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Az
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MACEDONIA - It's the name of the sovereign country to the north of Greece
Apr 2000
time: 07:31
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no no no. Muslim people are generally good people. They do, OTOH, have different values, etc. which the french public doesn't support. Remember 20 percent going to lepen? From the non-muslim population it is slightly more, 2/9. all of those people don't like muslims, and are also racist, to some degree. Now consider the amount of people that AREN'T racist, but still don't like Islam, since they think it's un-democratic, and opressive? ( I feel so, just as I feel about all people who're religious, jews included). I am sure that there is a large amount of those too. Generally, as the percent of the muslim population in the country will grow, the muslim community leaders will try to divert more and more of the apsects of the local communities to muslim values. At some point a clash will occur. then, you'll see suicide bombings, attacks by europeans. With all of this turmoil, you can BET there would be very strong links with extreme elements back in muslim countries. muslim countries themselves will become more and more radicalized. generally, the **** will be hitting the fan.
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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:31
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quote:
Originally posted by techumseh
It's looking more and more as if the Bush regime is losing it's war in the Middle East. It's the old adage, "don't take what you can't hold." |
If they start inflicting 30 KIA's a week on a regular basis, then maybe you're on to something. However, "losing" isn't really it. Worst case, they'll just demonstrate that occupation and reform is a pain in the ass, so let's just send 'em back to the stone age and **** 'em. That's what the *******s want - a power vacuum so they can assert control, and the majority of the populace doesn't support that - they just don't want to stick their necks out to get chopped off in case we start going lefty and losing our vertebra and balls and leave them in the lurch.
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Iraqi Resistance forces are clearly gaining strength, and having greater military successes against US forces everyday. US command centres are being frequently targeted, and casualties are increasing steadily. The American forces are now on the defensive.
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It's not at all clear that they're "gaining strength" - they're getting more aggressive, and stepping up their number of attacks, but a majority of attacks still are token efforts of popping off a few rounds of smallarms fires or 2-3 wildly scattered mortar rounds, with no casualties. In other words hit and run, but with far more emphasis on "run" than "hit"
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The US remains isolated internationally, most countries refusing to bail them out financially or militarily. The decision of Turkey to withhold troops this week was the latest blow to the Bush regime.
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The Iraqis didn't want the Turks anyway, and if everyone else is too yellow or otherwise not inclined to help out (I wouldn't either, if I was another country's leader), then the US can handle it, and the rest of the world can kiss our ass. It's not like the rest of the world doesn't do that anyway. For all the whining about "illegal wars" and "human rights abuses" at Gitmo, etc., none of the rest of the world makes any real issue of it internationally. We may live in an aggressive empire with a moron for a leader, but y'all live in countries that are unprincipled, spineless lackeys of that empire, and the closest thing to a collective ball you can muster is to not actively cooperate. But taking a stand on moral and purported "international law" principles? Naaaah, no need to be confrontational, we're hypocrites, after all. 
quote:
In Saudi Arabia, he US has been forced to close it's embassy and two consulates from fear of terrorist attacks. Meanwhile, in Afganistan, the Coalition forces control only the area around Kabul and a few cities and bases. Warlords, and increasingly the Taliban, control the rest of the country.
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In Saudi, we closed it for three days due to specific intel. Big whoop. In Afghanistan, the scheme (which I personally am not an advocate of from the outset) was to let warlords (those NA and EA guys we picked as allies, remember them) run their respective areas like they'd been doing since they fought the Soviets. Taleban, shmaleban - the last time they moved in force in the open, we sent about forty of 'em to Allah. They're still ducking in the rocks for the most part.
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The situation is deteriorating daily for the US. How long before they are forced to withdraw completely? |
"Forced to withdraw completely" - oh, that'll happen about the time of the Second Coming of Christ. 
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Dr Strangelove
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Arm the Shiites. Stand back and watch with a certain degree of satisfaction as the battle degenerates into muslim zealots suicide bomb each other. If we play our cards right the Iraqi Civil War might divert the lion's share of extremists from the world over. That would be a pity for the innocent people of Iraq, but also a great object lesson for the muslim world.
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techumseh
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of the frozen North.
