12-07-2005 04:02									#61
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We know that average hourly wage is almost unchanged. Thus, the new jobs must pay the same as existing jobs. Thus, the number of minimum wage earners remains unchanged as a percentage of workers. I can personally say that I am hiring and the wage is substantially more than minimum wage (in excess of $100,000 per year with incentives).

	12-07-2005 04:13									#62
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I would thank God if it's a Republican successor.

So would he, probably.

	12-07-2005 04:34									#63
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DanS that statistics thing is cool

It would be better if [i]every[i] state had an improvement but this is better than nothing...

	12-07-2005 04:44									#64
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quote: I would thank God if it's a Republican successor. We shall see. Note for the record that I wasn't the one to bring politics into this discussion.

Note for the record that I wasn't the one to bring God into this discussion.

	12-07-2005 05:00									#65
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I admit I did bring Japanese deflation into this discussion. But not-one gives a rat's arse anyway so I guess it's ok.

	12-07-2005 05:13									#66
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The US economy must be doing better than people think. I just told people that I am hiring and willing to pay more than $100,000 per year and no one has asked me about the job.

	12-07-2005 05:34									#67
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It's just that nobody wants to work for you

	12-07-2005 05:58									#68
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Guys, jobs growth is ok, it isn't great, its not terrible, its ok. the problem is that we are gunning the engine so to speak. We should be doing one hell of a lot better then this for the massive amount of stimulus being pumped into the system.

	12-07-2005 06:34									#69
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quote: Originally posted by Asher Canada is 67.2% participation in June 2005...US is 66% in June 2005.

Are those rates strictly comparable?
Does Canada's exclude their prison population for instance (the exclusion of the prison population from the US figure raises participation by 0.6%)

Also you have to look at how the data has changed over time - the US figure has beed stuck in the 66% to 67% range for 17 years whereas for the twenty years previous to that it had been rising. If that rise had continued then the US would have 18 million more jobs today than it actually does.

I guess it's worth attaching one of my spreadsheets to this post.

This shows employment as a percentage of working age population (15-64) a different definition than the US one which uses employment as a percentage of the adult population not in prison.

	12-07-2005 22:14									#70
	Got spare money?

Yesterday afternoon, I tracked down that spreadsheet, which you you posted previously. While I think your calculations have high utility, I maintain my position that it's better to have employment as a percentage of age 15+ rather than a more arbitrary working age population figure. We could argue about whether to account for the prison population, but I feel much less strongly about taking that into account.

	12-07-2005 22:19									#71
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quote: Originally posted by pchang The US economy must be doing better than people think. I just told people that I am hiring and willing to pay more than $100,000 per year and no one has asked me about the job.

Yeh, but you're in CA. It's just too damned expensive to live in CA, despite the fanstastic weather.

BTW, what are these six figure salaried jobs you're handing out?

	12-07-2005 22:37									#72
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quote: Originally posted by Colon Sorry for hijacking the thread Dan, but I can't be arsed to start a new thread about it. I just came across something interesting, namely the Japanese CPI data are adjusted for quality improvements. That's not so shocking on its own, since the same is the case with US CPI data, but it does get interesting if you consider that Japanese purchases on electronics are (substantially?) higher than European or American. At least I assume they are. And electronics tend to improve a lot in quality, even if the actual purchasing costs remain the same. So this makes me wonder how real Japanese deflation really is.

Deflation in Japan is aggravated (if not created) by the interests rates close to Nil for 15 years; It is often forgotten that interests are an item of the cost of products and services; when this item is smaller than before or even desappear, the sale price can be reduced without reducing the gross margin. Then the consumer expect the price to be reduced again, etc.
The case of electronics is different : the price reduction is caused by increase of the volumes manufactured which trigger considerable productivity improvements; this is not deflation.

	12-07-2005 22:39									#73
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quote: Deflation in Japan is aggravated (if not created) by the interests rates close to Nil for 15 years

Uh...actually, low interest rates free up more money supply, which spurs demand, which creates inflation.

