20-01-2004 11:46									#91
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quote: Originally posted by OzzyKP And didn't Forbes win Iowa in 2000?

Nope

	20-01-2004 11:50									#92
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Ok, I withdraw that example. BUT... Clinton got 2.8% in '92.

http://desmoinesregister.com/extras...astresults.html

	20-01-2004 11:52									#93
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According to the above link. The Iowa caucus picked the nomination winner in 7 races since 76, and didn't in 5.

So don't hold your breath.

	20-01-2004 11:53									#94
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quote: Originally posted by OzzyKP Ok, I withdraw that example. BUT... Clinton got 2.8% in '92. http://desmoinesregister.com/extras...astresults.html

Yeah, but do you think some Southern pair of white-trash titties is going to come out and say "I was **** Gephardt's Lover" and save his campaign?

	20-01-2004 11:57									#95
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quote: Originally posted by OzzyKP Ok, I withdraw that example. BUT... Clinton got 2.8% in '92. http://desmoinesregister.com/extras...astresults.html

Just to point out, the winner in that election was from Iowa, skewing the results just a bit.
I'm not suggesting that winning in Iowa predicts winning the nomination. But winning in Iowa, or doing very strong, especially in a horse race like this one was supposed to be, gives you much needed media attention plus momentum.

Right now, Kerry and Edwards have the big mo. We'll see how they use it.

	20-01-2004 19:52									#96
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quote: Still Bush I is infinitely preferable to that sag faced harpy of a wife of his.

Barbara Bush got her gray hair while she was watching and caring for one of her children that died of leukemia (sp?). Of course, I'm sure you're thrilled that the world was saved from another Bush... kill 'em while they're young, huh?

	20-01-2004 19:55									#97
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Dean was losing his lead in NH before this disaster; he looks to be in deep doo-doo now.

I think Clark made a big mistake in skipping Iowa; you can't convince that he wouldn't have made an even more-impressive Lazarus-like move than Edwards if he had campaigned in Iowa. Now he's given the other Dem war hero a big boost, not to mention the little whippersnapper. Dean might hold on to the NH lead, if only because Kerry & Edwards will cannibalize Clark in addition to Dean.

We're left with Kerry, Edwards, Clark, and Dean. I think you could make a winning ticket from any combination of those four.

	20-01-2004 20:01									#98
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See, negative campaigning is effective.

	20-01-2004 20:03									#99
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quote: Originally posted by JohnT quote: Still Bush I is infinitely preferable to that sag faced harpy of a wife of his. Barbara Bush got her gray hair while she was watching and caring for one of her children that died of leukemia (sp?).

She's still an evil woman.

	20-01-2004 20:06									#100
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara See, negative campaigning is effective.

Umm... not entirely.

Edwards wasn't negative at all in his campaign and he had the greatest and most unexpected surge because of it. Dean and Gephardt mucked themselves up with attack ads and got toasted because of it.

	20-01-2004 20:06									#101
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quote: Originally posted by chegitz guevara She's still an evil woman.

And you base that on... ?

	20-01-2004 20:07									#102
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All the Democrat nominations have fake hair, it seems.

	20-01-2004 20:11									#103
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YAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!"



Dean has truly lost his mind. Click on the link for a 13 second audio clip.

	20-01-2004 20:14									#104
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quote: Originally posted by OzzyKP Umm... not entirely. Edwards wasn't negative at all in his campaign and he had the greatest and most unexpected surge because of it. Dean and Gephardt mucked themselves up with attack ads and got toasted because of it.

It was effective in that it tarred Dean. I was amused listening to NPR this morning (and ABC) both of which were repotring that Dean and Gephart had been in some kind of grudge match, but leading up to the Caucus I heard a lot of Gephart attacking Dean, but not vice versa. (The same NPR also said this morning that students at Florida A&M were protesting Jeb, for among other reasons, mistakenly leaving Black people off the voting rolls, despite state memos showing that it was deliberate. )

Gephart brought Dean down, but killed himself doing it.

	20-01-2004 20:15									#105
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel YAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!" Dean has truly lost his mind. Click on the link for a 13 second audio clip.

Yeah, when I heard that this morning I was like, "What the hell?" It looked better on video though. Guess you had to be there.

