22-11-2003 14:02									#1
	Newsflash! GCA caught cheating! (err... ok, not really) Support Apolyton, buy Civilization III: Complete

Yesterday, BF, Arnelos and myself were talking about the possibility of having a more tangible proof of GCA alterning RNG results. I think its is best to share this with the team since it may be a one-time shot at proving GCA is in fact doing something sneaky.

First of all, as we know, Mongoose found no evidence of GCA using strange combat tactics (i.e. wierd move orders etc) to get favorable results. This however, does not make it impossible that GCA is in fact reloading and "testing the waters" before committing to a battle which they are guaranteed to win. So far, we have lost at least 8 Numidians and since our GA hasn't been triggered, it means that all the units which have attacked them have either survived or safely retreated.

You don't need Arnelos to tell you those are damn high odds. One or two or even three turns of luck are justified. An entire war of luck is just outrageous (let alone the fact their non-mil civ has gotten like 3 leaders).

Unfortunately there really isn't any way to PROVE that you reload a save. So, that means that despite most people where claim GCA has cheating, our arms are tied in that we have no case to bring forth to Mongoose. That, however, has changed.

THE SITUATION:

As some of you know, due to the delay of this turn due to the GWT incident, CGN offered to send us an "unofficial save" to plan our moves ahead of time. In that save, CGN's galley, which had attempted a suicide run to our continent survived. With that save we also saw the combat results of GCA's offensive moves where they (unsurprisingly) didn't lose anything and killed some mercs.

Fast forward to wednesday when we got the "real" save. On first glance everything is exactly the same. Same units lost. But wait, CGN's galley sank! How is this possible? Well, it is quite possible that GWT did something unknowningly that altered the RNG and provoked the CGN galley to sink. Buuuut.... why then are all of GCA's combat results apparently the same? Assuming that the RNG changed (which of course it did), how could GCA gotten an exact run of luck against our units?

This is very strange. It might of course be just one more big huge coincidence, but it could also be tangiable proof that GCA is doing something to alter RNG results to get those that they want. The method might be simply reloading or something that few of us know, the fact is that for the first time we have a small shred of proveable evidence.

Now two things:

1) We need someone to compare both saves, analize pips, damage, retreats etc. and prove that the results were exactly the same. Only by proving this do we actually have a case

2) If so, we need to present the case to mongoose. This will however require a lot of admin responsibility since he will have to replay two saves to test the results. It might be too much but its worth a shot.

So, comments, should we try and investigate this further or just grin and bear each Merc we lose to a horse?

-MZ

	22-11-2003 14:08									#2
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EDIT: WB just told me CGN's galley sunk in the unofficial turn, and survived in the real one.

	22-11-2003 14:23									#3
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We also need mongoose to look at the save sent by GWT (the CC'ed one supposed to be sent to mongoose with every turn every team sends) and not the one supplied by GCA. In fact, as Arnelos pointed out, it would be better if mongoose plays the GWT turn and THEN the GCA turn, in succession, to see if the play is legit. So, mongoose needs to play the turn sent to him by CFC and play it as GWT reports they have, then hit "continue turn" and play GCA's turn as they have indicated. If this turns up nothing, then there's no way we can prove that GCA is cheating/reloading. We simply have to bite the bullet and move on.

	22-11-2003 19:46									#4
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I have a question. How many Mercs have we lost so far in the war? As we know, all battles involving mercs have resulted in a CGA win or a Horse retreat. I was curious on what the approximate odds are at the current time.

	22-11-2003 22:46									#5
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I believe it is 8 that we have lost in battles against GCA where GAC was on the offense.

	22-11-2003 22:54									#6
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A very simple calculation for the 8 horseman victories against NM. Assuming vet vs vet, and the weakest , non-fortified terrain for the NM, the odds of the horse winning are 25%, or .25.

So the odds of winning all 8 are .25 to the power of 8, or .00001526, which translates into about a 1 in 65,000 chance.

	22-11-2003 23:08									#7
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those are lottery odds.

E_T

	22-11-2003 23:28									#8
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Not all victories for GCA were accounted to Horsemen. There was a turn that we were parked outside of Algalord in which they could have used Swords/Archers.

	22-11-2003 23:36									#9
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Agreed - but at any time were our NM's fortified, or on hills. I have assumed non-fortified and 10% terrain bonus for all attacks. As I said - a quick and dirty calculation.

We can rebuild each situation - as best as we know - and compile the odds. But I believe that was attemped earlier.

	23-11-2003 01:21									#10
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Many of the NM were fortified when killed, several protected by catapults. That said, two of them were killed by a Swordsman Army and a Swordsman (respectively).

	23-11-2003 04:37									#11
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Some comments.
1)It is possible that 2 nations could through their actions and cooperating with each other could coordinate moves in such a way to have favorable results.

