07-11-2002 08:28									#31
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I would fly non-stop aerial flights over advancing American troops, dropping millions of leaflets with directions to Baghdad.


On a serious note : How to organize Iraq's defense. Well, maybe Saddam could ask Kuwait for some friendly, first hand advice.

	07-11-2002 08:39									#32
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Foster a subversion of Kuwaiti government about now. Just bribe some guy enough so that he invites Iraqi troops to come over. The puppet government can then kick out the US troops. This denies a buildup area for US troops and force them to delay.

Use hit and run tactics. The US supply lines will be long. Attack these with small mobile groups.

Mine the Kuwaiti harbours. Turn propaganda machines on the Kuwaiti government.

Get ready for some serious urban fighting. Make the war drag out. Wait for the bad news to hit home.

	07-11-2002 09:00									#33
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quote: How would you organise Iraq's defences?

I would invited Vietnamese advisors and turn desert to jungle.

	07-11-2002 09:12									#34
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I think the idea of ceding the nation to Iran is interesting. Of course Sadam would never do it, and Iran is probably not dumb enough to accept, but think about it.

He would pre-empt any possible war on Iraq, regime change already happened, too late US. The US has so far appeared reluctant to engage Iran at all, but Iran is beligerant enough to cause problems for the US. It would double the power of Iran, making it better able to combat the US influence and power. Plus it woud gain great support in the Muslim street, maybe lead to some kind of islamic unification movement. Big problem for US.

If not under sanctions and shoddy leadership Iraq can be a pretty wealthy, populous, powerful nation. Ending the political entity of Iraq, and giving it all over to Iran would effectively end the sanctions and calls for weapon inspections, allowing Iran to develop the combined resources into something formidable (relitively speaking).

	07-11-2002 09:19									#35
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Hide all your good troops in the cities and try to make things as much like Black Hawk Down as possible

	07-11-2002 09:22									#36
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Black Hawk Down is stupid fairytale. I've almost throw up twice when I was watching it.

	07-11-2002 09:26									#37
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Start licking boots at the UN, and starve your people to prove that your country is so weak that it can't even feed it's own people. Then let the antiwar people do the rest.

	07-11-2002 09:42									#38
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Beating the US would be impossible, so the only hope is to make the victory so expensive on the part of the Americans, they'd be forced to withdraw. And waging an urban war instead of repeating the Gulf War would do precisely that.

	07-11-2002 10:18									#39
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Stop echoing me, Ramo

	07-11-2002 10:37									#40
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Urban War will not happen. US will just lay siege to the cities and offer civillians free passage out.

	07-11-2002 10:48									#41
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Bah!

	07-11-2002 10:55									#42
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Nothing wrong with that, what with great minds and all

	07-11-2002 11:18									#43
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Beating the US would be impossible, so the only hope is to make the victory so expensive on the part of the Americans, they'd be forced to withdraw. And waging an urban war instead of repeating the Gulf War would do precisely that.

The "urban stronghold" seems to be the only real option he's got. And it's actually quite humorous, if you place this strategy in it's proper context. For example, Saddam's Gulf War tactic was a copy of WW1 - trenches, threats of gas, etc. But rather than send human waves at his lines (which Iran DID do, so maybe that's why he thought it would work), the US treated him to the spectacle of mobile air & armored war on the Grand Scale. WW1 meets Rommel on steroids - is it any wonder the Iraqi troops were slaughtered? So what does the military genius in Baghdad have in store for us this time?

Why it's a return to the Middle Ages! Yes, all you 100 Years War buffs, sit back and watch as Saddam tries to replicate the French strategy of sitting around inside their cities & castles while the English army marches helplessly through the countryside. So what do you think, is it possible that the US military might - just maybe - be capable of thinking up a counterstrategy that doesn't involve an assault into the teeth of his urban defenses? Why is that nobody learned anything from the last conflict? Most of the Gulf War opponents have conveniently forgotten that back then they were predicting huge losses - apparently expecting our military to replicate the Somme in southern Kuwait. Gimme a break.

There's actually several successful options for handling this "new" tactic, none of which involve a direct assault on his "castles". And not so coincidentally, many of these worked great 700 years ago in France.

1) Bribery: Most of the true Saddam loyalists will be gathered in two cities, Tikrit (his clan home) and Baghdad. Once the military commanders in the other cities are sealed off by our "siege troops", they will listen eagerly to any offer we make. Lots of easy slam dunks here.

