19-11-2003 09:48									#1
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Is war between China and Taiwan inevitable?

quote: China growling over Taiwan stance Threatens use of force over island’s independence aims ASSOCIATED PRESS BEIJING, Nov. 19 — Raising the stakes in an already tense situation, China threatened in remarks published Wednesday that “the use of force may become unavoidable” if the island pursues independence — the mainland’s strongest statement in years against its archrival. BUT WANG ZAIXI, a top mainland official who deals with the Taiwan issue, also said China felt close to the Taiwanese people and was “not willing to meet at the battleground.” Wang, vice-minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said curbing Taiwan’s efforts toward independence is the main goal of the mainland, which will go to war if necessary. “If the Taiwan authorities collude with all ... forces to openly engage in pro-independence activities and challenge the mainland and the one-China principle, the use of force may become unavoidable,” Wang was quoted as saying in the China Daily. Separatists were “set to pay a high cost if they think we will not use force,” Wang said. “Taiwan independence means war.” The Chinese Cabinet’s Taiwan Affairs Office in Beijing had no immediate comment on Wednesday. Beijing has long threatened the use of force against Taiwan if it formally declares independence, but rarely so dramatically. The two sides split amid civil war in 1949, and Beijing insists that Taiwan belongs to China and must accept eventual unification. The article in China Daily, a state-controlled, English-language newspaper with a wide foreign audience, ran under a bold headline: “Independence stance may trigger war.” TAIWAN ELECTIONS PENDING ‘That Chen is using ... presidential running tools to get himself re-elected and to push our Taiwanese compatriots to the brink of conflict with the motherland is immoral ... ’ — WANG ZAIXI vice-minister, Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council Wang’s remarks came as Taiwan prepares to elect a new leader next March. Recent public polls show that President Chen Shui-bian has gained popularity with voters since he came up with plans for a new constitution last month. He has also introduced a law referendums that could lead to citizens voting on Taiwan’s independence. The introduction of a new constitution and referendums are “extremely dangerous behaviors,” Wang was quoted as saying by the official Xinhua News Agency. He was speaking at a seminar on cross-straits relations. “That Chen is using ... presidential running tools to get himself re-elected and to push our Taiwanese compatriots to the brink of conflict with the motherland is immoral and is behavior that will destroy peace in the Straits of Taiwan,” Wang said. “The people of Taiwan are our brothers and sisters,” he said. “We are not willing to meet at the battleground.” On Tuesday, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said the Bush administration would deploy sufficient force in the Asia-Pacific area to lower tensions between China and Taiwan. “We have good competent forces there,” Armitage said as he also offered assurances that the Bush administration would provide Taiwan with “sufficient defense articles for her self-defense.” Armitage told reporters that “we have full faith that the question of Taiwan will be resolved peacefully.” ‘CRITICAL HISTORICAL JUNCTURE’ When Chen ran for president in Taiwan in 2000, he was the candidate Beijing disliked most because his opposition party had called for independence for Taiwan. Then-Premier Zhu Rongji and state-run media warned Taiwan voters that a Chen victory could lead to war. “The people of Taiwan are standing at a very critical historical juncture, so let me give advice to all the people of Taiwan: Do not act just on impulse,” Zhu said during a news conference. “Otherwise you will regret it very much and it will be too late to repent.” Last month, Beijing condemned Taiwan’s leaders for their push for independence but stopped short of threatening war. “The separatist activities by Taiwan independence elements directly endangers the basic interests of Taiwan compatriots, and it is a disaster for Taiwan,” an unidentified spokesman from the Taiwan Affairs office was quoted as saying by Xinhua. “Activities like this cannot be tolerated by the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation.”

	19-11-2003 10:20									#2
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maybe ww3 will happen after all

	19-11-2003 11:09									#3
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I doubt it. The 'growling' is just part of the policy for China. They want Taiwan and the world to know that they believe that Taiwan is 'an inseparable part of China.' I seriously doubt it will come to blows though.

