07-08-2003 23:58									#31
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"So if someone says they believe in progressive taxation cause islam believes in charity to the poor, does that make them Islamist"

Having views on specific issues that are influenced by religion does not turn a religion into an ideology.

"No, the real concern is a either an imposition of Sharia law in a wide variety of normally secular areas, or the establishment, as in Iran, of a formal role in govt for the religious hierarchy - neither of which is very likely."

I think that is quite likely.

"the shiites as a group will run the country, effectively, since they are the majority."

Unlikely. The US needs the sunni establishment.

"And the foreigners will just get themselves killed."

Which is part of the definition of suicide bombers.

	08-08-2003 00:34									#32
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler " "the shiites as a group will run the country, effectively, since they are the majority." Unlikely. The US needs the sunni establishment. ".

the reason we went in was to change the region - to "drain the swamp" so its no longer a source of terror. A democratic Iraq is, therefore, part of our strategy. If we empower the sunni arab "establishment", we will have thrown away the fruits of victory. Its not impossible, given that that is the desire of the Saudis, and their friends in the Department of State and the CIA, but Paul Wolfowitz and the entire neo-con "conspiracy" and their friends in the press and in Congress are on guard for it.

	08-08-2003 00:41									#33
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"the reason we went in was to change the region"

That was one reason at best.

"A democratic Iraq is, therefore, part of our strategy."

That's far from clear. So far, there is no obvious post war strategy.

"If we empower the sunni arab "establishment", we will have thrown away the fruits of victory."

Left with the choice of an anarchic or islamist Iraq vs a stable Iraq, what will the admin pick?

	08-08-2003 00:44									#34
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "the reason we went in was to change the region" That was one reason at best. "A democratic Iraq is, therefore, part of our strategy." That's far from clear. So far, there is no obvious post war strategy. "If we empower the sunni arab "establishment", we will have thrown away the fruits of victory." Left with the choice of an anarchic or islamist Iraq vs a stable Iraq, what will the admin pick?

Empowering the sunni establishment would be a very good way to generate instability. Best way to avoid an anarchic or Islamist Iraq is to patiently build democracy.

	08-08-2003 00:46									#35
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "A democratic Iraq is, therefore, part of our strategy." That's far from clear. So far, there is no obvious post war strategy. "

Whether there was an adequate strategy to get to democracy is debatable. That democracy is part of the grand strategy is quite obvious.

	08-08-2003 00:46									#36
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Obvious by what?

	08-08-2003 01:41									#37
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler Obvious by what?

Ok perhaps obvious overstated it. Based on extenisive discussions of strategy in public by Paul Wolfowitz, based on evidence from well connected columnists like Jim Hoagland and sources like Stratfor that this is the admin's private strat as well. Some of these sources, like Stratfor, are skeptical of the wisdom of admin strategy. They do not, AFAIK, dispute that that is what it is.


Now perhaps you could tell me how you know that an Islamic state in Iraq is inevitable?

	08-08-2003 01:45									#38
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"Ok perhaps obvious overstated it."

I see a desire for bases, corporate interests, being nice to Israel and playing along to stablise oil prices. All irreconciliable with a democratic Iraq.

"Now perhaps you could tell me how you know that an Islamic state in Iraq is inevitable?"

Where did I say that? I say that trouble with Islamism is inevitable.

	08-08-2003 02:10									#39
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5 days and you are claiming all's clear?

	08-08-2003 02:12									#40
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "Ok perhaps obvious overstated it." I see a desire for bases, corporate interests, being nice to Israel and playing along to stablise oil prices. All irreconciliable with a democratic Iraq.

Oil could have been served better by simply supporting an end to sanctions.

Corporate interests would have been better served by simply cutting corporate taxes.

Israel will not be well-served if the US is weakened in the region, which will certainly happen if we dont democratize Iraq.

	08-08-2003 02:13									#41
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "Now perhaps you could tell me how you know that an Islamic state in Iraq is inevitable?" Where did I say that? I say that trouble with Islamism is inevitable.

"I think it's just a matter of time until the islamists take over"


Thats where you said it.

	08-08-2003 02:15									#42
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"I think it's just a matter of time until the islamists take over"

Take over the resistance from the Baathites, not the country. Sorry for cutting that short.

	08-08-2003 02:15									#43
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I hope it's over, but I think it's only quiet because they're planning something bigger, or getting more organized, regrouping and more effecient.

	08-08-2003 02:18									#44
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"Oil could have been served better by simply supporting an end to sanctions."

Would have still left the Saudis in charge. But that target is some years off, though some remarks from the admin may indicate they thought the oil would flow instantly. But who knows what they believe behind all the lies.

"Corporate interests would have been better served by simply cutting corporate taxes."

Pork spending, oil concessions etc are better to target.

"Israel will not be well-served if the US is weakened in the region, which will certainly happen if we dont democratize Iraq."

You'll be weakened either way, unless you get a democratic government in Iraq that loves you. A tad bit unlikely.

	08-08-2003 02:22									#45
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "I think it's just a matter of time until the islamists take over" Take over the resistance from the Baathites, not the country. Sorry for cutting that short.

Geez. Im sorry. But also puzzled. Wasnt it clear from my responses that i was assuming you thought the Islamists would take over the country, not the resistance?

They may well take over the resistance - more likely sunni islamists then Shiite islamists, though. Even the most anti-US Shiite pol, Sadr, has held back from violence. And of course Sunni islamists will have the disadvantage of being less well trained, armed and financed than the Baathists. And they need to get started soon, while US actions in the anti-Baathist campaign are pissing off iraqis in the sunni triangle. Once things settle down, and life improves, it will be that much harder to get a guerilla campaign started.

	08-08-2003 02:24									#46
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "Oil could have been served better by simply supporting an end to sanctions." Would have still left the Saudis in charge.

How? saddam would have had every incentive to ship as much as possible, not to follow the Saudis.

	08-08-2003 02:25									#47
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quote: Originally posted by HershOstropoler "Israel will not be well-served if the US is weakened in the region, which will certainly happen if we dont democratize Iraq." You'll be weakened either way, unless you get a democratic government in Iraq that loves you. A tad bit unlikely.

Well you should read the reactions of the Kurds and the Marsh arabs to the american presence. But we dont need one that loves us. We dont need bases. We dont need fat contracts. What we need is a change in the political culture in the region.

	08-08-2003 02:26									#48
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If the Islamists take over, then I would say that the Baathist insurgency is over and a new one is beginning. One group will likely have very different tactics than the other.

	08-08-2003 03:05									#49
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I'd expect to see the Sunni establishment take over. At least, that's still the feeling I get from Powell et al.

I have no clue what Rummy and Wolfy want any more. Their pre-war "planning" consisted entirely of hoping Chalabi would reign in the situation. As far as I can tell, they still want to ultimately hand over power to that crook (thereby turning Iraq into Lebanon II).