2) Siege: Hey it worked then why not now? We allow any civilian who wants to leave to come out, and just wait for the inevitable collapse. Take out all the infrastructure that makes a modern city livable, and they'll have no alternative. Saddam's only "weapon" will be to try and portray this as cruel to the beleagured citizens, but that won't work. Propaganda only succeeds if it has an audience, and you can bet the US will seal off ALL communication between these cities and the outside world. Yes, there'll be refugees telling awful stories, but no pictures to feed the media. And without pictures, there's no outrage - just the facts of life in the modern world. Tack on some 24 hour psych warfare (the Noriega siege writ large) and it won't last that long anyway. Some general will figure out that a suicdal end alongside Hitler in his Bunker isn't the best career strategy, and that'll be the end of Saddam - and the War.

I'd be surprised if our total casualties crack triple digits. Game, set, match.

	07-11-2002 12:05									#44
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I never said it was a good strategy.

quote: 2) Siege: Hey it worked then why not now? We allow any civilian who wants to leave to come out, and just wait for the inevitable collapse. Take out all the infrastructure that makes a modern city livable, and they'll have no alternative. Saddam's only "weapon" will be to try and portray this as cruel to the beleagured citizens, but that won't work. Propaganda only succeeds if it has an audience, and you can bet the US will seal off ALL communication between these cities and the outside world. Yes, there'll be refugees telling awful stories, but no pictures to feed the media. And without pictures, there's no outrage - just the facts of life in the modern world. Tack on some 24 hour psych warfare (the Noriega siege writ large) and it won't last that long anyway. Some general will figure out that a suicdal end alongside Hitler in his Bunker isn't the best career strategy, and that'll be the end of Saddam - and the War.

I'd be really suprised if Shrub et al. could get away with it, without facing some serious domestic opposition. Maybe the Dems might grow spines.

	07-11-2002 12:18									#45
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quote: Originally posted by Serb Black Hawk Down is stupid fairytale. I've almost throw up twice when I was watching it.

What part(s) constitute a 'stupid fairy tale'?

	07-11-2002 12:28									#46
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Put your head between your legs and kiss your *ss good-bye.

It is the only way.

	07-11-2002 13:06									#47
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The Iraqis have a lot of potential to win this one. Yes, win. Not because they'll ever kick our ass, but because the definition of winning this time hinges off of regime change and occupation.

Any victory by Iraq will be political, not military, by outlasting the US, and by making the cost in foreign policy prestige and propaganda too high.

Any mobile attack by Iraqi forces, or dilution, or attempts to interdict US supply lines as suggested here would be ****ing suicidal. Any use of WMD or attacks on third countries, including Israel, would play into US hands from a propaganda standpoint.

The Iraqi naval forces, such as they are, are seriously ****ed. Same with their air force. Iraqi naval capabilities will be gone before a ground phase ever starts, and the Iraqi air force won't be worth the AAA and SAM protection it has to keep the planes from being ground killed. Write 'em off from the outset.

The US goal is hinged on three major factors:

Iraq is not to be partitioned - in the Shiite south, partition would make the US **** it's pants, along with all the arab states disinterested in an expansion of Iranian influence. (is that redundant? ) In the Kurdish north, our Turkish allies would **** their pants.

Tikrit and Baghdad are the centers of gravity politically and in every other way. The battle of Baghdad has to be fought and won.

The cost, in terms of American casualties, dollars, time, and political prestige, has to be low enough to be tolerable.

The basic outline of a defense plan for Iraq:

Semi-comply with the new inspections regime. Just enough to make it hard to impossible for the US to get it's way in the UN, but not so much that you lose all sense of whatever the hell motivates ongoing defiance.

Write off the Kurdish north and the Basra area - partition isn't in the US goals, and and the Iraqis can not maintain supply lines, move, or fight in the open.

Deploy a couple of low-to mid quality corps somewhat forward from Baghdad, about halfway to the "write off" areas, one on each side of the rivers. This will doctrinally induce the US to bomb the hell out of and drop what bridges still exist, which in the long run hinders movement on both sides and protracts the conflict. But supply line interdiction and isolation of enemy forces is in the book, so it will be done.

Move several command and control centers into the basements of hospitals, particularly air defense command and control centers. Make 'em broadcast long and loud. If there's a hospital for kids or with an extra big maternity ward, put a ghost HQ in there, with lots of radio traffic.

Redeploy most air defense assets to act as SAM traps for very high priority targets only - Strike Eagles, 117's and Wild Weasel / Ironhand missions in particular. Only one lights up, try to induce a Wild Weasel / Ironhand response, and when they commit, saturate them with previously "dark" air defense assets.

Deploy armor and IFV's into the city areas, and put them in factories, sheds, mostly buried in rubble, anything that will make them harder to detect and give them close range first shot chances.

