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Ramo
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Austin, Texas, USA
Oct 1999
time: 23:37
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LOTM - 20,000 or so troops - there are likely to be enough Iraqi troops trained to make that feasible, from what Ive read. |
IIRC, the Times quoted 20-30k. And you have several thousand Brits leaving, with only a couple thousand remaining. Which is quite unfortuante, since IMO Brit troops are the most valuable, since they have fairly realistic ROE for an urban guerilla war as opposed to our batshit crazy ROE (and as opposed to the Iraqis' lack of weapons, supplies, and training).
What makes you say that the Iraqi troop building is adequate?
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Oh, and this is a third world, country, there are going to be problems, and corruption. Especially with a new government. |
I'd like to repeat the most relevant portion of the previous article:
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The contracts under scrutiny total $1.27 billion, nearly equal to the estimated $1.3 billion allocated for the Defense Ministry's budget this year. The money came solely from Iraqi coffers, not from the training budget of the U.S. military or from NATO and foreign donations to Iraq's military.
"There's no rebuilding, no weapons, nothing," said retired Iraqi Lt. Gen. Abdul Aziz al-Yaseri, who worked in the Defense Ministry at the height of the alleged corruption. "There are no real contracts, even. They just signed papers and took the money." |
This isn't your run of the mill third world corruption, but the total looting of Iraq's oil revenue by the politically connected. And this is not just a random gov't program, but the very apparatus necessary to maintain the state.
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LOTM - but Jaafari distanced himself from that proposal. |
And yet, the Constitution may allow other confederations of provinces (albeit limited to a few in a given confederation). And since SCIRI controls most of the provincial gov't's, what Jaafari thinks seem moot.
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LOTM - Hersh again. From what ive read, theres disillusionment with SCIRI, which is why theyre so eager to get a constitution through, since if they dont theyd have to face new elections. |
Disillusionment? In what way? Towards the gov't in general, or SCIRI in particular?
I've heard that SCIRI (as well as Da'wa and the Kurds for that matter) are pushing the Constitution through because fewer boycotts means that their share of the vote is gonna go down. Not only to the Sunnis, but to Sadrists (Sadr is now getting people to register to vote) as well; I think a lot of SCIRI's support came from Sadrists, which will evaporate in the event of his entrance to politics.
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LOTM - Im not sure. It also leads to the next election, which is likely to be the first with massive Sunni Arab participation. I can see arguments for delay, but also good arguments against delay. |
It looks like the Constitution may not pass the referendums if the Sunnis aren't brought back in, bringing us back to square one (IIRC, only three provinces can squash the Constitution). Then there are influential Shia who are strongly opposed to federalism and will campaign against it on that basis (Sadr again is a good example). And who knows what's gonna happen with Islamism (we might see Iran-lite in terms of a set number of high court places going to clerics)...
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17-08-2005 21:35
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