17-12-2003 01:44									#1
	Saddam Hussein arrested part II Full PM-box? Change here!

Pick it up where you left off.

	17-12-2003 01:46									#2
	Re: Saddam Hussein arrested part II Increase Your PM Length

quote: Originally posted by Ming Pick it up where you left off.

I'm telling you, the lefties got it all wrong.

	17-12-2003 01:47									#3
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.

	17-12-2003 01:49									#4
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from the Guardian, via Andy Sullivan (my favorite Thatcherite gay new American)

'In the same northern Iraqi town yesterday, about 700 people rallied, chanting: "Saddam is in our hearts, Saddam is in our blood." US soldiers and Iraqi policemen shouted back: "Saddam is in our jail."'

	17-12-2003 01:50									#5
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zed? zed's dead, babe.

same thing with saddam, but not as easy to rhyme.

	17-12-2003 01:53									#6
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quote: So?

There was no corollary. That was simply the point I was making to Kramerman. And I'm not saying that's a bad thing. I don't want Iraq to be a US client state.

quote: No worse than Afghanistan, say.

That remains to be seen.

	17-12-2003 02:41									#7
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Thye say in Fallujah a police station was occupied, the cops driven out and files burned.

The capture of Saddam does nothing to alleviate the two basic problems- the shift in power form the suni Arabs to the Shia Arabs, a first in 80 years of Iraq, and how to handle the position of Islam to the state.

	17-12-2003 02:44									#8
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Thye say in Fallujah a police station was occupied, the cops driven out and files burned. The capture of Saddam does nothing to alleviate the two basic problems- the shift in power form the suni Arabs to the Shia Arabs, a first in 80 years of Iraq, and how to handle the position of Islam to the state.

it was necessary but not sufficient to rebuilding Iraq.

The two things you mention are basically things that Iraqis must work out together - capturing Saddam gives them more "space" in which to do it, by reducing the disincentives, real or imagined, that hinder participation in the political process.

	17-12-2003 02:47									#9
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I don't see how it does anything to further either issue. Certainly it was important to put the past behind, but the rule of Sunni over Shia has been true since 1920-way before Saddam, and the issue of islams relation to temporal power is one that is present in the whole islamic world.

	17-12-2003 02:52									#10
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quote: Originally posted by lord of the mark from the Guardian, via Andy Sullivan (my favorite Thatcherite gay new American) 'In the same northern Iraqi town yesterday, about 700 people rallied, chanting: "Saddam is in our hearts, Saddam is in our blood." US soldiers and Iraqi policemen shouted back: "Saddam is in our jail."'

	17-12-2003 02:52									#11
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Bush Says Saddam Deserves to Be Executed
1 hour, 28 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) deserves the "ultimate penalty" but it will be up to the people of Iraq (news - web sites) to decide whether he should be executed, President Bush (news - web sites) said Tuesday.

The president also said that Iraqis are "capable of conducting the trial themselves."

Bush made his comments in an interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer.

The president, at a news conference on Monday, had said he had his own opinions about Saddam's fate but he declined to spell them out. He elaborated in the interview Tuesday, and the network released a partial transcript of his remarks.

"I think he ought to receive the ultimate penalty ... for what he has done to his people," the president said. "I mean, he is a torturer, a murderer, they had rape rooms. This is a disgusting tyrant who deserves justice, the ultimate justice. But that will be decided not by the president of the United States but by the citizens of Iraq in one form or another."

	17-12-2003 02:56									#12
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I don't see how it does anything to further either issue. Certainly it was important to put the past behind, but the rule of Sunni over Shia has been true since 1920-way before Saddam, and the issue of islams relation to temporal power is one that is present in the whole islamic world.

Perhaps youd find the following of interests


US seeks compromise on Iraqi elections

Im not sure these ARE the two basic problems, as opposed to establishing security and rebuilding the economy. The Sunni arabs are 20% of the population - if they cant reconcile themselves to that fact, that is ultimately their problem. Assuming a federal constitution that allows them control of some governates, and enough division within the Shia so that transethnic coalitions are necessary (the former a certainty, the latter likely) the reasonable among the Sunni, especially the educated professionals in Baghdad will be reconciled. A considerable number in Tikrit and Fallujah will likely never be reconciled - they will have to be put down by force - there are Afrikaaners who are not reconciled to majority rule in South Africa - doesnt matter much. Assuming that Sunni arab neighbors dont meddle, which the coalition can deal with in a number of ways.

Islam - I think they are headed towards a compromise on that - I dont think Sistani expects any formal role for himself or other clerics in the constitution whether it formally recognizes Islam or not. He does expect an informal influence over the Shia population - but thats inevitable, and should wane over time as Iraqis gain political maturity.

