02-07-2003 02:13									#31
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He would be whining even more if deployed as a cop in US inner cities.

Now a hypothetical question to you all:

Suppose the US government (including the other 50 states) decide that Californians need to be disarmed despite high crime rate, send in 200,000 troops, and perform door-to-door intrusive weapon searches, how many attacks on these troops would happen?

	02-07-2003 02:14									#32
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quote: Originally posted by GePap And who are we going to be using to occupy Iraq but reservists? After all, The prez. said all this about bringing the noys back home. Someone has to take their place.

thats a good question - if this is COMMON in the reserves, there are going to be big questions in the Pentagon about US force structure.

I dont think they were planning on replacing most of the guys over there with reservists though - generally we dont like to put reservists on long tours abroad, IIUC. The 3rd ID and the Marines are supposed to come back. The original Pentagon plan was to reduce total force levels, using the INC folks to organize local police and security. For a variety of political reasons the INC is not being used that way, and so there arent enough troops. We may well invite non-coalition of the willing troops in, even at the cost of some loss of political control. (French oil companies, youre in luck) Or if necessary send in more active units - the 1st Infantry is available - in order to get the 3rd ID out.

	02-07-2003 02:15									#33
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quote: In general the military in Iraq has been damned good at adjusting to situations not typical of the US - going for days with only MREs, no showers, getting shot at, out of contact with families etc. All kinds of things. So the guy seems a contrast to the combat troops who won the war.

But this is not a combat team, and the guys who will be running Iraq won't be doing combat either. this is a man who has to get the country back together, and those 19 year olds with guns aren't the ones who are going to do it.

Oh, and before the war you did hear a lot about troops wanting to get on with it so they could go back home (a lot of such reports in mid-march). How many of them tought they would be forced ot remain in Iraq for months more after the war ended?

	02-07-2003 02:18									#34
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quote: Originally posted by GePap HOnestly, what do you expect? Americans are not very good at adapting to non-American situations, and those in the military are not going to be different.

i dont think that is very fiar to generalize that broadly. I dont think americans are any worse at adapting to foreign situations than anyone else

	02-07-2003 02:18									#35
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Well, being an American citizen, and having lived here for over 50% of my life? hmmm? quote: Been a long time since you visited some of the "nether districts" of NYC, eh GePap? A guy from the worst parts of this city would go to Paris and complain still (people are rude, the waiters are slow, where can I get a good burger, why do people smell..). Now take them to Baghdad.

yup thats why americans never pay to visit Paris, and if they do they never come back. And the dirt and crime account for why no one goes to Tiajuana or other border towns. And you never meet Americans at youth hostels overseas. Etc.

Arent generalizations great?

	02-07-2003 02:22									#36
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quote: Originally posted by GePap quote: In general the military in Iraq has been damned good at adjusting to situations not typical of the US - going for days with only MREs, no showers, getting shot at, out of contact with families etc. All kinds of things. So the guy seems a contrast to the combat troops who won the war. But this is not a combat team, and the guys who will be running Iraq won't be doing combat either. this is a man who has to get the country back together, and those 19 year olds with guns aren't the ones who are going to do it. Oh, and before the war you did hear a lot about troops wanting to get on with it so they could go back home (a lot of such reports in mid-march). How many of them tought they would be forced ot remain in Iraq for months more after the war ended?

i dont think being a combat team has much to do with it- lots of the regular military is non-combat as well, and i havent heard this sort of thing from them.

Ultimately its Iraqis who have to run Iraq - and from the article, are quite eager to. How much we rely on reservists for MP duty I dont know - quite frankly nothing this guy said indicated that hed do a better job working with local cops than young combat sergeant.

and i have nothing against them wanting to go home - its more this guys general attitude.

	02-07-2003 02:27									#37
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Ultimately its Iraqis who have to run Iraq - and from the article, are quite eager to. How much we rely on reservists for MP duty I dont know - quite frankly nothing this guy said indicated that hed do a better job working with local cops than young combat sergeant.

A young combat captain has no practice in training police, and would porbalby do a much worse job. As for Iraqis taking over the country, fine sentiment, but is what you want is a pro-US secular democratic Arab state, then that is not going to happen anytime soon.

	02-07-2003 02:27									#38
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Oh, and before the war you did hear a lot about troops wanting to get on with it so they could go back home (a lot of such reports in mid-march). How many of them tought they would be forced ot remain in Iraq for months more after the war ended?

How many of them expected the war to be "over" that fast? BTW - who said the war ended - major combat operations ended, the war hasnt ended, obviously.

