22-11-2003 01:37									#1
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Sure looks that way.

Gephardt HAS to win in Iowa to survive, and even if does he still has to build momentum somewhere else. Kerry looks likely to lose in NH and disappear. Clarks out of Iowa, in real bad shape in NH, and not really coming together. Edwards looks in very bad shape, a loss in SC would eliminate him. Joe maybe most likely to survive as not-Dean, but hes not catching fire, and doesnt appeal to the Clinton-McAullife establishment, unlikely to pull out nomination.

Dean, OTOH, could eliminate 2 or 3 rivals with wins in Iowa and NH, and has most money, and strongest org, and has gotten key union endorsements.

	22-11-2003 01:40									#2
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No... while he definetly has a much better chance than I thought possible (I never expected the Dems to pull a 'Goldwater'), Kerry and Libermann still have good chances to win out. I still think Kerry wins in the end. He's the establishment guy and will stay the course. I think (Bill) Clinton will endorse him and that will help greatly.

Even if Kerry loses in both Iowa and NH, he won't disappear anytime soon.

	22-11-2003 01:40									#3
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NOt yet, but the other candidates are not doing much, given how much anti-Dean stuff goes to press daily..I mean, honestly, when every paper keeps pounding on how Dean can never get elected (same papers that said no way Gore gets more votes than Bush, with his left-wing populist message in 2000), why don't Kerry and Gephard get a move on, as well as Clarcke? Honestly, I don't see enough grassroots support for Lieberman for him to make it- as well as he might do on polls, the people who do get involved at the grass roots level simply are not backing him.

	22-11-2003 01:46									#4
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui No... while he definetly has a much better chance than I thought possible (I never expected the Dems to pull a 'Goldwater'), Kerry and Libermann still have good chances to win out. I still think Kerry wins in the end. He's the establishment guy and will stay the course. I think (Bill) Clinton will endorse him and that will help greatly. Even if Kerry loses in both Iowa and NH, he won't disappear anytime soon.

establishment guy should be rolling in money - Kerry may have to dig into wifes money to counter Dean. No major union endorsements. A poor second in next door to home state New Hampshire is very bad news. If he cant win there is there anywhere in the North he can stop Dean? that means stopping him in the south (why Kerry announced in South Carolina) But what does Kerry have in the South - i think his war record thing is wearing thin - he's up against 2 southerners (edwards and Clark) and one yankee whose ideology and religiosity have appeal in the south - Joe - and one guy with stronger economic and union appeal - Gephardt. And the best resource for a liberal in the South - the black vote - doesnt seem to be one Kerry has much appeal to (in contrast to Clinton) I cant see Kerry stopping Dean in the South - at most he might make it harder for someone else to consolidate the AntiDean vote.

	22-11-2003 01:48									#5
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I'm still not pleased with any of them, but Dean has it pretty much locked up.

	22-11-2003 01:48									#6
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"same papers that said no way Gore gets more votes than Bush, with his left-wing populist message in 2000), "

well thats cause we all knew that Gore was still a sensible centrist when it came to most policies. heck, I voted for Gore in 2000, without any nervousness about his policies - and surely you dont consider me a raving leftie, do you

	22-11-2003 01:50									#7
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He doesn't have it locked. The dems could have a divided primary electorate if things don't shake out soon, with Dean running through much of his cash. This is the worst case scenario for the dems.

	22-11-2003 01:51									#8
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Bush is certainly hoping so.

	22-11-2003 01:53									#9
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"I mean, honestly, when every paper keeps pounding on how Dean can never get elected "

that may be true, but hardly matters I think - I mean who has stronger numbers in a 2 way with Bush? Only Clark I think, and not by much. Now theres a lot more that could be said about that from a strategic viewpoint, but to the average Dem primary voter i dont think theres an overwhelming case that anybody else is that much stronger against Bush than Dean. And quite frankly I think the left and other core activists are tired of sucking it up for the good of the party - theyve done it three times in a row now, and the last time, in 2000, the DLC candidate(Gore) blew it, and i think they no have patience for DLC lectures on electability. especially with Dean rolling in money.

