10-02-2004 12:35									#1
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The turn is in... but my mail client just crashed on me so I cant access it yet. I'll try again later.

	10-02-2004 13:35									#2
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SS offers maps(accepted)

Opens the save...
LL and tabe has founded new cities, they will share borders soon....LL has now claimed a second spice and horses Tabe has gotten furs.
More barb camps in the south. One Very close(4 tiles) to 'whosdamannow'. One at the coast SW, out of reach for us...I'll send a note to SS.
Barb Horseman next to asskicker, I'll guess I send him home instead.

Did some counting on the map, just to rub it in...the closest strategic resources are 16 tiles away from our capitol, closest luxury is 12 tiles away...wohooo

	10-02-2004 13:38									#3
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****!!! We're toast, just sent other S,S from 'whosdamannow' to look at the barb camp. 16 horses, 1 warrior.

Ain't that sweet, first horde appears on our doorstep

What do we do now? I'll hold the save until the rest of you report in.

	10-02-2004 13:45									#4
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We can have 4 jags and one unfortified spearman when the barbs hit us....

We can give the cash to SS for safe keeping, but our FP construction will get screwed.

	10-02-2004 14:34									#5
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What's the combat bonus vs barbs on this difficulty level (chieftain, isn't it?)

	10-02-2004 14:35									#6
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What's the combat bonus vs barbs on this difficulty level (chieftain, isn't it?)
And which of our poddible (poddible??? I meant possible) defenders will be vet / regular?

	10-02-2004 14:44									#7
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The spearman is vet, so is one jag, the rest(3 jags) are regulars..I don't know if the 'fortify all' trick will work against barbs. If so, our spearman will be fortified.

This is regent level so we have some combat bonus, 200% attack bonus according to the editor. I can only assume the bonus is valid on defence as well.

We also have higher change of promotion as we are militaristic, 25% for the regulars and 12.5% for the veterans.

(all the numbers are from old threads so I can only assume that they still are valid.)

	10-02-2004 15:06									#8
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Sent this note to SS

quote: To Team Sunshine The reason we are holding the save is that we have a barbarian uprising on our hands. 1 warrior and 16 horsemen currently sits in the camp 4 tiles S/SW of 'whosdamannow'. Our changes of stoppping them are slim at best. We risk loosing both our treasury and our FP-build in that city. We have to ask you a favour, could you keep our treasury safe until the threat is gone? Only 200+ gold but it's a lot of money for a poor nation like ourself. Any military assistance would of course be greatly appreciated, but to be honest, I don't view that as a realistic hope. Please don't reveal this info to the other teams yet. Bongo, Minister of Fine Art, Mohammed al-Sahaf Team.

	10-02-2004 16:00									#9
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Bhah this sucks,

good move asking to send the gold to SS,

I don't think all is lost though, I'm not an expert on barbs but I don't think we should asume all 16 will march directly against our cities. I've seen some very strange things from barbs. I think it more likely they will split up or perhaps even scatter a bit. If were lucky they may just roam around the wilderness for a while.
I remember once seeing 24 barb horsemen just stay in the camp they came from for the entire med age.

Even so we should probably send units from all over the empire to take care of things. We'll probably get attacked in waves so even if units don't get there for the first wave they can be there for subsequent ones.

Also we should look out for loosing workers, with workers being unable to move the turn they complete an improvement we could get caught out easily.

	10-02-2004 16:11									#10
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From looking at the save, having the JW there may be bad if the barbs are drawn towards the city by attacking him. If we raise lux to 30 we can then move all units down there it should be ok. We can have 3 JW's there this turn, then another JW and a spear next, then another 2 spears the next turn.

It all depends on where the barbs go though. We may have to form a barb killing stack and go hunting for them ourselves using the 3 spears as defence and having the JW's attack then retreat to saftey.

Also once we have a large enough stack in whosdaman the barbs simply won't attack it, instead they'll just fart about trying to pillage while we can pick them off.

	10-02-2004 16:48									#11
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The problem with barb uprising is that you cannot be sure. At least not in PBEM. In single player you could get the 'Barb uprising near Smallville' and then you would know that Metropolis is safe. Once they've targeted a city they will head directly to it.

