28-01-2004 04:03									#61
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: The last northern Democrat to win Ohio was Roosevelt. Sixty four years ago. Good luck. I like how you qualify it. Why 'northern Democrat'? It would make more sense that a Southern Democrat would have a harder time winning Ohio... oh, and Clinton won Ohio both times. Carter won it in '76 as well. I wonder how jimmytrick will react when a Northern Democrat wins this elected . I also seem to remember people saying a Catholic couldn't be elected President as well.

The last northern Democrat to win Florida was Roosevelt. Sixty four years ago. Good luck.

I say "northern Democrat" to compare Kerry to Edwards. Historically, nominating northerners has always, always been catastrophic for the Democrats. This is THE real electability issue most especially now that the Republican party is even stronger in the south than historically. Plus Bush is working hard to get the Hispanic vote which, as you might notice, will be cast in the South.

It took the Great Depression to get Roosevelt elected. Folks, you may be pissed as all hell at Bush but we are several orders of magnitude short of the political unrest created in the 1930s.

	28-01-2004 04:04									#62
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui And yet he was so close to winning in the Electoral College and it would have happened with Florida being the Southern state.

Close only matters in horseshoes and tactical nuclear weapons.

jt's point regarding Democrats and the South still seems to be standing.

quote: And besides it's only been 20 years that the Republicans have controlled the South.

Exactly my point. I fail to see the logic of trying to make the blue states bluer without at lest attempting to pinch off a few red ones. There are a few Southern states that might be competitive if the Democrats put forth the effort. Gore lost TN because he didn't bother to even seriously campaign there.

	28-01-2004 04:06									#63
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The midwest is a strong area for "christian values" and fiscal conservatism. While Bush has not been very fiscally conservative (to say the least), he can still play this issue against a Mass. Senator. (The same ole "tax and spend liberal" argument) Propably the only dem that he would have a chance against with this argument. On the values issue, Bush wins against any dem candidate. Additionally, the midwest is traditionally an area that will give early political support to a rebounding economy.

	28-01-2004 04:08									#64
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quote: Originally posted by PLATO Overlooking the fact of course that Kerry stands no chance in the midwest.

Yeah, thats right. Northern democrats never win out there either.

I was trying to make a point without hurting the Yankees feelings but, what the heck.

We ain't having no stinkin Yankee presidents.

	28-01-2004 04:09									#65
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Gore lost TN because he didn't bother to even seriously campaign there.

Not true. Gore lost TN because it was pounded how he did a 180 degree turn from many positions that he had when he was elected to the Senate. The net result was that he has little credibility left in TN.

	28-01-2004 04:10									#66
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quote: Originally posted by jimmytrick We ain't having no stinkin Yankee presidents.

Damn straight.

	28-01-2004 04:11									#67
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quote: Historically, nominating northerners has always, always been catastrophic for the Democrats.

Because the sample size is big enough to show that?

What do you have, Dukakis and Mondale? Dukakis was running against a Northeasterner as well (Bush 1). Mondale was running against a Californian.

quote: that the Republican party is even stronger in the south than historically

You'd hope so, since historically the Republicans hardly ever won the South (look at the 1976 election for instance).

quote: jt's point regarding Democrats and the South still seems to be standing.

Only if you consider 20 years and 6 elections as dispositive. And you only had two Northern Democrats, both running at the wrong time.

quote: I fail to see the logic of trying to make the blue states bluer without at lest attempting to pinch off a few red ones. There are a few Southern states that might be competitive if the Democrats put forth the effort.

That wasn't the point. The point was that if Kerry keeps all the states Gore kept and just added one more (Ohio, Florida), then he wins the elections, so saying a Northern Dem can't win is utterly foolish. It'd be like saying a Republican can't win the South in January 1968.

	28-01-2004 04:12									#68
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The Dems don't win in the South because Southerners are a bunch of gun toting racist fundy hicks.

	28-01-2004 04:14									#69
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Close only matters in horseshoes and tactical nuclear weapons. jt's point regarding Democrats and the South still seems to be standing. quote: And besides it's only been 20 years that the Republicans have controlled the South. Exactly my point. I fail to see the logic of trying to make the blue states bluer without at lest attempting to pinch off a few red ones. There are a few Southern states that might be competitive if the Democrats put forth the effort. Gore lost TN because he didn't bother to even seriously campaign there.

