13-05-2003 19:33									#32
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat I'd rather deal with blind fanatics, then strategic fanatics. There's nothing to indicate that the goals here are different. The strategy is in pushing political discontent among the population up, to be ready as the situation develops in Iraq. Shiite Iran + Shiite Iraq to be + Shiite push in Saudi (not to mention Kuwait, as an afterthought once the Saudis have their minds right) = Shiite control of Mecca and Medina plus most of the world's oil. It's definitely good for them.

are all or even most Iraqi Shiites fanatics? depends who you believe - at least fanatics seem able to get rallies of at least 30000 for their side - impressive in a country like that, but then they get funding and maybe even manpower from Iran. Some reporters and commentators claim plenty of Iraqi Shiites dont want fundie rule - but maybe theyre part of US "cheering squad". Wont be clear for some time.

But if Iraq DOES end up an electoral democracy, hard to see how shiite fundies can win. Kurds prefer secular rule. Sunnis have to see that Shiite fundie rule hurts them. Shiites only 60% of pop - if any large minority opposes fundies or if fundies cant unite (Hakim faction vs Sadr faction) then they lose.

	13-05-2003 19:48									#33
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The Iraqi shiites and the Irani shiites are different in nature. The ones describe themselves as arabs, the others are Persians.

	13-05-2003 20:13									#34
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark are all or even most Iraqi Shiites fanatics? depends who you believe - at least fanatics seem able to get rallies of at least 30000 for their side - impressive in a country like that, but then they get funding and maybe even manpower from Iran. Some reporters and commentators claim plenty of Iraqi Shiites dont want fundie rule - but maybe theyre part of US "cheering squad". Wont be clear for some time.

As Napoleon once said, "An army of rabbits led by a lion is preferable to an army of lions led by a rabbit."

In reference to Johnson's BS about "winning the hearts and minds of the Vietnamese people," a popular saying in the US military about Vietnam was "if you grab 'em by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow."

Most Iranian Shiites aren't fanatics, just like most Germans in WW2 weren't fanatics, just like most Afghani Pashtun aren't fanatics. All it takes is a few lions as leaders, some wolves as enforcers (a la SA and later SS, Baath, Taleban, Revolutionary Guards, etc.), and the rabbits come along for the ride.

quote: But if Iraq DOES end up an electoral democracy, hard to see how shiite fundies can win. Kurds prefer secular rule. Sunnis have to see that Shiite fundie rule hurts them. Shiites only 60% of pop - if any large minority opposes fundies or if fundies cant unite (Hakim faction vs Sadr faction) then they lose.

You're assuming they play clean. Mugabe didn't have majority support last election either, that didn't stop him. A little assassination here, a little co-option there, a little intimidation somewhere else, and a little vote-shaving everywhere. I'd rather start from a 60% majority than a 40% minority base, wouldn't you? And what happens if the Shiites (smart fanatics, not blind ones) promise the Kurds virtually complete autonomy within a defined area, including exemption from the Sharia basis of law applied elsewhere in the country. Minorities can be bought off with concessions that don't fundamentally alter your own strategic position.

We're talking risks, anyway, not absolutes, but you can be sure they'll try and keep trying, as long as the fanatics exist. Smart ones are just more likely to be tougher to deal with.

	13-05-2003 20:16									#35
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel The Iraqi shiites and the Irani shiites are different in nature. The ones describe themselves as arabs, the others are Persians.

True, however... as long as there's a history of oppression that unites them, in the immediate term there's more of a sense of common cause (by whatever means to advance that cause) than there is of separate identity.

Subverting them and exploiting their differences will take time.

	13-05-2003 20:26									#36
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what history of oppression? there is no joint history of opression, since the arabs were opressed by a sunni arab, and the shiites were "opressed" by a secularist shiite Iranian. There IS a common religious basis. That is strong, but the "arab" identity is strong, too.

I'd say that Iran will surely try to exploit the religious connections, but there are ways to counter this, for example by giving (false ) autonomy to the shiite leaders, and letting them run their own bussiness, ( under certain restrictions of course, but minimal ones, really). I am sure that the local leaders wouldn't like to be Bossed by Iran.


Thing is, this is NOT the right thing to do. The right thing to do is either: let Iraq fall apart peacefully, and in agreement, while maintaining good relations with all the "children of the revolution", or to create a strong central government on a secular basis, under the banner of "stopping religious strife".

