13-03-2002 21:35									#61
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Roland: The PDF lists number of patents granted. The Council on Competitiveness lists the number of patents filed.

The trickier part of figuring this stuff out is the actual innovation in industry. Here, the US is stronger in some areas than others. According to Rohm & Haas, for instance, about 45% of all "global" drug discoveries happen in the US. Europe might be stronger on chemicals, even though these industries are similar in some respects.

paiktis: You're missing the point. European companies can and do file useless software patents in the US, just as do American and Japanese companies. Europe's overall share is still a useful metric, and the US share says basically that the US is treading water on a comparitive basis, not growing rapidly as some suggest.

Last edited by DanS on 13-03-2002 at 21:43

	13-03-2002 21:39									#62
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well I only had time to read the chart and I responded instinctively

	13-03-2002 22:31									#63
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DanS's information just confirmed one thing: Europe is on the decline, not the US. European socialism is killing off the creativity and innovation of its people. Why should people work their butt off and strive for excellence if doesn't make much difference anyway? Furthermore, most of your countries are going to lose up to 25% of your native population in next 50 years, and yet you are unable to attract high-skilled immigrants and integrate them into the society.

America, on the other hand, is continuing to attract high-skilled immigrants. All the best scientists and engineers in the world flock to the US. Just ask the Chinese, Indian, or Russian governments how pissed they are about the loss of their best people to the US. Even if those immigrants decide to return to their home countries, they often obtain important functions there and are most likely friendly to America.

I find it hilarious that Europeans still think themselves able to overtake the US.

	13-03-2002 22:53									#64
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"Europe is on the decline, not the US."

It's a whole lot more complicated than that. Innovation is very expensive and even if successful might not be worth much on the whole. Europe could freeload off of US innovation, and still close the gap on other measures, such as per capita GDP--Europe appears to be doing just that, according to the trend line. Indeed, a very profitable niche for Europe could be to evaluate all of US innovation and only implement those areas that seem worthwhile.

	13-03-2002 23:37									#65
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quote: Originally posted by DanS "Europe is on the decline, not the US." It's a whole lot more complicated than that. Innovation is very expensive and even if successful might not be worth much on the whole. Europe could freeload off of US innovation, and still close the gap on other measures, such as per capita GDP--Europe appears to be doing just that, according to the trend line. Indeed, a very profitable niche for Europe could be to evaluate all of US innovation and only implement those areas that seem worthwhile.

You mean stealing inventions? I don't think high-tech inventions are that easy to steal. Otherwise, they would have duplicated the Intel VLSI process long time ago, wouldn't they? Also, the best ideas do not come from multi-national dinosaurs, but from nimble small start-ups, something easily killed off by European socialism.

As for GDP growth, all top EU countries(Germany, France, UK) have a slower growth rate than the US. But the overall EU average got boosted by their poorer members who were just a little bit better off than third world countries.

	13-03-2002 23:52									#66
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"You mean stealing inventions? I don't think high-tech inventions are that easy to steal."

No, I mean reverse engineer, a staple of all countries' industry. Intel is a special case due to the fact that it's an incredibly capital intensive industry. Even if you were to reverse engineer Intel's stuff, you would have to build a chip plant at over billions of dollars a pop.

"As for GDP growth, all top EU countries(Germany, France, UK) have a slower growth rate than the US."

Even if true (and ef will tell you why it isn't), the US is adding population at a pretty huge clip, so the per capita GDP is converging.

	14-03-2002 00:51									#67
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quote: Originally posted by DanS "You mean stealing inventions? I don't think high-tech inventions are that easy to steal." No, I mean reverse engineer, a staple of all countries' industry. Intel is a special case due to the fact that it's an incredibly capital intensive industry. Even if you were to reverse engineer Intel's stuff, you would have to build a chip plant at over billions of dollars a pop. "As for GDP growth, all top EU countries(Germany, France, UK) have a slower growth rate than the US." Even if true (and ef will tell you why it isn't), the US is adding population at a pretty huge clip, so the per capita GDP is converging.

