24-04-2004 02:34									#1
	Multiple Choice Opinion Poll - Investment in our Future: Courthouse Shortrush amounts Support Apolyton, buy Civilization: The Boardgame

Poll time - 11 days from initial posting. Please vote for ALL things that you feel is approriate.

Please read this and any follow up discussion before making your opinion vote

With the Need for Courthouses to be built and the time constrains of getting other things built, we need to look at what we want to invest, in our Future, in shortrushing of the Courthouses. We won’t be paying out a huge, huge amount, like was done in the SPDG1, but it will be a significant amount.

I need to know, how the Nation feels about this and what amounts they are willing to spend, so that I can make the proper plans to implement and reap the benefits from this investment.

First off, some information as to the differences in not having and having Courthouses. Some of our Cities, are close enough to the Capitol, to where a Courthouse is not needed, either now or in the near future (after having Factories, Universities, Banks and Stock Exchanged, do the really give a benefit). So, these cities aren’t having Courthouses built for quite some time. The cities that need them, are the ones that will have a difference of 9% or higher, between the presence of that Courthouse and not having it there.



This chart (#1) shows the Palace and FP Centric Corruption/Waste for the different cities, depending on their distance and Rank (these figures are taken AFTER Site #’s 21 & 19 AND Lakeview is moved). Just to Illustrate this, Tripoli ( before the FP &Palace move) was at about 33% and when to about 25% after It’s Courthouse was first built. This helped immensely, in it’s later building Programs, especially for the GCA War Preparations. So, we know that the Courthouses WILL provide a significant benefit to future building programs and to our GA.

Here is a list of the cities that are in that chart:
Palace Centric:

code:

                 Now    w/Court  Color on Chart    Build/Queue
Hero's Summit   31.98%   22.61%    OrangeRed     CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Eisten Boulen   37.07%   26.70%      Cyan        CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Silk Road       40.99%   28.59%     Purple       CH/?Harb?/?boat?
site #19        40.99%   28.59%     Purple       Founded 600AD/CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Down Under      48.96%   35.21%      Gray        CH/?Harb?/?boat?

code:

                      Now    w/Court  Color on Chart    Build/Queue
Kanaola              31.98%   22.61%    OrangeRed     Harb/CH/?boat?
Eye                  31.98%   22.61%    OrangeRed     CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Antlergrad           41.11%   28.54%     Purple       CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Lumentis Bananais    41.11%   28.54%     Purple       Lib/CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Del Monte            48.86%   35.36%      Gray        Lib/CH/?Barr?/?Land Unit?
Euclidium Novem      48.86%   35.36%      Gray        Granary/?workers?/CH/Workers
Lumen Musae          48.86%   35.36%      Gray        CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Protuberance         48.86%   35.36%      Gray        CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Pull Through Strider 48.86%   35.36%      Gray        CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Vox Publica          52.64%   37.23%     Yellow       CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Memoria Fraxia       52.64%   37.23%     Yellow       CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Mongoose Abyss       61.57%   43.54%      Cyan        Temple/CH/Harb/?boat?

I have taken the Best and Worst benefit amounts and made a sliding scale, that allows me to help Prioritize the amount of shields that are used in the Shortrush Program, depending on how much of the 80 shields need for the Courthouse are actually Shortrushed. I’m using a Maximum of ½ of the total cost as a Maximum cap, and multiplying that by the "scale factor" to get the amounts of shields to Shortrush. This brings us to several different options, as to what we want to Invest.



This chart (#2) shows the number of Courthouses needed and the Itemized shields and Gold spent, on each Plan Option. Options 1 to 6 are straight scale percentage amounts, taken from Chart #1. Options 7 to 10 are Progressive amounts (see the semi-diagonal colored cells on chart #1), to get a more "even" amount for each base option. The Total amounts range from (about) 720 Gold to 1836 Gold. Exact amounts might not be done, because of the different variables when Shortrushing. These differences are (but not limited to): when Shortrushed; shortrushing to what amount; if that amount isn’t available (no 50 shield Item to Shortrush up to); funds availability.



This last chart shows the different Options, in order of amounts that we want to look at Investing. We can also Not make this Investment, but then, around ½ of our cities will still be struggling to get firmly established AND productive, for our coming GA (around turn 219 or SOONER). If we want to make the best of our GA, both economically and Production Capabilities, we need to make this kind of Investment.

I can not give you a cost/benefit analysis, over time, but I can tell you, that it does pay off and the sooner that we can get those Courthouses up and running, the sooner they can start on other things and make more of a contribution to our total efforts.