	02-07-2003 02:30									#39
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Oh, so now the war hasn't ended. Hmm, so I guess those guys who thought that the war would be under 2 months were wrong, we are at 3 months and counting? r did I miss the whole victory plane flight and the declarations that Iraq had been liberated?Actually, I think most people did expect this war to be done with wuickly, and for the troops to be back home promptly, including the majority of troops themselves. After all, they are soldiers, not peacekeepers or policemen.

	02-07-2003 02:35									#40
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quote: Originally posted by GePap A young combat captain has no practice in training police, and would porbalby do a much worse job. As for Iraqis taking over the country, fine sentiment, but is what you want is a pro-US secular democratic Arab state, then that is not going to happen anytime soon.

doesnt sound like this guy is doing any training, so i cant see how anyone could be doing a worse job.

I want a democratic Iraq. It doesnt have to be pro-US. And it doesnt have to have a wall of seperation between church and state. As far as I can tell Ayatollah Sistani and most Shiites want a democratic state, as do almost all the Kurds and quite a few Sunni Arabs. But time will tell.

	02-07-2003 02:36									#41
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Oh, so now the war hasn't ended. Hmm, so I guess those guys who thought that the war would be under 2 months

citation please.

	02-07-2003 02:39									#42
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Oh, so now the war hasn't ended. Hmm, so I guess those guys who thought that the war would be under 2 months were wrong, we are at 3 months and counting? r did I miss the whole victory plane flight and the declarations that Iraq had been liberated?.

Iraq is liberated - have you noticed that Iraqis are constantly speaking their minds, whether its against Saddam, against the US, for Sistani, against Sistani, for Chalabi, against Chalabi, etc? But its not at peace.

	02-07-2003 02:42									#43
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quote: citation please.

Look up the polls we did pre-war. I will not bother. And that was here.

We are in the post war situation currently, not still fighting the war. Not even this admin. will call what is currently going on "war".

quote: doesnt sound like this guy is doing any training, so i cant see how anyone could be doing a worse job.

He has to train and manague, with the purpose of remaking the Iraqi police. And yes, there are many people who could do much worse than him, including both of us.

quote: I want a democratic Iraq. It doesnt have to be pro-US. And it doesnt have to have a wall of seperation between church and state. As far as I can tell Ayatollah Sistani and most Shiites want a democratic state, as do almost all the Kurds and quite a few Sunni Arabs. But time will tell.

The US does not go to war simply to install dmeocracies: we go to war to instal friends. As for the Kurds, they might want a dmeocracy, but the question is, one of thier own, or as part of Iraq. Remember that this admin. pledged Iraq's territorial integrity.

	02-07-2003 02:47									#44
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I don't think that US forces are necessarily the best for peacekeeping/policing. The British army has had far more experience in this (primarily in Northern Ireland) and is seemingly coping better, barring the incident the other week.

The whole going out in full body armor in groups of armored vehicles, as well as not attempting to learn the language and customs by the looks of it, instead of the British socalled "softly softly" approach of 3 soldiers on foot or opentopped jeeps, in fatigues and berets, probably does not induce nice feelings in the local population.

	02-07-2003 02:48									#45
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quote: Originally posted by GePap quote: citation please. :The US does not go to war simply to install dmeocracies: we go to war to instal friends. As for the Kurds, they might want a dmeocracy, but the question is, one of thier own, or as part of Iraq. Remember that this admin. pledged Iraq's territorial integrity.

in this instance a democracy of any kind is in our interests - ANY democracy creates momentum for change in Iran, Saudi etc.

And of course you did not ask what the US went to war for - you asked what I wanted for Iraq. I would really appreciate if you would stop consistently twisting the subject when we discuss something. It really isnt cute anymore.

Re: the Kurds. Their quite intelligent enough to see that an independent Kurdish state would be overrun by Turkey, and that their best hope is autonomy withing a federal Iraq. And they have been making it clear that they feel that way since well before the war, and consistently since the war. Despite that those who wanted to believe the war could lead only to disaster have consistently ignored this.

Now if you want to go on about pre-war expectations, i may just go back and search for some things that were posted here. And see how they look now.

	02-07-2003 02:50									#46
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actually spreybear, our resident soldier here, said before he left that he expected to be in Iraq for a year doing policing duties. i dont know how many servicemen shared his thoughts, but he made it sound like he was told this by superior officers or somethn.

	02-07-2003 02:57									#47
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I don't think that US forces are necessarily the best for peacekeeping/policing. The British army has had far more experience in this (primarily in Northern Ireland) and is seemingly coping better, barring the incident the other week.

The US is doing OK in the Shia areas too, and aren't wearing body armor or helmets anymore. Not that the UK doesn't have more experience in the matter, but anecdotal reports from Basra suggest that the security situation is still very sketchy. I guess a lot of this is just a general settling down with a passage of time.

