04-01-2003 07:53									#31
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surely they can launder some of the information enough to remove any way to identify the source? some of it will no doubt be from one source so you couldn't launder that as it would be obvious where/who it came from no matter what. In those cases though, you don't really want to trust unconfirmed evidence surely? Especially on something you're prepared to go to war over?

	04-01-2003 07:57									#32
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quote: Originally posted by Demerzel It's simplistic and no doubt completely facetious but it really does seem that the US & most other nations will ignore the wrongs if something like oil is on the cards.

So what's new. Of course they will - the US government are scum and have a history of dubious military interventions (like many other oligarchic governments). If the US public is too dumb to realise this then they will no doubt suffer for it when disaffected Arabs try to get their own back, which they no doubt will. Among other things this war is a great recruiting drive for all sorts of terrorist lunatics. And then they'll complain that nobody likes them when everyone else says "told ya so".

Why doesn't GWB just send each American citizen a T Shirt with a nice big target on the front and a picture of Salman Rushdie on the back?



I hope my country doesn't get involved in this silly war. Saddam Hussein never tried to force me to park nuclear weapons in my back yard.

	04-01-2003 07:59									#33
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No, I don't totally trust it which is why I said they'll have to release it eventually. The key is to do it right though and the hard part will be give Hans Blix the info without some Arab state leaking everything to Saddam before the weapon's inspectors arrive on the scene.

Also remember that the Iraqis have bugged everything the inspectors use. Their cars, their equipement, their hotel rooms. Everything. So even if old Hans tries to keep it secret as soon as he briefs his staff on hat their going to be doing for the day then he's told the Iraqis.

	04-01-2003 08:00									#34
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It's not about oil.

US gets all its oil from ourselves and South America.

Japan and the EU, on the other hand, are dependent on Middle Eastern oil.

	04-01-2003 08:08									#35
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin A few mouths back Bush, Blair, and all were running around all the news stations talking about "secret dossiers" of classified info proving Sadam was lieing. They then said they didn't want to reveal what was in the dossier because it would reveal sources and methods to the Iraqis.

Do you honestly believe them?

I'll say it again. Why would it matter if they revealed sources and methods to the Iraquis if the information was used to gain public support for a war to destroy the Hussein regime? The sources would no longer be useful, so there would be no point in preserving them.

It's a fact that most people would support a war if compelling proof of Iraq's WMD were available. This is not an easy war to sell internationally, especially for Blair who's supposed to be a Labour Prime Minister.

The Americans are losing a huge amount of international good will among ordinary people from this. Most people in neutral countries (apart from the far left) used to think of the US as a basically benign power; Bush now has them going around talking like Noam Chomsky - it's quite an astonishing change. Look at South Korea - here is a country being protected by the US in which there are huge popular protests demanding that Yankee go home. More people think that Bush is a greater threat to World peace than Saddam Hussein.

You'd think that if they had anything they'd give it up.

	04-01-2003 08:08									#36
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teach Blix and his inspectors Attic Greek. Only a few thousand peeps speak that language and most surely the Iraqi's might have trouble with it. Or just get Blix some memory lessons, make him commit it all to memory and then get him to write it down for the instructors and then burning it after?

finally Ted regarding your stats,

quote: In 1973, foreign oil accounted for 35 percent of total U.S. oil demand. By the beginning of 1998, the figure had risen to 50 percent. Though OPEC provided 46 percent of U.S. imports, the dominant suppliers are non-Arab members (notably Venezuela, America's number one supplier, and Nigeria). In fact, Saudi Arabia (#3), Algeria (#9) and Kuwait (#12) were the only Arab countries among the top 20 suppliers of petroleum products to the United States in 1997. The Persian Gulf states supply less than 20 percent of U.S. petroleum imports.

True that a serious drop of oil from the middle east is less of a crisis than in 1973 when it caused fuel shortages and queues at "gas" stations but it's still a lot of oil from there. Explains why Kuwait had to be liberated though eh? 12th biggest supplier must be protected

quote: Although the US itself produces about seven million barrels a day, it is responsible for a quarter of world oil imports, so it still imports another 11 million barrels daily. An extra dollar per barrel on the price of this imported oil would drain over $4 billion from the US economy if sustained for a year.

ouch.

quote: For its part, the UK is among the world's top 15 oil consumers, but thanks to the discoveries in the North Sea, is actually a net exporter. In 2001, it contributed in net terms almost 900,000 barrels per day to the world's oil supply.

