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Kropotkin is offline Kropotkin
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Mar 1999
time: 06:31
Arrow  Old Post 28-10-2003 17:50
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Polls IN Iraq Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

A while ago, The Diplomat started a thread with the title The truth about Iraq in wich he cited a survey made in august about the opinions of iraqis. Today I read a short summary by a so called expert on swedish tv that stated that a recent survey in Iraq showed that the opinions was against the US. Since I remembered the diplomats thread, a quite recent one even if the poll was from august, I tried to find this new one. As he gave no names or links whatsoever, I tried to find the survey with a number of key-words. It's quite hard to actually find polls from iraq about what iraqis think. It's no problem finding out what people in the US, Europe, asia, catowners etc think. Iraqis seems to be a neglected group.*Instead we as newsreaders have to go by short interviews made by journalists. It's impossible to know in what way those in any way reflects the opinions of the iraqi people.

My intentions with this thread is to point at different sources at different times. (that includes the diplomats thread linked above). There's quite a few opinions about the state of opinions in iraq that seems to be largely based on opinions about Bush or the US, not so much solid research. The Diplomats poll was somewhat old, this way we'll get new information. From different sources.

So any way, I found this article in the LAtimes that summarizes two recent polls in Iraq. One by the state deparement and the other one by a private iraqi think tank.

quote:

Iraqis See Role for Islam in Government
The results of a State Department poll appear to run counter to Bush officials' expectations.

From Times Wire Services

WASHINGTON — Iraqis are divided over what political framework they want for their new government, but a majority want Islam to play some role in it, according to a new survey in Iraq by the State Department's Office of Research.

"The public divides among those who support a democracy based on human rights, those who support an Islamic state based on Sharia law, and those who support a mix," the authors of the survey wrote in a report released Saturday on the Web site of the Coalition Provisional Authority, the U.S.-led occupation administration in Iraq.

Although many respondents believe that Islam has a role in government, the authors noted that "support for religious figures in government does not necessarily preclude support for leadership accountability … through such mechanisms as elections and free speech."

When broken down by geographic areas, the poll reinforces well-known differences among ethnic Kurds in the north, Arab Sunni Muslims in central Iraq and the majority Arab Shiite Muslims, who dominate the south. The survey was based on 1,444 interviews in seven urban areas and had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

In the Kurdish north, a Western-style democracy or a mix with Islam is overwhelmingly favored.

In the southern cities of Basra and Najaf, almost two-thirds of those polled consider it important that religious leaders play a large role in politics and an Islamic state is far more popular.

Even in Baghdad, almost 60% of respondents deem it important that religious leaders play a major role in government and more than half of them consider it "very important."

The capital is almost evenly divided with about one-third favoring a Western democracy, another third a mix of democracy and Islam and the final third wanting an Islamic state with Sharia, the religious law, as part of government.

The poll results showing that a majority of Iraqis want a role for religion in their government appear to run counter to what Bush administration leaders expected. Last month, Vice President **** Cheney referred to a Zogby International poll that he said showed overwhelming opposition to an Islamic government in Iraq.

"If you want to ask them do they want an Islamic government established, by 2-to-1 margins they say no, including the Shiite population," Cheney said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

Another poll conducted in Iraq recently also shows strong support for a role for religion in government. The survey by Iraq's Center for Research and Strategic Studies, a think tank set up by a group of Iraqi professors after Saddam Hussein's fall, found that 33.7% of respondents wanted an "Islamic theocracy" while 23.7% said they backed "Islamic democracy." Support for "democracy" was at 30.5%. The terms were undefined.

The think tank's poll results, released last week, also showed that 67% of Iraqis saw the U.S.-led coalition forces as "occupying powers." That is up from 46% in a survey conducted shortly after the war that ousted Hussein.

Fifteen percent considered the U.S.-led coalition forces "liberating forces," down from 43% six months ago. One in 10 saw them as peacekeepers, twice as many as in April.

The think tank's poll of 1,620 Iraqis was conducted in seven cities from Sept. 28 to Oct. 10 and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.


Source:
Los Angeles Times


* Ok, it might just have something to do with the situation that's not ideal for surveys about public opinions.

Q Cubed is offline Q Cubed
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t3h y3ll0w p3ril
Apr 1999
time: 23:31
  Old Post 28-10-2003 17:58 Visit Q Cubed's homepage!
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the la times is a liberal newspaper, out to slander bush. it has no real reporting. go to cuba or be thrown out of a helicopter!

Kropotkin is offline Kropotkin
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  Old Post 28-10-2003 18:12
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One lame troll. So, fine. Find and post any other polls from Iraq you can find that you think is objective then.

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  Old Post 28-10-2003 18:16 Visit Q Cubed's homepage!
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i did. go check thediplomat's thread.

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  Old Post 28-10-2003 18:17 Visit Q Cubed's homepage!
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well, actually, i'm not sure how objective it is, just posted it to show that thediplomat's link might not have been the whole picture.

Kropotkin is offline Kropotkin
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  Old Post 28-10-2003 18:39
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My point exacly, the truth (if any) is that we have serious problem sorting out the information we're getting about what the Iraqis think.

The LA times might be liberal, but one of the surveys they quote is from the state deparement...

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 28-10-2003 19:03
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IIRC the poll indicated that the majority wanted an islamic element in a democratic govt. When asked if they wanted an Iranian style govt, most said no. The favorite model was the United Arab Emirates - whose govt is NOT democratic, and only mildly Islamic. Methinks the people has not thought this through completly. I would wait for the actual constitutional proceedings, when specific questions come up, rather than vague poll questions. Of course most Iraqis in the ABSTRACT want Islam as part of the state - seperation of church and state simply isnt part of the culture there. But when push comes to shove, and the question is "do you want Grand Ayatolah Sistani to have veto power over the newly elected legislature" I suspect the result will be different (also all evidence is that Ayatollah Sistani doesnt want such a role anyway)

lord of the mark is offline lord of the mark
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  Old Post 28-10-2003 19:12
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the poll results are at the CPA website


95 want free and fair elections


78% oppose censorship of the media

71% want equal rights for women

and oh, yeah, 56% want religious leaders to play a role in politics.


Mixed indeed.

Read it yourself

http://www.cpa-iraq.org/government/political_poll.pdf

Kropotkin is offline Kropotkin
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  Old Post 28-10-2003 19:15
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Interesting, from figure 3. I'd say I wouldn't buy a summer house in Najaf any time soon.

Kropotkin is offline Kropotkin
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  Old Post 28-10-2003 19:18
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Looking at the methodology, I see that the survey was done in cities only. No way to tell if those results are representative for the surrounding rural areas.

Also, the margin of error is very large. Only the figures from Baghdad are 'reasonable' imho.

Yes, to sum up, mixed indeed.

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  Old Post 28-10-2003 20:32
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Poll indicates 53% of Iraqis would prefer a woman as president to a cleric

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