	13-05-2003 20:28									#37
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat As Napoleon once said, "An army of rabbits led by a lion is preferable to an army of lions led by a rabbit." In reference to Johnson's BS about "winning the hearts and minds of the Vietnamese people," a popular saying in the US military about Vietnam was "if you grab 'em by the balls, their hearts and minds will follow." Most Iranian Shiites aren't fanatics, just like most Germans in WW2 weren't fanatics, just like most Afghani Pashtun aren't fanatics. All it takes is a few lions as leaders, some wolves as enforcers (a la SA and later SS, Baath, Taleban, Revolutionary Guards, etc.), and the rabbits come along for the ride.

That works after you've taken power - taking power is a a more complex matter.

quote: You're assuming they play clean. Mugabe didn't have majority support last election either, that didn't stop him. A little assassination here, a little co-option there, a little intimidation somewhere else, and a little vote-shaving everywhere. I'd rather start from a 60% majority than a 40% minority base, wouldn't you?

Im assuming coalition forces and the Iraqi interim authority will clamp down on assasinations, etc. The way we chased a Hakim follower/would be mayor out of Kut. For the less violent cheating, I assume guys on the other side can play dirty too if necessary. And i dont think SCIRI has a 60% base - that ignores Shiite secularists, and anti-Hakim players like Ayatollah Sistani and Sadr family.

quote: And what happens if the Shiites (smart fanatics, not blind ones) promise the Kurds virtually complete autonomy within a defined area, including exemption from the Sharia basis of law applied elsewhere in the country. Minorities can be bought off with concessions that don't fundamentally alter your own strategic position.

There is no precedent in an Islamic state for exempting one group of MUSLIMS from Sharia based on ethnicity. Besides, all impressions are that the Kurds prefer to work with US and Chalabi than with the SCIRI.

quote: We're talking risks, anyway, not absolutes, but you can be sure they'll try and keep trying, as long as the fanatics exist. Smart ones are just more likely to be tougher to deal with.

The other thing you ignore is the extent to which SCIRI relies for funds and organization on Iran. Which can be threatened by the coalition in a number of ways.

	13-05-2003 20:30									#38
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel There IS a common religious basis.

actually the religion can also be a source of rivalry - the freeing of Najaf as a religious center may reduce the prestige and influence of Qom.

	13-05-2003 20:33									#39
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Yikes, 90 dead.

Those Al-Quaeda guys sure know their job.

	13-05-2003 20:35									#40
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no, the americans are inexperienced. just look at the "Mike's Place" attack.

	13-05-2003 20:39									#41
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. I know that this is not the case, al quida resources vastly differ, they had 9 suicide bombers, etc.

	13-05-2003 20:44									#42
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There are now 90 declared dead.

From Le Monde :

quote: Attentats meurtriers ŕ Riyad avant l'arrivée de Colin Powell LE MONDE | 13.05.03 | 11h42 • MIS A JOUR LE 13.05.03 | 17h00 Un nouveau bilan fait état de plus de 90 morts, dont 10 ŕ 12 Américains, selon des responsables du département d'Etat. Le secrétaire d'Etat et les autorités saoudiennes accusent Al-Qaida. Les explosions ont frappé des complexes résidentiels et administratifs abritant principalement des étrangers. A quelques heures de l'arrivée ŕ Riyad, mardi 13 mai, du secrétaire d'Etat américain, Colin Powell, des attentats, qui ont visé des complexes résidentiels et administratifs abritant principalement des étrangers, dont des Américains, ont secoué la capitale saoudienne dans la nuit de lundi ŕ mardi, faisant, selon un nouveau bilan, plus de 90 morts. Il s'agit d'attentats-suicides, qui ont été menés par des membres du réseau terroriste Al-Qaida, a presque aussitôt déclaré aux quotidiens saoudiens Al-Riyad et Okaz, le ministre saoudien de l'intérieur, le prince Nayef Ben Abdel Aziz. Leurs auteurs, a-t-il assuré, font partie du groupe de dix-neuf terroristes dont les forces de sécurité avaient annoncé, le 8 mai, ętre ŕ la recherche aprčs avoir découvert deux jours plus tôt un impressionnant arsenal d'armes : 55 grenades ŕ main, 377 kilogrammes d'explosifs, plus de 2 500 balles d'armes de tout calibre, 7 fusils-mitrailleurs Kalachnikov, plus de 80 chargeurs et du matériel de communication. La police avait alors précisé que dix-sept membres de ce groupe, lié ŕ Al-Qaida, étaient de nationalité saoudienne.

