30-10-2003 23:31									#31
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@ thread.

	30-10-2003 23:33									#32
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quote: Originally posted by DanS 2002 = 2.4% 2003 = 4%?

Looks good. Is this due to a new cycle, or is it rather due to deficit-spending + lower change rates?

	30-10-2003 23:35									#33
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Spiffor, you are a bad Marxist. Bad Marxist. Go sit in the corner now.

Of course it's because it's a new cycle.

	30-10-2003 23:36									#34
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A number of reasons, all flowing from the fact that we had (and still have) considerable unused capacity in our economy. Add in deficit spending, increased household consumption (and in this quarter business consumption), low interest rates, and fast productivity growth.

Always remember that French and US numbers are not comparable, since the US has population growth of about 1% per annum. To compare the two on a per capita basis, subtract 1% or so from the US numbers.

	30-10-2003 23:41									#35
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Spiffor, you are a bad Marxist. Bad Marxist. Go sit in the corner now. Of course it's because it's a new cycle.

Since deficit spending didn't exist in the time of marx, I don't think there is anything wrong with it. The first economy-revival deficit spenders were FDR, and the SDs in Sweeden, IIRC.

	30-10-2003 23:49									#36
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel Since deficit spending didn't exist in the time of marx, . . .

The point is that a recovery is quite normal.

	30-10-2003 23:51									#37
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Great Depression?

	30-10-2003 23:52									#38
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Wonderful. But can you avoid squandering this boon on tax cuts?

	30-10-2003 23:59									#39
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quote: Originally posted by Azazel Great Depression?

Only happened once . . . so far (though there were three Depressions named the Great Depression). Even during the Depression, there were years of very high economic growth and recovery. There were two business cycles during the period we consider the GD. And this recession wasn't that deep. No 25% unemployment.

	31-10-2003 00:02									#40
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MtG: You should run a political blog. You'd blow most of the lefty sites right out of the water.

As for GDP, it's good and I hope it continues, but if it doesn't serve to create more jobs or plug the leaks in the job market, people will still be angry a year from now.

	31-10-2003 00:06									#41
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quote: There were two business cycles during the period we consider the GD. And this recession wasn't that deep. No 25% unemployment

actually, I believe you're wrong on that.

	31-10-2003 00:50									#42
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quote: Originally posted by Fez I hate you mtg... you think just because you are a moderator here means you are better than everybody else... well I had enough of it.

I'm your huckleberry.

	31-10-2003 00:55									#43
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quote: Originally posted by rev MtG: You should run a political blog. You'd blow most of the lefty sites right out of the water.

There's no money in it. I'm a lazy, greedy, capitalist bastard.

	31-10-2003 01:11									#44
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Anybody notice that the stock market is essentially unchanged today (up about 0.1 percent last I looked)?

Which probably means that:

A. A substantial increase was expected to begin with; and

B. A good chunk of the rest will evaporate when revised.

	31-10-2003 01:23									#45
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Even if so, that puts us in 6%+ territory.

	31-10-2003 01:24									#46
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I knew you'd come through for us, Dan.



The thing is, you're so much better at this sort of stuff than the flacks Bush has working for him.

	31-10-2003 02:02									#47
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Bows.

	31-10-2003 02:11									#48
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quote: Originally posted by Adam Smith Anybody notice that the stock market is essentially unchanged today (up about 0.1 percent last I looked)? Which probably means that: A. A substantial increase was expected to begin with; and B. A good chunk of the rest will evaporate when revised.

Or C, they take a closer look at the date, notice how consumer expenditures rose an annualised 26.9% this quarter, after an annualised 24.3% the previous quarter, and realise how short-lived a debt-fuelled recovery could be in an economy already swamped by debt.

Sorry, ranting again... (otherwise I'd go with explanation A)

	31-10-2003 02:32									#49
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quote: notice how consumer expenditures rose an annualised 26.9%

Notice how you aren't reading the chart right.

Durable goods purchases have risen 26.9% and 24.3%, respectively, but consumer expenditures overall only rose 6.6% and 3.3%, respectively.

	31-10-2003 03:27									#50
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I forgot to type "on durables". Do you have anything substantive to argue about?

	31-10-2003 03:49									#52
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quote: Originally posted by Colon I forgot to type "on durables". Do you have anything substantive to argue about?

u forgot nothing, ur just full of ****.

	31-10-2003 04:11									#53
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Hopefully, this will translate into growth the stock market, tax revenues and jobs. Tax revenues may grow more slowly due to large loss carryovers from the lean years. But I expect employment will soon take off as corporations staff up to meet demand.

All-in-all, this is good news for all.

	31-10-2003 04:47									#54
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quote: Originally posted by yavoon u forgot nothing, ur just full of ****.

Yes, of course I'm full ****, for I am Colon.

	31-10-2003 05:41									#55
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Looks like lower interest rates are finally kicking in. If it wasnt for deficit spending, we'd already have a roaring economy.

	31-10-2003 05:48									#56
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quote: Looks like lower interest rates are finally kicking in. If it wasnt for deficit spending, we'd already have a roaring economy.

Actually, I'd argue BECAUSE of deficit spending the growth has surged. Now, if it continues, we can look into ways to reduce the deficit.

	31-10-2003 05:54									#57
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1.17% of the growth was in cars and houses. Most of our deficit spending has been for homeland security, and defense (war on terror, increased monies for the pentagon) That may fuel a small sector of the economy, but its one which doesnt make consumer goodsd. I'd say that its the low interest rates for cars and houses which is making people buy these products, a rate which is being pushed up by fed bank borrowing from the private sector.

	31-10-2003 12:27									#58
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You forgot the tax cuts bit of the deficit spending:

quote: Current-dollar personal income increased $91.0 billion (4.0 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $75.8 billion (3.4 percent) in the second. Personal tax and nontax payments decreased $100.0 billion (32.1 percent), in contrast to an increase of $9.0 billion (3.4 percent). The downturn in taxes reflected the lower withholding rates and the advance payments of child tax credits mandated by the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003.

http://www.bea.gov/bea/newsrel/gdpnewsrelease.htm (check table 9 for personal income)

	31-10-2003 18:00									#59
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--" In a separate report, the Labor Department said new weekly claims for unemployment benefits were still relatively high in the week ending Oct. 25, pointing to the Achilles' heel of the strengthening economy: a sluggish job market. "

So, quick question for y'all. As I understand it, the next employment figures should be release on the 7th. Does this mean they're likely to have remained flat? I'd assume so, of course, but I'm a bit suspicious of many government reports, so I don't know how these are connected the upcoming figures. Two different departments looking at the same thing will probably be giving out different answers.

--"There's no money in it. "

Well, if you handled it right there could be. There are a fair number of net-only news sites that seem to manage. I'm not sure how; ad-revenue isn't particularly high any more. You could always go the subscription method, though.

--"A substantial increase was expected to begin with; and"

Didn't they mention that part in the article? ^_^

Wraith
This life is a test - it is only a test. If it had been an actual life, you would have received further instructions on where to go and what to do

	31-10-2003 18:17									#60
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Well, as a Swede and a egoist I do hope this improvement in the US economy will help up swedish exports. Doesn't seem like those europeans will do any good in that aspect any time soon.