Don't underestimate the difficulties of reverse-engineering. As the technology gets more complex, so does the time and resource required to do the reverse-engineering. It's specially true in fields of integrated circuits, software, and computing where a piece of existing product is next to useless for reverse-engineering.

Also, lawyers everywhere are making sure that you can't just copy anything you want. Even Chinese are beginning to feel their heat.

	14-03-2002 04:56									#68
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Transcend,

I think the point DanS is making is that Europe is at least as good as the US in applying new ideas, even if it isn't as good at actually thinking them up.

Europe has usually been like this in history - the things that made Europe dominant during 1600-1900 were all thought up elsewhere (gunpowder, the compass, printing etc).
The difference was that Europe applied them better.

Even with the industrial revoultion, most of the best inventions that got it started were made in France - however it was Britian that applied them.


A good example is that if Europe applies IT 1 year behind the US then it can usually save 30-40% (according to moore's law) and whilst the US may benefit from a 12 month lead in technology it's probably counteracted by the extra costs.

	14-03-2002 05:17									#69
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El,

Past performance doesn't guarantee future success. The reason why Europe became so dominant for 2 centuries was because it had the most sophiscated political and economic systems, and the most competitive societies in the world. Can you say the same about today's Europe?

	14-03-2002 05:22									#70
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I dunno, how would you objectively measure a 'competitive society'?

It is interesting to note that America's average income has grown slower than Europe's in every decade since the second world war.

	14-03-2002 05:39									#71
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Competitive society? If you slack off all the time and still get paid the same as someone who works his butt off, that's not competitive.

	14-03-2002 05:45									#72
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quote: Originally posted by Transcend Competitive society? If you slack off all the time and still get paid the same as someone who works his butt off, that's not competitive.

What is the difference between the US and EU here?
I mean does the US have a higher proportion of people paid by piecework as opposed to hourly rates?

And what makes you think that Europe has a higher proportion of 'slackers' in it's workforce than the US does?
More to the point how on earth could you objectively measure it?

As it is very difficult to objectively measure the 'effort' put into an economy we will probably have to rely on the 'results' that come out of it, and these show that Europe's average incomes are consistantly growing faster than America's.

	14-03-2002 06:08									#73
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Transcend: Don't get me wrong. I like a vibrant society that innovates and works hard. I wouldn't have it any other way.

However, don't oversell the strengths of this approach for the economy or even national strength broadly construed. China is doing squat for innovation by just about any objective measure, but is growing at about 7% per annum. Japan is playing above its weight innovation-wise, but its economy has been getting its butt kicked for the last decade or so.

I am doubtful that anybody could have a higher per capita GDP than the US without besting us in innovation for a couple of decades, but Europe isn't losing out on too much by shooting for 85% of the US (or whatever it is they're shooting for). They can be quite comfortable in a constructively lazy posture.

	14-03-2002 13:46									#74
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About patents.... US companies file a lot of patents in Europe, too. So either they have soooo much more to patent, or their legal department or outsourced legal service is just more active, or they see potential for frivolous lawsuits. As Rambus shows, you can build a "business" around that.

If we take R&D spending as % of GDP, the US was at 2.75 % or so (may well go to 2.5 % now that the tech bubble has mostly popped), the EU at close to to 2 %, and Japan in the 2.5 % range. In absolute numbers, that's 275 billion $ US, 200 billion EU, and maybe 75 billion Japan. So if "IT patents filed in US" is the benchmark, Japan has the most efficient reasearch spending of the three by far. 32:275, 6:200, 25:75... Ah yes, seen that NEC spot ?

When "about 45% of all "global" drug discoveries happen in the US", what is the EU's share ? Japan isn't that big in pharma, so it should be in the 30-40 % range, or ?

And Transcend... Boulder, Colorado... working for the PD there, hmm ?

