20-01-2004 13:56									#1
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Well, not bets, really. This poll is meant to measure the opinions of the Apolyton people on the conflict on the other continent.

Take your pick!

edit: please indicate only what's going to happen on the Military front.

	20-01-2004 15:31									#2
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Stalemate until the end of the game (or nearly). Why? I think a long stalemate is inevitable, but a breakthrough by one or the other would also be inevitable.... that is if we didn't chip in to keep them at that stalemate.

	20-01-2004 16:33									#3
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By the time its over, it will look like a draw, but to those of us watching, GWT/CGA will be licking more wounds. With CFC/APO doing research and giving a hand every now and then, CGN will get to Gunpowder fairly quickly. The four defense Muskets with Catapults, walls, barracks and a few knighs for counter attacks will make every tile gained by GWT/CGA very costly. When CGN gets to Military Tradition, I think they will have a minor break through or two until attrition sets in on both sides.

The best thing about it is that if we can keep a good relationship with CFC (which I think will happen) we will be well on our way to a possible Space Race Victory (not in building the parts, but by having by far the most productive and comercial empire).

	21-01-2004 01:46									#4
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I think GWT will be doing fairly well, pushing ahead slowly. The big question is going to be whether GWT and CGN opt for a high-casualty chokepoint war that stalemates, but gives at least some chance for a GWT breakthrough or whether GWT will hold off (if aware of large CGN numbers on defense) and it will be a low casualty stalemate for a long time.

Ultimately, if it's a stalemate, I think CGN wins with the scientific support from Apolyton/CFC and their own UU. This is something we will need to be careful about if a stalemate means our support for CGN would help CGN then unbalance the game as much as we fear GWT can do now.

That said, the conventional wisdom before wars start typically expects a stalemate far more than ends up taking place... witness CDG/CFC-GCA, though admittedly a large part of that might have been GCA cheating.

My impression of GWT, and especially bongo, their Minister of War (who I know from the MAST team) is that he will be an especially aggressive military commander who is willing to take risks and push the envelope to break the likely stalemate that may develop.

So I think that if there is a stalemate, it will be a high casualties stalemate. The high casualties would be very good for us, but only if it remains a stalemate. If GWT is highly aggressive, as I figure they will be, there is a chance that GWT can break through with a few Ansars and wreak havoc behind CGN's lines or get lucky on the chokepoint or some similar thing.

I doubt this will be a simple low casualty standoff at the chokepoint, though I could certainly be wrong.

	21-01-2004 06:59									#5
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I'll repeat what I put in another post...

CGN will hold out due to the narrow choke they now hold. CGN will do well playing defense while countering with Knights and Longbowmen. It could be either bloody or not, depending wholly on GWT's actions, but it will still be a stale mate in my eyes either way because neither will take much away from the other. That is until CGN gets to MT. Siphi's will wreck havoc on GWT/GCA And, no, I did not forget about the GCA factor.

	21-01-2004 07:37									#6
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Why attack through the chokepoints at all? If I were GWT, I would construct a fleet (meiertopia) and drop off units next to Columbus. Sure, there's a river there, but CGA can't protect everything. If columbus fell, then they would have 3 open targets (Perris has no culture expansion, IIRC) Enough havoc there and they will have to pull troops from the chokes.

and GCA is not at war with CGN, correct, meaning that they could spy on them (not that it would show units that are outside the city gates, but....

	21-01-2004 07:39									#7
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also, if you captured el amarna, then the whole northern coast of CGN is open to one turn galley transit.

	21-01-2004 08:48									#8
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Yes, I think GWT will be considering bold and aggressive options as well. An amphibious landing should not be ruled out.

	21-01-2004 20:16									#9
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The team seems to be pretty divided on this subject...

	21-01-2004 20:29									#10
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what do you expect? Its pure speculation at this point. Who knows, maybe nothing happens and CGN goes offensive with Sipahi.

	21-01-2004 22:37									#11
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quote: Originally posted by Arnelos Yes, I think GWT will be considering bold and aggressive options as well. An amphibious landing should not be ruled out.

where could they land? It would require lot of navy and ansars would need to be protected by lots of pikes since they themselves have only defense of 2... and you dont want to waste 60 shield unit acting like a 20 shield impi. When CGN knights could attack them after landing.

i dont think it should be ruled out as well, but i think its highly unlikely... especially if CGN can whip up even semi decent navy to at least do some reconaissance work.

	21-01-2004 23:10									#12
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quote: Originally posted by Zero where could they land? It would require lot of navy and ansars would need to be protected by lots of pikes since they themselves have only defense of 2... and you dont want to waste 60 shield unit acting like a 20 shield impi. When CGN knights could attack them after landing. i dont think it should be ruled out as well, but i think its highly unlikely... especially if CGN can whip up even semi decent navy to at least do some reconaissance work.

I don't think CGN has the capacity to defend both chokes and their coast adequately. GWT moves empty galleys first to discover any pickets, then the second turn can land a huge amount of forces. Yes, there will be losses, but can CGN handle 30 ansars and 10 pikes? Not to mention the fear of it being a feint with more attackers coming through the isthmus.

	22-01-2004 05:37									#13
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Didn't see an exact match, so picked German Blitz! which is somewhat closer than GWT will win with lots of effort, which seems to imply a victory before either side reaches Military Tradition.

	23-01-2004 01:52									#14
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My e-mail to miccofl of CGN at the end of Turn 153 (370 AD):

quote: E-mail sent by Arnelos Miccofl, We went from "average" to "weak" with GWT this turn and our Foreign Advisor now reports that GWT has Ansar Warriors. Considering that their iron was reconnected within the past turn or so, it's a safe bet as to what they're up to. Since I *just* finished playing our turn and we noticed those things while finishing up the turn report, I thought I'd fire off an e-mail to you just in case. Thanks for Theology this turn, btw. Our teams will definately stay in touch. - Consul Arnelos of Apolyton

miccofl's response today:

quote: E-mail from miccofl Arnelos, Thanks for the info. We went from average to weak this turn as well. I'm expecting them to come from the sea judging by their actions and the stacks we have at the front cities. We estimate that between 7-10 Horsemen were upgraded to Ansar last turn. They are in the 10th turn of their GA this turn, under normal conditions they should have been able to produce a bigger spike than that so war-weariness is affecting them. Heard from mongoose201 between turns (day before yesterday.) He had hoped to end GCA's conflict with you but with the naval action of the turn before he was forced to delay things. Hopefully our forum and irc will be back to normal here soon but if not I will find an alternative for our chat so coms can get back to normal. Thanks again for the info. miccofl Premier of Netatolia

Sounds like the war is about to start. Is there anything Apolyton can or should do to help? Input very very welcome.

	23-01-2004 01:58									#15
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CGN should be fine.

Miccofl told me that they have 20 units per border city. That's... a lot.

Also, I think this will be a stalemate until the end of the game. CGN should be able to stop GWT now, and later when CGN gets their GA and Sipahis, GWT will have a fully-functioning FP in the west and will probably be much stronger economically (discounting the GAs) by the time CGN gets MT.

	23-01-2004 08:54									#16
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This problem and our upkeep problem could solve each other if we can transport MIs to CGN...

	23-01-2004 11:47									#17
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BTW, we went weak to GWT a few turns ago.