Apr 1999
time: 22:31
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At last, a bite! What would I do without you MtG?
quote:
Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
If they start inflicting 30 KIA's a week on a regular basis, then maybe you're on to something. However, "losing" isn't really it. Worst case, they'll just demonstrate that occupation and reform is a pain in the ass, so let's just send 'em back to the stone age and **** 'em. That's what the *******s want - a power vacuum so they can assert control, and the majority of the populace doesn't support that - they just don't want to stick their necks out to get chopped off in case we start going lefty and losing our vertebra and balls and leave them in the lurch. |
Back to the stone age? You've already sent them back a couple of decades. So if they're not suitably grateful, it's another few millenia?
No MtG, you consistently overestimate American power by underestimating the political constraints on it. Even the militarists now in power in Washington cannot completely ignore domestic and international opinion.
And you're wrong about the Iraqi people. They want you the hell gone! Try looking at the world through non-American media for awhile. We see a very different reality than that shown in the US media.
quote:
It's not at all clear that they're "gaining strength" - they're getting more aggressive, and stepping up their number of attacks, but a majority of attacks still are token efforts of popping off a few rounds of smallarms fires or 2-3 wildly scattered mortar rounds, with no casualties. In other words hit and run, but with far more emphasis on "run" than "hit" |
It took several years of fighting before the NLF could get close enough to the American embassy to attack it during Tet in 1968. American security is MUCH worse in Baghdad today, than in Saigon in 1968.
quote:
The Iraqis didn't want the Turks anyway, and if everyone else is too yellow or otherwise not inclined to help out (I wouldn't either, if I was another country's leader), then the US can handle it, and the rest of the world can kiss our ass. It's not like the rest of the world doesn't do that anyway. For all the whining about "illegal wars" and "human rights abuses" at Gitmo, etc., none of the rest of the world makes any real issue of it internationally. We may live in an aggressive empire with a moron for a leader, but y'all live in countries that are unprincipled, spineless lackeys of that empire, and the closest thing to a collective ball you can muster is to not actively cooperate. But taking a stand on moral and purported "international law" principles? Naaaah, no need to be confrontational, we're hypocrites, after all. |
Despite the fact that the US bullied, threatened and bribed various nations to join in it's aggression, most refused. The exception amoung western countries are those where conservatives are in power (Spain, Italy and Australia), Britain (led by that twit Blair), and an assortment of US aid dependencies in Eastern Europe and the third world.
I think France, Germany, Russia and China are playing a waiting game. By denying the US any legitimacy in Iraq, and forcing them to go it more or less alone, the US gets bogged down and loses both prestige and military and economic strength. This is in the long term interests of all the above powers. It's just a theory, but hey....
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In Saudi, we closed it for three days due to specific intel. Big whoop. In Afghanistan, the scheme (which I personally am not an advocate of from the outset) was to let warlords (those NA and EA guys we picked as allies, remember them) run their respective areas like they'd been doing since they fought the Soviets. Taleban, shmaleban - the last time they moved in force in the open, we sent about forty of 'em to Allah. They're still ducking in the rocks for the most part. |
The fact remains that the US can no longer protect it's diplomatic facilities in the Middle East. How is this winning?
In Afghanistan, the Coaliton and it's puppet Karzai don't really control much of the country at all, except the big cities. The rest is still under the control of the warlords. It's a perfect situation for the Taliban to recruit and grow. Here's a link to a Reuters article which supports this: http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackag...87§ion=news How is this winning the War on Terrorism?
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"Forced to withdraw completely" - oh, that'll happen about the time of the Second Coming of Christ. |
Where have we heard that before?
a) -Chiang Kai-shek in 1947
b) -Gen. Westmoreland in 1967
c) -Leonid Brezhnev in 1982
d) -all of the above
Last edited by techumseh on 09-11-2003 at 02:27
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Lord Merciless
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If we have to leave Iraq, we'll make sure the Kurds want our protection and Shiites and Sunnis kill each other in an endless civil war. The Kurdish North leaves us with 50% of Iraq's oil and an easy base to launch a new invasion should one side cry again for help.
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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:31
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quote:
Originally posted by techumseh
At last, a bite! What would I do without you MtG?
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I won't answer that.
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Back to the stone age? You've already sent them back a couple of decades. So if they're not suitably grateful, it's another few millenia?
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If we've sent them back a couple of decades, then that would be a major improvement, considering the effects of the sanctions imposed by the Lima Deltas in the UN, and the disastrous results for southern Iraq in particular of Saddam's little adventure with the Ayatollahs.
But if there's too much widespread resistance, we have to go back to point one of the lesson - you **** with us a little on our turf, and we will **** with you a hundred or a thousand fold.
quote:
No MtG, you consistently overestimate American power by underestimating the political constraints on it. Even the militarists now in power in Washington cannot completely ignore domestic and international opinion.