	20-01-2004 20:15									#106
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quote: Originally posted by JohnT And you base that on... ?

Many stories I've heard.

	20-01-2004 20:16									#107
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Dean brought himself down.

	20-01-2004 20:16									#108
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So then attack ads are like suicide bombing.

	20-01-2004 20:16									#109
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"I think, oddly enough, Clark is really the big winner after Iowa. He knew he was going to take a hit there, so he skipped it, and now he has NH all to himself."

He really isn't the winner. Before he only had to take on Dean. Now in NH there could well be two more viable candidates he has to take on there.

	20-01-2004 20:18									#110
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quote: Originally posted by asleepathewheel YAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!" Dean has truly lost his mind. Click on the link for a 13 second audio clip.

Hahaha. I thought it was WWE for a second. Sounded like Stone Cold. That girlish scream at the end is hilarous. What the ****?

	20-01-2004 21:26									#111
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quote: Originally posted by GePap quote: Southerners are not entrenched in the Republican bandwagon, but they do need a democrat that will come closer to expressing the same value structure. Which is? If it is true that southerners have some "value structure" of thier own, why should any party gear it national election startegy to just one group that decides to remain separate from the rest of the country? [

1. Dems can win Florida, Arkansas, Tennesee, and maybe Lousiana. and with Edwards, possibly NC.

2. Even if they lose, it helps if they can contest southern states, diverting GOP resources from swing states. This works in reverse - a GOP candidate who can contest Michigan, New Jersey, or Calif has advantages, even if they dont win those states.

3. Southernness isnt confined to the South. There are historic cultural connections between the South and Ohio, for example. The kinds of candidates who cant win the South have great difficulty in Ohio. Ditto for mountain states like Colorado and Arizona. Even California - has anyone noted that Calif has been safe for the Dems only with Clinton and Gore on the ballot? Calif is a lot more than SF and west LA - its very much Fresno, the Central valley, and culturally conservative middle class suburbs of LA.

And of course Penn. is "Philly at one end, Pitt at the other, and Alabama in between"

Its not that the South is culturally different, so much that the upper North is culturally diffferent.

	20-01-2004 21:40									#112
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Will someone please start a CanPol thread. I've used my two threads today and I want to start a thread on how much I would like to sleep with Belinda Stronach.

	20-01-2004 21:47									#113
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quote: Originally posted by Edan Just to point out, the winner in that election was from Iowa, skewing the results just a bit. I'm not suggesting that winning in Iowa predicts winning the nomination. But winning in Iowa, or doing very strong, especially in a horse race like this one was supposed to be, gives you much needed media attention plus momentum.

Which is why Iowa rocks.

	20-01-2004 21:50									#114
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Why exactly is primary order the way it is? Why Iowa and New Hampshire instead of California and New York?

	20-01-2004 21:51									#115
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quote: Originally posted by OzzyKP So then attack ads are like suicide bombing.

yes... it's like being "undead" in Counter-Strike Warcraft 3 mod

	20-01-2004 21:53									#116
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Why exactly is primary order the way it is? Why Iowa and New Hampshire instead of California and New York?

Why not Iowa and New Hampshire?

	20-01-2004 22:05									#117
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The states aren't representative of the democratic base, among other reasons. Like they're pasty white.

	20-01-2004 22:06									#118
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Why exactly is primary order the way it is? Why Iowa and New Hampshire instead of California and New York?

Because Iowa rocks, damn you! If you can't see that, then there's something wrong with you!


Don't get in the way of Iowa's plans for world domination -- I warn you.

	20-01-2004 22:08									#119
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"Why exactly is primary order the way it is? Why Iowa and New Hampshire instead of California and New York?"

It's not enshrined anywhere. Those state just happen to schedule their delegate selection earlier.

Although, Iowa and NH aren't that bad as states to do the early primaries. Both of them are swing states that could go either way in an election, So it is a good sign if you can have some appeal in those States.

	20-01-2004 22:16									#120
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quote: Because Iowa rocks, damn you! If you can't see that, then there's something wrong with you!

Iowa is the ass of the country. It's the most boring place ever created. Y'all are even worse than Oklahomans.