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Spiffor
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CPA - Evil Clone brigade
Nov 2001
time: 06:37
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quote:
Originally posted by Kuciwalker
For a fake election. Whoop-de-doo. |
Read the Beeb's article I linked to. You'll see what changes even that fake election could bring to the Egyptian political life.
But if you ain't interested in facts, but only in your little rethoric, I won't interfere anymore.
quote:
"completely unused to democracy" (read: their vote was fixed through intimidation or simple corruption) |
To be honest, the 80%+ scores I've seen were in internal votes in the French Communist Party. The PCF was the last stalinist party of western Europe, and operated a 180° turn in the early 1990's, as the USSR was suddenly (and sincerely) harshly criticized. The PCF attempted to completely change its image in one swoop. Among other things, the structures were overhauled, and the PCF is now the French party that has the best internal democratic process, after the Greens. The leaders are very serious about changing the party, so they don't rig the election.
Not that they need to rig them. The base members of the PCF have yet to adapt to the climate of internal democracy. For decades, they had to follow the line of the party, or to leave the party entirely. We do have vocal ranters within the party, but we also have a broad membership that continues to follow suggestions of the leadership. I can think of only one time where the suggestions of the leadership was actually threatened by the voters.
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Kuciwalker
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of Schmooism
Feb 2001
time: 00:37
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quote:
Read the Beeb's article I linked to. You'll see what changes even that fake election could bring to the Egyptian political life.
But if you ain't interested in facts, but only in your little rethoric, I won't interfere anymore. |
Your the one who cited the English as an example of a progressing democracy. They didn't follow this pattern at all.
The difference, here, is that they have the appearence of democracy out of touch of the substance. In England they matched up better.
quote:
To be honest, the 80%+ scores I've seen were in internal votes in the French Communist Party. The PCF was the last stalinist party of western Europe, and operated a 180° turn in the early 1990's, as the USSR was suddenly (and sincerely) harshly criticized. The PCF attempted to completely change its image in one swoop. Among other things, the structures were overhauled, and the PCF is now the French party that has the best internal democratic process, after the Greens. The leaders are very serious about changing the party, so they don't rig the election. |
There's a difference between an internal party election and a national election.
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Spiffor
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CPA - Evil Clone brigade
Nov 2001
time: 06:37
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quote:
Originally posted by Kuciwalker
So you're saying that the Egyptian elections are pretty much just internal party elections, and so don't have anything to do with democracy on the national scale? |
I'm saying that the "cast out the ballot" part was useless this time. However, there is more to democracy than that. Even if we discount the whole "free society, rule of law etc." part, there is more to the democratic decision process than merely casting out the ballot.
The "campaign" part was extremely fruitful.
Now, you may play the "lalalaaaaaa I can't hear you" tune, and you can stop reading. If your definition of a democracy solely entails the fact that your ballot will be accounted accurately, and nothing else, you can forget about the rest of this post.
Democracy cannot appear out of thin air. There are several things that must pre-exist for a democracy (a nascent democracy even) to function.
1. A key component of a democracy is the emergence of a public opinion. Public option can be defined as such: it is made of the various judgements made by the people, on political matters of interests, as they are discussed in dedicated places (newspapers, TV, but also the local tea house).
As you can see, a public opinion needs both relevant items to evaluate, and places where to discuss it.
In this regard, the Egyptian elections have brought excellent news. The political expression during the campaign was free. People could discuss freely, they could even say ill things about Mubarak freely. That's quite a difference. Besides, the public opinion didn't focus on the political items Mubarak had pushed for years. The campaign wasn't about Iraq or Palestine: it was about unemployment and the economy in general. For the first time, Mubarak had to defend himself and to make promises in this regard.
Yup, there's quite a bit of difference.
2. A democracy requires pluralism, i.e. the acceptance that there are competing factions to lead the country. Pluralistic people (be they politicians, generals or ordinary citizens) agree with their defeat when it happens.
But pluralism is not only an accepteance of defeat, it's also an acceptance of compromise, even when you win. If there is no compromise because of lack of pluralism, you end up with the tyranny of the majority, which can seriously alienate a large chunk of the population.
I don't know to what extent pluralism has increased in Egypt thanks to the campaign. However, the simple fact that Mubarak had to defend himself against his opponents, the fact that he had to promote himself positively, probably contributed to create a climate of pluralism among the political elites. Even if you look at the opponents, they agree that they have lost (they just say they have lost with a considerably differnet margin).
Again, it makes quite a difference. Especially since the main threat to the democratization processes is when the established elites do not tolerate defeat, and keep power despite an electoral defeat.
3. A democracy requires trust. For once, the people have to trust their institutions (which didn't happen at all in these elections, as the Egyptians were jaded by decades of rigged elections).
And also, there has to be a trust toward the other people, and the politicians in general, that they aren't necessarily out to get you. Trust is not a naive belief that the others care for you, but it's the belief that the others will behave fairly honestly with you, that they won't **** you over at the first opportunity. For example, in Iraq, the main reason why the factions couldn't agree on federalism vs centralism was because they were certain the others were out to **** them over wrt oil.
In the matter of trust, I have nothing that leads me to believe there had been progresses in Egypt.
In any case, this election has allowed for an immense progression of the Egyptiian public opinion. Without the use of force, it will be hard to make the press and the people apathetic again. The emergence of this public opinion, if the trend continues, should allow for more and more pluralism, as alternative proposals and personalities will be promoted over time. The pluralism has also modestly progressed IMO, which is also good news.