	14-03-2002 20:33									#75
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The metric I propose is the share of patents granted, not filed, even though they seem to track pretty closely. I would imagine that US companies are filing in Europe to lock in market position in the same proportion as European companies. You would have to say that US companies act differently with regard to patents than their European counterparts. The US patent system seems to show otherwise, however. Btw, Rambus technology is used in the best memory available at a reasonable price.

Anyway, we're getting more than a little off track here. My entire point in bringing this up is that the US might still be hitting home runs in everything that we do, but how that translates into The Only Remaining Superpower (R) is not as clear as is stated by some.

The reason it's not so clear is because other countries have quite high populations and, as such, have a shorter distance to travel. Even Europe has a pretty short distance to travel before it bests the U.S. on the Civ power charts.

Anyway, what's so bad about growing the pie and having others innovate? They can pick up their fair share of the work for once.

	14-03-2002 20:57									#76
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quote: Originally posted by el freako As it is very difficult to objectively measure the 'effort' put into an economy we will probably have to rely on the 'results' that come out of it, and these show that Europe's average incomes are consistantly growing faster than America's.

As I already said, EU's average got jacked up by those poor, almost third-world like member countries. It is expected that when this kind of countries grow, they grow by a much faster rate. A more viable comparison would be numbers from Germany, France, Benelux, and UK.

You have not answered how EU is going to solve the problems regarding the population loss and integration of immigrants.

	14-03-2002 21:01									#77
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quote: Originally posted by Roland And Transcend... Boulder, Colorado... working for the PD there, hmm ?

No.

It seems that Europeans such as you are super confident about your countries' abilities. Fine. Chinese were also pretty confident before the Opium Wars. I just hope you guys don't fall so hard on noses in 50 years, because I happen to like and respect Europe a lot. I only hate its socialist policies and their corrosive effects on work ethics.

	14-03-2002 21:05									#78
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The problem I have with such metrics is that "1 patent" is a formalised thing. It's a file, essentially. The hobby inventor and the BIG HUGE COMPANY can each have one patent, even if the first cost some hours sparetime, and the second 1 billion cash. Inventions can be split into several patents or filed under 1 (at least here - assume it's similar with US patents).

Same thing with articles. As soon as universities use such metrics esp for budgetting, the nr of articles explodes - while there is hardly more knowledge "produced".

"The US patent system seems to show otherwise, however."

How do they count international applications under the Patent Cooperation Treaty ? As also "filed" in the US ?

At the EPO, US filings account for 28 %.

"Btw, Rambus technology is used in the best memory available at a reasonable price."

Well, if it IS rambus tech...

"Anyway, what's so bad about growing the pie and having others innovate? They can pick up their fair share of the work for once. "

Nothing. You could also tone down the arrogance.

	14-03-2002 21:09									#79
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Transcend:

"It seems that Europeans such as you are super confident about your countries' abilities."

That's always relative, and I'm only super confident with people who don't know what they are talking about. "socialist policies and their corrosive effects on work ethics" - care to tell me which austrian socialist policies you'd do away with ?

	14-03-2002 21:29									#80
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"You could also tone down the arrogance."

No thanks. Everyone should compensate us additionally for the freeloading that they do off of our innovation. Wait until China and India receive the bill! Slackers...

Re the patents, the effectiveness of the U.S. patents seems at least on par with other countries, so I think we can pretty much take the stats for what they are worth.



Anyway, again, how all of this translates into national power isn't at all clear.

edit: France's enforced 35-hour work week is a prime example of what Transcend is saying.

	14-03-2002 21:38									#81
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"Everyone should compensate us additionally for the freeloading that they do off of our innovation."

Who's freeloading ?

Not to mention all the german patents you stole in WWII.

"France's enforced 35-hour work week is a prime example of what Transcend is saying."

Really ? How exactly is it "enforced" ?

	14-03-2002 21:49									#82
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quote: Originally posted by Roland Transcend: "It seems that Europeans such as you are super confident about your countries' abilities." That's always relative, and I'm only super confident with people who don't know what they are talking about. "socialist policies and their corrosive effects on work ethics" - care to tell me which austrian socialist policies you'd do away with ?

