31-08-2003 13:12									#61
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Well, even if we couldn't take on ROW (which we could IMO), then that just proves my point all the more. If you want to paint the US as a unipole, then you've got to recognize that the US doesn't have the capability to perpetuate this situation and has never really had this capability. So why care too much about it? If you want to paint the US as a superpower, then we can perpetuate this situation forever, basically. What Bush does now will have almost zero impact on these facts, unless he gets us nuked. Wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, and Iran during his presidency won't change the parameters. Continued large deficits (which aren't planned, currently) during his presidency won't change the parameters.

Can't claim to understand that post. But economic growth is closely related to net investment. Military spending is mostly consumption. 50-100 billion $ for Iraq is not domestic investment either. Add to that a savings rate that only covers depreciation.

There are other factors, like the growing authoritarianism, corruption and superstition.

	31-08-2003 13:25									#62
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quote: 50-100 billion $ for Iraq is not domestic investment either. Add to that a savings rate that only covers depreciation.

The point is that $100 billion for Iraq, while a lot of money, will not make a difference on the timescale that about which ef is talking. Even several hundreds of billions of dollars a year for various adventures during Bush's presidency won't make much of a difference. If ef wants to set the bar so high for American power that the US has never been able to meet the conditions anyway, then this discussion is rather pointless.

quote: There are other factors, like the growing authoritarianism, corruption and superstition.

I don't think you can have a good enough sense of the US to know whether it is "growing" or not. Probably, I don't either, but my sense is directly opposite of yours. The US has never been shangri-la, after all.

	31-08-2003 13:30									#63
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You guys seem to talk a lot about possible scenarios, but in reality, US does play the role of the unipole. It might not be able to sustain such a position in face of unified and determined opposition, but no such opposition is present now, or is likely to be present in the near future.
To get back to the original point about tax cuts, the problem with them is that Bush is taking an essentially domestic issue that he needs to be elected and pursues the cut that undermine US ability to sustain viable domestic programs. The problem is - decreased military spending means US will stop playing the role of the unipole - and no country will give in to that willingly. Therefore it will domestic programs that take the cut. Too bad, but there doesn't seem to be a way out of this.

	31-08-2003 13:36									#64
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quote: The problem is - decreased military spending means US will stop playing the role of the unipole - and no country will give in to that willingly.

Why so? Basically, you just admitted that it was out of our hands whether or not we continue on our lofty perch (which I agree with, btw).

	31-08-2003 13:37									#65
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"The point is that $100 billion for Iraq, while a lot of money, will not make a difference on the timescale that about which ef is talking. Even several hundreds of billions of dollars a year for various adventures during Bush's presidency won't make much of a difference."

Well it adds up. Also, why are you limiting this to Bush? I see him just as a symptom.

"I don't think you can have a good enough sense of the US to know whether it is "growing" or not."

You think police and prosecution powers are not growing, the control of money over politics is not growing, and nationalism and religious fundamentalism are not growing?

"Probably, I don't either, but my sense is directly opposite of yours."

You've always lived in a reality alternate to mine.

	31-08-2003 13:40									#66
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quote: Also, why are you limiting this to Bush? I see him just as a symptom.

Just following ef's scenario. He quoted a structural balance in 2000 and all of the ills that followed.

quote: You think police and prosecution powers are not growing, the control of money over politics is not growing, and nationalism and religious fundamentalism are not growing?

No, no, no, and no [edit: I guess that should be yes, yes, yes, and yes. ]. Easy answers, at least on a more long-term basis.

The police are better and cleaner now than they have ever been. The FBI in Hoover's time was rather abusive of its power. Money has always been a part of American politics and now no more than then. I can think of times infinitely worse in our recent history (trusts). Nationalism is on the decrease. The first Gulf War was an order of magnitude more shameful than the second. Religious fundamentalism is very much on the decrease. I come from an area that was very fundamentalist, so I know. I can give you specific examples, if you are interested.

You're out of touch with the US, Roland. You always have been.

	31-08-2003 13:41									#67
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Well, I wouldn't exactly say that it is out of our hands. The problem is that 2000 brought to power a President who needed to maintain conservative domestic policies to woo his electoral base. Had the power switched (or should it switch in 2004) to a President who will reverse the tax policy, domestic programs might yet be saved.

	31-08-2003 13:43									#68
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quote: You think police and prosecution powers are not growing, the control of money over politics is not growing, and nationalism and religious fundamentalism are not growing?

Actually, all these things have probably been there all along. Now they are just becoming more open, in tune with an increasingly conservative mood of the country.

	31-08-2003 13:48									#69
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"No, no, no, and no. Easy answers, at least on a more long-term basis."

So it will all be well in the future. Sure.

What interests me though: "Nationalism is on the decrease." How do you come to that conclusion?

	31-08-2003 13:54									#70
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quote: What interests me though: "Nationalism is on the decrease." How do you come to that conclusion?

There was no "Proud to be an American" song for Gulf War II.

quote: So it will all be well in the future. Sure.

No. More like "it was twice as bad 20 years ago".

	31-08-2003 14:06									#71
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"There was no "Proud to be an American" song for Gulf War II.2"

There was no FOX "news" 20 years ago.