Hurrah for British North Sea oil!

	04-01-2003 08:16									#37
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker It's not about oil. US gets all its oil from ourselves and South America. Japan and the EU, on the other hand, are dependent on Middle Eastern oil.

It's not just about oil - it's also about preserving US dominance in the world.

Where did I get this from - well Bush's own policy statement on pre-emptive war and Zbigniew Brzezinksi's The Grand Chessboard a book everyone should read (He's no crank and has some very interesting things to say).

Like the idea of Attic Greek Demerzel, but no one I know speaks it as it is very hard to say anything useful in a dead language. I know this because I read it myself. But I suppose they could say things like "O dread Lord, The Persians have merely 500 chariots in poor condition and not many good hoplites".

	04-01-2003 08:20									#38
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heh nice

	04-01-2003 08:32									#39
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quote: Explains why Kuwait had to be liberated though eh? 12th biggest supplier must be protected

Regarding your stats, I don't see anything that differs from what I've said. You should also list your source though when you list stats, otherwise they lack complete credibility.

In Gulf War 1, after Kuwait was taken, the Iraqi army was then lined up to go after the Saudis. You remember the whole "Desert Shield" thing right? And oil did play a part in that one, but is that necessarily a bad thing?

Perhaps you would have prefered the world community stand by (remember Gulf War 1 was a large coalition -- it wasn't just a US coalition, though the US gave it teeth. Even Syria was in on the coalition back then) and watch as an Arabian peninsula empire led by Saddam Hussein is formed? I'm sure that would work wonders for the world economy right?

This time around I really don't see any oil connection. I mean #1 Saddam can't go anywhere and take over anybody. #2 if we were doing this to prevent him from using his own oil as a weapon, he would have done it by now and I haven't seen any oil problems whatsoever.

Recently prices have gone up because of the Venezualan oil worker strike, if anyone is the most important in terms of oil, it's Mexico, Venezuala, and the Russians.

Perhaps you should also investigate the recent deals going on between the US, Russia, and all of the former Soviet Republics. The Administration is striking deals with the former Soviet Republics specifically to undermine any dependence on Middle Eastern oil that is left. Makes more sense to travel the path of least resistance right?

There is a marked difference between the motivations between Gulf War 1 and Gulf War 2.

This isn't the British East India Tea Company or DeBeers we are talking about here.

	04-01-2003 08:42									#40
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quote: Present situation: European Union weaknesses The European Union's external dependence for energy is constantly increasing. The Union imports 50% of its energy requirements and if no measures are taken within the next 20 to 30 years this figure will rise to 70%. This external dependence has economic, social, ecological and physical risks for the EU. Energy imports represent 6% of total imports, which means in geopolitical terms that, 45% of oil imports come from the Middle East and 40% of natural gas comes from Russia. The EU does not yet have all the means possible to change the international market. This weakness was clearly highlighted at the end of 2000 by the strong increase in oil prices.

That was a self-assessment.

http://europa.eu.int/scadplus/leg/en/lvb/l27037.htm

quote: 10/04/2002 BRUSSELS -- The European Commission Tuesday announced that 31.11 percent of its oil needs comes from the Middle East, excluding Iraq.

http://www.qipc.net/news/april2002/apr11004.htm

And another self-assessment.

	04-01-2003 08:46									#41
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quote: Asia, led by its four largest economies — Japan, China, South Korea and India — imports 60 percent of its oil. The International Energy Agency in Paris expects this figure to rise to almost 90 percent in 2020, ‘‘with a corresponding increase in Asian vulnerability to any oil supply interruption.’’

quote: While the U.S. economy will increasingly be fed by oil from the Gulf of Mexico and other relatively nearby sources, Asia is being forced to forge new relationships with key Gulf suppliers.

http://www.iht.com/articles/1745.html

	04-01-2003 08:48									#42
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quote: we'll see whether it's wise or not, I'm prepared to be persuaded but the way that Bush is portraying himself as bloody-thirsty at the moment can't be wise.