At least for Germany:
1. Reduce government involvement in business and education. Government bureaucracies are chronically inefficient and would finance their inefficiencies by just adding more taxes.

2. Lower taxes, especially for new business startups. That will in turn create jobs and make multinationals more interested to stay in the country.

3. Reduce welfare, nobody should ever get unlimited welfare support. You don't want to any substantial percentage of your population to "bread and circus" folks.

4. Reign in the power of the labor unions. Instead of protecting worker's rights. These monstrous bureaucracies have mutated to the point where they are trashing businesses and keeping slackers/morons/losers on the job.

	14-03-2002 22:00									#83
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So now the issue is just german "socialism" ?

"1. Reduce government involvement in business and education."

Way too broad. What business, what involvement ? Same for edu.

"2. Lower taxes, especially for new business startups."

What's wrong with the current rates, esp when considering the tax base ?

"3. Reduce welfare, nobody should ever get unlimited welfare support."

If we're talking about Arbeitslosenhilfe here, I agree.

"4. Reign in the power of the labor unions. Instead of protecting worker's rights. These monstrous bureaucracies have mutated to the point where they are trashing businesses and keeping slackers/morons/losers on the job."

You are confusing them with US labour unions. German ones are quite different. The only problem is with the Flächentarifvertrag, but that's a quite specific one....

	14-03-2002 22:40									#84
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Roland, I'm not a policy maker so I won't go into gory details. I only brought up Germany because that's country I had lived in for many years. I don't the details about Austria so I refrain from commenting too much about it. You should know how different Austria is from Germany.

Speaking of taxes, let me ask you a question: do you think the government can spend money more efficiently than individuals and businesses? If yes, then we are from 2 different worlds and there is nothing more to talk about. If no, then you must be able to see the point that government should only spend money on tasks that cannot be done by individuals and businesses.

I fail to see why German or any other POWERFUL labor unions would behave any differently than US ones. Maybe you can explain the difference?

	15-03-2002 05:15									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Transcend As I already said, EU's average got jacked up by those poor, almost third-world like member countries. It is expected that when this kind of countries grow, they grow by a much faster rate. A more viable comparison would be numbers from Germany, France, Benelux, and UK.

Well I could make the counter argument that the Southern States have jacked up the US growth rate as they have also converged on the US's average Income.

But just looking at your selected few...

Trend-Adjusted GDP per head as % of USA in 1990 and 2000:

Germany: 69%, 76%
France: 76%, 72%
Netherlands: 70%, 80%
Belgium: 70%, 76%
Luxembourg*: 104%, 135%
United Kingdom: 68%, 72%

*this is the actual figure as the OECD does not publish trend data for Luxembourg

As you can see only France saw a relative fall in their income (in the EU only Sweden suffered the same fate) compared to the US.

As far as immigration and the birth rate is concerned, well if nothing changes then there will be a large fall in populations in several countries.
However this has been forecast before, in the late 1970's it was predicted that our population would be falling now, instead it is growing by nearly 1m a year.

	15-03-2002 13:08									#86
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"do you think the government can spend money more efficiently than individuals and businesses?"

Of course not, with the possible odd exceptions (freerider problems etc).

"If no, then you must be able to see the point that government should only spend money on tasks that cannot be done by individuals and businesses."

Fine. Now how is this related to why europe be more "socialist" than the US ?

"I fail to see why German or any other POWERFUL labor unions would behave any differently than US ones. Maybe you can explain the difference?"

First, different tradition. German labour movement vs US guild tradition. US unions are parasitic little shitmakers - this is a bit difficult in Germany where eg closed-shop is illegal, collective bargaining agreements have outsider effect, and employers have their employer "union" - aka Arbeitgeberverband. The whole labour relations framework is completely different, and to compare those unions across the pond is like comparing pineapples and cherries.

