05-01-2004 14:50									#31
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United Kingdom splitting up? I doubt it.

N Ireland joining the Republic - possible but it will take a long time for old fears and hatreds to die down. The present peace deal will probably stick but why should the Republic saddle themselves with the North and all those awkward "loyalists" (just what are they loyal to anyway?).

Wales - no chance. After several hundred years of being shafted by the English they are too used to it. The Welsh Assembly is struggling to appear to do anything meaningful. The population consists of lunatics in N Wales who want all the money spent on promoting a language no-one else can be bothered to speak and everywhere else ex-pat English who want to live in a "rural idyll" but don't want the real Welsh allowed anywhere near any power.

Scotland - maybe but not very likely. If the EU continues to centralise national power they will benefit from relatively stronger power as a region. The oil isn't going to last much longer and when that's gone they will be relying on either Westminster or Brussels to pay for most things anyway.

	05-01-2004 14:59									#32
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quote: Originally posted by notyoueither I'm surprised no one thinks Canada will split. True, demographics may be favouring Quebec staying (I think) but a really charismatic pied piper could come along.

I'm watching that myself.

I personally think that there are others more likely, however.

10 years ago was a different story...

	05-01-2004 15:00									#33
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The Jocks are quite happy with the current arrangement I think, its more the English who may get pissed off. Foundation hospitals was only passed because of Scottish labour MP's voting for it. English Mp's are allowed no such vote on Scottish health matters.

	05-01-2004 15:02									#34
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quote: Originally posted by donegeal I agree with NYE on the Quebec deal. Maybe not this year, but I think it will probably happen

a) Reread what he wrote. He doesn't actually think it will happen. He's just surprised nobody had mentioned it.

b) The two referenda were 15 years apart, and the second one was 8.5 years ago

c) With a large Liberal majority government elected 6 months ago, no: it will not happen this year nor any time within the next 4 years, given that the government has to decide to put issues on a referendum...

	05-01-2004 15:40									#35
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India will spilt up into smaller States. The current India government is currently fighting seperate moverment in over half of it States and the other half of it state resent New Delt missrule very enought.

	05-01-2004 15:43									#36
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Somalia: The country lacks a government since over ten years. There's one region, Somaliland, that has broken of as a independent republic and another region, Puntland, that's self-governing even if it, af far as I know, doesn't aim for independence.

Former Soviet union: There's a bunch of different possibilities for spits and unifications here. Take the situation in caucasus for example. Georgia has two areas that's not in line with the central govt, abkhazia and South Osstesia. There's the situation between Armenia and Azerbadjan over the Nagorno-Karabash, and then there's the russian regions like cheshnia and others where some people aim for independence.

	05-01-2004 15:59									#37
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quote: the biggest city north ways and well the bottom of the South Island is all 1 shield towns.

With that sort of talk add NZ to list ( bloody north islanders think they own the whole country, Hope they remember where most their electricty comes from....)

	05-01-2004 16:08									#38
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Finland. Any country that sanctions public urination on other citizens cannot last.

	05-01-2004 16:09									#39
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quote: Originally posted by rendelnep With that sort of talk add NZ to list ( bloody north islanders think they own the whole country, Hope they remember where most their electricty comes from....)

We also remember where most of our yokels and perverts come from.

	05-01-2004 17:36									#40
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- The Golan Heights will merge with Israel "Proper".
- Lebanon will split from Syria.
- Iraq will split into Kurdistan and Arabic Mesopotamia.
- EU will become a more developed Western EU with some custom treaties with most other european countries.

	05-01-2004 17:39									#41
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quote: a) Reread what he wrote. He doesn't actually think it will happen. He's just surprised nobody had mentioned it

Okaaay... I MOSTLY with NYE regarding Quebec.

quote: b) The two referenda were 15 years apart, and the second one was 8.5 years ago

Damn the years fly by quickly. It seems like the last one was just a couple of years ago...

quote: c) With a large Liberal majority government elected 6 months ago, no: it will not happen this year nor any time within the next 4 years, given that the government has to decide to put issues on a referendum...

