02-08-2003 22:09									#31
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I'm just glad to see a Finn who is so willing to sacrifice American lives for a cause.

	02-08-2003 22:29									#32
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Boris (and GePap), that's where Iraq's oil does become important. Once it's up to capacity, it can both supply us in the event of a Saudi embargo (or blockade), and break the Saudis on price. Plus, the new Iraqi government can pick up the Saudi slack on arms sales. We have been after Saudi almost from 9-11...but we needed Iraq first.

Yeah, and that rosy scenerio is 5-10 years away, assuming of course that in the meantime we don't end up with an anti-US Iraq, or the country does not fall apart. Plus Iraq does not have as much oil, so the Saus will remain the single most powerful oil market actor.

Edit: and the Iraqis would not benefit themsleves form a long term slump in prices: their inetrest vis a vi oil match nicely with saudi interests, not US interests. Unless we make sure Iraqi is nothing but a US crony that serves as a gas pump...but then, that involves other issues.

And again, who takes over in Saudi Arabia once the Saud's fall? Those numerous and powerfull saudi moderates?

	02-08-2003 22:50									#33
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Given that "Saudi Arabia" is really nothing more than an invention of the British Empire, I'm sure we can come up with something...

	02-08-2003 22:51									#34
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quote: Stuff has been leaking.

As others have stated, stuff doesn't leak too much from this administration unless it was planned to be leaked. I wonder what they're planning against SA... hmmm...

	02-08-2003 23:10									#35
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quote: Iraq does not have as much oil, so the Saus will remain the single most powerful oil market actor.

Single being the key word, and only as long as Saudi remains in its current form.

	02-08-2003 23:12									#36
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Boris, Well give me your passport and I'll go too

All I'm saying is that we need to do what we say we'd do. How's the most powerful man in the world going to look if he doesn't do what he says, when the task is not very complicated, and it is very doable?
It will have bad effects throughout the world not to attack. It creates an image of hypocrites.

But we don't have to lose the game. We need to put priorities first. I'd say first priorities should be helping Afghanistan and Iraq right now. And then we go after SA with hard determinetion to win.

IF NOT, then I don't honestly see what the point with the whole war on terrorism is. We can't leave the biggest ones free. I trust this matter will be taken cared of though.

	02-08-2003 23:17									#37
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http://www.atlapedia.com/online/map...udi_etc_pol.jpg

I just want this handy, for future discussions.

	02-08-2003 23:18									#38
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quote: Originally posted by Pekka It creates an image of hypocrites.

I think the image of hypocrisy for this administration is pretty much fact, given its actions. Steel tarriffs, restricting liberties, ignoring state's rights when convenient, and now covering up the Saudi link to 9/11 after so desperately trying to link Iraq to Al-Queda (and failing). Hypocrisy, thy name is Bush!

	02-08-2003 23:19									#39
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I'll try that again as an attachment...

Attachment: saudi_etc_pol.jpg
This has been downloaded 126 time(s).

	02-08-2003 23:20									#40
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Well, we certainly couldn't hit Saudi while our bases were still there -- that had to wait until Iraq was secure.

	02-08-2003 23:22									#41
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Naturally put on a full pressure. Attack is not 100% necessary. But we need more than talk, we need SA to show actions and real effort to take out terrorists. I mean if we just attack, well the terrorists are going nowhere and we'd just have another mess in our hands and maybe destroyed infrastructure and heavy casualties as in SA's side, and whole bunch of new enemies. Full cooperation demands, and no excuses.

I figure we could give this one more to special ops, maybe few PMC's.. no need to send 300 000 strong army there. Get SA's full permission to strike terrorists where ever they are based on our own intelligence.
Because they're not doing it, and not willing to do it.

It could even be a new direction of fighting this war on terrorism. No need to invade countries with big army, just use minimum personel, try to attack directly on terrorists. Avoid pissing of the whole population.

	02-08-2003 23:23									#42
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov ignoring state's rights when convenient,

I thought this concept was killed long ago anyway. What's left for them to ignore?

	02-08-2003 23:24									#43
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Boris, well that is your opinion. My opinion is that they have a good effort going on and it's a hard task to do.
Few mistakes has been made, but now it's a good time to straigthen up few misconceptions, that is giving doublestandards to known terrorist harbours. I bet they already have all the plans for it, but they are just looking ways to do it and analyzing possibilities.

and if my opinion is not wanted because I'm not American, or that I don't have a say in this, then fine.
American lives, someones lives, this is international thing. And my real name is Pekka, so you can call me that.

Last edited by Pekka on 02-08-2003 at 23:49

	02-08-2003 23:52									#44
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I tend to agree with Gepap... for the US to do an about-face and actually do something about Saudi Arabia is so unlikely it's almost funny.

Yes, politicians are hypocrites. No news there.

	03-08-2003 01:26									#45
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Why does everyone think that SA's border is permanent?

	03-08-2003 03:42									#46
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Ok, wiseasses, Saudi Arabis, is bad. What do you want to about it? Maybe we should invade! I am sure the Moslems would loooooove seeing US Marines storming Mecca...

Fact is, only opposition to the SA government is even worse.

	03-08-2003 04:02									#47
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Invasion wont be necessary.

Without our support, the regime will collapse on its own.

Unless the next government is stable (and let me assure you, it won't be), governance of that territory will fall to someone else.

No, not us. Look at the map.

See all those little countries ringing Saudi?

Imagine them not so little.