	16-03-2002 02:02									#87
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quote: Originally posted by Roland "do you think the government can spend money more efficiently than individuals and businesses?" Of course not, with the possible odd exceptions (freerider problems etc). "If no, then you must be able to see the point that government should only spend money on tasks that cannot be done by individuals and businesses." Fine. Now how is this related to why europe be more "socialist" than the US ?

Because most European governments need those high tax rates to pay for their outrageously generous welfares. You already agreed that welfare is too much in Europe and individuals and businesses can spend money more wisely. So, then what's wrong with European governments lowering some of their commitments and reduce the taxes?

quote: "I fail to see why German or any other POWERFUL labor unions would behave any differently than US ones. Maybe you can explain the difference?" First, different tradition. German labour movement vs US guild tradition. US unions are parasitic little shitmakers - this is a bit difficult in Germany where eg closed-shop is illegal, collective bargaining agreements have outsider effect, and employers have their employer "union" - aka Arbeitgeberverband. The whole labour relations framework is completely different, and to compare those unions across the pond is like comparing pineapples and cherries.

OK, German Labor Unions may be more responsible than their American counterparts. What about the British, French, or Italian ones? It seems that French are on strikes continously.

	16-03-2002 02:09									#88
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quote: Originally posted by el freako Well I could make the counter argument that the Southern States have jacked up the US growth rate as they have also converged on the US's average Income. But just looking at your selected few... Trend-Adjusted GDP per head as % of USA in 1990 and 2000: Germany: 69%, 76% France: 76%, 72% Netherlands: 70%, 80% Belgium: 70%, 76% Luxembourg*: 104%, 135% United Kingdom: 68%, 72% *this is the actual figure as the OECD does not publish trend data for Luxembourg As you can see only France saw a relative fall in their income (in the EU only Sweden suffered the same fate) compared to the US.

Ok, I concede in this point. I think Germany got the bump because the eastern part is rapidly catching up. But I'm really surprised that Netherland made such a big gain, and that even most EU countries have such low GDP per person compared to the US.

quote: As far as immigration and the birth rate is concerned, well if nothing changes then there will be a large fall in populations in several countries. However this has been forecast before, in the late 1970's it was predicted that our population would be falling now, instead it is growing by nearly 1m a year.

Your population is not falling because of the immigration. As I already pointed out, you need to integrate immigrants to avoid social conflicts and maintain current productivity. El, do you think your country is doing a good job at integrating immigrants?

	16-03-2002 02:59									#89
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quote: But I'm really surprised that Netherland made such a big gain

You're kidding right?

Holland was one of Europe's fastests growing economies in the last years.

quote: and that even most EU countries have such low GDP per person compared to the US.

Not really surprising. But GDP per capita says little about the actual quality of life in various countries.

	17-03-2002 19:48									#90
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quote: Originally posted by Transcend I think Germany got the bump because the eastern part is rapidly catching up. But I'm really surprised that Netherland made such a big gain, and that even most EU countries have such low GDP per person compared to the US.

The Netherlands has made impressive gains in getting a greater proportion of it's people into the workforce - in 1990-2000 the workforce went from 58% of the population aged 15-64 to 66% (by comparison the figure for the US actually fell from 76% to 75%).

As is to be expected the poorer nations of the EU did best.

Trend-Adjusted GDP per head as % of USA in 1990 and 2000:

Spain: 52%, 60%
Ireland: 50%, 81%
Portugal: 41%, 52%
Greece: 41%, 50%

EU-15: 67%, 72%

quote: Originally posted by Transcend Your population is not falling because of the immigration. As I already pointed out, you need to integrate immigrants to avoid social conflicts and maintain current productivity. El, do you think your country is doing a good job at integrating immigrants?

Well the 'natural rate' of population growth (that's births less deaths) is still positive in the EU, it's just very low (around 0.1% a year).
As for my country (the UK) then I think that immigrants are being integrated fairly well - whereas we have integrated our blacks far better than the US has we seem to integrate Muslim south asians about as poorly as those blacks are in the US.