preemptive first strike might eliminate your ability to deliver about 4500 of them.

Now here is something interesting. With less nukes we need to be on launch on warning, and thus very prone to accidents, because we can not tolerate a first strike. but if we way overbuild on rubble bouncing capacity we can take our stuff down to launch on confirmed and eliminate that possibility.

	03-06-2005 06:40									#80
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The morbid indifference to cost of lives is disturbing.

	03-06-2005 07:09									#81
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quote: Originally posted by Kuciwalker An invasion would be more devestating than a nuclear strike?

That sounds familiar in a WWII sort of way...

	03-06-2005 13:05									#82
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quote: Originally posted by Dauphin German GDP also grew in the build up for war by significant amounts, and certainly did not decline during the war until the end.

It did from 1944 on, also with no core Germany occupied. (Apart from that bit of East Prussia which didn't mean much for our economy)