"Murderous terror attacks in Riyadh before Colin Powell's arrival
LE MONDE | 13.05.03 | 11h42 • UPDATED THE 13.05.03 | 17h00

A new report declares there are more than 90 dead, including 10 to 12 Americans, according to the State Department. The secretary of State and the Saudi authorities blame Al Qaeda. Explosions have struck residential and administration complexes mostly inhabited by foreigners.

Those are suicide-attacks led by members of the Al Qaeda network has declared the Saudi police minister to local newspapers almost immediately. According to him, their authors are members of the 19 terrorists group whose research by the security forces has been made public the 8th May. 2 days before, an impressive arsenal had been discovered : 55 hand grenades, 377 Kilogrammes of explosives, more than 2500 bullets all calibers, 7 Kalashnikovs, more than 80 magazines and communication hardware. The police had mentioned that 17 members of this group bound to Al Qaeda were of Saudi nationality."

	13-05-2003 20:46									#43
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*sigh*

	13-05-2003 20:58									#44
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And for those that like their news not mangled by Babelfish

http://customwire.ap.org/dynamic/st...EMPLATE=DEFAULT

quote: 91 Killed in Saudi Arabia Terror Blasts By ADNAN MALIK Associated Press Writer RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) -- Attackers shot their way into three housing compounds in synchronized strikes in the Saudi capital and then set off multiple suicide car bombs, killing 91 people, including seven Americans, officials reported Tuesday. In Washington, a State Department official put the total dead at 91, but gave no breakdown by nationality. Authorities also found nine charred bodies believed to be those of the suicide attackers, a Saudi Interior Ministry official said. The bombings, which took place about 11:30 p.m. Monday, constituted one of the deadliest terror attacks on Americans since Sept. 11, 2001, and Secretary of State Colin Powell said the coordinated strike had "the earmarks of al-Qaida." "Terrorism strikes anywhere, everyone," Powell said. "It is a threat to the entire civilized world." President Bush vowed to hunt down the attackers. "These despicable acts were committed by killers whose only faith is hate, and the United States will find the killers, and they will learn the meaning of American justice," he said during an appearance in Indianapolis. The attackers wounded 194 people, most of them slightly, the Saudi official said. At least 40 of the injured were Americans, U.S. Ambassador Robert Jordan said. Witnesses reported hearing gunfire moments before one of the cars exploded. One survivor, John Gardiner from Kinghorn, Scotland, told the British Broadcasting Corp. the blasts were "absolutely terrifying." "All the doors came in, the external doors, the internal doors, all the windows, and the next think I knew I was lying on my back in shattered glass," he said. The force of the blast ripped through multi-story apartment buildings and single-family houses. Facades of five- and four- story buildings were sheared off. Heaps of rubble and blocks of upended concrete surrounded twisted steel bars and knocked downed palm trees. Burned-out hulks that had been cars were still in their parking spots; upended furniture and debris littered a pool deck. There was no claim of responsibility. If the al-Qaida connection is confirmed, it would show that Osama bin Laden's network is still capable of mounting coordinated attacks, even in one of the world's most tightly policed countries. Before being uprooted in the U.S. war in Afghanistan, the group carried out the Sept. 11 attacks and the 1998 simultaneous car bombings outside American embassies in Kenya and Tanzania that killed 230 people. The Riyadh attack came as the United States is pulling out most of the 5,000 troops it had based in Saudi Arabia, whose presence fueled anti-American sentiment. Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said last week that most would be gone by the end of the summer. Bin Laden has repeatedly railed against the presence of what he calls "infidel" troops on Muslim holy land. The Saudi Interior Ministry official said at least 20 people were killed in the latest attack, including seven Americans, according to the official Saudi Press Agency. Powell, who arrived Tuesday on a previously scheduled visit despite the attacks, said at least 10 Americans were among the dead. He later said it was possible the death toll was lower. Seven Americans were among the more than 200 people killed in the October terror bombings in Bali, Indonesia. The Saudi Interior Ministry official said the attackers used cars packed with explosives in suicide operations. He said the blasts also killed seven Saudis, two Jordanians, two Filipinos, one Lebanese and one Swiss at the three compounds. Saudi Arabia has a large population of expatriate workers, including about 