06-07-2003 05:38									#31
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It's only a matter of time until a good part of the shiite population has enough of your occupation regime. Your presence is also an invitation for every nutty fundie to target your troops.

I don't look at it that way. The great majority of people may feed us a bunch of rhetoric, but they can see and recognize progress. So the goal is to show continuous progress. It's tough.

But how much do you want to bet our good Republican friends want to set that up as the model for their free-market Iraqi democracy?

Actually, I think that's what they're going for, at least at first. Socialized medicine, even though the medical system currently is a public/private hybrid, etc. I guess the biggest thing is that we've got to be able to insert a lot of money into the South quickly. The South really does have a lot of people in it--cities of surprising size.

	06-07-2003 05:43									#32
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Basically, just providing density of coverage and some rotation to secure areas for the forward deployed MP's and grunts on security duty.

Another big point is how much mass you can put on a problem area. Instead of a brigade task force scraped together (and thinning a lot of other areas out) when the *******s get uppity in Fallujah, I'd like to see a reaction force of two full divisions be able to go to one of those cities and essentially lock the whole place down - make sure nobody can take a **** without American soldiers being there, and that you can't step out of your house without seeing at least a couple of armored vehicles and some additional troops.

And literally sweep every building, every block, and lock it down so there's no back infiltration. Control rooftops, sewers, probe for tunnels, jam off radios, and let the bastards know who their daddy is now. Confiscate all the unauthorized weapons, ID everyone who appears to be of interest, and reward the general populace for putting up with the inconvenience by giving them food, medical attention, fixing water treatment and water supply while they're there.

The goal is double-edged: Show them massive force like they've never seen or imagined existed, but at the same time, show them there's something to gain by cooperation and compliance, not by defiance.

	06-07-2003 06:20									#33
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The power of political Islam is also at work: read some of Kristoff's columns in the NYTimes. More and more women in the south women have to cover up, liquor stores closed, so forth and so on. They may not be heading for an Iran style Clerical rule, but this is not the same secualrism of the old regime, and that may cause porblems in the south long term, plus I agree with MtG that the Kurds are bidding their time, and that an idependent Kurdistan is their overall goal.

	06-07-2003 07:20									#34
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According to The Economist the strategy for rebuilding the economy is to increase payments to Iraqis and to import consumer goods. It seems to me that all the money paid to Iraqis will just leave the country as Iraqis buy the imported goods. What they need to do is create some domestic industry as well as increase payments to Iraqis. Imported goods should be kept to a minimum, especially consumer goods.

	06-07-2003 07:39									#35
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Establishment of broad-based consumer oriented domestic industry will take years.

Ultimately, if the Iraqis handle their oil revenues well, they could become a net creditor nation and have relatively low imports.

	06-07-2003 08:51									#36
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It seems to me that all the money paid to Iraqis will just leave the country as Iraqis buy the imported goods.

But this isn't a problem with any oil economy. What else are they going to do with the dollars, other than buy imported goods and equipment? Burn them for heating?

	06-07-2003 08:53									#37
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Purchase US treasuries.

	06-07-2003 08:57									#38
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Yeh, but that gets boring after a while.

	06-07-2003 13:56									#39
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat We can't withdraw.

You can't stay either.

Nice quagmire.

	06-07-2003 17:46									#40
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Well, "withdraw" implied leave before we've done whatever it is we're supposedly doing.

Once we've done whatever we're supposedly doing, whatever it may be and whenever that happens, then we can hold a little parade and leave.

	06-07-2003 17:54									#41
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Having no clue what to do there makes it easy to find some excuse for a job finished. But it makes it hard to make that excuse credible.

And maybe the neocons want to stay there forever? Who knows...

	06-07-2003 18:22									#42
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Killed People are never good News.

	06-07-2003 22:47									#43
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Having no clue what to do there makes it easy to find some excuse for a job finished. But it makes it hard to make that excuse credible.

Essentially we just have to install our lackeys and be able to keep them from getting assassinated or deposed for some period of time so that it's not tooo immediate.

quote: And maybe the neocons want to stay there forever? Who knows...

No, for two reasons: Direct imperialism is out, imperialism by proxy is in, and if we stay there, we won't have enough people to go somewhere else.

	06-07-2003 22:47									#44
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quote: Originally posted by Main_Brain Killed People are never good News.

They are if they're the enemy. If they don't want to get their asses killed, then don't **** with us, it's that simple.

	06-07-2003 22:51									#45
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this isn't good news... when people stop dying... that will be good news.

	06-07-2003 22:55									#46
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat They are if they're the enemy. If they don't want to get their asses killed, then don't **** with us, it's that simple.