	31-08-2003 14:10									#72
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That's not a very good indicator. If you were here, you would know that.

Dissent was tolerated by the majority this time. That is more often not the case over our history. It wasn't that way in GW I.

Seriously, you must have an idealized view of the US in the past to think that any of this is on the increase.

	31-08-2003 14:12									#73
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A rabidly jingoistic program being successful is a weaker indicator than one song?

	31-08-2003 14:13									#74
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Hey hey hey

The only rabid jingoist around here is ME, Herr Rechtsberater.

	31-08-2003 14:14									#75
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quote: A rabidly jingoistic program being successful is a weaker indicator than one song?

Sure. Almost all Americans listen to the radio on their way to work and were exposed to the song in GWI. For all of the hype, only a small proportion of Americans watch Fox News.

Besides, if you call Faux News rabidly jingoistic, you don't know real jingoism.

Europe must have only been exposed to this stuff recently. In the past, it probably wasn't interested. Too many foreign news bureaus in Washington nowadays.

	31-08-2003 14:16									#76
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I don't know. From LA it seems that the rest of the country is pretty conservative - and conservatives have been consolidating and rallying their appeal lately. Fox news is just one of the symptoms - what about the radio talk shows ? what about all those "lets return to our values" cries ? Patriot Act anyone ?

Even intellectually, the right has been making a comeback in universities, where more and more "compassionate, Bushite" conservatives are diluting the traditionally liberal strongholds. It is becoming increasingly fashionable to be conservative in places that previously would not even have a "Young Republicans" club.

	31-08-2003 14:18									#77
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Conservatism is not an indicator for any of the things that Hershell mentioned.

	31-08-2003 14:20									#78
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Besides, if you call Faux News rabidly jingoistic, you don't know real jingoism.

What qualifies as real jingoism then? Nazism?

	31-08-2003 14:21									#79
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quote: Originally posted by DanS Conservatism is not an indicator for any of the things that Hershell mentioned.

The rise of the extreme right is.

	31-08-2003 14:22									#80
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How about we put the Japanese in concentration camps?

	31-08-2003 14:22									#81
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quote: The rise of the extreme right is.

The extreme right isn't rising. That's silly.

	31-08-2003 14:25									#82
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Conservative agenda is typically driven by the things Hershell mentioned. In fact conservativism and things like religious fundamentalism, nationalist propaganda, and police powers all seem to be closely related - do you think its an accident that both McCarty and Judge Moore of Alabama (of Ten Commandments monument fame) are both Republicans and conservatives?

	31-08-2003 14:25									#83
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"The extreme right isn't rising."

Ashcroft, Cheney, Rumsfeld would qualify as "rechtsextrem" here. You just see the political spectrum in a different way.

	31-08-2003 14:28									#84
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quote: Conservative agenda is typically driven by the things Hershell mentioned. In fact conservativism and things like religious fundamentalism, nationalist propaganda, and police powers all seem to be closely related - do you think its an accident that both McCarty and Judge Moore of Alabama (of Ten Commandments monument fame) are both Republicans and conservatives?

You just think that because you're a pinko liberal commie.

Anyway, you just proved my point. McCarthy wouldn't get a whit of support nowadays. Conservativism changed some planks in order to attract from the center.

Wonder what happened to the Christian Coalition anyway...

	31-08-2003 14:30									#85
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quote: Ashcroft, Cheney, Rumsfeld would qualify as "rechtsextrem" here. You just see the political spectrum in a different way.

Ashcroft has been in high level politics for 30 years. Cheney has been at the highest levels of politics for 30 years as well. Rumsfeld even longer. None of these people have changed their basic thoughts over the time they have served.

This is getting tedious. Have any better examples?

	31-08-2003 14:33									#86
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What has their time in politics got to do with this?

	31-08-2003 14:35									#87
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You say that there has been a "rise of the extreme right", then give these guys as evidence. It just seems prudent to mention that these guys have been in power off and on since Methusela. They were already there. No need to "rise".

	31-08-2003 14:35									#88
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quote: You just think that because you're a pinko liberal commie.

Slowly changing color from pink to angry red

The problem is, when conservativism changed planks it remained a wolf in sheep's clothing. Now that they have attracted voters from the center, the Republicans want to drag them back to 19th century policies.

And McCartyism, I wouldn't be so sure. A couple more terrorist attacks and questions like "Do you know any Arabs?" "Did you really visit that Mosque 7 years ago - who did you see there?" might begin to be asked.

Just a possibility to consider.

	31-08-2003 14:37									#89
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quote: Originally posted by DanS It just seems prudent to mention that these guys have been in power off and on since Methusela.

Did they push the same politics with the same influence under Bush I?

	31-08-2003 14:38									#90
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quote: And McCartyism, I wouldn't be so sure. A couple more terrorist attacks and questions like "Do you know any Arabs?" "Did you really visit that Mosque 7 years ago - who did you see there?" might begin to be asked.

You mean, might begin again to be asked? The fact remains that Arabs are treated better in the US than the Jews. Such was not always the case. It's not even a comparison really. We're a much more tolerant society nowadays.