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Domestic opinion, no, but yes, we can and often do ignore international opinion on a regular basis. Why? Because the holders of international opinion are generally gutless, and won't stop doing business and whatnot. In short, they have no intention of letting their supposed principles get in the way of their acquisition of principal. 
And these chickenhawks aren't militarists by a long shot. I think their approach has been half-hearted and half-assed from the beginning.
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And you're wrong about the Iraqi people. They want you the hell gone! Try looking at the world through non-American media for awhile. We see a very different reality than that shown in the US media.
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I live in Mexico, so most of the media I see is non-American. I've also done Iraq - not in this goround, but last time. There's no monolithic "the media" - that's the crap for ideologues. There are many subsets, and "reality" is always a bit deeper than leftist or rightist ideology. Of course they want us "gone" - they have no desire to be a defacto colony, when being a lackey has so much prestige. The thing is, most of them want the Baathists gone more, most of them want Shiite fundies with squirrelly ideas gone more, and they all want the Turks gone before they'd ever arrive. They don't want us calling the shots and being the visible authority, but a majority of Iraqis also like (a) the end of sanctions (b) the amount of foreign investment into rebuilding infrastructure (c) being rid of the Baathist *******s. What they want as both an intermediate and long term result is a rapid return to true sovereignty and greater control of local administration and state authority.
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It took several years of fighting before the NLF could get close enough to the American embassy to attack it during Tet in 1968. American security is MUCH worse in Baghdad today, than in Saigon in 1968.
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Not quite true. The VC could have attacked the embassy pretty much at any time, but there was no strategic imperative to do so. They were also hosed by the NVA and NV leadership, because the result of Tet was a huge attrition of VC cadres in the south who might have had some "independent" notions of how things should run in the future. VC elements were active all over the south for years before Tet, including in and around Saigon, but they simply chose not to make one big huge coordinated move until late in the process - had they done it in 1965, the course of the war would have been much different.
quote:
Despite the fact that the US bullied, threatened and bribed various nations to join in it's aggression, most refused. The exception amoung western countries are those where conservatives are in power (Spain, Italy and Australia), Britain (led by that twit Blair), and an assortment of US aid dependencies in Eastern Europe and the third world.
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Well, we all know who'll get the oil, now don't we?
quote:
I think France, Germany, Russia and China are playing a waiting game. By denying the US any legitimacy in Iraq, and forcing them to go it more or less alone, the US gets bogged down and loses both prestige and military and economic strength. This is in the long term interests of all the above powers. It's just a theory, but hey....
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Of course, I don't trust them or expect them to have benevolent reasons for anything, but look at it this way - the more we get bogged down in the short term, the more incentive we have to make whoever controls the spigots for all that Iraqi oil are our boys, not someone else's.
quote:
The fact remains that the US can no longer protect it's diplomatic facilities in the Middle East. How is this winning?
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No diplomatic facilities anywhere can be protected if a terrorist or guerilla force really wants to hit them. It used to be a convention of civilized peoples that you don't **** with other country's embassies. (Just the nests of spies in them, if you can get ahold of any ) These guys don't play by any rules, in fact, they specialize in embassies (despite the fact that most casualties are 3rd nation innocents, not Americans) because they're symbolic targets that are by definition hard to protect, because they're in major urban centers and designed to be accessible.
quote:
In Afghanistan, the Coaliton and it's puppet Karzai don't really control much of the country at all, except the big cities. The rest is still under the control of the warlords. It's a perfect situation for the Taliban to recruit and grow. Here's a link to a Reuters article which supports this: http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackag...87§ion=news How is this winning the War on Terrorism?
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Considering that when we started, the Taleban controlled 95% of the country, and al Qaeda practically swaggered around with impunity and gave live TV interviews. Now we don't see those smug mother****ers swaggering around, OBL, AAZ and Mullah Omar, if they're really alive, are hiding in the boonies afraid to make any direct communictation, lest we intercept it and nail their asses. Mohammed Atef went to Allah, and KSM and Ramsi Binalshibh are probably wishing they did about now, not to mention the hundreds of minor *******s we've killed or captured.