You are dead on right. Seriously. Gore's loss is the exception that proves the rule and stemmed in large part because Gore had been in Washington so long he no longer was considered Southern by the folks back home.

I want to say another thing. History must be taken in context and generals tend to prepare to fight the last war. What happened in 2000 best be weighed against 100 years of political history or someone might as well get out the McGovern electoral map and paste it on their wall.

Besides, Edwards is the only Democrat I can vote for and I am not going to automatically vote for Georgie this time around.

	28-01-2004 04:15									#70
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon The Dems don't win in the South because Southerners are a bunch of gun toting racist fundy hicks.

We are not racist anymore!!!!!

	28-01-2004 04:18									#71
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quote: The midwest is a strong area for "christian values" and fiscal conservatism.

The midwest has been losing jobs, and places like Ohio and WV, both extremely close in 2000's election, aren't particularly smitten with this administration given the 360 on steel tariffs. And who knows what'll be the fallout if we're called on our agrisubsidies in the WTO (whatever the case, Shrub won't come out of looking any better).

	28-01-2004 04:18									#72
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quote: Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui quote: jt's point regarding Democrats and the South still seems to be standing. Only if you consider 20 years and 6 elections as dispositive.

Care to point out a modern candidate (Lincoln doesn't count!) that won the election without at least being competative (carrying at lest 2 states) in the South?

quote: And you only had two Northern Democrats, both running at the wrong time.

Who cares about Northern Democrats anyway? The relevent distinction here are Democrat or Republican since the running consensus is that the Democrats would be best served writing off the region as a whole.

	28-01-2004 04:20									#73
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quote: History must be taken in context and generals tend to prepare to fight the last war. What happened in 2000 best be weighed against 100 years of political history

Yes, you are right, generals fight the last war, and by looking back at '100 years of political history' you are fighting 3 wars beforehand. What happened in 2000 is more indicative of the 2004 election than 1988 was.

If things stay as they are (sluggish growth, Iraq bog down), a northern dem has a great chance.

	28-01-2004 04:20									#74
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Politics aren't static. The Dems no longer need the South.

	28-01-2004 05:34									#75
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The south is completely irrelevent to American politics.

	28-01-2004 05:35									#76
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that is true, they don't need the south. But if they neglect the south, they better damn well win states like mine. Nevada.

Gore would've won if he took Nevada. Of course the same could have been said about Tennessee and any other state he lost.

But my point is that the south can be neglected, but that puts even more pressure at winning sates in the mountain west, midwest, plain states etc.

A dem winning a state like Nevada ain't easy. I was out of state during the clinton years, so I'm not sure he he took my state both times. But I suspect he did. But normally we are a very conservative state. Although the demographics have changed a bit with the heavy influx of Californians. Although you also have to note that most of the Californians who fled here are more conservative, and tired of paying higher taxes.

In any case the democrats would be wise to try to at least get one southern state. And they have to win Florida imho. And of course get the usual states like California, Illonois, New York, Washington, Massachussetts, Ohio, Penssylvania. Preferribly the entire north east and middle atlantic as well.

	28-01-2004 07:09									#77
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Care to point out a modern candidate (Lincoln doesn't count!) that won the election without at least being competative (carrying at lest 2 states) in the South? Who cares about Northern Democrats anyway? The relevent distinction here are Democrat or Republican since the running consensus is that the Democrats would be best served writing off the region as a whole.

Yea, Lincoln got the 3 way democrat split, he probably doesn't count.
[edit] And this might be how a democrat will win without the south this time. Perhaps Lincoln does count when you consider that.[/edit]

	28-01-2004 08:08									#78
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Oh, something else. Didn't Kerry have prostate cancer. Won't that be a big stick to beat him with?

	28-01-2004 08:16									#79
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quote: Originally posted by monkspider The south is completely irrelevent to American politics.

Are you sure about that??

Almost the entire South in 2000 elected Dumb Bush for president.

	28-01-2004 08:16									#80
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quote: Originally posted by jimmytrick Yeah, thats right. Northern democrats never win out there either. I was trying to make a point without hurting the Yankees feelings but, what the heck. We ain't having no stinkin Yankee presidents.

	28-01-2004 08:18									#81
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I thought you were from Iowa, Mr. Fun.

Don't all the Yankees live in the North East rather than the Mid West?