MoI E_T

Last edited by E_T on 25-04-2004 at 13:18

	24-04-2004 05:06									#2
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Ok, let me get this straight.

(Last Chart)
The yellow is the estimated cost in gold to finish all the shortrush CH?
The grey is how many shields, in total, that will be rushed?

	24-04-2004 07:37									#3
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Yes, estimated, as shortrushing all depends on what your current SPT is, what your shortrushing to (no 50 shield item... ) and what you need to finish that Item, without any waste (or as little as possible. BUT, it gives me a target to work off of, when I do my planning.

Hey, If I can save a few gold here and there, It's all well and good.....


E_T

	24-04-2004 10:04									#4
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Took me a few minutes reading everything carefully, E_T, but I understand it. The Plans are split into 1-6, where all Courthouses are being short-rushed when they reach shield values of 1/2, 1/3 etc of the total shield cost needed to finish them. Plans 7-10 are made where eg, some Courthouses are short-rushed at 50% completion and some at 66% completion. E_T has obviously taken a common sense approach and just given us a small number of the total possibilities in 7-10 here, as it would not be a good use of time (nor very interesting) to look at every conceivable possibility. Disregard all the striked stuff for the time being, as it is not quite correct.

There's a question or three raised by this E_T. Please look at these one at a time, as they may be quite confusing if thought about all together.

First, when you say '1/2 cost' etc, you mean the cost to short-rush when the CHs are halfway between where they are now and the total shields to build them, yes? If you meant the absolute '1/2 cost' then all your shield values would be the same.

Secondly, the reason chart 2 is split into two horizontal sections is to show the difference between Palace-centric and FP-centric, correct?

Question 3:

Let us take for example the top (Palace-centric?) cities in plan 7 as an example to hopefully explain what I mean here. You have 2 CHs being rushed at 1/2 cost (the ones that cost 18 and 21 shields to finish) and the other three CHs (2 that need 52 shields and one that needs 29 shields) at 2/5 cost. The costs obviously apply to individual cities. My question is: are the cities you have being short-rushed at 2/5 cost likely to take very long to get to that cost level? My concern is that if you opt for a plan where some CHs are rushed at 1/2 and some at 2/5, one or more of the ones at 2/5 may take a relatively longer time to get there than some of the ones you have to be rushed at 1/2 cost. Or have you taken into account the length of time it will take each individual city to get to these cost levels with their shield values?

Hope this is clear.

In this plan you are short-rushing Courthouses

	24-04-2004 10:33									#5
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This plan will set back the invasion 10-20 turns by itself.

Long-term planning... right...

The invasion is all that matters for the rest of this game.

	24-04-2004 18:54									#6
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I agree that in the long run this is needed. However, what is the damage that would result in expending these funds relative to our upgrade and invasion plans? I would not want to see any significant delay in the invasion as I feel that it is already cutting itself close. A couple turns, good. 10 turns - well, that is a bit that I would have to think about - 15 turns is just to much of a delay IMHO.

	24-04-2004 20:19									#7
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quote: First, when you say '1/2 cost' etc, you mean the cost to short-rush when the CHs are halfway between where they are now and the total shields to build them, yes? If you meant the absolute '1/2 cost' then all your shield values would be the same.

O.k., the cost

A CH is 80 shields (it's full cost), so 1/2 the cost is 40 shields. So, for that option and that city ONLY, we would shortrush it by about 40 shields, for a total of about 160 gold.

Example: say that 18 turns from now, Down Under has 31 Shields accumulated towards it's CH build. On the sliding scale (for the 1/2 option), it would get 29 shields for it's shortrush. We shortrush that build, by the 29 shields, up to 60 shields (using a granary to shortrush) and then, that city has only 20 shields left to build.

quote: Secondly, the reason chart 2 is split into two horizontal sections is to show the difference between Palace-centric and FP-centric, correct?

That was because I had that on the same sheet as the other 2 charts (in excel) and if you just take the left end of chart #2 and stick it on the right end of chart #1, you'll see where they would coincide.

The Progressive plans, where they are essentially the same cost, across the board. The Sliding scale is calculated, taking the greatest difference (18.03%) the least difference (1.99%) and using that this way:

code:

scale factor = (difference for city - 1.99)/(18.03-1.99)

This scale factor was then multiplied to the different sheild cost amounts. They are on the chart (at the bottom. on the 100% scale line). But they are:
1/2 - 40
2/5 - 32
1/3 - 27
1/4 - 20
1/5 - 16
1/6 - 14
So, for a city that would get a scale factor of 46.01% (Hero's summit), and we do the option 10 (the cheaper progressive cost), we would be short rushing a total of 12 shields at a cost of 48 gold. Again, because of the vagralities of shortrushing, in referance to total sheilds needed for a build and what it can be shortrushed up to at that time.

