29-08-2003 21:09									#31
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quote: Originally posted by Timexwatch Islamicist and Fundamentalists aren't quite the same in the academic sense, but many fundamentalists shre their objectives with Islamicists. Interestingly, I was watching *ahem* FOX *ahem* and Marc Ginsberg, one of their more intelligent commentators (and former Ambassador to Morocco) hinted that it could be the work of one of the younger Al-Sadr cronies in an attempt to bump off the older clergy.

Sooner or Later you all will be watching the "Fair and Balanced"

	29-08-2003 21:11									#32
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quote: hinted that it could be the work of one of the younger Al-Sadr cronies in an attempt to bump off the older clergy

Quite possible.

	29-08-2003 21:13									#33
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quote: Originally posted by Timexwatch Islamicist and Fundamentalists aren't quite the same in the academic sense, but many fundamentalists shre their objectives with Islamicists.

not really. Not all islamists want a strict usage of Sharia law using the most backward interpretations available. Not all christian rightwingers are the same: ditto for Islamic rightwingers.

	29-08-2003 21:15									#34
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Quite possible.

You'd think whoever did it would've been more subtle i.e. not involving several hundred pounds of explosives in front of a mosque on Friday.

	29-08-2003 21:18									#35
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I think the size of the blast argues somewhat against Badr: kill to many and you lose the audience, speically if you do serious damage to the Ali Mosque. The other attempted hits on the al-Hakim's might have been his (since they are direclty targeted).

	29-08-2003 21:22									#36
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The size, the place, the time ... Could not it be a revenge, or a warning, after the UN blast.

	29-08-2003 21:23									#37
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The method of how it was done would probably indicate which group is responsible. If it was one of those old school "turn the ignition" bombs, it would have to have been a sophisticated group with access to his car and the ability to pack that many explosives in the car. That would probably mean someone with connections and intelligence experience. If it was a just a car in the vicinity pack to the gills, it could be anyones doing, which would be a problem.

quote: I think the size of the blast argues somewhat against Badr: kill to many and you lose the audience, speically if you do serious damage to the Ali Mosque. The other attempted hits on the al-Hakim's might have been his (since they are direclty targeted).

That depends on how intelligent your henchmen are. Would you put it past amateurs to pack too many explosives into a car to do the job?

	29-08-2003 21:25									#38
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Al-Hakim spent 10 years in Iran, the SCIRI was armed by the Iraninas, and if Mohammed himself was not in the governing council is cause the US thought him to close to Iran, but too big to ignore, so lets put in the brother. I seriously doubt the Iranina had diddly to do with this one. If Montezari(spll) get it, maybe, just a slim little chance....

Thus Iran would have had plenty of opportunity to infiltrate SCIRI.

SCIRI has supported the governing council, which Sadr has denounced. Success for the governing council would be a defeat for Iran. Sadr has supported an Iranian style theocracy, Hakim opposed. The Iranian ayatollahs are also threatened by the prestige of the the Najaf Hawza. I have no proof Iran did this, but they certainly stand to have a lot to gain.


"Spy on your friends, they may be your enemies tomorrow" - John LeCarre, "The Honourable Schoolboy"

	29-08-2003 21:29									#39
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT The size, the place, the time ... Could not it be a revenge, or a warning, after the UN blast.

Nope, it's not our style. We bomb from planes not with car bambs.

	29-08-2003 21:30									#40
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quote: Originally posted by Timexwatch That depends on how intelligent your henchmen are. Would you put it past amateurs to pack too many explosives into a car to do the job?

Especially since the last bomb they tried was to small and didn't kill the target. I could totally see one of these losers declaring it would be big enough to kill the target this time and then packing in WAY to much explosives.

	29-08-2003 21:32									#41
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Nope, it's not our style. We bomb from planes not with car bambs.

I an not sure that the guys in charge in Bagdad are in the mood to bother about style. And they have plenty of Special Ops available. And they have Israelis friends not far.

	29-08-2003 21:33									#42
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a turkish style solution for Iraq is out of the question. The turkish military has a tradition of modernism and nationalism going back to Ataturk, or even before, to the Young Turks. No such tradition in Iraq, and no Kemal Ataturk waiting in the wings. Military rule in Iraq is more likely a formula for corruption, ethnic rivalry, and more disorder.

	29-08-2003 21:35									#43
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT I an not sure that the guys in charge in Bagdad are in the mood to bother about style. And they have plenty of Special Ops available. And they have Israelis friends not far.

ah, Hakim, and 90 other muslims were murdered by the JOOS, who also damaged a mosque and did it on a muslim holy day for good measure. I suspect this will be the response out of Iran fairly soon. But we get to see it on 'poly first. Dont i feel privileged.

	29-08-2003 21:36									#44
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT The size, the place, the time ... Could not it be a revenge, or a warning, after the UN blast.

why would we kill a shiite leader who supports the governing council???

as i think gepap meant to imply in his initial post - this assasination is BAD news for the US position in Iraq.

