03-04-2002 00:34									#121
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What would happen is the US would send its own forces to protect Israel with a couple of aircraft carriers.

But Egypt would never turn its back on the US, and wouldn't strike. Turkey may even step in causing trouble for those nations who strike Israel, because after all the Turks have batches of F-4s and F-5s Fighters being upgraded by Israel. Egypt would stay neutral. I doubt Sadat would cut himself off because 80% of his Airforce, Army and Navy is US backed, and his economy is doing well but that all depends on maintaining normal relations with both Israel and the US.

Syria has outdated MiG-21s and MiG-23s, which are basically useless for battle against F-15s and F-16s. The T-55s and T-62s Syria possesses are nothing more than a box of rusted metal.

So I disagree with this Luttwak guy. He should examine the situation more closely, and see what countries have their economies at stake if they go to war with Israel. Egypt being one of them.

	03-04-2002 00:43									#122
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quote: Originally posted by Giancarlo I doubt Sadat would cut himself off because 80% of his Airforce, Army and Navy is US backed,

Sadat?

	03-04-2002 00:45									#123
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quote: Originally posted by Eli Sadat?

Excuse me, Mubarak. Sadat was assassinated twenty years ago.

	03-04-2002 05:31									#124
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: Thank you for your map, imram. It confirms that the PA was offered 95% of the territories at Camp David, including land where many settlements exist. Most of the annexations are in areas immediately adjacent to (a rifle shot from?) heavily populated areas in metro Jerusalem and metro Tel Aviv, in pre-67 Israel. In addition, as your map does not make clear, there was discussion of compensating the Palestinians with land from pre-67 Israel. It is clear why President Clinton was so angered at the PA reaction to Camp David. If I was Arafat I'd never take that proposal in a million years. Bullshit proposal, and Clinton was the idiot that thought it was fair So you think 5% of the west bank is worth 1000 palestinian deaths, and worth sending terrorist bombers into Israel to kill men, women and children as they sit down to eat a Passover meal? A bullshit proposal, that involved concessions that Israeli leaders have said for years they would never make? That Barak came into office promising not to make? As for your remark about Clinton - you know what your Republican friends say about Clinton - that he was a fool for thinking that it was possible to deal with Arafat, for thinking that Arafat was interested in peace. If the proposal was bad, why didnt Arafat make a counter-proposal? Perhaps because he would have either had to ask for something so extreme as to put the Pals in a bad light, or he would have had to take the chance that Barak would have accepted it - obviously the last thing he wanted - since the Pals want to win their state by force of arms, to improve their self-esteem, not by negotiations. [QUOTE] The settlements are basically annexations. The settlements are under Israeli control, and they won't allow Palestine to rule over them, I bet.

Barak offered to withdraw from settlements at Camp David, as your map shows. But then you consider that a bullshit offer. Perhaps you should familiarize yourself with its details first. Perhaps you should read your own map.


LOTM

	03-04-2002 05:41									#125
	Re: Re: Re: Re: Israel has never lost a conventional war, or won a guerilla war Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

[QUOTE] Originally posted by Eli


They're not. Maybe in the next days, but not now. They have few dozens of Kassam 2s in the West Bank and at least some Katyushas. I know of fears in the IDF that they will try to conquer a settlement and take the residents hostage, this is something that wasnt done ever.
And I'm not talking about what they have now, but what they will have couple years after the withdrawal.


But they will presumably try to stockpile those weapons in Population centers, like Nablus or Ramallah. Sharon has not suggested a permanent re-occupation of those places. So that is a problem whether Israel builds a fence or not, and whether it withdraws from places like Elon Moreh or not. How does a presence in isolated settlements prevent the buildup of missiles in West Bank cities? Raids like the current one might do that, but such raids would still be possible after fence-building and withdrawl.

You seem to fear that govt like Rabin's would not conduct such raids, for political reasons. I must remind you that Rabin's withdrawl was NOT unilateral, but was part of a "peace process", which Rabin and subsequent PM's did not want to endanger. You may think them fools for believing that process was something of value, but they did think it. I am proposing a unilateral withdrawl, in that case there would be no such compunctions

	03-04-2002 06:01									#126
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quote: Barak offered to withdraw from settlements at Camp David, as your map shows

Uh huh.... like that would ever have happened.

Arafat did make a counter-proposal, ALL of the West Bank and Gaza and East Jerusalem... the only settlement that makes any sense.

quote: But Egypt would never turn its back on the US

If Israel pushes too far and too hard, I don't think that will matter.

	03-04-2002 06:04									#127
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: Barak offered to withdraw from settlements at Camp David, as your map shows Uh huh.... like that would ever have happened. Arafat did make a counter-proposal, ALL of the West Bank and Gaza and East Jerusalem... the only settlement that makes any sense.[/b]

Arafat would of wanted more and more if the Israelis accepted his illogical proposal.

quote: If Israel pushes too far and too hard, I don't think that will matter.

Won't matter? The US will side with Israel no matter what. And I believe Egypt won't get involved after what has happened to its military in the 70s when in conflict with Israel. Just some common sense that you seem to be lacking.

	03-04-2002 06:17									#128
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quote: Arafat would of wanted more and more if the Israelis accepted his illogical proposal.

Do you know anything?

quote: Won't matter? The US will side with Israel no matter what. And I believe Egypt won't get involved after what has happened to its military in the 70s when in conflict with Israel. Just some common sense that you seem to be lacking.

1) The US would be crazy to actively supply Israel. It would make 9/11 look like childs play.

2) Egypt can't survive not doing anything with the propaganda its spewed out about the whole crisis. Mubarak would follow Sadat's lead and be killed.

3) Egypt's military is MUCH improved since the 70s. Especially with American tanks and airplanes. It can do a much better job against Israel this go around.

You are the one that needs the common sense lesson, if you know who you are this week .

	03-04-2002 06:25									#129
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui Do you know anything?

Do you?

quote: 1) The US would be crazy to actively supply Israel. It would make 9/11 look like childs play.

Then it should draw proportions to what countries it should support.

quote: 2) Egypt can't survive not doing anything with the propaganda its spewed out about the whole crisis. Mubarak would follow Sadat's lead and be killed.

Mubarak followed up on Sadat's legacy and will continue it.

quote: 3) Egypt's military is MUCH improved since the 70s. Especially with American tanks and airplanes. It can do a much better job against Israel this go around.

Much better enough?

quote: You are the one that needs the common sense lesson, if you know who you are this week .

	03-04-2002 07:19									#130
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Imran is right on one thing - Egypt is very very powerfull.

It would be more if not for Israeli spies. We noticed that they were using Israel as a target in their practices, after which the American support was cut.

	03-04-2002 07:25									#131
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[QUOTE] Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui

quote: Barak offered to withdraw from settlements at Camp David, as your map shows

Uh huh.... like that would ever have happened.

LOTM - Since all Arafat was offering in return was an end to the conflict, which could have been withdrawn in the event of Israeli non-compliance with a treaty, it was certainly a chance worth taking. I beleive it would have happened.


Arafat did make a counter-proposal, ALL of the West Bank and Gaza and East Jerusalem... the only settlement that makes any sense.

LOTM - No he did not. He made no response at Camp David.
Not even the uncompromising response you outline. (are you sure you mean ALL of East Jerusalem - even the Jewish Quarter of the old city? The Western Wall? I dont think youve thought out your position)