Erect barricades around accessways in and out of different areas of the city, restricting citizens from going out, and forcing US troops to either back away, or fight in an urban environment.

Survey every 3 story and higher building, and look to deploy small anti-armor teams with RPGs, and supporting infantry teams in as many as possible.

Iraqi arty will be useless in the field - dig some of it in in building basements and first floors, with LOS down major streets for boresight fire. Distribute the rest widely in the city, close to buildings, but with limited, overlapping fields of fire a few miles outside the edge of the urban area, so they can interdict any approaching forces from multiple angles. Fire one or two shot missions, then drop, to frustrate counterbattery efforts. Use topside visual camouflage, and lateral proximity to buildings to frustrate aerial targeting and limit angle of approach. Situate shoulder-mount SAM teams on and perpendicular to the direction of any targeting runs by attack helos, so each tube is essentially directionally protected on one or more sides, and hosts a helo SAM trap on the approachable side.

Under the guise of doing construction work (maybe the sewers need to be cleaned ), plant significant explosive charges underground in several high-density residential areas. Do this in a pattern that's strongly reminiscent of aerial bombardment. Keep significant military assets out of these areas. We want arms and legs flying for CNN.

Secretly wire an orphanage or two for demolition - same with an elementary school. Little arms and legs flying, and mommies screaming on worldwide TV. Again, make it look like an impact crater. If you need to fool people with something coming down, set up a 120 mm mortar a ways away, sighted in, and wait for an air raid alert.

Right now, foreign journalists have largely been given the boot. That's good for right now, while you set up all this stuff, but lift press restrictions, especially of European countries, before hostilities start. If the US blocks satellite and wireless transmissions of neutral journalists, so much the better. Make sure there are lots of cooperative Iraqis who will help those journalists smuggle out images of the little arms and legs, the bombed maternity hospital, the starving but determined populace (use out of uniform soldiers, family members of political hacks, whatever, just make it look good).

The goal is to get the US commited in dollars and forces, let them have the two-thirds of the country they don't want to separate, and give them a tough propaganda and urban fight, or a siege option, with resultant casualties and starvation, etc. Let it protract, let world opinion turn, and give the US the choice between a hard bloody fight in city streets, or turning back. Use the UN and the foreign press as a political tool.

edit - typo

Last edited by MichaeltheGreat on 07-11-2002 at 13:23

	07-11-2002 13:08									#48
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quote: Originally posted by Serb Black Hawk Down is stupid fairytale. I've almost throw up twice when I was watching it.

What the **** would you know, moron?

	07-11-2002 14:07									#49
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id get my hands on nukes ASAP...then detonate them as soon as a large mass of american forces got nearby...he really has nothing to lose in this strategy

	07-11-2002 14:29									#50
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Except his life. That would be his death warrant.

	07-11-2002 15:02									#51
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are you saying he isnt going to die anyway in this conflict? hell, without his power he might as well be dead...

	07-11-2002 15:07									#52
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I'll bet he keeps both (life and power). Saddam has no time to obtain nukes of any size or deliverability, and US units would be widely dispersed. (Even in a "concentrated" attack like the gulf war, US divisions occupied fronts of several miles in width and even greater depth - the lethal radius of a typical current nuke wouldn't necessarily take out as much as a batallion size force in most areas of the division's security zone. In a lot of areas, you'd be lucky to take out a company size force.

	07-11-2002 15:37									#53
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He'll keep power?

	07-11-2002 15:45									#54
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Your scenario Michael, would require a highly professional and well trained force to carry out. I do not think the Iraqi forces could ever dream to attempt such a widely dispursed defence. That would require a high level of training and a degree of initiative on the part of officers and NCOs I doubt Saddam's army could ever come near. This is Saddam's army, remember?

	07-11-2002 16:16									#55
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MtG, mind if I post that in a few spots?

	07-11-2002 16:18									#56
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so MtG why are we invading iraq if he doesnt have any nukes that are deliverable or of any size?

edit: i dont know your political standing on the issue, so this isnt directed towards you so much as its a rhetorical question

	07-11-2002 16:25									#57
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quote: Originally posted by MRT144 so MtG why are we invading iraq if he doesnt have any nukes that are deliverable or of any size? edit: i dont know your political standing on the issue, so this isnt directed towards you so much as its a rhetorical question

The object of the game is to tag him before he gets nukes, not after.

	07-11-2002 16:27									#58
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Completely surrender to Iran in exchange for one thing: You may be governor of the Iran province called Iraq. Or even better: surrender to China.

	07-11-2002 16:35									#59
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so now america will fufill the role of big bully once again

	07-11-2002 16:48									#60
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[T.R.]
Bully! Bully!
[/T.R.]