From a nationbuilding perspective, Afghanistan sucks, but from the narrower perspective of severely disrupting AQ and depriving it of open sanctuary areas, the results have been excellent.
quote:
Where have we heard that before?
a) -Chiang Kai-shek in 1947
b) -Gen. Westmoreland in 1967
c) -Leonid Brezhnev in 1982
d) -all of the above |
(a) Certifiable looney who thought the US would bail his ass out of a crack because he and Madame Chiang were regular bridge partners and ******* buddies of MacArthur
(b) Politically hamstrung, and any combat division of the US Army now has more firepower than all allied forces in 'Nam combined. Plus the Iraqis don't have neighboring superpowers supporting them, or decades of tunnel network construction. And it's a lot harder to hide in the terrain in Iraq.
(c) A commie leading the red army. What else need be said?
Nice comeback, but keep tryin'
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Dr Strangelove
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quote:
Originally posted by Datajack Franit
ONLY 10%?? Find me an arab country where 10% is christian!
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Lebanon and Egypt.
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techumseh
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of the frozen North.
Apr 1999
time: 22:31
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quote:
Originally posted by MichaeltheGreat
But if there's too much widespread resistance, we have to go back to point one of the lesson - you **** with us a little on our turf, and we will **** with you a hundred or a thousand fold. |
It's their turf. You're the invader.
quote:
And these chickenhawks aren't militarists by a long shot. I think their approach has been half-hearted and half-assed from the beginning. |
As armchair generals go, you're certainly one of the most aggressive. Sorta like Curtis Lemay on steroids. 
quote:
I live in Mexico, so most of the media I see is non-American. I've also done Iraq - not in this goround, but last time. There's no monolithic "the media" - that's the crap for ideologues. There are many subsets, and "reality" is always a bit deeper than leftist or rightist ideology. |
If you put media coverage of Bush's War on a continum, with Al Jazeera on one end and Fox News at the other, all American networks are pretty close to the Fox end. They're too scared of being accused of being labled
"unpatriotic" to give the American public the straight goods.
British, Canadian and much European media coverage is close to the middle, Russian and Chinese is closer to Al Jazeera. With the internet, there's no longer any excuse to get all your information from CNN. I'm sure that you don't do that, but your mind is pretty much made up.
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Well, we all know who'll get the oil, now don't we? |
You bet! The Iraqi people.
quote:
No diplomatic facilities anywhere can be protected if a terrorist or guerilla force really wants to hit them. It used to be a convention of civilized peoples that you don't **** with other country's embassies. (Just the nests of spies in them, if you can get ahold of any ) These guys don't play by any rules, in fact, they specialize in embassies (despite the fact that most casualties are 3rd nation innocents, not Americans) because they're symbolic targets that are by definition hard to protect, because they're in major urban centers and designed to be accessible. |
Embassies in these kinds of wars have been targets for decades. You can't rationalize away the fact the American interests are LESS secure than when the "War on Terror" began.
quote:
Considering that when we started, the Taleban controlled 95% of the country, and al Qaeda practically swaggered around with impunity and gave live TV interviews. Now we don't see those smug mother****ers swaggering around, OBL, AAZ and Mullah Omar, if they're really alive, are hiding in the boonies afraid to make any direct communictation, lest we intercept it and nail their asses. Mohammed Atef went to Allah, and KSM and Ramsi Binalshibh are probably wishing they did about now, not to mention the hundreds of minor *******s we've killed or captured. |
Well spoken, Leonid, er, MtG. Take a bow, comrade!
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(b) Politically hamstrung, and any combat division of the US Army now has more firepower than all allied forces in 'Nam combined. Plus the Iraqis don't have neighboring superpowers supporting them, or decades of tunnel network construction. And it's a lot harder to hide in the terrain in Iraq. |
Like Westy, you see war in terms of firepower. It's a conventional military concept for a conventional war. That phase is over, dude! 
No neighboring superpower, true. But neither does the US have a colonial upper class, state institutions or an existing army to work with. They're alone in a desert full of enemies. Shades of Gordon!
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Sandman
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Sinister Penguin
Aug 2001
time: 05:31
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quote:
Originally posted by Datajack Franit
ONLY 10%?? Find me an arab country where 10% is christian!
As if 6 millions of arabs weren't enough to cause problems in a country of 60- that means that in the last 20 years, 10 millions of european-frenchmen just disappeared? What will happen in 2050 then |
Syria, Lebanon. Jordan is 6% Christian. By contrast, the EU average is 4% Muslim.
Anyway, why limit it to Arab countries? I'd guess at least half of the EU Muslim population is not Arabic; Turkish, Iranian, Pakistani or Bangladeshi.