	19-11-2003 12:09									#4
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China is saying that simply that for consumption on the home front.

They know that the US will defend Taiwan, or will at least try, unless China is democratic.

	19-11-2003 12:10									#5
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No

	19-11-2003 12:48									#6
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quote: Originally posted by POTUS China is saying that simply that for consumption on the home front. They know that the US will defend Taiwan, or will at least try, unless China is democratic.

The US has it's collective corporate noses so far up cheap-labor-and-no-real-regulations China's ass that there is no way in hell the US will go to war against China over Taiwan. At most, you'd see some proforma yowling and a teensy bit of saber rattling, without any real meaningfull interruption of business. They played chicken with an Elint plane of ours, forced it down, detained the crew and took the plane apart, harvesting all sorts of nice classified stuff, and we didn't ultimately do squat about that.

Ultimately, the US would find a way to rationalize how it was the Taiwanese' own fault for getting uppity and aggravating China too much, so we're not obligated to do more than express our "grave concerns" and let Taiwan swing in the breeze.

It's more of the same reason we don't have the balls to deal with Saudi Arabia in any serious fashion, and we never will, unless a future Saudi government proves too inconvenient.

	19-11-2003 14:16									#7
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Hmm ... so, MtG, what do you think? Would China ever really go after Taiwan militarily? I seem to recall that, in previous threads, it was thought that China wouldn't really be able to do anything offensively for another decade or so. Does that still hold water?

Gatekeeper

	19-11-2003 14:45									#8
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The problem Taiwan has is that it does not have a defensive alliance with the US as an independent nation. I don't think we have any obligation to Taiwan if they declare independence.

Our policy is that Taiwan and China must peacefully settle their disputes and that there is only one China. If Taiwan goes a different direction, they go alone. And if they go alone, certainly China will attack. This is almost like the South rebelling against the United States in 1861. Lincoln did not let them go.

	19-11-2003 15:06									#9
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What Michael said.

	19-11-2003 16:15									#10
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Nah, Taiwanese businessmen have invested too many billions in the mainland for them not to toe the line if the PRC really starts cracking the whip.

	19-11-2003 23:40									#11
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Things will continue the way they are.

	19-11-2003 23:51									#12
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china's army could do it, if it got to the island. the problem is getting there, and china doesn't have enough amphibious forces.

	19-11-2003 23:55									#13
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It's inevitable. Every country seems to go to war with it's neigbours at some point or another.

	19-11-2003 23:56									#14
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Blame Canada! Blame Canada!

	19-11-2003 23:58									#15
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War is never inevitable.

	20-11-2003 00:03									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Q Cubed china's army could do it, if it got to the island. the problem is getting there, and china doesn't have enough amphibious forces.

They could build a bridge out of corpses if they really wanted to.

	20-11-2003 00:20									#17
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the chinese are good at that.

so are russians, who built their entire capital of yore on bones in a swamp.

	20-11-2003 07:02									#18
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Beside having America's corporate noses up in their ass, Taiwanese ones are even farther up in China's rectum. Addiction to cheap labors and unlimited markets is almost impossible to cure. Unless China shoots into its own foot seriously, I foresee a Hong Kong like solution for Taiwan within 10 years.

	20-11-2003 07:24									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Ned The problem Taiwan has is that it does not have a defensive alliance with the US as an independent nation. I don't think we have any obligation to Taiwan if they declare independence.

Taiwan has a 60-year alliance with the US and an explicitly stated and often repeated guarantee that the US will defend them in the event of a communist invasion. Since PRC has such a crap Air Force and Navy they really have no chance of actually landing in Taiwan with enough forces to do the job. All the US has to do is have a couple of aircraft carrier battle groups control the skies over the straights while subs block direct trans-straight military traffic and you have conditions under which the Chinese cannot successfully launch an invasion.