Re the MP sargeant, the main reason why I object to his attitude is that it precludes success of any sort. It seems cancerous to me.

Re Sprayber, I can only hope that his superiors take a more constructive attitude toward it all and look out for the morale of him and his guys.

Last edited by DanS on 02-07-2003 at 03:12

	02-07-2003 03:00									#48
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark in this instance a democracy of any kind is in our interests - ANY democracy creates momentum for change in Iran, Saudi etc.

Not really. If the new dmeocracy in Iraq turns out to be Islamist, it gives the sauds a good excuse to cut back on dem. hte same one used in turkey and Algeria, that at this point, democracy means Islamist states and thus democracy is not for now.

quote: And of course you did not ask what the US went to war for - you asked what I wanted for Iraq. I would really appreciate if you would stop consistently twisting the subject when we discuss something. It really isnt cute anymore.

Please. I did not actually care what you want. This admin. makes the case that what they want is a democractic, friendly, secular state. What they say they want is what matters, since that is what will drive policy, not what you or I want.

quote: Re: the Kurds. Their quite intelligent enough to see that an independent Kurdish state would be overrun by Turkey, and that their best hope is autonomy withing a federal Iraq. And they have been making it clear that they feel that way since well before the war, and consistently since the war. Despite that those who wanted to believe the war could lead only to disaster have consistently ignored this.

Actually, the last thing I read about the Kurds (and one barely hears anythign anymore), most Kurds interviewed wanted teir own state and were simply paying along for now. As for Turkey overrunning them, I am sure that would be arisk to take to satisfy nationalistic ambitions.

quote: Now if you want to go on about pre-war expectations, i may just go back and search for some things that were posted here. And see how they look now.

I said I don't care to look back. If you care, go ahead and look. I think i came out rather well in my few predictions.

	02-07-2003 03:02									#49
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heres what one poster posted here on March 11th in response to a request for worst case scenarios:

"Realisitc worst case scenerios?

Iraq blows the oil fields, Kurds and Turks fight each other in northern Iraq, with the Iranians allowing more third parties in. Fighting in Baghdad bogs down, leading to massive civilian casualties. Massive anti-Us protests world-wide, massive anti-Us demonstratiuons world wide, especially in the ME. Both Israel and NK exploit the time to do something "unwise". Tony Blair kicked out of power due to disasters in the ground. US eventually wins, but the whole area is in an uproar.

The only good part of this view: Bush precidency ends Jan 2005."

Now granted this was a worst case scenario, but the poster specified "realistic"

Lets see what happened
1. Oil field captured largely intact, problems with pipelines and support infrastructure, oil flowing with 8 weeks
2. No fighting between Turks and Kurds. Kurdistan the quietist place in Iraq.
3. Fighting in Baghdad is bogged down, in the sense that we have ongoing problems with fedayeen there and elsewhere in the Sunni arab belt. I wonder if this is what the poster meant.
4. Massive civilian casualties- no.
5. Massive anti us protests - no. (more like massive Anti-ayatollah protests)
6. Israel does something unwise - well there are some folks who consider making a deal with Abu Mazen unwise, but i dont, so id say no. Nkor continues with their pre-war policies (which were never all that wise)
7. Tony Blair still in power, though apparently brits are unhappy about service delivery.
8. Area in an uproar - well Iran is, the rest of the region no.

	02-07-2003 03:05									#50
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark yup thats why americans never pay to visit Paris, and if they do they never come back. And the dirt and crime account for why no one goes to Tiajuana or other border towns. And you never meet Americans at youth hostels overseas. Etc. Arent generalizations great?

Oh lord. There is a vast difference between going on a trip to see the sights and caring to stay long and live the local life. I mean, i know thousand of Americans have decided to make Tijuana their permanent residence....

quote: As for Iraqis taking over the country, fine sentiment, but is what you want is a pro-US secular democratic Arab state, then that is not going to happen anytime soon

As for this phrase: the porblem being the English language; "if what one wants" would work the same, and was the meaning intended.

	02-07-2003 03:06									#51
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Not really. If the new dmeocracy in Iraq turns out to be Islamist, it gives the sauds a good excuse to cut back on dem. hte same one used in turkey and Algeria, that at this point, democracy means Islamist states and thus democracy is not for now. [.

whats islamist? just about every state in the middle east has sharia covering family and inheritance law, and some govt involvement with waqfs, etc. If you mean an islamist state like in Iran, i'd agree with you. But the odds on that are pretty low - clearly the Sistani and most of the shiite leadership dont want that.

	02-07-2003 03:07									#52
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark heres what one poster posted here on March 11th in response to a request for worst case scenarios: Now granted this was a worst case scenario, but the poster specified "realistic"

And given the believed data present in March 11, can you point out why it was NOt realisitc at the point, specially given "worst case"?