In 1950, France had 42 million inhabitants. Now it has almost 60 million. There have been no 'disappearances'. France also has the highest birth rate in the EU, at 1.9 children per woman; almost at replacement levels.
Italy, on the other hand, is a demographic mess.
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MichaeltheGreat
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Apolyton Grand Executioner
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mooning the house that Ruth built.
Oct 1999
time: 21:31
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quote:
Originally posted by techumseh
It's their turf. You're the invader.
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The general war, let's face it, is against uppity arab thugs, radical fundamental islamic thugs, etc. Just like they do the "an enemy of my enemy is my friend" thang, we do the "one enemy is as good as another whether they're really that cozy or not" thang.
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As armchair generals go, you're certainly one of the most aggressive. Sorta like Curtis Lemay on steroids.
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My generaling is chairborne, but it's derived from my sergeanting which was airborne, Ranger and Pathfinder. That lends itself to a precise focus on key issues and a lack of desire to waste time ****ing around. Oh, and LeMay had some good ideas, at least for an airedale puke.
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If you put media coverage of Bush's War on a continum, with Al Jazeera on one end and Fox News at the other, all American networks are pretty close to the Fox end. They're too scared of being accused of being labled
"unpatriotic" to give the American public the straight goods.
British, Canadian and much European media coverage is close to the middle, Russian and Chinese is closer to Al Jazeera. With the internet, there's no longer any excuse to get all your information from CNN. I'm sure that you don't do that, but your mind is pretty much made up.
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My mind was made up beforehand, when I opposed the war because I didn't think we were properly prepared for it, that withdrawal would never be an option, due to the encouragement that would give the *******s.
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You bet! The Iraqi people.
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But of course. We're doing it all for them. (and the fact we can get them to manipulate supplies for our benefit)
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Embassies in these kinds of wars have been targets for decades. You can't rationalize away the fact the American interests are LESS secure than when the "War on Terror" began.
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Not at all. At worst, they're no better, but that's somewhat silly, because both AQ and JI are operationally degraded to a great extent. September 10, 2001 and before, we had an illusion of greater security, but that was because a lot of people had their heads up there ass and really didn't figure that a few loonies would ratchet things up as much as they did. Two African embassies to the USS Cole to a multiple hijacking/kamikaze of major targets in the US was one hell of an escalation, but also one that could only have occurred in a relatively lax security and leadership environment.
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Well spoken, Leonid, er, MtG. Take a bow, comrade!
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Leonid never figured out quite what he was about in Afghanistan. Particularly, why would anyone familiar with "the great game" ever try to run the place? I guess he never read Tennyson or Kipling. We've already accomplished our primary goals in Afghanistan, so if it goes totally back to ****, frankly, it's no great loss from our perspective. I personally would like to see some actual nationbuilding and an expansion of central government control, but even if that never happens, the situation now, from our perspective, is a hell of a lot better than it was on September 10, 2001 or before.
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Like Westy, you see war in terms of firepower. It's a conventional military concept for a conventional war. That phase is over, dude!
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I never spent time with heavy or conventional units, so I don't see war as mass firepower. In my view, and this is my kind of fighting, war is about short-term overmatching of firepower based on mobility and real time intel.
The reason I want a couple of extra lightfighter divisions to take apart the Sunni triangle a town and section at a time is to rid the enemy of warfighting materiel, not to capture many of them per se, because they'll just blend. But force the bastards to have to resupply, and they'll move to supply caches, or supplies will be moved to them. Use UAV and tactial recon with night vision capability, wireless motion sensor nets dropped in the valley and marsh country, and along the border, and other toys of the unconventional warfare trade, and lots of local, independent, small rapid reaction forces to start carrying a counter-guerilla war to the specific *******s that are resisting us.
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No neighboring superpower, true. But neither does the US have a colonial upper class, state institutions or an existing army to work with. They're alone in a desert full of enemies. Shades of Gordon! |
Yeah, but we've got oil, so we can buy all that crap.
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Makromizer
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quote:
Originally posted by Sandman
Syria, Lebanon. Jordan is 6% Christian. By contrast, the EU average is 4% Muslim.
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MS Encarta says, Lebanon has about 40% christians. Would also make sense, thinking about the lebanon-war. What's your source?
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Makromizer
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Ah, right. I've read something like "Syria, Lebanon, Jordan is 6% Christian.". Well, dead horse anyway, just forgot to look at the date.
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09-11-2003 00:12
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