24-01-2004 02:24									#1
	Is Kerry-Edwards the most electable (D) ticket? Suffering from ads?

I've been working on the Kerry campaign -- answering phones, calling voters, etc. And it seems like many of the voters in Iowa and NH want to see a Kerry win and run with Edwards. Even the Edwards supporters seem to want this!

Does anyone think Howard Dean has any chance to win the nomination? Just curious...

	24-01-2004 03:47									#2
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If it's not Sharpton-Kucinich, the Democrats aren't worth voting for.

	24-01-2004 03:51									#3
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While I think a Dean win is unlikely, I think Iowa showed that his thing can turn suddenly on a dime, and it's way too early to count him out--especially with all the cash he has on hand.

I'm not sure if Kerry-Edwards is the most electable, but it'd certainly rank pretty high.

My gut tells me that I might not like the guy as a President, but my head tells me that Karl Rove and Dubya and Cheney are scared shitless of a Clark nomination.

	24-01-2004 03:51									#4
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Kerry-Clark.

Clark comes across as a nice guy, and having two respected ex soldiers will make it really hard for the repugs to impgun their patriotism.

Dean is finished. I happen to think the media did him in, but that's just my opinion.

	24-01-2004 03:56									#5
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quote: Originally posted by Agathon Kerry-Clark. Clark comes across as a nice guy, and having two respected ex soldiers will make it really hard for the repugs to impgun their patriotism.

Nah, that's overdoing the military angle. You're better off finding two people with more different backgrounds so they have a better chance of attracting different groups of voters to the ticket. Its highly unlikely that the Republicans could make much political headway attacking Edward's patriotism on an Kerry-Edwards ticket. You'd need something alot more substancial than the vice-president simply not having military experience.

	24-01-2004 04:01									#6
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It doesn't matter who the VP is. Look at Quayle.

	24-01-2004 04:01									#7
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I think Kerry and Clark compliment each other - Kerry is a guy with plenty of experience, knows the issues and is a veteran. Clark is likeable and has youth and is from the south.

OTOH, Clark has some of the better qualities of bvoth (though he's not as likeable as edwards nor does he have the same kind of experience as Kerry.).

I think Clark/Kerry would be the best bet.

	24-01-2004 04:21									#8
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Guys, one thing is that is a pretty rare for the Veep candidate to be an opponent in primary season. Bush 1 was the most striking (especially seeing what he said about Reagan). I don't think Gore ran in 1992 as well... but I'm not sure.

If Kerry win the nomination, my bet is that his veep will be someone who didn't run against him. Perhaps Senator John Breaux or some other Southern moderate Dem.

	24-01-2004 04:29									#9
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It's uncommon, but not rare. Kennedy-Johnson, Reagan-Bush. THat's twice in twenty years off the top of my head.

	24-01-2004 04:32									#10
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Yes, twice in twenty years. I can also say it's been only twice in 43 years (since it hasn't happened since, IIRC ). And probably more when I go back from 1960.

The problem is the smoldering, lingering anger over some primary tricks... that and the fact that you got your base all mad at your rival, you'd disappoint them by appointing him as your 2nd in command, IMO.

	24-01-2004 04:34									#11
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Depends on how nice everyone plays. They've only played dirty with Dean.

	24-01-2004 04:34									#12
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That's because Dean was the front runner until Iowa. When Kerry takes that mantle, let's see how the other react.

	24-01-2004 05:23									#13
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Clark-Edwards is the most electable I can see.

Honestly, I don't think Kerry can really win the general election, no matter who his veep pick is. He's too northern.

	24-01-2004 05:36									#14
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Honestly, I don't think Kerry can really win the general election, no matter who his veep pick is. He's too northern.

Frankly, I think barring something dramatic happening, most of the South can be written off as Republican strongholds. Its also quite possible to win the election without carrying most of the South. The one real exception is Florida, but many of the retirees there are from the North, so being a Northerner is not such a liability. If you view that status as being a problem elsewhere, it may be an issue, but I'd argue its pretty much confined to the South. The fact Gore couldn't win Tenessee speaks volumes about how tough it is for a Democrat to currently take Southern States.

	24-01-2004 05:40									#15
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Agreed, but I must say there is one caveat here. Had Gore had one state--ANY state--flip to him, he would have won, even without Florida. Bush was declared winner with 271 electoral votes. So the Democrat in November simply has to carry every state Gore did, plus one. I don't know if that's such a tall order.