	28-01-2004 08:58									#82
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quote: Originally posted by Evil Knevil Oh, something else. Didn't Kerry have prostate cancer. Won't that be a big stick to beat him with?

Nope. He had it much earlier, and I haven't heard a word since then, strongly suggesting its been treated completely successfully. If Bush tried it, it would look like he's reaching for straws, and Democrats would crack jokes about Bush choaking to death on a pretzle.

Some version of prostate cancer is extremely common in older Americans, and people who had had some version of it actually make up a statisticly significant portion of the male voting population. If Bush was not careful he could end up getting some male Republicans to vote for Kerry because they are so angry at Bush for trashing carry since he had experienced a minor case of prostate cancer. A related issue is that Bush could end up coming across as mean spirited.

	28-01-2004 09:06									#83
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Tax and spend liberal Kerry and his pal Ted Kennedy ........ you guys are going to hear this till you choke and then they will shove it down your throat along with your own bile...

Is it possible, will the Democratic party self-destruct once more?

	28-01-2004 09:39									#84
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quote: Originally posted by Mordoch Nope. He had it much earlier, and I haven't heard a word since then, strongly suggesting its been treated completely successfully. If Bush tried it, it would look like he's reaching for straws, and Democrats would crack jokes about Bush choaking to death on a pretzle. Some version of prostate cancer is extremely common in older Americans, and people who had had some version of it actually make up a statisticly significant portion of the male voting population. If Bush was not careful he could end up getting some male Republicans to vote for Kerry because they are so angry at Bush for trashing carry since he had experienced a minor case of prostate cancer. A related issue is that Bush could end up coming across as mean spirited.

Fair enough!

	28-01-2004 09:49									#85
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quote: Originally posted by Ben Kenobi I thought you were from Iowa, Mr. Fun. Don't all the Yankees live in the North East rather than the Mid West?

Iowa sent a high proportion of its male population to fight for the Union in the Civil War -- we were Yankee country, and we always will be. Just more conservative than New England, I guess.

Of course, don't forget about the butternut region of southern Illinois, but when talking about Iowa, don't insult my state by associating it in opposition to Yankeedom.

	28-01-2004 10:17									#86
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quote: In any case the democrats would be wise to try to at least get one southern state. And they have to win Florida imho. And of course get the usual states like California, Illonois, New York, Washington, Massachussetts, Ohio, Penssylvania. Preferribly the entire north east and middle atlantic as well.

Totally agree. But I think Kerry plucks Florida and also takes at least one other Southern state (right now I'm thinking Louisiana or Virginia).

quote: are to point out a modern candidate (Lincoln doesn't count!) that won the election without at least being competative (carrying at lest 2 states) in the South?

Can you show a modern candidate that won the election without at least being competitative (one state for this) in New England.. which it definetely seems Bush will lose every one.

When Bush loses NE and Kerry only wins a few Southern states, something will have to give (and before you point to relative electoral votes remember that Kerry will probably win California... what, you don't think that they suddenly turned Republican because the voted for Arnie?)

And, btw, by the South do you mean former Confederacy or something in addition?

	28-01-2004 10:22									#87
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quote: don't insult my state by associating it in opposition to Yankeedom.

Praise for a Yankee from a Canadian? Never happen.

	28-01-2004 10:30									#88
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Are you kidding me??

I thought Yankees would have more in common with the Canadians than the Rebels.

	28-01-2004 10:40									#89
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quote: Originally posted by MrFun Are you kidding me?? I thought Yankees would have more in common with the Canadians than the Rebels.

No, I think the prevailing winds are northerly and so, you know, they get their fill of the Yankee thrill.

Best line tonight was Lieberman happily declaring himself in a statistical three way tie for third place. One heck of a line and you wonder why America balks at electing members of Congress to the Presidency. Lieberman loves to run for two offices at once, I believe he would run for three if he could. He was asked if he would commit to keeping New Hamshire's place in the primary scheme safe and he said sure. What wouldn't he promise?

	28-01-2004 10:42									#90
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quote: Best line tonight was Lieberman happily declaring himself in a statistical three way tie for third place

Well he basically is. If you look at the total delegates so far (Iowa, New Hampshire, and the superdelegates - individuals with voting power), Edwards is third with 36, Clark has 30, and Lieberman 35. At the top, Dean has 113 and Kerry has 94.