	12-07-2005 22:41									#74
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That's econ 101

low interest = cheap borrowing = increased demand = higher prices

When national banks try to lower inflation they raise interest rates and vice versa

	12-07-2005 22:47									#75
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse That's econ 101 low interest = cheap borrowing = increased demand = higher prices When national banks try to lower inflation they raise interest rates and vice versa

The problem ignored by this reasonning is that low interest is different from zero interest. Between zero and the economic minimum of interest rate (which is around the inflation rate), the interest reduction has no effect on the growth but negative effect on the price level.
You can remember that the FED was very cautious about deflation when the rate was around 1%

	12-07-2005 22:48									#76
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quote: The US economy must be doing better than people think. I just told people that I am hiring and willing to pay more than $100,000 per year and no one has asked me about the job.

You're in CA.

	12-07-2005 22:51									#77
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I need sales engineer with experience in the following areas:
http protocols
tcp/ip protocols
wide are networks
client - server applications

in that order

	12-07-2005 22:59									#78
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Have you been finding those positions hard to fill?

	12-07-2005 23:06									#79
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The combination of web applications, plus low level networking has been difficult to find. However, we have just recently come upon a few candidates who appear to be very good fits (1 on the East Coast, 1 on the West Coast, plus 2 guys who previously left that we were able to entice back via consulting contracts).

	12-07-2005 23:11									#80
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Well, good luck to you. That's a very handsome salary for anybody not living in California.

	12-07-2005 23:26									#81
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT The problem ignored by this reasonning is that low interest is different from zero interest. Between zero and the economic minimum of interest rate (which is around the inflation rate), the interest reduction has no effect on the growth but negative effect on the price level. You can remember that the FED was very cautious about deflation when the rate was around 1%

The fed was very cautious about deflation in spite of extremely low interest rates, not because of it.

	12-07-2005 23:32									#82
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse The fed was very cautious about deflation in spite of extremely low interest rates, not because of it.

It was never confirmed in Greenspan reports that it was *in spite*.

	12-07-2005 23:52									#83
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Funny, because at that time the interest rates were actually below inflation rates

If Greenspan was nervous about deflation due to low interest rates then why did he leave them that low for that long (if, as you say, there was no extra benefit to growth in keeping them that low)?

Your reasoning sounds like **** to me, but whatever...

	12-07-2005 23:57									#84
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I suppose you can explain why Greenspan was worried about deflation then.

	13-07-2005 00:07									#85
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Because the US economy was in a recessionary/low growth period which tends to lead to low inflation (as demand is low).

Low interest rates spurred demand, but the effect was not as large as could be hoped, so the risk of deflation remained for quite a while.

	13-07-2005 00:55									#86
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quote: Originally posted by KrazyHorse Because the US economy was in a recessionary/low growth period which tends to lead to low inflation (as demand is low). Low interest rates spurred demand, but the effect was not as large as could be hoped, so the risk of deflation remained for quite a while.

Again a difference : recession is different from low growth.
According to you, the risk of deflation appeared in a low growth period. Is it different from what I said?

	13-07-2005 01:54									#87
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Hey El Freako, you wouldn't happen to have any statistics that show what the share of electronics purchases is in total household-purchases, in Japan as well as other rich countries?

Davout, I'm not talking about the causes of deflation, but about the impact being possibly overstated.

	13-07-2005 01:58									#88
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btw colon, your avatar is cute and all, but the english is wrong on it. its should be 'get out of my way!'

(i woupldlnt have mentioned it but it bugs me everytime i see it!)

	13-07-2005 02:03									#89
	Remove this text

1. Markos made it.

2. The bad English is part of the humour of it.

3. I don't think you should be complaining about other people's bad English.

	13-07-2005 02:07									#90
	Tired of ads?

ok alright, in that case i guess its chill