The only reason Saddam let inspectors back in is because of Bush's saber rattling. If I was in charge, I'd remove all sanctions on Iraq and leave the region telling Saddam not to invade any other countries. If Bush 1 had done that through Ambassador Glasby prior to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, there wouldn't have been an invasion, no Gulf War, and no reason to be in this mess with Iraq now. But Bush 1, the supposed "foreign policy President" really goofed (or he wanted an Iraqi invasion of Kuwait).

	04-01-2003 08:59									#43
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Perhaps you should also investigate the recent deals going on between the US, Russia, and all of the former Soviet Republics. The Administration is striking deals with the former Soviet Republics specifically to undermine any dependence on Middle Eastern oil that is left. Makes more sense to travel the path of least resistance right?

Well well - this is similar to what Mr Brzezinski says - except that he thinks that there is no way that the US would want pipelines from the energy rich Caspian basin under the explicit or implicit control of the Russians. Hence having client regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan would be geostrategically useful. If you look at the map Iraq is almost perfectly situated.

It isn't surprising that there would be conflict and maneuvering in this area - look at the map - here you have an energy rich area right next to two major powers, Russia and China. You would think that the US would like some leverage in this area. It's not about oil for the US - its about the leverage obtained by controlling supplies.

	04-01-2003 09:02									#44
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Actually, regarding upcoming conflicts, some have argued that the next wars aren't going to be over oil, but rathar water.

It's interesting reading. Does Mr. Brzezinski cover this in his book?

	04-01-2003 09:04									#45
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He's going to "liberate" the oil as well...

Oil might not be the only reason Bush is doing this, but its a damn strong one. I'm not suggesting the US is simply going to steal the oil. They'll simply allow US corporations to "buy" it from the Iraqi people and then make insane profits from it.

Iraq has what, the second largest oil reserves in the world? Anyone who thinks oil isn't a factor is fooling themselves.

	04-01-2003 09:09									#46
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quote: Hence having client regimes in Iraq and Afghanistan would be geostrategically useful.

I would agree that they would be useful. Though, I don't see the intent to proactively go after those places for the specific purpose of oil. I can see though those locations being useful as a side effect.

Afghanistan Intention -- Topple Taliban and find Bin Laden

Iraq 2 Intention -- to be honest I have no damn idea what the hell is going on.

	04-01-2003 09:11									#47
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quote: They'll simply allow US corporations to "buy" it from the Iraqi people and then make insane profits from it.

Well, remember that the Russians, French, and British are all in this game also.

It's not like the US Army is going to arrive on the scene and then start handing out plots to Texaco.

	04-01-2003 09:12									#48
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Afghan intention -- Topple Taliban, find bin Laden, and get rid of evidence that we supplied arms to what is now Al Qaida...

I know exactly how Bush knows the inventory of Saddams chemical and biological arsenals... they all say "made in the USA" on the back

	04-01-2003 09:14									#49
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Well, remember that the Russians, French, and British are all in this game also. It's not like the US Army is going to arrive on the scene and then start handing out plots to Texaco.

nah... Iraq will be liberated, the US will allow the corporations to go in and negotiate with whoever is determined to be the land owner. Trust me, the Army and the US government won't be directly involved in the oil buying business. I'm sure Europe and Russia will get a certain portion (much like occupied Germany). A few Iraqi businessmen will get rich just like the Saudi's and then funnel tons of money to terrorism just like the Saudi's...

	04-01-2003 09:22									#50
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I'm familiar with the water issue, though it doesn't come up in The Grand Chessboard.

The basic point of the book is to formulate a strategy for keeping the US as the world hegemon (he's not a complete lunatic - he thinks that the only other alternative is anarchy - I disagree, but there you have it).

He thinks that the Middle East is basically a geostrategic "hole" left over from the collapse of the Soviet Union. The "hole" happens to be smack between Russia and China who are potential rivals to the US, so the US ought to attempt to assert some kind of control over this area in order to mantain its dominance over the Eurasian continent (he thinks that only a country with influence in Eurasia can hope to be world dominant).

So it's not oil - it's control, but control requires control of oil.