	29-08-2003 21:38									#45
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT I an not sure that the guys in charge in Bagdad are in the mood to bother about style. And they have plenty of Special Ops available. And they have Israelis friends not far.

If we wanted to assassinate someone I imagine he'd get a bullet to the head and there wouldn't be 94 other dead people. Atleast, that's the way it would go down once you're in control of a country instead of in the beginning stages of an invasion.

	29-08-2003 21:42									#46
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Why did they kill 23 UN staffs who came here just to help Iraq ?

Under terrorism, the standard political calculations do not work.

	29-08-2003 21:44									#47
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Another angle to the "you think you used enough dynamite there, Butch?" approach is that it casues some confusion as to who's responsible by deviating from the pattern of attacks used by Sadr's boys in the past.

There's an even bigger twist in that the spectacular size and effect of the blast will get much more attention and help (along with the UN bombing) spread the perception among a lot of Iraqis that the Americans can't secure the country.

I doubt it's morons who didn't know how much explosive to use - seems much more likely to me that this bombing was a message meant for several parties.

	29-08-2003 21:46									#48
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT Why did they kill 23 UN staffs who came here just to help Iraq ? Under terrorism, the standard political calculations do not work.

Because the folks who did that, Baathists most likely, did NOT want to help Iraq, they want to stop reconstruction so they can bring the occupation down and regain power. They attacked the UN rather than say a US base, cause the UN was less well protected, and they MAY be getting desperate.

Al qaeedas attacks too are explicable in terms of a politial strategy, even if a rather far fetched one. Stratfor has been outlining it since 9/11, and their analysis continues to make sense.

	29-08-2003 21:47									#49
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75 dead so far. It appears that Saddam does not want to give up his status of the greatist killer of muslims.

	29-08-2003 21:58									#50
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quote: Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat seems much more likely to me that this bombing was a message meant for several parties.

I agree. Simple explanations are misleading because the terrorist act is build to misled. It is therefore safer to contemplate all possibilities, even the most crazy or senseless.

The very important fact is that from now on Iraq has to be put under some sort of martial law, and that the ordinary military must be complemented by a counter-terrorism force, using terrorists ways and means.

	29-08-2003 22:00									#51
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Hello! Iraq already is under martial law!

And terrorist tactics are overrated in effectiveness. At least for the stuff that we need to do.

	29-08-2003 22:06									#52
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Hello! Iraq already is under martial law! And terrorist tactics are overrated in effectiveness. At least for the stuff that we need to do.

Explain that to the 90 casualties.

By the way, do you know how and when the martial law was declared to the population, and what obligations and restrictions it creates?

	29-08-2003 22:06									#53
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reuters continues to qupte witnesses who claim it was Hakims own car that blew up - CNN says this is uncertain - AP and BBC dont mention it at all.

If it WAS Hakims own car, that points to an inside job, by an organization that infiltrated SCIRI - most likely Iran, IMO.

	29-08-2003 22:07									#54
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Hello! Iraq already is under martial law! And terrorist tactics are overrated in effectiveness. At least for the stuff that we need to do.

IIUC arrested criminals are tried by the newly formed IRaqi civilian courts, so theyre not actually under martial, just military occupation.

	29-08-2003 22:12									#55
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quote: By the way, do you know how and when the martial law was declared to the population, and what obligations and restrictions it creates?

Nope. And who cares?

At least Baghdad is under 11 pm curfew and you have the military providing the bulk of law enforcement based upon procedures that are made up by the military.

Leave the semantics to Roland and the other lawyers.

	29-08-2003 22:20									#56
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Without martial law, and with the military performing ordinary police duties, there were three significant terrorist attempts in a short period; this is not semantics. There is no reason for this raw to stop if no serious measures are taken.

	29-08-2003 22:23									#57
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quote: Originally posted by DAVOUT There is no reason for this raw to stop if no serious measures are taken.

Are you implying Indian intelligence is involved?

	29-08-2003 22:25									#58
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What are you arguing Davout? What's your point? You can't deliver a punchline for sh!t.

	29-08-2003 22:49									#59
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quote: Originally posted by DanS What are you arguing Davout? What's your point? You can't deliver a punchline for sh!t.

You said nobody cares whether or not there is a martial law. Terrorists appreciate.
The UN blast was made possible by a total absence of security. Terrorists made good use of that.
The to-day blast was made without any difficulty, let alone risk, because the holy ground is not accessed at all by the US military. Terrorists ackowledge that respectable attitude.

My point is that the US are led to hardening severely the rules currently applied, because the current organization is not designed to eradicate this kind of terrorism. And the democracy will not florish until it is eradicated. The first step is the control of the population which is also named martial law. If for many reasons, legitimate or not, the US dont feel like doing that, they will have to declare it and act accordingly.

	29-08-2003 22:53									#60
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Well, Shias didn't want us to be near their holy sites and we complied.

It's always the same with people: only after painful experience do they realize their mistake.