	24-01-2004 05:49									#16
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quote: Originally posted by Boris Godunov Agreed, but I must say there is one caveat here. Had Gore had one state--ANY state--flip to him, he would have won, even without Florida. Bush was declared winner with 271 electoral votes. So the Democrat in November simply has to carry every state Gore did, plus one. I don't know if that's such a tall order.

Couple of thoughts:

1. 2004 is not the same as 2000. Bush is now the imcumbant, amoung other changes.

2. While New Hampshire, for example, was very close, and could have gone for Gore, giving him the election, it's also worth pointing that the electoral votes of states have changed, with the south now having more votes than it did last time around. A replay of Gore's results plus NH using the '04 electoral map wouldn't give a democratic victory.

	24-01-2004 06:41									#17
	Tired of ads?

I'd have to say Clark/Edwards as well. The south won't vote for nothern boys. The north, otoh, will vote for southern boys. The West will vote democrat.

	24-01-2004 06:55									#18
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The democrats can win, They'll need a spilt republican vote and a non-split democrat vote, and they'll need to not implode(Kerry and Edwards must have handlers that are on the ball, since neither have even come close to doing that).

as for the 2000 election Gore total, getting those states alone and you are now even further behind since the red states gained on average more population(some blue ones lost pop). So they have to play on the offensive.

	24-01-2004 06:56									#19
	Tired of ads?

quote: as for the 2000 election Gore total, getting those states alone and you are now even further behind since the red states gained on average more population(some blue ones lost pop). So they have to play on the offensive.

Before some people chime in and say the popular vote doesn't matter.. this meanst that the red states have more electoral votes and the blue ones have less.

Just clearing it up .

	24-01-2004 07:43									#20
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yea, should have mentioned the ec vote change

	24-01-2004 07:44									#21
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Well I was sure someone was going to say something about the popular vote.

	24-01-2004 07:47									#22
	Tired of ads?

It's a good ticket.

	24-01-2004 07:54									#23
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Edwards definetly has that Dan Quayle quality (PS, brush up on the DOMA if you get nominated Veep )

	27-01-2004 21:31									#24
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this may be kind of nutty, but how about Kerry-McCain? They're close friends, and no Republican has been more critical of Bush. McCain despises Bush for the "illegitimate black child" rumors the Bushies spread in the 2000 SC primary. Granted, some Democrats would be pissed at the choice, but they are also the most likely to vote in any case.

	27-01-2004 21:32									#25
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random, where you been?

	27-01-2004 21:36									#26
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quote: Originally posted by Mordoch Frankly, I think barring something dramatic happening, most of the South can be written off as Republican strongholds.

Then the Democrats loose.

	27-01-2004 21:57									#27
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quote: Originally posted by DinoDoc Then the Democrats loose.

Why? winning the presidency is a matter of EC arithmatic. No state is a MUST have, sure, some are better than others, but, for example, NY even with less EC's now has more EC's than Mississippi and Alabama combined: so a dem candidate, if he is assured NYC need not spend a dime in either of those states and still be ahead in the EC. california has more than Georgia, SC and NC combined, ditto, so forth and so on...

	27-01-2004 21:59									#28
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How often do opponents in primaries team up for elections in such a manner? Can someone edumacate my dumb ass?

	27-01-2004 22:00									#29
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As for the candidates: Dean still has a good chance: the way the race is shapping up, multiple candidates will have delegates come July. If Dean won NY and California for example, he would have a large amount of delegates.

Edwards is a good second- I don;t think he is a worthy first. Also, two senators? The last senator to win was Kennedy, and before him? Senators don;t win that often due to their lack of executive experience- Kerry was a lieutenant governor, but Edwards is a total newbie. He is the pretty, charming face at most.

	27-01-2004 22:02									#30
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"McCain despises Bush for the "illegitimate black child" rumors the Bushies spread in the 2000 SC primary"

McCain has recently been in New Hampshire to Campign for President Bush.

"It doesn't matter who the VP is. Look at Quayle."

Agathon is correct. People have been making a big deal over who would get the VP nomination, but people really don't vote for Vice Presidents, so it really isn't likely to have a great impact.

I know it is very unlikely to happen, but if he doesn't get the nomination I would think Howard Dean would be a strong choice for the VP. While of course he won't win any swing voters over to the ticket, he could help in retaining the enthusiastic support of the Deaniacs and making sure they keep donating.

"with the south now having more votes than it did last time around. "

Right, if the states go the same way Bush would have 278 EC votes IIRC.