But American forces and their collaborators are the enemy of Iraqi nationalists... and so it goes...

Latest word - between 7 and 10 American trained Iraqi police were killed when their HQ was blown up. About 30 injured. This may discourage Iraqis from embracing their liberators...

	06-07-2003 22:59									#47
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat Essentially we just have to install our lackeys and be able to keep them from getting assassinated or deposed for some period of time so that it's not tooo immediate.

An easy goal in comparison to the rhetoric. Of course, it will reaffirm all suspicions about American imperialism.

"No, for two reasons: Direct imperialism is out, imperialism by proxy is in, and if we stay there, we won't have enough people to go somewhere else. "

Yeah, but that's a logical argument, and I was talking about the neocons.

	06-07-2003 23:01									#48
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quote: Originally posted by Uncle Sparky But American forces and their collaborators are the enemy of Iraqi nationalists... and so it goes...

So far, there doesn't seem to be many Iraqi nationalists fighting - although that may come later.

Baath party loyalists who don't like not being able to dominate the rest of the populace seem to be the predominant "resistance" so far. **** 'em, they can go along with the program, or take it up with Allah.

BTW, Savita, tell 'em to stop shooting, and we won't have to shoot them either. Meanwhile, this is the real world, not the video for Tiptoe through the Tulips.

	06-07-2003 23:06									#49
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler An easy goal in comparison to the rhetoric. Of course, it will reaffirm all suspicions about American imperialism.

What do you mean "reaffirm" - there was some wavering at some point?

quote: Yeah, but that's a logical argument, and I was talking about the neocons.

The neocons seem to have been spanked and sent to their rooms without their supper lately. Maybe I haven't been paying attention and have missed it, but the amount of mouth-running seems to be a bit less.

	06-07-2003 23:10									#50
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"What do you mean "reaffirm" - there was some wavering at some point?"

Well oddly enough, there are some people who give the Wannabe-Imperium the benefit of the doubt regarding Iraq. I don't understand that either, but well...

"Maybe I haven't been paying attention and have missed it, but the amount of mouth-running seems to be a bit less."

I haven't got that impression. But maybe they are just resting.

	06-07-2003 23:47									#51
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The neocons seem to have been spanked and sent to their rooms without their supper lately. Maybe I haven't been paying attention and have missed it, but the amount of mouth-running seems to be a bit less.

Yes, this seems to be the case. And it is proper that they now spend their energies eating what is on our plate. Quite a meal.

	06-07-2003 23:53									#52
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"And it is proper that they now spend their energies eating what is on our plate."

Stop scaring me.

	07-07-2003 00:17									#54
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quote: Originally posted by DanS It seems to me that all the money paid to Iraqis will just leave the country as Iraqis buy the imported goods. But this isn't a problem with any oil economy. What else are they going to do with the dollars, other than buy imported goods and equipment? Burn them for heating?

Maybe instead of paying some people more they should pay more people, because the money is not going to circulate through the economy if the people who have it are just buying imports.

	07-07-2003 00:55									#55
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Either your post is incomprehensible, or I just don't understand what you're getting at.

You say that the Iraqis shouldn't import so much, but this is silly. What else are they going to do with the Dollars that their oil commands? Paper their houses with it? Buy US government bonds? (Colon: ) Dinars never "leave the country".

	07-07-2003 21:42									#56
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Two more KIA's overnight (our time), both from 1AD.

	07-07-2003 21:47									#57
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Apparently, we captured one of the attackers in one of the ambushes, while killing one other. Eventually, some will make mistakes under questioning, and hopefully we can roll some of this stuff up.

Also, one can guess that the CIA and the military are making progress at developing informants and other methods on the ground.

	07-07-2003 23:03									#58
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This a fantasy, there is no "insurgency,' this is Saddam's plan in it's final stage.

Iraqis are afraid to point out the guys doing this, they fear retribution, and believe we will leave them in the lurch, like in 91, and places like Vietnam and Somalia.

This whole thing is in a rough Triangle from Baghdad to Tikrit, to I think it's called Falleusah (probaly spelled that wrong). The area also happens to be Saddam's home tribal area, and the people who got the most from Saddam's regime.

There is only one way to stop this, you have to get Iraqis into the police and military and get Saddam.

	08-07-2003 00:05									#59
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quote: Originally posted by Chris 62 There is only one way to stop this, you have to get Iraqis into the police and military

	08-07-2003 23:02									#60
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I remember in the first Gulf War, a CNN correspondent made a small but telling slip. After a day's hard fighting, he declared that allied troops had secured a key objective but that only 12 people were injured: 6 Americans and 6 British.

Mull it over.