27-02-2003 00:54									#31
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I don't think the U.S. will have any problem purchasing Chile's vote. Pakistan will sign up once we remind them that we're giving them a pass on supporting terrorists and selling nuclear weapons to our enemies.

If so, then the US seems to have a winning hand. I doubt that France is willing to pony up much money to take away any of these votes. I'm skeptical about Pakistan, though.

	27-02-2003 01:02									#32
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Why do y'all need anyone special to challenge Blair? Isn't his approval rating in the 30%'s?

Thats the party ratings - not unusually low given the parliamenary system is not a PR system, and its still higher than the Tories.

	27-02-2003 01:04									#33
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The USA will go to war anyway. I am pretty sure if Bush makes the case to the people that the UNSC is being unreasonable and that the action is nessecary for our security, the people will come around and support the war.

	27-02-2003 01:19									#34
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On a related note.

What are the best websites for the upcoming war. I'm looking for stuff that shows troop placements and such. although I would hope that they aren't too detailed- or Iraq would look at them. But I want to keep up with every battle if I can.

	27-02-2003 01:32									#35
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Pakistan is a sure thing Dan.

Mussy needs Uncle Sugar support, or Bin Laden's boys will wipe him out, France can't help him.

	27-02-2003 03:23									#36
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I think France is actively looking for support as well. Maybe even more than the US (I wonder what we gave to Russia for it to back our position ?).
To the US, this whole UN charade has been a painful formality, which ended up badly. To France, it is central in the prestige of the French diplomacy, as the only counterweight against the US.

But the most probable outcome will be :

- a watered down resolution in the words, which practically allows the US to attack, but gives enough rhetorics for Chirac to save the face.
- Calm and backstagey negociations between the US, France and Russia, so that nobody vetoes the whole deal, and everyone finds an acceptable win in the situation.
- Germany makes an ass of itself by voting against the war alone (China will abstain)
- Iraqis get slaughtered as planned

	27-02-2003 03:30									#37
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara What if, after the US makes it's presentation, it loses the vote. I don't just mean if France, China, and/or Russia decide to veto. What if we lose the majority vote?

The President addressed this already.
It would be nice if the U.N. finished what they started, but otherwise looking like the U.S. and the Brits.

All others just stay out of the way, please.
Thank you so much.

	27-02-2003 03:33									#38
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I agree. France will definitely want a say in post-war Iraq. Chirac wont care, because he's not running again. Blair is as good as done politically as the Bush administration goes around telling the whole world that we will attack Iraq no matter what Saddam does. Bush will probably not be reelected either as it looks like a bad economy before the election.

	27-02-2003 03:33									#39
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT Wrong place again ! Not Avenue des Champs Elysées, Palais de l'Elysée where Président Chirac is living.

Chinese embassy? You said the Chinese embassy?

	27-02-2003 03:35									#40
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quote: Originally posted by SlowwHand All others just stay out of the way, please. Thank you so much.

It looks so much better with a "please". I would almost stand out of the way

More seriously, I mean it. Had Bush's diplomacy not been so brash and humiliating for its vassals allies, the war would have started already, with UN approval.

	27-02-2003 03:42									#41
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"King of Cowards".

	27-02-2003 03:45									#42
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DuncanK :

Actually, I think Chirac cares. He is precisely at the peak of his political career : after decades of petty politics, he managed to get to the absolute power in France : an opposition in shambles, a ruling party completely at his will.
French presidents always want to enter history books, and Chirac has now 4 years to enter history next to De Gaulle (his official inspiration) and Mitterrand.

Since he cannot do well on the internal level, because recession lurks and France is simply too small to do anything about it, he has to do everything on the external level : new dynamics in Europe and building his cherished Common Foreign and Security Policy, showing determined opposition to the US' hegemony, etc. Pretty much everything De Gaulle would have done

(this offsets of course his freedom-killing laws, the greater repression against alienated minorities, the resurgence of brainless flagwaving, the destruction of the welfare we hold so dear etc.)

Chirac might end up accepting a compromise with the US, but it would mean the US will give quite some power to France in another area of the world.

	27-02-2003 03:45									#43
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I think France is actively looking for support as well. Maybe even more than the US (I wonder what we gave to Russia for it to back our position ?).

Trying to act as a counterweight to the US sounds to me like an expensive proposition.

Chirac might end up accepting a compromise with the US, but it would mean the US will give quite some power to France in another area of the world.

Why would the US compromise very much with France?

	27-02-2003 03:45									#44
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This whole thing is looking like a done deal. It is just whether a form of words can be found that lets everybody off the hook.

Blair has gone too far to back down now. If he does he might as well resign. So the UK will go to war. Blair has just won the vote in the House of Commons by 400+ votes to 124 on Iraq having reached the final chance to disarm. If the UN now votes Iraq has not complied and military action is possible, that's it, he is clear to go ahead with the UN approval. It has been Blair even more than Bush who has needed UN clearance all along.

What matters now is whether it is a short clean war or a long bloody one.

	27-02-2003 03:46									#45
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT Wrong place again ! Not Avenue des Champs Elysées, Palais de l'Elysée where Président Chirac is living.

I was talking about this special ops squad:

	27-02-2003 03:46									#46
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Trying to act as a counterweight to the US sounds to me like an expensive proposition.

Expensive and megalomaniac. It seems to be an ambition fitting my president

quote: Why would the US compromise very much with France?