Biggest problem is that they outnumber us 3 to 1, that's not good, even with our combat bonus. We could of course accept the loss of FP(build a settler instead), empty 'whosdam..', send the gold to SS, the units away and just let the barb horde ravage 'whosdaman' at will.

	10-02-2004 16:58									#12
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Assuming a worst case scenario - 16 horses all pile on to whosdamannow, defended by 4 fortified Jags (1 vet) and 1 unfortified spear (vet) - effective defense values of 4.05 and 6.6 respectively, we're in pretty good shape.

41.7% chance of losing no units.
32.6% chance of losing a single unit (probably a jag, as it happens)
15.5% chance of losing two units.

2.0% chance of losing the town completely.

2% isn't huge, although it's quite large to take a risk with our gold perhaps. We'll have to see where they go, and if we can wear them down outside the walls as well.

	10-02-2004 17:05									#13
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Hm, are you certain about those numbers? Only 2% change of a total defeat seems....low. We don't have walls there, and the city is built on plains.

If you are correct, we should just turtle up. Send the gold away first of course.

	10-02-2004 17:10									#14
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quote: Originally posted by bongo Biggest problem is that they outnumber us 3 to 1, that's not good, even with our combat bonus. We could of course accept the loss of FP(build a settler instead), empty 'whosdam..', send the gold to SS, the units away and just let the barb horde ravage 'whosdaman' at will.

hmmmn I wouldn't be too keen on that, however if all 16 horsemen move against the city there's not much we can do to stop it happening anyway.

How about if we move the units down to protect the city, raise the lux rate and send the gold to SS. Then we can see which way the barbs move during the turn ending. If all of them move against the FP city to attack next turn we can change the build order at the start of next turn so that it builds a settler straight away. We can get to the domestic screen before whosdaman builds by setting temple mount to finish a JW next turn, then accessing the dom screen when we get the unit build pop up. Do you always get a unit build pop up from a millitary unit in PBEM, I know you get one for non-millitary units.

	10-02-2004 17:14									#15
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No you can't, the barbs move at the end of our turn. The last change to finish the settler is this turn. Next turn is too late.

	10-02-2004 17:25									#16
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Well it would require a change in build order at the start of next turn. When we get a prompt for another city building something we can access FP city and change it's build.

quote: Originally posted by vulture Assuming a worst case scenario - 16 horses all pile on to whosdamannow, defended by 4 fortified Jags (1 vet) and 1 unfortified spear (vet) - effective defense values of 4.05 and 6.6 respectively, we're in pretty good shape. 41.7% chance of losing no units. 32.6% chance of losing a single unit (probably a jag, as it happens) 15.5% chance of losing two units. 2.0% chance of losing the town completely. 2% isn't huge, although it's quite large to take a risk with our gold perhaps. We'll have to see where they go, and if we can wear them down outside the walls as well.

Vulture is typically spot on with his calculations.

Assuming the 200% barb bonus is added after defence modifications.

For a JW. 1 + 25% fortification bonus and 10% bonus from being on plains gives 1.35 def. Times 3 is 4.05

For a spear. 2 + 10% from plains is 2.20, times three would give 6.60

I don't know how to do the rest of the calculations.

edit - no fort bonus if not fortified

	10-02-2004 17:27									#17
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quote: Originally posted by bongo Hm, are you certain about those numbers? Only 2% change of a total defeat seems....low. We don't have walls there, and the city is built on plains. If you are correct, we should just turtle up. Send the gold away first of course.

If the combat system works the way everyone has always said it does, then those numbers are correct.

Consider: the spearman has a defense of 6.6, with 4 hp. The Jags have a defense of 4.05, with 3 or 4 hp. The barbs have an attack of 2 with 2 hp. Their odds in every matchup are atrocious (their best shot is 2 attack, 2 hp vs 4.05 defense, 3 hp). 2 attack vs 4 defense means that even with average luck, you knock off 1 hp for every horse that dies. And it's worse vs. the spear. They'd do far better than average to do 16 hp of damage - and we have 17 defending, with essentially 2 or 3 guaranteed promotions - pretty much 20 hp of defense. Despite appearances, everything stacks up in our favour.

	10-02-2004 17:29									#18
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We will (probably) not be able to fortify the spear.