I am sorry, but this is a sad attempt at "a point".

	02-07-2003 03:08									#53
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quote: Originally posted by GePap quote: Re: the Kurds. Their quite intelligent enough to see that an independent Kurdish state would be overrun by Turkey, and that their best hope is autonomy withing a federal Iraq. And they have been making it clear that they feel that way since well before the war, and consistently since the war. Despite that those who wanted to believe the war could lead only to disaster have consistently ignored this. Actually, the last thing I read about the Kurds (and one barely hears anythign anymore), most Kurds interviewed wanted teir own state and were simply paying along for now. As for Turkey overrunning them, I am sure that would be arisk to take to satisfy nationalistic ambitions. .

Citation please? My sense is that theyd like their own state in the best possible world, but are realistic enought to see that is not possible.

	02-07-2003 03:09									#54
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Oh lord. There is a vast difference between going on a trip to see the sights and caring to stay long and live the local life. I mean, i know thousand of Americans have decided to make Tijuana their permanent residence....

Excuse me - you were the one who brought up an american VISITING Paris not me. Not cute,

	02-07-2003 03:11									#55
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark whats islamist? just about every state in the middle east has sharia covering family and inheritance law, and some govt involvement with waqfs, etc. If you mean an islamist state like in Iran, i'd agree with you. But the odds on that are pretty low - clearly the Sistani and most of the shiite leadership dont want that.

Islamist, as in political aprties that openyl associate with Islam, you know, like the ones that won the elections in Algeria that were propmtly cancelled by the
Army back then, or the party that came to power in turkey in either 95 or 97, i ofrget which, who's leader was forced to resign from office under pressure by the Generals, or the current ruling party in turkey.

quote: Citation please? My sense is that theyd like their own state in the best possible world, but are realistic enought to see that is not possible.

I am not going to pay to link to old articles from the NY times to satisfy you. If you have a payed subscription to their archives, look up the last 5 articles written about the Kurds by the Times.

	02-07-2003 03:13									#56
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Excuse me - you were the one who brought up an american VISITING Paris not me. Not cute,

I brought up American complaining about the service in Paris when they visit. Saying that people go to Paris is not an arguement against saying they might not take or like many aspects of local culture thsat happen to be there, which was the arguement you tried to make.

	02-07-2003 03:15									#57
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heres my prewar prediction


"this is along the lines of what i think - said afganistan, on the idead that there will be a loose coalition formed with lots of US involvement/encouragement/manipulation - I wasnt thinking of the kind of geographic decentralization/war lordism you have in afgan - i agrre thats not likely here. But i think there will be no national elections anytime soon, but there will still be an attempt to get Iraqis involved seriously in the larger running of the country. Also maybe local elections as a start.

Will there be a shiite rebellion - dount it - Aytollah Bakr, the leader of SCIRI hasnt made any noises in that direction, and has been working with the rest of the opposition. If he launches a rebellion there are only 2 possibilities - 1. he loses 2 he succeeds, but ends up dependent on Iran as protector. If he refrains from rebelling he will probably end up as a major leader, and ultimately possibly president, of a united Iraq, under the protection of a US which will gradually turn away when its regional objectives are accomplished. I think the situation is quite different from Lebanon - in lebanon the Shiites are smaller per cent of the population. The israelis occupation was far more unpopular than I expect the US occupation to be, for a variety of reasons. Also the the Shiites in Lebanon were originally divided between Hezb and Amal (?) Hezb rise to prominence is associated to issues of Syrian intervention that dont apply in Iraq."

so far i think im right - hakim and Sistani are anxious for the US to leave, but are not supporting violence, which is largely confind to sunni arab areas.

And of the 56 respondents to the poll, only one expected free and fair elections immediately. Most chose options that either implied a sustained occupation, or a quagmire.

	02-07-2003 03:17									#58
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I brought up American complaining about the service in Paris when they visit. Saying that people go to Paris is not an arguement against saying they might not take or like many aspects of local culture thsat happen to be there, which was the arguement you tried to make.

i cant imagine the person you described wanting to go back.

	02-07-2003 03:17									#59
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You guys are getting way off the beaten path, here. My thread is being Fez'ed.

	02-07-2003 03:19									#60
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Islamist, as in political aprties that openyl associate with Islam, you know, like the ones that won the elections in Algeria that were propmtly cancelled by the Army back then, or the party that came to power in turkey in either 95 or 97, i ofrget which, who's leader was forced to resign from office under pressure by the Generals, or the current ruling party in turkey. [

if its islamist like the current ruling party in Turkey that would be very good. We dont know what Algeria would have been like under their islamist party, due to the coup - we cant be sure based on their generally positive record in municipalities.