Especially Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and possibly Jordan.

	03-08-2003 04:06									#48
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I'd really doubt that. Any government replacing the Saudi Crown would likely be Islamic Fundamentalist, and anyone trying to invade because of that would bring on the wrath of fundamentalists at home and in SA.

	03-08-2003 04:11									#49
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Which fundamentalists?

Which tribe?

Which family?

When the house of Saud comes down, the infighting is going to be fierce, even without our help.

With all that...sand at stake, the surrounding countries will have to move, if only to keep it from spreading.

	03-08-2003 04:34									#50
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Imran -- you're correct in that things that are leaked by the administration are almost always leaked on purpose, but one can't forget that the report doesn't belong to the Bush administration. It's been shown and distributed to select members of Congress and people in agencies such as the CIA (which doesn't exactly have a rosy relationship with the Bush administration at the moment).

The Bush people don't want this report out for several main reasons:

1. An Iraq-al Qaeda connection has been strongly insinuated since 9/11 and was used in part to justify the war in Iraq.

2. It takes emphasis off of (again) Iraq and Osama bin Laden. Bush hasn't pointed even a pinky finger at the Saudis despite the fact that he promised to go after any nation that supported terrorism. If what the Saudis are said to have done is true, then it suggests that the Saudi government had prior knowledge of the 9/11 attacks and may have helped plan or accomodate those attacks. If that's not supporting terrorism, I don't know what is.

	03-08-2003 04:43									#51
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rev, I actually think this may be part of some plan to isolate SA, especially after moving all the troops in the area to Iraq (which is another reason we won't leave soon). Now, I don't think we'll go to war against SA, but look for a cooling of relations. The cynic in me says some rhetoric will be brought up early next year, and the Bushites will release their information that they have said they have been gathering to turn the country against SA and get some of that patriot backing again, this time for the election.

Actually, the CIA is the main people that don't want the administration report released. Apparently there is some stuff there about working with Saudi intelligence in the War on Terror and they don't want to compromise that cooperation.

	03-08-2003 07:46									#52
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Given that "Saudi Arabia" is really nothing more than an invention of the British Empire, I'm sure we can come up with something...

Minor problem: Saudi Arabia is NOT a creation of the Brits, unlike many of its neighbors. Most of Saudi arabia was never under Ottoman hands, but held by Arab tribes. Only the Hijaz was under Ottoman rule, but since the Hashemites begun the pro-Brit Arab Revolt from there, the Brits let the Hashimites maintain rule. It was King saud himself that united all of SA and kicked out the Hashimites from the Holy Cities and becmae protector of them. So saudi Arabia is a self-made state.

If the enemy is extremist Islam, then for now we NEED the House of Saud: the only ones that will replace them at this point are even more fundamentalist folks: US troops in the HOly Cities would be the worse possible thing, so only after the Sauds reform and create a middle, moderate precense in Saudi Arabi with some power can we then hope for the fall of the saudis without it beocming an even bigger problem.....

We need them to sow the seeds that would make their fal palpatable to the US..isn;t that just the kicker?

	03-08-2003 13:42									#53
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Where in this thread did I say anything about sending in US troops?

	04-08-2003 00:14									#54
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Where in this thread did I say anything about sending in US troops?

You didn;t, Pekka did.

	04-08-2003 00:23									#55
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You have an interesting quoting style.

	04-08-2003 00:32									#56
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First of all, don't kid yourself: the leaks did not come from the Bush administration. The likeliest source is the Senate Intelligence Committee, where Democrats and Republicans alike have been frothing at the mouth for days about the administration's censoring of the report and its protection of the House of Saud.

So, we've invaded Iraq because they were supposedly doing the same thing that North Korea really is doing. Now it looks like we'll have bombed Afganistan into submission for a tertiary role in crimes funded and possibly masterminded by the Saudis -- to whom we will probably deliver a stern lecture. Can someone please explain again what this "Bush Doctrine" thing is I keep hearing about?

	04-08-2003 00:40									#57
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Too much has been invested in the US-SA allience for it to simply die away as some people here fantasize.

Probably, but the American possession of Iraq gives a massive leverage against the Sauds now. I don't think American bases are that important to the Saudi economy (the weight of American bases on the local economy is often overstated by Polytubbies).
But the US should have another reliable source of oil (Iraq) shortly, if everything goes according to the plan. This will mean the US and the west will be much less dependent from SA, while SA will remain dependent from the US and the west.

In such a situation, you can expect the Sauds to obey pretty much any American whim.

	04-08-2003 01:02									#58
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Rufus, we're already moving the bases.

	04-08-2003 01:17									#59
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If it gets bad enough, we may be requested to send in "peacekeepers", but it is not necessary by any means. I would prefer we didn't, as it would allow us to avoid yet another charge of imperialism entirely.

However, this dosen't change the ultimate goal: the fall of the House of Saud, and the reduction or dissolution of Saudi Arabia as a sovereign territory.

It was a mistake to put that much oil under the control of a single political entity.

	04-08-2003 01:20									#60
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quote: Originally posted by The Mad Monk Rufus, we're already moving the bases.

But we were doing that before the report came out, and it could just as easily be seen as a security precaution (those bases were one of Al Qaeda's biggest grievances). I'll be eager to see what we do in light of the report. But if there is conclusive evidence of Saudi government collusion in 9/11, and we don't immediately recall our ambassador and break off diplomatic relations, I'd sure like to know why.