01-12-2003 07:34									#1
	360ad -- The Year ND makes their move Remove this text

Here's the situation:

	01-12-2003 07:36									#2
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I see no damaged units, however, I thought we had more than 25 units in Pamplona. Perhaps we lost a lot during our short campaign to the mountains.

We need to know if GS will be able to help us or not.

We will certainly bombard their attacking forces this turn, and then bear down and hope for the best next turn.

--Togas

	01-12-2003 07:41									#3
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Catapult bombardment damaged 5 muskets and 1 pike

	01-12-2003 07:44									#4
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Looking closely at the ND forces, it appears that most of them are damaged. They have only Ansars, Muskets, and Pikes on that group.

I believe they fought a large battle with GS's knights on that mountain range and won. What we're seeing is what's left of their forces. It's clear they never attacked Pamplona, as we are not damaged. Their defensive units are there to protect their wounded Ansars.

But they sure do have a lot of left-over Ansars.

--Togas

	01-12-2003 07:45									#5
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El Nino and Aidun workers IRRIGATE near Barcelona

	01-12-2003 16:32									#6
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You have my approval your majesty

What I find interesting is that their force containst only five "Kavallerie" and all are damaged. I think they must have attacked GS or otherwise the rest of the army wouldn't have existed anymore. The five Kavallerie would indicate that we're not going to face a lot of Ansars. I wonder but what their other troops mean: "Offensive"
The "Defensive" and "Def" clearly stands for pikes or musketteers.

Also interesting is why they would attack with this force. Because it's mostly damaged it's effect cannot be too great. though they still threaten Pamplona.

The reason why they attack is thet they fear that if they don't attack now, it might be too late. That would also explain why their force contains regiments like "def Dreiz": a part of Dreizack's defense and "defensive Zeri" must stand for Defensive regiment of Zerigossa as well as "def Marlo"for the defense of Marlowa. This indicates that ND cannot continue the war much longer: they have to use their defensive resources and thus weaken their homeland.

If this force can be defeated, ND has a very weak defense.
If GS can get their troops away from Yellowcity in time, and directly attacks, then they might get some cities back in an easier way than they might expect.

So far this analysis

Lord Aidun Cian the younger

	02-12-2003 00:40									#7
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After the bombardment, attack with both Knights and the MI.

ND's GA is over. GoW's is almost done.

	02-12-2003 02:29									#8
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They have musketmen in that stack... I'd rather they attacked us unless the odds of attacking musketmen on open terrain are REALLY going to be better than letting them attack us behind walls.

	02-12-2003 03:39									#9
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We'll see what happens. But I have a feeling that if this battle is over and if GoW keeps their promise, this won't go on for long. I think ND is trying to make a final hit, but it might turn out to be a Pyrhic victory for them, if they would win, which I doubt somewhat.

EDIT: Arnelos told me that I had to use the adjective of Pyrhus: Pyrhic.

Aidun

Last edited by Aidun on 02-12-2003 at 03:56

	02-12-2003 05:23									#10
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Note: I only bombarded them this turn, did not attack them. After fully analyzing their forces (most were seriously damaged) they presented no immediate thread to Pamplona.

We'll continue to bombard them and if we face some severely weakened muskets we'll THEN have our knight and MI attack.

--Togas

	02-12-2003 13:06									#11
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We had a 73.3% chance of winning against their Musket with our Elite Knight. The Knight also enjoys a very high retreat rate of 66% in case of a non-victory. So, the chances that our Knight would have died in the attack was pretty slim.

	03-12-2003 06:23									#12
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Pyrrhus and pyrrhic, you mean?

	03-12-2003 08:37									#13
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree We had a 73.3% chance of winning against their Musket with our Elite Knight. The Knight also enjoys a very high retreat rate of 66% in case of a non-victory. So, the chances that our Knight would have died in the attack was pretty slim.

Damn...

If there's any targets there next turn, the knight will take them out if that is indeed the case.

--Togas

	03-12-2003 17:34									#14
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Isn't there one of you guys living at the other side of the ocean to help Togas with this kind of things at times when the save is played? I would if there wouldn't be that time difference of 9 hours with Togas. Please, this was the big chance to hurt ND a bit, we should have done so with such percentages.

Let's make sure there are at least two members online in the channel when the save is played, or we'll lose the war because of disorganization. That would be a shame.

Aidun

	04-12-2003 14:14									#15
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Could I have a save please ?

Aidun, your analysis seems very good, but I would have a save in order to see the situation myself !

I think there are some good news in this thread !

	04-12-2003 22:32									#16
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In chat with MZ last night he confirmed that those forces are what's left after they killed a LARGE stack of GS knights. Somewhere between 15-20 units. Those knights were on the mountain where the solo rider sits.

They just had the biggest battle of the game and won. GS has pretty much been routed. ND and GoW are weakened but clearly not weak neough for us to do anything about it.