It would make things much easier if the US just had the UN approval next week. It would also relieve much military costs for the US in the peacekeeping operations after the war. Lastly, it would give more legitimacy to the attack in the world public opinions, and more importantly the US public opinion.
I guess Bush had some reasons to go to the UN.

	27-02-2003 03:48									#47
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Spiffor: I also added the comment...

Why would the US compromise very much with France?

	27-02-2003 03:50									#48
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DanS : seen this, edited that

	27-02-2003 03:52									#49
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Spiffor,

I think Bush would actually rather see Chirac veto. I don't think Bush will give him anything. I could be wrong though.

	27-02-2003 04:01									#50
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor I think France is actively looking for support as well. Maybe even more than the US (I wonder what we gave to Russia for it to back our position ?). To the US, this whole UN charade has been a painful formality, which ended up badly. To France, it is central in the prestige of the French diplomacy, as the only counterweight against the US. But the most probable outcome will be : - a watered down resolution in the words, which practically allows the US to attack, but gives enough rhetorics for Chirac to save the face. - Calm and backstagey negociations between the US, France and Russia, so that nobody vetoes the whole deal, and everyone finds an acceptable win in the situation. - Germany makes an ass of itself by voting against the war alone (China will abstain) - Iraqis get slaughtered as planned

Spiffor: I think that this is the probable outcome as well. I do think it possible that you will also see a Russian abstinsion. France will have no option but to vote yes if they are able to obtain face saving language. The trade off will probably be post-Saddam Iraq honoring development contracts for the southern oil fields.

	27-02-2003 04:08									#51
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It would make things much easier if the US just had the UN approval next week. It would also relieve much military costs for the US in the peacekeeping operations after the war. Lastly, it would give more legitimacy to the attack in the world public opinions, and more importantly the US public opinion.

Why would French approval matter for the ultimate outcome at the UN? Looks to me like Bush could just dare France to veto the positive vote.

	27-02-2003 04:16									#52
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Why would French approval matter for the ultimate outcome at the UN? Looks to me like Bush could just dare France to veto the positive vote.

We'll see, but I doubt the Bushies will risk that much to stroke their ego. A veto in the UN would delight almost every Frenchman, so it isn't risky on the internal level either. Chirac is quite unpredictable when provoked these days, since he is just discovering he has balls.

I really think there are backstage negociations occuring right now. I didn't see any official diplomatic barking across the pond in quite some time.

	27-02-2003 04:20									#53
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A veto in the UN would delight almost every Frenchman

It would ultimately harm France's interests, however.

	27-02-2003 04:25									#54
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Spiffor,

I think it would be more than just a stroke to Bush's ego if France was made to look like an outsider here. It would make France look like the loser out of it. Even if France doesn't veto they still look bad, but atleast they are able to look out for their interests. At least they would still look sucessfull at sending a message, even if they couldn't stop the US from attacking.

	27-02-2003 04:27									#55
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quote: Originally posted by DanS A veto in the UN would delight almost every Frenchman It would ultimately harm France's interests, however.

This is very true. France is not economically powerful enough to challenge US positions around the world. Not to mention the fact that the US has defacto control over most international loans from the IMF.

In order for France to position itself as a counterweight it must gain full control over a strengthened EU. (EU policy must become French policy). This is highly unlikely that Chirac will be able to pull this off.

Logic would then suggest that Chirac must compromise or end up with less international leverage than he currently have (this is not to say that standing firm would not be of great value to the domestic population, but he does not need to increase support there).

The best play for France is to get a face saving resolution where they can say that their position was upheld and they stood up to US even as tanks roll into Iraq.

	27-02-2003 04:30									#56
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I say we throw the UN out and then take out Saddam. We waste our time, there's nobody to stop us and as long as we keep doing the right thing, ie taking out the bad guys, the democracies of the world can either join the posse or shut the hell up and I don't care which.

	27-02-2003 04:31									#57
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The best play for France is to get a face saving resolution where they can say that their position was upheld and they stood up to US even as tanks roll into Iraq.

Better for the US not to facilitate France saving face on the issue.

	27-02-2003 04:46									#58
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The US must appear to be trying to get the resolution to pass, but would probably rather make it look like the French failed at standing against them. If they can, then the French might be even less successfull in the future at standing against them, because other nations would not expect the French to be successfull.

	27-02-2003 08:02									#59
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The Security Council won't pass a new resolution on this. The US will need 9 votes for it, something it will not be able to achieve. Even if Russia + France + the PRC is only half as effective as the US + the UK, they still won't be able to swing it. Plus, France will table a counter resolution if and when the US presses for an attack.

So the only thing remains to be seen is whether the US will go it alone with some help from the Brits and the Aussies. But only a genius such as W. will put himself in a nightmare like this.

	27-02-2003 09:32									#60
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quote: Originally posted by Urban Ranger The Security Council won't pass a new resolution on this. The US will need 9 votes for it, something it will not be able to achieve. Even if Russia + France + the PRC is only half as effective as the US + the UK, they still won't be able to swing it. Plus, France will table a counter resolution if and when the US presses for an attack. So the only thing remains to be seen is whether the US will go it alone with some help from the Brits and the Aussies. But only a genius such as W. will put himself in a nightmare like this.

UR: There was a good article today in USA TODAY about how the US can apply pressure to each member. It gives rational on PRC abstaining and Russia getting on board. It even presents a fairly reasonable case for France voting for a resolution that allows them to save face.

This is appearing more and more like the most probable scenario.

It appears that the "industrialized" world is not yet ready to split, but the groundwork has clearly been laid out.