	22-11-2003 01:54									#10
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui No... while he definetly has a much better chance than I thought possible (I never expected the Dems to pull a 'Goldwater'),

Dont forget, after the GOP right got Goldwater out of there system, they accepted a moderate electable Republican twice in a row.

	22-11-2003 01:57									#11
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Bush will have so much more money that it does not matter, he wins the money game, period.

The thing is, legislators have little chance of getting elected because they have no executive experience, and they have to justify every vote they make during the campaing. Can anyone name the last senator to become president?

	22-11-2003 01:58									#12
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark Dont forget, after the GOP right got Goldwater out of there system, they accepted a moderate electable Republican twice in a row.

Ford was electable? and if you meant Reagan..well, what is your definition of moderate? cause Goldwater did transform the Republican party, even with his loss.

	22-11-2003 02:00									#13
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Dean has done a very good job at his campaign. I've been very impressed. But that doesn't make him any less of a Goldwater type.

	22-11-2003 02:00									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui (I never expected the Dems to pull a 'Goldwater')

The McGovern campaign should have told you differently.

	22-11-2003 02:02									#15
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I am sorry, but if Bush wins it will not be due to any of his actions, but the points of view he represents- there is just so much to attack this white house on, specially it's "pledge to bring back integrity"..I mean, when the military press satrts to villify your "pro-military" administration..what positives are left?

If the country is in a Bush state of mind, then no democract could win..and if they aren't, any dem, save Sharpton, Kusinich and Mosely-Brown (probalby misspelled, but so what?)

	22-11-2003 02:05									#16
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quote: if Bush wins it will not be due to any of his actions, but the points of view he represents

FYI, this is the way all presidential campaigns work. It is classic coalition building.

	22-11-2003 02:07									#17
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Not really-there have been plenty of presonality driven campaings- Teddy Rooselvelt, Ronald Reagan, FDR, kennedy are people who won either becuase of their own background and charms, or becuase their predecessor was so disliked, or both.

	22-11-2003 02:08									#18
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Bush will have so much more money that it does not matter, he wins the money game, period. The thing is, legislators have little chance of getting elected because they have no executive experience, and they have to justify every vote they make during the campaing. Can anyone name the last senator to become president?

Without prior service as VP, it would be JFK. With prior service as VP , it would be Nixon.

	22-11-2003 02:08									#19
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I'm just telling you how campaigns are run, not how successful they are in running them.

	22-11-2003 02:09									#20
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Having just worked a LOT of hours in a campaing.... (and one that won...)

	22-11-2003 02:10									#21
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quote: that means stopping him in the south (why Kerry announced in South Carolina) But what does Kerry have in the South - i think his war record thing is wearing thin - he's up against 2 southerners (edwards and Clark) and one yankee whose ideology and religiosity have appeal in the south - Joe - and one guy with stronger economic and union appeal - Gephardt.

I think Kerry can make inroads in the South. Southern Democrats are still fairly conservative, and they aren't too fond of Liebermann (He's Jewish and they want a Christian). Edwards isn't considered a heavyweight, hardly any experience. I think Kerry could run with the South.

	22-11-2003 02:10									#22
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GePap: Presidential?

	22-11-2003 02:10									#23
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Ford was electable? and if you meant Reagan..well, what is your definition of moderate? cause Goldwater did transform the Republican party, even with his loss.

I meant Nixon in '68 and '72 ( i suppose you could discount the latter cause Nixon was an incumbent, but on purely ideological grounds the right had plenty of reason to be unhappy about Nixon in '72, and at the start of the campaing he didnt look so overwhelming.)

BTW - of couse Ford was electable, he came very close to being elected.

	22-11-2003 02:11									#24
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I am sorry, but if Bush wins it will not be due to any of his actions, but the points of view he represents- there is just so much to attack this white house on, specially it's "pledge to bring back integrity"..I mean, when the military press satrts to villify your "pro-military" administration..what positives are left? If the country is in a Bush state of mind, then no democract could win..and if they aren't, any dem, save Sharpton, Kusinich and Mosely-Brown (probalby misspelled, but so what?)

Im quite sure there will be fence sitters for whom it will matter who the Dem is.

In any case I was hoping to discuss the horserace on the Dem side, not the general election.