--Togas

	04-12-2003 22:43									#17
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from Cort Haus

quote: Hi Togas, Here are our screenshots for 370AD. http://apolyton.net/upload/files/Co...zx370_spain.jpg http://apolyton.net/upload/files/Co...x370_nstorm.jpg As you probably know, we lost 19 knights on Pamp-1, and we've no idea of enemy casualties - such is the nature of PBEM. I didn't see any screenies from RP in our forum (perhaps someone in GS has them in their mailbox, but wasn't around to post them), and we have no idea of who hit us, from where, and where they went to. Do you think that this epic battle will help Pamplona hold out for longer? We don't know how many defenders you have there, but hopefully our sacrifice will help your defence. We have Invention next turn, then we'll see how long we have to wait until Gunpowder. Now that the intended GoW deal is off, we can return Toledo and Barcelona to your control next turn, but we are two turns away from completing a Pikeman in New Madrid. Should events turn out that Miller Town becomes the interim capital-in-exile of Spain, the two cities on the west coast of North Stormia could also be offered to you. If GS carry on fighting for much longer, we will surely lose the game - due to the powers arrayed against us. However, despite our losses, we intend to hold out a little longer - at least until we can see where the saltpeter is, whilst trying to discuss possible peace terms with our adversaries. We'd like to hear the thoughts of your team regarding the future. Much as we want to defend Spain, we recognise that only when RP and GS are off Bob, or perhaps reduced to a rump, will the Bobian powers either turn on Lego, or on themselves. When that happens, RP and GS could get a chance to deal themselves back into the game. We hope to hear from you soon. Regards, CH GS

I have fixed the links in this PM

--Togas

	05-12-2003 02:42									#18
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We need to talk to GS about starting negotiations with ND. I know, because it's ND, that any negotiations are a long shot. That said, we've already tried both Legoland and GoW with no success and selling ND the line that they are the rusty third wheel of the alliance may do more damage.

At the very least, we can encourage them to think along those lines. No alliance survives victory and the fact that we know that at least Legoland and ND both still want to win the game means that GS and RP down on their luck automatically pits ND and Legoland against one another.

It's worth starting.

	05-12-2003 06:37									#19
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quote: Originally posted by Togas In chat with MZ last night he confirmed that those forces are what's left after they killed a LARGE stack of GS knights. Somewhere between 15-20 units. Those knights were on the mountain where the solo rider sits. They just had the biggest battle of the game and won. GS has pretty much been routed. ND and GoW are weakened but clearly not weak neough for us to do anything about it. --Togas

Those GS Knights were not on the mountain anymore...I think GS had moved them to the forest tile South of Pamplona in an attept to withdraw them. At least I'm pretty sure that is where they were. GS told us they were executing an evacution plan for their Knights...that plan did not work out so well. The evidence for this is that the forrest tile was no longer being worked by Pamplona when we opened the save and there were no units there, so, GoW or ND HAD to have moved units to that spot, then moved them back before our turn.

	05-12-2003 09:17									#20
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I was talking to MZ in chat and he said that the knights they killed were on forest... claimed that the only reason they attacked was that they'd been waiting on those knights to get OFF the mountain for a number of turns.

	05-12-2003 21:31									#21
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Do I understand it right that the negotiations between GS and GoW have failed? At least I would consider such an attack a declaration of war.

Aidun

	06-12-2003 04:06									#22
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A state of war was already understood. There was only one turn of a cease fire as I understood it.

	06-12-2003 04:22									#23
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Oh, only one turn, well, it proves that you can't trust the GoWians. This remembers me of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. I would post a post about this in the public forum, were it not that I rather leave these things up to Arnelos, as he seems to determine our attitude to the other teams.

Aidun

	06-12-2003 04:29									#24
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I'll admit that I haven't followed the GS-GoW negotiations extremely closely, by my impression of the situation was that the cease-fire only existed because negotiations were ongoing.

When the negotiations failed, that ended the cease-fire. Then, when GS moved their stack of knights onto forest rather than mountain, GoW pounced.

I don't think any of ND, Lego, or Vox is going to have a problem with GoW's behavior in this situation and we have little to gain by making a big deal of it... sorta a "the boy who cried wolf" situation.

Now, if the cease-fire was still ACTIVE when GoW attacked, we might talk about that with GS in terms of making a point about it (at least to Lego, who seems to actually care about that... not that I think it would actually help).

	06-12-2003 04:41									#25
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I still think that this negotiation was entirely fake:

We have promised GoW anything they desired, sold three of our cities to GS to show our good intentions for this agreement, but suddenly GoW thinks it a bad deal and the turn after it they attack a GS stack en masse.

Nobody can make me believe that was a coincidence.

Aidun

	07-12-2003 08:12									#26
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Bloody hell...
Ah well, at least we get to keep Pamplona for some more time!