	20-11-2003 07:36									#20
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quote: Blame Canada! Blame Canada!

Nudges switch on STEALTH NATION DEFENSE.

Why do you keep slipping?

	20-11-2003 07:46									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Osweld It's inevitable. Every country seems to go to war with it's neigbours at some point or another.

and you're a simple minded moron!

	20-11-2003 07:51									#22
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quote: Originally posted by Oerdin Taiwan has a 60-year alliance with the US and an explicitly stated and often repeated guarantee that the US will defend them in the event of a communist invasion. Since PRC has such a crap Air Force and Navy they really have no chance of actually landing in Taiwan with enough forces to do the job. All the US has to do is have a couple of aircraft carrier battle groups control the skies over the straights while subs block direct trans-straight military traffic and you have conditions under which the Chinese cannot successfully launch an invasion.

they can if the nuke the U.S.

	20-11-2003 08:40									#23
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Chinese naval development has concentrated on developing attack submarines and anti-sub capabilities. They are now talking about a true blue water navy. Massive surface to air missle barrages, shore to ship missle attacks, and robust anti-sub and ship activities could nullify the impact that US naval airpower could have. The Taiwanese have a formidable defense capability in their own right and would provide major problems for the Chinese, but the Chinese simply have to much to close to be stopped without a massive US effort.

The security guarantees that the US has provided are verbal and nothing formal exists. In recent years the US has even backed off on solid verbal guarantees. It is likely that the US would through Taiwan under the bus if push came to shove. They would, of course, negotiate a "special status" for Taiwan, but the result would be the same...another expansion of an ever growing Chinese empire.

As far as nuking the US...not even the Chinese are that stupid

	20-11-2003 10:33									#24
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Well, the USA has the world's most powerful army and it can barely control Iraq and Afghanistan. Ought to be lesson enough to anyone thinking of invading anywhere.

There'd still be an independence movement, and rather than it being a bunch of loudmouthed politicians, there'd be people blowing up buildings.

	20-11-2003 10:35									#25
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Militarily speaking, the Chinese could shoot missiles at Taiwan for weeks, and wreck the place beyond repair, but that might sorta defeat the purpose of trying to get Taiwan. The PRC would not be able to put enough ground troops on the island at one time to actually take it, from what I can see.

	20-11-2003 12:02									#26
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quote: Originally posted by David Floyd Militarily speaking, the Chinese could shoot missiles at Taiwan for weeks, and wreck the place beyond repair,

Pyrrhus could have used a man like you on his staff.

	28-11-2003 07:19									#27
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War is avoidable.

For now, China mostly uses the nationalistic rethoric on the home front, and the Chinese government will grow increasingly nationalistic as the economic growth will falter, and as the population will grow more restless against the regime.
Most likely, the Chinese government will become Milosevic-like, and it will try to get legitimacy by chanelling people's hatred toward other countries.

However, the shift to nationalism will become dramatic only when the economic growth will stop. Until then, the growth is enough to make sure the Chinese population stays calm.
When China will stop being growing, it will very probably be a real geopolitical danger for any other major power, including the US (I'm speaking about the 2010's or the 2020's). At that point in the future, the US will not run the risk of entering war with China only to support the tiny and unimportant Taiwan island.

Without US support, the Taiwanese will stand by themselves against an agressive China. Whether there will be war or not will depend on how much the Taiwanese and their leaders value their survival. The assimilation of Taiwan in Chinese territory is likely not to be too bloody if the Taiwanese don't resist. But since the Taiwanese are very independence-minded, chances are it'll be a horrid bloodbath

	28-11-2003 07:34									#28
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nah, no war at all. it would be economically ruinous both for China and Taiwan.

	28-11-2003 16:19									#29
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Yesterday, the Taiwanese legislature passed a mild form of the "referundum act" as proposed by the KMT and its allies. This takes the sting out of Chen's ploy as not to anger the PRC.

	28-11-2003 16:21									#30
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Good for them.