	22-11-2003 02:15									#25
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quote: The McGovern campaign should have told you differently.

I thought they'd changed

Really, when I thought the Dems could give me someone I could vote for, they try to put in some wacko instead... bleh!

	22-11-2003 02:16									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: that means stopping him in the south (why Kerry announced in South Carolina) But what does Kerry have in the South - i think his war record thing is wearing thin - he's up against 2 southerners (edwards and Clark) and one yankee whose ideology and religiosity have appeal in the south - Joe - and one guy with stronger economic and union appeal - Gephardt. I think Kerry can make inroads in the South. Southern Democrats are still fairly conservative, and they aren't too fond of Liebermann (He's Jewish and they want a Christian). Edwards isn't considered a heavyweight, hardly any experience. I think Kerry could run with the South.

southern (WHITE) dems may be conservative - but is Kerry? Enough so to do well? I dont think so.

Im not sure Joes Judaism hurts him that much in the South. In 2000 he seemed to draw very well in the South - his overt religiosity played well, and he could express it more openly in some ways than a Christian could. I think most culturally conservative southern white would prefer a religious Jew to a secularist Christian - and which of the DEM candidates comes across as a religious christian (other than Al Sharpton) - no Jimmy Carter this time around. There may be antisemites in the south, but few in the Dem party I think. And dont forget at least half of the Dem vote in the South is Black - does Kerry have any appeal to them?

	22-11-2003 02:17									#27
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quote: Originally posted by GePap and if you meant Reagan..well, what is your definition of moderate? cause Goldwater did transform the Republican party, even with his loss.

well yeah, and i dont rule out Dean transforming the Dems, even if it takes 16 years to see the fruits.

	22-11-2003 02:20									#28
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Kerry threw away his leader-status, Edwards has gone nowhere, neither have Lieberman and Gephardt and Clarcke has gone back down..

1. The south does not matter in the internal dmeocratic race (honestly, there is little the dems can do to win most of it-Florida, Georgia and North Carolina maybe, but most of the deep south, why even try unless black turnout was the largest ever), so the canard that only a southern democract can make it won;t work too much..

2. Iraq- Gephardt and Lieberman are the two most encumbered by this war, given that both are the most enthusiastic dem supporters in the race. Continually justifying the war (just like Bush) won;t get them far with the people who will vote in Dem primaries.

3. Trade- This is where gephardt has the most strenght, with unions, but he has not kept up on other issues. None of the other candidates have done much, save Dean, who now has the big unions with him.

It boils down to grassroots and party faithfull support- Dean has shown he has a base simply by how much he has raised from so many. None of the other dems, even with party institutional support, have shown anything like an energized support base.

	22-11-2003 02:22									#29
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quote: southern (WHITE) dems may be conservative - but is Kerry? Enough so to do well? I dont think so.

Who'd beat him? Kerry plays better than Liebermann down here, I can tell you that... then again, Bush plays best of all .

	22-11-2003 02:32									#30
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quote: Originally posted by GePap 1. The south does not matter in the internal dmeocratic race (honestly, there is little the dems can do to win most of it-Florida, Georgia and North Carolina maybe, but most of the deep south, why even try unless black turnout was the largest ever), so the canard that only a southern democract can make it won;t work too much..

the south matter cause it has a lot of delegates. But if somebody comes out dominant in the north, and no one is dominant in the south that doesnt matter. Re the general election. Dems may only be able to win a few southern states, but those states are still crucial to an electoral college majority.

quote: 2. Iraq- Gephardt and Lieberman are the two most encumbered by this war, given that both are the most enthusiastic dem supporters in the race. Continually justifying the war (just like Bush) won;t get them far with the people who will vote in Dem primaries.

And the timing is very bad for Joe and Gephardt. Even if Iraq turns around, it may be in time to help Bush, but not in time to help Dem hawks, given the early weighting of the primary season. (BTW - in my more paranoid conspiratorial moments it strikes me that it would be to Bush's advantage to hold back any intell that justifies the Iraq war - like eviedence of WMD - till AFTER Dean had locked up the nomination - farfetched I know, but Im not sure id put it past this White House - at least Karl Rove)