Hmmmm.... good. I like Canada just the way it is.

	05-01-2004 18:15									#42
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The Tamils seem well on their way to acieving an autonomous state.

Turkey's aspiratiuons to join the EU and events in Iraq seem to create conditions more favourable to the emergence of a Kurdistan than have existed before.

Tribalism continues to undermine stability in virtually all African and arab countries.

I wonder if there are any africans or arabs who look at the EU experiment and think that something similar could be attempted in africa and/or in the middle east?

	05-01-2004 18:17									#43
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I hear rumours that the Gulf States want to get a bit more cozier a la the EU, such as a common Gulf currency and stuff.

But rumours are just that.

	05-01-2004 18:46									#44
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The one european country where a split has seemed possible in the past but no-one has mentioned is Italy. Does the Lombard League have any influence these days? Is the north still interested in cutting the south adrift?

	05-01-2004 19:30									#45
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quote: Originally posted by Tripledoc I have never understood why the capital is placed on the Eastern Seaboard. It should be in the middle. Or there should be four.

It was in the middle, it just got larger. Why would we want four capitals? We are one nation, unlike the EU. Yes, our individual states are larger than most other individual nations but we are one United Nation.

We have enough bureucracy with one capital, with four everyone would be employed by the government.

And here's hoping Quebec does go independent. I don't think they're that stupid though. America's been rooting for that since it first came up. Woo Hoo! We have a French speaking target ON OUR BORDER! We can invade, burn, and pillage without have to ship our troops across an ocean!

	05-01-2004 19:33									#46
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quote: Originally posted by monkspider United States

Now THERE'S a fantastical idea if I ever saw one.

	05-01-2004 19:41									#47
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Perhaps the Easter Island would like to become independent in the next decades... we'll have to squash the rebels

	05-01-2004 19:59									#48
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By far the most plausible suggestion so far for "next union/split" is northern and southern Cyprus- there seems to be at least even odds on a union being achieved by the time they enter the EU in May.

	05-01-2004 20:26									#49
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quote: Originally posted by MrFun Now THERE'S a fantastical idea if I ever saw one.

All Empires crumble...

however, I don't see it happening any time soon... most likely, we'll fall into another depression. This age of corporate dominance and excessive wealth will soon give way to more egaltarian economic policies. Not since the 1920's has wealth been so concentrated at the top. And since laisze faire policies never work, there will be some kind of reckoning. Remember what happened after the 20's? I just hope it isn't as bad.

There are checks in place to prevent that kind of thing, but look for the free-marketeers to deregulate that stuff. I suspect the FDIC will become yet another underfunded and unenforcing government protection.

	05-01-2004 21:02									#50
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quote: Originally posted by CerberusIV N Ireland joining the Republic - possible but it will take a long time for old fears and hatreds to die down. The present peace deal will probably stick but why should the Republic saddle themselves with the North and all those awkward "loyalists" (just what are they loyal to anyway?).

Yeah there's no chance of Ireland uniting in our lifetime, it's possible but it'll take a long time for the culture of hate to die out. Those loyal to the crown aren't going to disapear and aren't going to submit to what they're been dying to prevent for so long.
The only way Ireland will unite will be as a part of a united europe, especially with the Republic booming due to the single currency as it is.
Which is actually a pretty good solution to the troubles, the republicans getting a united Ireland not ruled by the crown and the loyalists not loosing out either.

	05-01-2004 21:13									#51
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quote: Those loyal to the crown

sigh... people still hanging on to the absurd idea of monarchy and divine right?

	05-01-2004 21:15									#52
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quote: Originally posted by OPD Yeah there's no chance of Ireland uniting in our lifetime, it's possible but it'll take a long time for the culture of hate to die out. Those loyal to the crown aren't going to disapear and aren't going to submit to what they're been dying to prevent for so long. The only way Ireland will unite will be as a part of a united europe, especially with the Republic booming due to the single currency as it is. Which is actually a pretty good solution to the troubles, the republicans getting a united Ireland not ruled by the crown and the loyalists not loosing out either.