As for the bonus, are you sure about that barb combat bonus? In all other aspects, bonuses are added, not multiplied.
I would guess the defence value of our spear would be 2*(1 + 0.10 + 2) =2*3.1=6.2
Our jag would be 1*(1+0.1+0.25+2)=1*3.35 = 3.35

	10-02-2004 17:31									#19
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quote: Originally posted by OPD Assuming the 200% barb bonus is added after defence modifications.

Ooh - good point. I made that assumption - but I suppose it is always possible that it counts as a +200% added to the other bonuses, giving a Jag defense of 3.35, and a spear defense of 6.2. Intuitively, it would make more sense to apply the barb bonus after other modifiers, but I don't think anyone's ever looked into this.

If the worse option is the right one, we have a 30.0% chance of no casualties and a 6.3% chance of losing all our units.

	10-02-2004 17:37									#20
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We've had silly amounts of bad luck with barbs on this game...but 6% is still low enough to take the change.

We send away the gold anyway then.

If we turtle up and defend, we risk loosing 5 units and the FP build, if we succeed we will gain some promotions and keep the shields from the FP

If we give up the city, we loose the FP-build but salvage one settler and don't risk our army..

All in all, I say turtle up. With our weak position I'd choose a likely gain over a certain loss any day.

	10-02-2004 18:10									#21
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Yeah that sounds good,

also giving the gold to SS will be a good show of trust even if it is not needed.

Nicely done in the save game comments thread BTW, I was going to feed the rumours that we were involved in a war.

	10-02-2004 18:14									#22
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Still no word from SS. I suggest we wait for their response before we send them the cash.

	10-02-2004 19:57									#23
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A positive answer from SS

quote: To team MAST, We feel honored that you would ask us to help you in this way during your time of need. We will keep your treasury safe and return it when asked. We have a warrior on the other side of the mountains from that barb camp and a horsemen in the forests that will join the warrior this turn. Hopefully they will be able to draw a few of the barbs away from you. -- HarryH

We should of course offer them our most sincere thanks, and maybe some compensation if they loose some units?

Now, do we need to wait for the rest of the team? (that would be arnie...ninja kid has taken a long break)

OPD, will you play? I will be busy the next couple of hours.
Give SS 210g, send all available forces to 'whosdamannow'(3 jags and a spearman), up the luxury rate, interrupt 'new worker' SE of 'whos..', also send a spearman from 'temple mount' just in case.

I don't know what to do with all the workers, I'll guess you work something out.

	10-02-2004 20:39									#24
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quote: Originally posted by bongo A positive answer from SS We should of course offer them our most sincere thanks, and maybe some compensation if they loose some units? Now, do we need to wait for the rest of the team? (that would be arnie...ninja kid has taken a long break) OPD, will you play? I will be busy the next couple of hours. Give SS 210g, send all available forces to 'whosdamannow'(3 jags and a spearman), up the luxury rate, interrupt 'new worker' SE of 'whos..', also send a spearman from 'temple mount' just in case. I don't know what to do with all the workers, I'll guess you work something out.

Ok I'll play it now,

If anything SS should pay us interest on the money but I'll see if I can come up with some kind of thank you.

	10-02-2004 20:54									#25
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210g and WM to SS accepted
New worker stops what he's doing, but has already made this turns move.
stack of 3 workers move NW to mine next turn
happyworker irrigates
other S,S to see the barbs
lada, trabant and waterboy fortify in Whosda
danger SE,S
Willsmith and spear from capital move towards Whosda
hardworker east
4day week mines
steve south
Uday NE,E
asskicker N,N
Spear from mywife south

Lux set to 20% Rep in 6 turns

	10-02-2004 21:02									#27
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Could have been alot worse... also during the end turn Steve was attacked by a barb winning with 2 hp's lost.
Asskicker was also attacked winning with 1 hp lost.

	11-02-2004 00:07									#28
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Not bad at all, other survives and can retreat to FPstan, we'll get to fortify our spearman, and even use some our jag to attack them first

	11-02-2004 00:58									#29
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oh, sh*t (concerning the barb uprising).

That said, yeah... could have been a lot worse.

	11-02-2004 01:55									#30
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So what do you think we should do next turn? My gut instict is to pull the JW back to the city and hope they all sod off somewhere else, or at least that they don't all join up for one stack at 2,1 of the city?