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Melios
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There are generally a few things that would be needed to let you know about the probability of natural disasters:
Earthquakes: If there are Earthquakes, there HAS to be fault lines. It may take an advanced technology to detect them though, without getting hit by one first. 
Volcanoes: Similarily depends on fault lines, but it in real life it generally is where plate collisions and terrain buckling are occuring (e.g. Rocky Mountains, Andes Mountains). You can't assume you are safe if you aren't near a mountain however; a volcano can form in the middle of nowhere from a fumarole, such as what happened outside Mexico City in a cornfield about 50 years ago. Ever see the movie "Volcano" where a volcanic vent opens up somewhere in L.A. during the middle of the night? That gives you a good idea of the worst possible scenario. 
Tsunami: These can flatten coastal areas and islands quite easily (it happened to Crete and destroyed the Minoans when Thera exploded). Often caused by volcanoes and earthquakes nderwater, so again fault lines are a concern here (one can conclude a huge ocean is a dangerous risk area). Sometimes, even City Walls won't help you (depending on elevation). 
Drought: Even with irrigation and Aqueducts, droughts can still bring cities to its knees.
Note:
Meteorite: I only know of two major "impacts from space" in recent history:
a. Arizona meteor impact 5,000 years ago (unknown what it may have crushed back then besides the terrain)
b. The object that fell in Tunguska about 91 years ago. All that really did was flatten out a Siberian forest, albeit at the force of an H-Bomb.
Thus, I don't think cosmic impacts are really necessary. And if someone developed SDI Defense, the threat would be removed entirely anyways. 
Hurricanes, Tornadoes, and very bad weather: These may only last from 2 minutes to an hour, or in the case of a hurricane, 1 to 2 months. So it wouldn't be that significant given how much time they'd have to clean up and rebuild.
As for other minor disasters:
Fires: It would take a major fire to truly cause a significant damage. (like a Firestorm)
Toxic Spill: Significant enough to at least reduce the poulation, a polluting
city with a lot of industry may have a deadly chemical spill.
Dischord: A really bad form of civil unrest in a city where it has gotten to the point they are killing each other! Population decreases as this continues; you may need military assistance to quell it (in a Democracy/Republic, you can call it the National Guard). More likely in a captured city than one you built (i.e. no cultural clashes).
Plague: Plague epidemic. Starts to kill off population. Low occurance in Industrial and Modern Ages.
Nuclear Meltdown: Pretty much the same as it was in Civ2. Takes extreme conditions to actually occur (in real-life, Chernobyl & 3-Mile Island were the only two major incidents so far, and only one actually meltdown, the other was resolved before catastrophe occured at the cost of serious damage to equipment).
Now I'm surprised no one mentioned a UFO Disaster. 
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PGM
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Lisboa, Portugal
Aug 2001 time: 05:15
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Natural disasters? That has nothing to do with CIV tradition, I think it would totally disrupt the game as we know it. It's like asking for CIV3 in real-time. That wouldn't be CIV, and if you've played CIV1 and CIV2 often enough, you know what I'm talking about. Sure CIV3 will be different from its predecessors, but the roots are there, only widely developed and polished. There's lots of games with natural disasters, lots of games in real-time, we do not need yet another one. What is in fact needed is a game like this, focusing on deep diplomatic/commercial/economic/military relations, because nothing like this has been done so far. This way people can choose what game best fits their interests between a large variety of options.
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