It's worth a read - took me less than a day (although I read quickly). Something like this seems a better explanation of current policy than the feeble excuses of the administration.

	04-01-2003 09:22									#51
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I know that there was talk that the Russians would have their contracts honored, but that the French, it was a different story.

	04-01-2003 09:27									#52
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Yeah, that's my point though... oil is just one of the motives...

it reminds me of the Borg Queen from Star Trek:First Contact... when she talks to Data and Data says, "I realize that you have no interest in me, that your goal is to obtain the encryption codes to the Enterprise computer.."

she smiled and replied, "That is one of our goals..."

Securing the oil rights for American companies is one of Bush's goals. His hatred for Saddam based on the whole "you tried to kill my daddy" thing is another. WMD's is probably another because his mentor Ronald Pagan brokered the sale of Iraq's chemical and biological stockpile. I'm sure there are other bits of info that the public isn't privy to as well.

	04-01-2003 09:36									#53
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My thing is that I don't see it as a motive. I see it as a side-effect.

	04-01-2003 10:33									#54
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker Perhaps you should also investigate the recent deals going on between the US, Russia, and all of the former Soviet Republics. The Administration is striking deals with the former Soviet Republics specifically to undermine any dependence on Middle Eastern oil that is left. Makes more sense to travel the path of least resistance right?

That ties in very well with the invasion of Afghanistan. Having a regime friendly to the US is pivotal to running a pipeline through the country to get to that oil. You don't want the Ruskies mandating prices for use of their pipeline now, do you?

	04-01-2003 10:36									#55
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Well, whatever happens, I can only hope that the US military will take a massive beating. Hell, it'd be great if we actually LOST any war we start in Iraq, but that probably won't happen.

That way, perhaps we'll think twice before invading people or bombing them.

	04-01-2003 10:39									#56
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quote: Originally posted by Ted Striker My thing is that I don't see it as a motive. I see it as a side-effect.

His daddy is a liason for an oil company to the Saudi government... Dubya himself is an oil man... Cheney is an oil man... Dubya is best buddies with Enron man, Ken Lay...

don't see a motive?

Where there's smoke, there's fire.

	04-01-2003 10:41									#57
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quote: Originally posted by David Floyd Well, whatever happens, I can only hope that the US military will take a massive beating. Hell, it'd be great if we actually LOST any war we start in Iraq, but that probably won't happen. That way, perhaps we'll think twice before invading people or bombing them.

So you hope American soldiers will die? That's nice... very American and good-willed of you. Although I might disagree with Bush's foreign policy, I don't want to see the American military and its personel take a "massive beating"...

how Christian of you...

	04-01-2003 10:44									#58
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quote: So you hope American soldiers will die? That's nice... very American and good-willed of you. Although I might disagree with Bush's foreign policy, I don't want to see the American military and its personel take a "massive beating"...

I'm sorry, how is it different when US soldiers die rather than Iraqi soldiers/civilians?

I fail to see the distinction, and since some people have to die in war, I'd just as soon it be the aggressors.

	04-01-2003 10:45									#59
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Yeah but Urban with regards to Afghanistan, oil really has nothing to do with it, and the central asian pipeline theory is really stretching it.

The worst possible thing you can do to yourself is to launch an attack on American soil. I mean that is like the one thing that the American people will just go crazy over. I mean people here were STEAMED. I have never seen us that angry before.

I have always said long before Afghanistan that anyone stupid enough to launch an attack on American soil is pretty much asking for a rain of fire to come down on their heads and slitting their own throats. And that's exactly what happened.

If Bush didn't do what he did, people would have had his head on a platter. In the days following the attacks, Bush is quoted by Bob Bernstein as saying, "We're going to find out who did this, and we're going to kick their asses." That quote pretty much sums up what was on nearly every single American's mind after those attacks.

The invasion of Afghanistan was motivated by a couple of factors:

1) Self Defense
2) Revenge
3) Justice

Oil had nothing to do with it.

We don't care if it takes 50 years or if we have to dig under 800 tons or rubble, but Bin Laden is going to be found dead or alive for what he did.

	04-01-2003 10:45									#60
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In any case, wouldn't a big defeat now save lives in the long run, if it dissuaded the US from going around bombing people (at least for a while)?