35,000 Americans. The U.S. Central Command said there were no reports of casualties among American service members. The attacks were followed by a smaller bombing Tuesday near the headquarters of a Saudi-U.S. company. No casualties were reported. A guard at one of the housing compounds in the northeastern Riyadh was quoted by the Saudi paper al-Watan as saying that seven cars exploded there, all apparently carrying suicide bombers. At least three bodies could be seen lying on the ground Tuesday morning. Police vehicles, lights flashing, patrolled the walls of the compounds and kept reporters out. The Al-Hamra compound, which suffered one of the worst attacks, was hidden behind 20-foot walls. Surveillance cameras were posted along the walls. Most of the homes in such compounds are large, single-family villas. Behind high walls, Westerners can escape Saudi restrictions such as the requirement that women outside the home wear enveloping robes. Residents tend to work as corporate executives, oil industry professionals and teachers. Two of the complexes hit Monday were named after cities in Spain conquered by the Muslim empire in the 13th century. Al-Hamra is Arabic for Alhambra and Eshbiliya is Seville. The third target, Vinnel, is the name of the U.S. company whose workers make up most of its residents. The company does contracting work for the Saudi national guard. Powell was greeted on his arrival by Prince Saud, the Saudi foreign minister, who expressed his sorrow and vowed to cooperate with the United States in fighting terrorism. "It is no consolation, but these things happen everywhere," Saud said. "It should increase our efforts and should make us not hesitate to take whatever measures that are needed to oppose these people, who know only hate, only killing." An intelligence official in Washington said information from the past two weeks indicated al-Qaida had been planning a strike in Saudi Arabia, bin Laden's birthplace and home to Islam's holiest sites. State Department officials said the American school in Riyadh would be closed and advised Americans to remain at home until further notice. Earlier this month, the State Department advised Americans to avoid travel to Saudi Arabia because of increased terrorism concerns, and the U.S. Embassy said it had information that terrorists were completing plans to attack American interests in the country. The FBI said it would send investigators once it gets clearance from the Saudi government. The Interior Minister, Prince Nayef, told Saudi newspapers the assailants were believed to be linked to the May 6 discovery of a large weapons cache. The Saudi government was seeking 19 suspects in that case - 17 Saudis, a Yemeni, and an Iraqi with Kuwaiti and Canadian citizenship - that it believed received orders directly from bin Laden. The government said the group had been planning to use the seized weapons to attack the Saudi royal family as well as American and British interests. The gated communities attacked Monday were in the same part of the city where the May 6 weapons seizure was made. Justice Department and FBI officials had no immediate indication that other attacks might be planned against U.S. interests at home or abroad. Nayef told al-Watan that one of the weapons case suspects surrendered - it was unclear when - and was being interrogated for information about Monday's explosions. So far he had offered "limited information," Nayef said. A previously unknown Saudi group, the Mujahedeen in the Arabian Peninsula, had linked itself to the cache. Over the weekend, it vowed on an Internet site to strike American targets worldwide. It was not clear whether the Riyadh attacks were linked to the group. Tuesday's small blast went off near the headquarters of the Saudi Maintenance Company, also known as Siyanco. The company is a jointly owned by Frank E. Basil Inc., of Washington, and local Saudi partners, officials said. Last month, an American civilian working for the Saudi Royal Navy was attacked and slightly injured in eastern Saudi Arabia. In 1996, a truck bombing killed 19 Americans at the Khobar Towers barracks in Dhahran. In 1995, a car bomb exploded at a U.S.-run military training facility in Riyadh, killing seven, including five American advisers to the Saudi national guard. The Islamic Movement for Change and two smaller groups claimed responsibility.

	13-05-2003 21:17									#45
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quote: Originally posted by Spiffor The police had mentioned that 17 members of this group bound to Al Qaeda were of Saudi nationality."[/i]

The wahabists are evil hate spewing facist scum. By proping up the Saudi royal family we are shaking hands with the devil. I know the house of Saud is preferable to a fundie government but, let's face facts here, they are the supporter and spreader of the worst fundamentalist religion on earth (wahabism) and they turn a blind eye to Islamic terrorism unless the US absolutely pushes them to into a corner.