	17-12-2003 03:03									#13
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I forgot to add the Kurdish nationalists who would rather have a Kurdistan than an Iraq, but that is another issue. If this 20% were spread out, maybe it would be a problem, but they are concentrated, specially around the centers of power. That does make a 20% of the pop with few loyalties to the state a danger to stability.

Rebuilding the economy is probalby the simplest thing.

The issue is not what the coolition will do. The coolition must leave at some point. The US controlled the Phillipinnes for 40 years, then we gave them independence in 1946..and then the coutnry became a military dictatorship and we are back fighting muslim rebels.

Latin America shows us new democracy is unstable-having 10% of the pop against it is bad news.

	17-12-2003 03:14									#14
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quote: US seeks compromise on Iraqi elections

Already? I figured it'd take Bremer another month or so till he'd decide he'd have to give into Sistani on one-person one-vote elections.

	17-12-2003 03:26									#15
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I forgot to add the Kurdish nationalists who would rather have a Kurdistan than an Iraq, but that is another issue. If this 20% were spread out, maybe it would be a problem, but they are concentrated, specially around the centers of power. That does make a 20% of the pop with few loyalties to the state a danger to stability. Rebuilding the economy is probalby the simplest thing. The issue is not what the coolition will do. The coolition must leave at some point. The US controlled the Phillipinnes for 40 years, then we gave them independence in 1946..and then the coutnry became a military dictatorship and we are back fighting muslim rebels. Latin America shows us new democracy is unstable-having 10% of the pop against it is bad news.

hmm - 40 years. Well i hope im around in 40 years to see if youre right about Iraq - i fear youve just made the assertion "this will all end badly" effectively unfalsifiable - can we keep our prognosis to say the next 10 years?

In any case i wonder what the literacy rates, per cent urbanized etc were for PI in 1946? Probably far lower than Iraq in 2003.

I also dont expect the sunni arabs to keep fighting the state for 40 years - at some point, assuming the state offers them decent treatment, theyll pragmatically accept that their insurgency has failed. memories of past glories will fade. As hungarians manage to live in peace in romania, swedes in finland, and even russians in the Baltic states (where the numbers and the regional balance of power are far worse than in the case of Iraq) Oh, and Muslims in India.

Take as a case in point the different actions of Israeli Arabs and west bank arabs - the israeli arabs who have citizenship and the vote grudgingly accept the Israeli state. The west bank arabs who do not have citizenship or the vote, and know Israel can never grant it to them, are not reconcilable. Sunni arabs will have votes, citizenship and will be a tolerated minority.

	17-12-2003 03:42									#16
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Literacy rates are probalby as High in Latin Americ as in Iraq, and many of those states are coming of much lighter dictatorships that Iraq, yet their new democracies are many times shaky. iraq has immense porblems both ethnic, religious, and nationalistic, and honestly it will take decades to make Iraq a working democracy that some people sell us. I don't know if we could have picked a worst place to experiement for democracy than it. Syria and Egypt would have been far better places to try first.

	17-12-2003 03:43									#17
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quote: Originally posted by SlowwHand Bush Says Saddam Deserves to Be Executed 1 hour, 28 minutes ago WASHINGTON - Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) deserves the "ultimate penalty" but it will be up to the people of Iraq (news - web sites) to decide whether he should be executed, President Bush (news - web sites) said Tuesday. The president also said that Iraqis are "capable of conducting the trial themselves." Bush made his comments in an interview with ABC News' Diane Sawyer. The president, at a news conference on Monday, had said he had his own opinions about Saddam's fate but he declined to spell them out. He elaborated in the interview Tuesday, and the network released a partial transcript of his remarks. "I think he ought to receive the ultimate penalty ... for what he has done to his people," the president said. "I mean, he is a torturer, a murderer, they had rape rooms. This is a disgusting tyrant who deserves justice, the ultimate justice. But that will be decided not by the president of the United States but by the citizens of Iraq in one form or another."

Great, Bush continues to prove that he and Saddaam are cut from the same cloth.

	17-12-2003 03:54									#18
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I don't see how it does anything to further either issue. Certainly it was important to put the past behind, but the rule of Sunni over Shia has been true since 1920-way before Saddam, . . .

Actually, it's been true since the mid-16th Century, when the Ottomans conquered the region from the Persians.

	17-12-2003 04:27									#19
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quote: Originally posted by monkspider Great, Bush continues to prove that he and Saddaam are cut from the same cloth.

	17-12-2003 04:36									#20
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According to Swedish news, the soldier who found Saddam was just about to throw a grenade down the spider hole to clear it once and for all. The same news said that was the common procedure for such situations. Is that really a wise tactic?

I can understand that it could be dangerous and time consuming to send a guy down the hole to have a look what's in there, and special surveillance equipment (like a camera on a pole) is not widely available. Still, it seems like another one of those "shoot first and ask the questions later" tactics that could eventually cost US the political defeat.