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Kuciwalker
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of Schmooism
Feb 2001
time: 00:37
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quote:
I'm saying that the "cast out the ballot" part was useless this time. However, there is more to democracy than that. Even if we discount the whole "free society, rule of law etc." part, there is more to the democratic decision process than merely casting out the ballot.
The "campaign" part was extremely fruitful.
Now, you may play the "lalalaaaaaa I can't hear you" tune, and you can stop reading. If your definition of a democracy solely entails the fact that your ballot will be accounted accurately, and nothing else, you can forget about the rest of this post. |
It's a necessary condition, yes.
quote:
1. A key component of a democracy is the emergence of a public opinion. Public option can be defined as such: it is made of the various judgements made by the people, on political matters of interests, as they are discussed in dedicated places (newspapers, TV, but also the local tea house). |
Necessary but not sufficient. And anyway, many undemocratic societies had public opinion. Rome?
quote:
Again, it makes quite a difference. Especially since the main threat to the democratization processes is when the established elites do not tolerate defeat, and keep power despite an electoral defeat. |
You that that they would've let the other side win? Didn't you say earlier that the army would step in?
quote:
3. A democracy requires trust. For once, the people have to trust their institutions (which didn't happen at all in these elections, as the Egyptians were jaded by decades of rigged elections). |
QFT.
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Spiffor
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CPA - Evil Clone brigade
Nov 2001
time: 06:37
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quote:
Originally posted by Kuciwalker
It's a necessary condition, yes. |
Yes. It's a necessary condition. It's not the only thing. We are in complete agreement here.
quote:
Necessary but not sufficient. |
Well, duh, of course it's not sufficient.
quote:
You that that they would've let the other side win? Didn't you say earlier that the army would step in? |
I said there was progress in this regard. I din't say the process was complete yet, far from it.
I actually believe that the process would go much faster if the established leaders lost to "acceptable" opponents next time (if they are pluralistic enough that they consider any opponents "acceptable", which I hope). The victory of an "acceptable" opponent would actually allow for a civilian transition of power.
OTOH, if an "unacceptable" opponent wins (Islamists), the army will seize power, and the whole democratization process will come back to square 1, after much death and destruction.
I think you have misunderstood me. I've never said that Egypt had suddenly become a democracy. It definitely isn't (and actually, I do think Iran is more democratic, though I think Iran has structural problems that hamper it in going further).
However, it is flat out wrong to dismiss the whole thing by saying "oh, a rigged election, what else is new?". The campaign has allowed very significant changes in the Egyptian political life. That's progress. That's the kind of thing one needs in a democratization process.
And this is why these elections are a step in the right direction. I'm sorry if your worldview cannot accomodate the idea that a strongarm dictatorship doesn't turn into a democracy in just one election.
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Kuciwalker
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of Schmooism
Feb 2001
time: 00:37
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quote:
Yes. It's a necessary condition. It's not the only thing. We are in complete agreement here. |
Well, yeah, you also need to get rid of voter intimidation.
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I said there was progress in this regard. I din't say the process was complete yet, far from it. |
What's the evidence fo that?
quote:
I actually believe that the process would go much faster if the established leaders lost to "acceptable" opponents next time (if they are pluralistic enough that they consider any opponents "acceptable", which I hope). The victory of an "acceptable" opponent would actually allow for a civilian transition of power. |
Why is confidence going to develop through completely phony imitations of a democratic transfer of power?
quote:
OTOH, if an "unacceptable" opponent wins (Islamists), the army will seize power, and the whole democratization process will come back to square 1, after much death and destruction. |
OTOH, if you disarm the ****ing army, it won't be able to.
(Obviously, this step requires a bit of finesse.)
quote:
And this is why these elections are a step in the right direction. I'm sorry if your worldview cannot accomodate the idea that a strongarm dictatorship doesn't turn into a democracy in just one election. |
In a completely phony one, no.
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Bereta_Eder
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FREE PALESTINE!
(could be appropriate somehow)
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Spiffor
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CPA - Evil Clone brigade
Nov 2001
time: 06:37
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quote:
Originally posted by Kuciwalker
It's being printed more openly. |
That's part of the public opinion. When the opinions aren't printed, or barely so, they don't make a public opinion. That's the very point.
Besides, the items on the agenda of the public opinion weren't Mubarak-made. For a long time, the "public opinion" focused on the issues Mubarak fed it with: Palestine mostly, on which a broad consensus exists. Now, the issues are about unemployment and other domestic issues. Mubarak's propaganda machine isn't the reason why these issues are discussed. The public opinion is becoming autonomous, which is also a leap forward.
Thanks to the fact that domestic issues are discussed, Mubarak isn't above criticism. Unlike matters like the terrorist threat or the support to the Palestinian brothers, it is not immoral for an upstanding citizen to disagree with Mubarak on internal matters. It allows for a breach in the false consensus. This is why the issues that are discussed are now politicized
+openness
+autonomy
+politicization
= +public opinion.
A good step in the democratization process, albeit a largely insufficient one.
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10-09-2005 21:59
Let's trigger a civil war between different factions, in which the Muslim bortherhood will win! 
You like Iran and Saudi Arabia? You'll LOVE Brotherhood's Egypt 
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