Isnt the argument for Ireland uniting soon based on demographics - IE current situtation Protestants want a strong parliament at Stormont, with no authority from Dublin, while Catholics want some authority from Dublim to offset Protestant majority in Stormont. Once the Catholics have a majority in Stormont, what do the Protestants do, press for centralized rule from London? And will London feel obligated to bail out the minority in NI against the majority (versus current situation) Anyone have anything on demographic trends in Northern Ireland?

	05-01-2004 21:26									#53
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Split:
Somalia (it's pretty much split already)
Chechnya from Russia but not anytime soon

Unite:
N and S Cyprus
Belarus and Russia

	05-01-2004 22:14									#54
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Loyal to the crown is just an expression of what it means to be loyalist, loyal to British rule would probably be a better way of putting it. They don't really believe in divine right etc... A even better way of putting it would be "those that don't want the catholics to get what they want..."

Depite demographics NI is not going to be a part of the Republic anytime soon. Even if there was to be a catholic majority in NI rule they'd know better than to try for any sort of unification as it would only mean a return to the troubles. The millitant loyalists aren't going to disapear for a long time. Perhaps far in the future when alot of people are dead and buried and differences have faded.. but not in our lifetime, it's just not going to happen. Both being part of a united Europe is far more likely to happen before that.

	05-01-2004 22:15									#55
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You have forgot about a country who is in a real danger of spliting. In fact one of its two main partys is de-facto splited in several smaller ones. Depending on the next March's elections results, Spain could blow up.

	05-01-2004 22:17									#56
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quote: The one european country where a split has seemed possible in the past but no-one has mentioned is Italy. Does the Lombard League have any influence these days? Is the north still interested in cutting the south adrift?

Some personal experience, from ~7 years ago: I stayed briefly with a Northern Italian (N. of Milan) family and listened to them ***** about the South, and it is my impression that it's all bark and no bite. They complain about the South kinda like we Yankees piss and moan about Texas (or whichever former reb state is acting up) . Limited experience, 7 yrs old. So obviously not very authoritative. Take from it what you will.

-Arrian

	05-01-2004 22:19									#57
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quote: Originally posted by CerberusIV The one european country where a split has seemed possible in the past but no-one has mentioned is Italy. Does the Lombard League have any influence these days? Is the north still interested in cutting the south adrift?

I agree. In fact independentist nationalisms are raging among Europe.

	05-01-2004 23:36									#58
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Canada as previously mentioned will probably split.
Alberta will probably go for independence, don't know whether the other provinces will try to join the US.

Taiwan could either rejoin the mainland or keep independence, it will most likely rejoin the mainland once the communists fall.

California will probably try to join mexico at some point, the other border states may as well. this will be particularly violent.

an NK,SK reunion will happen either with US troops pulling out of SK and an NK takeover,or the fall of the communists in NK(wait that covers all possibilities...).

the EU will split unless *SOME* countries get their act together.

Zimbabwae will collapse,and in an aside, Zambia got a lot of the farmers, and now they don't have food shortages. Don't know if any country is going to want to touch the mess Zimbabwae is in, but someone might grab it(British?).

Eventually a Kurdistan will be formed, and unless the "resistance" stops in sunni Iraq there will be a prosperous south, a prosperous north, and a dirt poor center.

	05-01-2004 23:37									#59
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quote: Originally posted by rendelnep With that sort of talk add NZ to list ( bloody north islanders think they own the whole country, Hope they remember where most their electricty comes from....)

Huntly?

	06-01-2004 00:27									#60
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I don't think that there will be many break-ups in developed Western countries, if any. There have been none in the last 50 years, after all.

Scotland is a maybe, but it probably won't split. The Nats got a severe drubbing at the last Scottish election, and they seem to have run out of ideas and momentum. The Greens and Reds have taken a lot of their thunder as well.

I think that Sudan will stay together, if the peace deal works out.