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markusf
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Summary
Washington has threatened to halt aid for nuclear disarmament in Ukraine. The government of President Leonid Kuchma reportedly continues to ship nuclear capable bombers - including the supersonic Tu-160 Blackjack - to Russia, while accepting Washington's money. The Clinton administration will find it hard to bring sufficient pressure to bear on Kiev.
Analysis
The United States will stop financing Ukraine's nuclear dismantling if Kiev trades any more strategic bombers to Russia, Steven Pifer, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine said on Aug. 7, according to the Interfax news agency.
Ukraine, however, stands to make much more money by continuing to give the bombers to Russia. Although Washington does intend to withhold the funds, it will not likely do anything more. By calling Washington's bluff and ignoring its warning, Ukraine may stress relations with its Western sponsor. But Washington is unlikely to get its way.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine inherited the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world. It included 25 Tu-95 Bear and 19 Tu-160 Blackjack heavy bombers. The Bear is an aging intercontinental bomber with a range of about 13,000 kilometers; the Blackjack is a supersonic multi-mission bomber, similar to the U.S. B-1 bomber, capable of carrying cruise missiles, short-range guided missiles, as well as nuclear and conventional gravity bombs. Under the 1991 Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, Ukraine is obligated to physically destroy 44 Soviet-era bombers by the first quarter of 2002.
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Instead, Ukraine last year traded 11 bombers - eight Tu-160s and three Tu-95s - and almost 700 cruise missiles to Russia in exchange for $285 million worth of debt forgiveness. Ukraine owes Russia for natural gas shipments. In July, Ukraine offered Russia another 10 bombers in exchange for more debt relief; Russia has not yet formally responded. Pifer pointed out that Washington pays for the decommissioning of the aircraft, because they were built specifically to target the United States with nuclear weapons, reported Interfax.
Although the United States cannot prevent Ukraine from giving the planes to Russia, it can cease payments meant to cover the cost of the planes' destruction. The United States has promised approximately $500 million for the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program to be carried out in Ukraine. Of that, $13 million is allocated for heavy bomber elimination, and of that $6 million has already been spent.
But from the Ukrainian standpoint, working with Washington doesn't make sense. Financially, forfeiting $7 million from the United States in order to wipe out hundreds of millions of dollars worth of debt to Russia is a bargain. But is it politically affordable?
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For more on Ukraine, see: http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/countries/Ukraine/default.htm
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Ukraine is the third largest recipient of U.S. financial aid, behind Israel and Egypt; U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has said that Ukraine is one of Washington's top four international priorities. Since independence in 1991, the United States has given the country almost $2 billion. In March, Ukraine was promised $170 million for this year; while in Kiev in June U.S. President Bill Clinton pledged another $80 million for the safe closure of Chernobyl.
In return, Ukraine - which is geographically strategic and challenged with diplomatically juggling Washington and Moscow - has increased its military and political cooperation with the United States, often at the risk of Russian reprisal. It is a member of NATO's Partnership for Peace program, and this May the country promised to bring its military into line with NATO standards by 2005, reported Agence France Presse.
Kiev and Washington have been, however, unreliable allies. Ukraine has witnessed Washington's hesitation to protect some of its other allies in the region, such as Georgia and Azerbaijan. The Kuchma government will not count on the United States to protect it from Russia, for example.
Ukraine will not bow to the tune of a mere $7 million. Unless the United States is willing to withdraw additional aid -not specifically tied to nuclear disarmament - Ukraine will likely keep right on calling Washington's bluff - and shipping nuclear-capable bombers to Russia.
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12-08-2000 03:32
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