- Hey, we're 'Murcans. We examine things by blowing 'em up...

There's a long list of reasons why a HE grenade down a hole like that could be a big mistake:

1) A bunch of kids could be hiding there. If I was a kid, and enemy soldiers came to my house, kicked in the door, shouted angry commands in an unknown language and harrassed my parents, it would make perfect sense to run away and hide in a secret little cave.

2) The bad guys could have hidden a ton of high explosives down there. BOOOOMMMM!

3) Saddam could be hiding there. If the soldiers even bother to go down the hole and look after the explosion (which I doubt) all they have is a dead unknown person, quite likely messed up beyond recognition. Then he could be dead and no one would know. The search would go on forever.

4) Destroying private property for no obvious reason will not increase the support from the people in Iraq.

	17-12-2003 04:41									#21
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quote: Originally posted by GePap I don't see how it does anything to further either issue. Certainly it was important to put the past behind, but the rule of Sunni over Shia has been true since 1920-way before Saddam, and the issue of islams relation to temporal power is one that is present in the whole islamic world.

Under the Ottomans the Sunnis ran everything as well, so it's a lot longer than 80 years.

	17-12-2003 05:09									#22
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No they didn't. They couldn't because there was no Iraq, just three separate provinces.

	17-12-2003 05:12									#23
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This appeared this morning in El Mercurio newspaper... sorry for the threadjack but I think is funny

	17-12-2003 05:34									#24
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quote: Originally posted by GePap Literacy rates are probalby as High in Latin Americ as in Iraq,

From the US Army Country Study of Iraq published in Jan. 2002 I found that the over all literacy rate in Iraq is 58% with 52% of the population having attended grade school, 12% having attended high school, and 2% having attended college.

There is no question that Iraq has educational, demographic, ethnic, and religious problems which will complicate things. Like Gepap I don't think things will change dramatically with in the next decade but I do think we will see a slow steady decrease in the number of attacks as the economy improves and as the influence of Saddam's loyalists slowly fades.

The big wild card is possible ethnic/religious violence. The Kurds would like their own country but most of them seem resigned to remaining part of Iraq just as the Kurds in Turkey, Iran, and Syria are resigned to remaining part of those countries. The single biggest question is will the educated & relatively well off Sunni Arab minority accept their lesser role behind the poorly educated & economically impoverished Shi'a Arab majority?

	17-12-2003 05:52									#25
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quote: Originally posted by Chilean President This appeared this morning in El Mercurio newspaper... sorry for the threadjack but I think is funny

not remotely as funny as your avatar.

	17-12-2003 05:54									#26
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara Actually, it's been true since the mid-16th Century, when the Ottomans conquered the region from the Persians.

The Ottomans were Sunni and there are numerous Shi'a shrines located in southern Iraq (mostly in Najif, Karbala, and Samarra) but until the 19th century most of the population was Sunni Arab. Prior to that time majority of the population was nomadic yet starting in 1813 the Ottoman government began a process to settle the nomads into towns and cities. The result was that the nomads settled and around the small market towns/shrine cities in southern Iraq and converted to the Shi'ism practiced there. The other great event motivating this was the Ottoman campaign to complete infastructure improvements throughout the empire. The Ottomans built roads for their army (but which helped commerce) and constructed canals which provided the water the shrine towns needed to grow to shrine cities as well as to irrigate the crops needed to power an agricultural economy.

	17-12-2003 05:58									#27
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quote: Originally posted by skywalker

Why roll your eyes? Murderers are murderers are murderers, no?

	17-12-2003 06:15									#28
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quote: Originally posted by monkspider Why roll your eyes? Murderers are murderers are murderers, no?

Monkspider:
Even if you consider all victims of his two wars being directly Bush's fault, he still has massacred much less than Saddam.
And Bush isn't precisely using torture systematically (I don't call the torture of a fey people in Gitmo "systematical"), nor does he or his heirs rape on a whim.

	17-12-2003 06:21									#29
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So here's the real test of the WMD accusations. If Saddam had them, he would now have the best bargaining chip with the Bushistas:

"Ensure I'm not executed, whisk me away to a U.S. prison a la Noriega, and I'll tell you all about where they are/where we sent them/where we dumped them/etc."

This info is all Bush would need to seal his reelection so tightly that even Jesus, were he to show up and run as a Democrat, could not unseat him. Saddam has no reason to keep denying the accusations, if true--he's already in line for a old-fashioned head-loppin'.

Or, it could be Saddam has no such information, because the WMDs weren't there.

	17-12-2003 07:03									#30
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quote: Originally posted by Boshko No they didn't. They couldn't because there was no Iraq, just three separate provinces.

Don't be a smartass Boshko. In those three provinces the administration was largely left up to the Sunnis: specifically the Sunni Arabs, since as Oerdin mentioned, the Ottomans were Sunni as well, but not Arab.