2) I see a big problem with getting an "unofficial save" before the other team has played. In our current situation this isn't a problem, but let me give an example. During the GOW/ND vs RP/GS war there have been times that we saw vulnerable targets that would have required a coordinated attack. If we had seen an "unofficial save" we could have passed the knowledge onto ND. Now you all know me and know I wouldn't do such a thing, but this doesn't mean that there wouldn't be a temptation for another. The same applies here, by getting the save we could give an ally an advanatge.(Not right now, but we can see how it could happen).

Additionally we could use the unofficial save to test moves and then ask our ally to do actions that could alter the RDG until we get the desired results. This could be done with "reasonable actions" and thus make it all look real. Then the save could be "sent"and Mongoose and the others would never know. Perhaps this is what is happening.

Regardless, I call upon our team to agree NEVER again use an unofficial save. It is simply too much of a dangerous area, regardless of whether we do unethical actions or not.

Aggie

	23-11-2003 04:50									#12
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I have lost most of my interest in this war (and the rest of the isdg) because of all this cheating and exploiting. I'm sure some others have too. It's sad people just can't play a game fairly.

	23-11-2003 05:15									#13
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Aggie, we did not use the save. CGN sent it so that we could anticipate our moves. GWT was supposed to just replay without the exploit. Moves were not supposed to be different, but apparently they were since the Randon Number was at a different point for CGN. If the turns were played exatly as they were before, then the Random number would have been the same.

I hear you Hagbert, it's hard to maintain doing all the work needed when you know others are cheating. But, we have little recourse right now; well, except for ahving mongoose investigate, once again. Though this time doing it as it was suggeted by MZ, Arnelos and myself.

	23-11-2003 19:32									#14
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I think this is a road to no where personally. We've already had Mongoose check their turn once, CFC did once, nothing came of it. If he can get the same results they got by following their turn orders, and there is nothing in them screaming cheat (like initiating a wonder) then we'll be right back where we started....only with the other teams even more annoyed than before about the delay.

The galley not sinking *is* a sign that the RNG changed, but that could of just of easily came from GWT changing just 1 order, and doesn't necessarily prove GCA changed something.

	24-11-2003 00:08									#15
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There's just one thing I want to check on though. If mongoose played a .sav sent to him by GCA rather than one sent by GWT, then it's entirely possible that GCA monkeyed with it AND then sent it to mongoose. In that case, yes, mongoose would get the same results that GCA did. To further rule out a two teams working together (yes, this a remote possibility) I would like mongoose to play the .sav sent to him as a 'CC' by CFC. That way he would be playing GWT's and GCA turn consecutively and that would rule out any possible monkey business by either team.

The reason for this is that I do not believe that simple reloading ahs explained all of GCA's luck. Sure, you can manipulate a tunr or two to get you some good outcomes, but this many outcomes is hard to fathom even when reloading. mongoose still has a hard time believeing it as well and I do not expect that he'll have a hard time wanting to conduct this investigation at this time. This can be done 'under the radar' by not holding up the save at any time.

	24-11-2003 00:46									#16
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wervdon:

the galley sinking does not mean that GCA cheated. It just means that the RNG changed for whatever reason. The suspicion arises from the fact that GCA had the exact same combat results despite the fact that the RNG changed in those two saves.

	24-11-2003 03:03									#17
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How is Mongoose suspose to replay two teams turns "under the radar"? Isn't he going to need a precise turn log from both teams to do so?

	24-11-2003 04:24									#18
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Are we sure we're not in our GA?

	24-11-2003 05:32									#19
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quote: Originally posted by wervdon How is Mongoose suspose to replay two teams turns "under the radar"? Isn't he going to need a precise turn log from both teams to do so?

Yeah, that's my thought as well. That said, this needs to be done.

	24-11-2003 06:53									#20
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Dominae, we would know if we were in our GA because it would say so on the screen. I am sure that is something that is checked for each turn.

	24-11-2003 07:14									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Dominae Are we sure we're not in our GA?

Notice the smiley.

	24-11-2003 13:51									#22
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quote: Originally posted by wervdon How is Mongoose suspose to replay two teams turns "under the radar"? Isn't he going to need a precise turn log from both teams to do so?

Well, GWT and GWT would each know that their turns were being looked at. But, the other teams (CFC and CGN) won't know. Also, GWT and GCA won't know that each others turns are being looked at, they will only know about their own. The game will still be moving along and it might not appear to be such a big deal to either of them. They may just think mongoose is just checking on some random thing, or they might think that some team thinks they are cheating...who cares what they think. As long as mongoose thinks that an investigation is warranted, then GCA and GWT have to comply.

	30-11-2003 01:21									#23
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Well, are we going to persue this or not? Should we have a poll on this issue?