	13-05-2003 21:22									#46
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From the BBC:

Riyadh bomb victims
7 Americans
7 Saudis
2 Jordanians
2 Filipinos
1 Lebanese
1 Swiss

Those numbers do not include the nine suicide bombers.

	13-05-2003 21:22									#47
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin The wahabists are evil hate spewing facist scum. By proping up the Saudi royal family we are shaking hands with the devil. I know the house of Saud is preferable to a fundie government but, let's face facts here, they are the supporter and spreader of the worst fundamentalist religion on earth (wahabism) and they turn a blind eye to Islamic terrorism unless the US absolutely pushes them to into a corner.

and if certain people weren't connected to Saudi oil money, perhaps we'd be doing something about it

	13-05-2003 21:30									#48
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, Oerdin, I don't think this adds up to 90.

	13-05-2003 21:31									#49
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maybe that's just confirmed deaths... i.e. bodies that have been identified...

	13-05-2003 21:31									#50
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Every US admistration has kissed the Saudi's butt, Sava. Not once has the EU or the US made more than the tiniest peep against the repressive Saudis. We need them and they know it.

	13-05-2003 21:33									#51
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel , Oerdin, I don't think this adds up to 90.

It adds up to 29 which is the death toll currently reported by the BBC.

	13-05-2003 21:36									#52
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quote: Originally posted by gunkulator Every US admistration has kissed the Saudi's butt, Sava. Not once has the EU or the US made more than the tiniest peep against the repressive Saudis.

Yes

quote: We need them and they know it.

I don't think this is the case. I just think it would require more effort to handle the Saudi problem in other, more effective ways.

	13-05-2003 21:42									#53
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As long as peole in thic country want gas under 2 bucks a gallon forever, we will continue to kiss Saud ass, and the fact of the matter is that the second most powerful group in saudi Arabia today are not western style liberals, but the Islamists, which just means we will be kissing Saud ass until they somehow can build a western leaning middle class strong enough to beat the Islamists.

On the Shiite front: I don't think the Shiites in Iraq will move very quickly toward s an Islamist state like Iran, though that is better than some ohter possibilities. But I think LoTM that you overestimate how much the US can do to stop iranian influence. We don;t even have enough resources to bring back law and order yet, far less start trying to confront one of the largest and best organized Iraqi exile groups.

	13-05-2003 21:52									#54
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The best thing we can do to stop the fundies is to turn Iraq into a successful pro-western capitalist state where (like in Turkey) the western trained military enforces a seporation between religion and state.

If we can get Iraq's economy moving and keep it's government teaching the people not to hate everyone who's different then the Arab world will finally have a positive role model.

	13-05-2003 21:53									#55
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quote: the western trained military enforces a seporation between religion and state.

Imagine that...

	13-05-2003 21:56									#56
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin It adds up to 29 which is the death toll currently reported by the BBC.

Libération also talks about "at least 25 dead".
I suppose there are 2 different source : the State Department and the Saudi authorities.

	13-05-2003 22:00									#57
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin The best thing we can do to stop the fundies is to turn Iraq into a successful pro-western capitalist state where (like in Turkey) the western trained military enforces a seporation between religion and state. If we can get Iraq's economy moving and keep it's government teaching the people not to hate everyone who's different then the Arab world will finally have a positive role model.

Oh, you mean like turkey the country were an Islamist party won the elctions, and which commits human rightsa buses exactl due to that army you gush about? I mean, its noty like turkey ever had problems with terrorism...... Or perhaps like Algeria, were the army kept the Islamist out of government even when they won the elctions, leading to a terror campaign that killed 100,000? Oh, as long as the dead are Arabs, who gives a rats ass, right?

The best we can do for Iraq is lay down the foundations for a peaceful civil society and rule of law, and go with whatever the Iraqis decide for themselves, in the long run.

	13-05-2003 22:23									#58
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The State department is reporting 90 dead right now, with the possibility that more died.

And the Chechnya bomb deathtoll went to 52.

	13-05-2003 22:28									#59
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we're like SOO suitable to be a target right now.

	13-05-2003 22:32									#60
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Gepap: I haven't gushed about anyone and, yes, as bad as that situation is it is still the best we can hope for.