So, lets say, in the Hero's Summit example, in 20 turns, we have an oppertunity to get that city shortrushed for the lump sum of 12 shields (say up to 60). But the city will produce 3 SPT over the rest of the build and we actually wasted 1 sheild (and 4 gold). So, we plan it, to where we can either shortrush it sooner or later or even split it up over different times, to help take care of that one sheild. And depending on things, we mith spend for 2 more to get that build finished 1 turn sooner (and to allow better splits of the shortrushes), one sheild less and same time. That is where I stated that they are approxamate costs and I would try to make it less, as possible.

When doing the sheets for other cities, that are building Aquaducts, Granaries and whatever, I find that sometimes, a build has 4 out of 7 sheilds left, so, have to find those 4 shields or add them in with short rushes. But then, the perfect time to have done that 4 shield shortrush, was the turn before (already played, can't change it.... ) and then, no matter HOW I work it, I have to shortrush for 5 sheilds, so I lose 1. But rater do that, I just change things to make 3 less sheild and then the last turn is 7 out of 7 needed to finish.

E_T

	24-04-2004 23:45									#8
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quote: Originally posted by GodKing I agree that in the long run this is needed. However, what is the damage that would result in expending these funds relative to our upgrade and invasion plans? I would not want to see any significant delay in the invasion as I feel that it is already cutting itself close. A couple turns, good. 10 turns - well, that is a bit that I would have to think about - 15 turns is just to much of a delay IMHO.

First off, from before the Palace move, Trip has been complaining a lot about the fact that our new core is shield poor. So. let's take a real example, from one of those cities, Silk Road.

Silk Road CURRENTLY has 4 Forrest (2 with Silks - All roaded), 2 unimproved grasslands, 1 Roaded Grassland, 1 Irrigated Bonus Grassland, 3 Unimproved Mountains (one with Gold). We are currently Mining the Gold Mountain. Plans are in the works to chop and Irrigate one of the forrest and mine or Irrigate one of the grasslands. Down Under, Zenophobia and Solace will be using some of those tiles, so, when things are Improved and Silk Road is size 6, it will have, BEFORE Corruption/Waste: 9 SPT and 21 TPT (Trade Per Turn). This is also assuming reg grassland after Chop.

So, without the Courthouse, it nets 5 SPT and 12 TPT.
And with the Courthouse, it nets 6 SPT and 15 TPT.

A Harbor costs 80 shields, Caravel is 40 and a Frigate is 60.

For the Frigates, we want Vets, so that would require the Harbor first.
Harbor - 60 shields - @5 SPT = 12 Turns - @6 SPT - 10 turns
Frigate - 80 shields - @5 SPT = 16 Turns - @6 SPT - 14 turns (has 2 shields left last turn, so we can shortrush those 2 shields for 8 gold and get it in 13 turns).

Total time - @5 SPT = 28 Turns - @6 SPT - 24 turns (23 with shortrush)

Now, with time constraints for War Prep, which is better??

Carvels, we don't need to worry about a harbor for them, although, it would be nice to have vets, regulars will do for this example. This is also assuming that we don;t have Magetism at this time (you don't need Iron for Gallions).
Caravel - 40 shields - @5 SPT = 8 Turns - @6 SPT - 7 turns (has 4 shields left last turn, so we can shortrush those 4 shields for 16 gold and get it in 6 turns).
Over a time frame of 24 turns, @5 SPT = 3 Caravels, @6 SPT (with 16 gold shortrushes) = 4 Caravels (total of 64 gold in shortrushes).

Now, looking at trade over that same 24 turn period
No Courthouse - 288 Trade (@50% - 144 Gold & 144 beakers)
With Courthouse - 360 Trade (@50% - 180 Gold & 180 beakers)

In the GA, we would have (before Corruption/Waste), 14 SPT & 28 TPT. These would come out to:
No Courthouse - 8 SPT (160 total during GA) & 17 TPT (340 total during GA)
With Courthouse - 10 SPT (200 total during GA) & 20 TPT (400 total during GA)

Now, PLEASE remember that our GA will be starting on or BEFORE Turn 219, 46 turns from this current turn.

This Example did NOT show a few things, like that we can get More SPT if the city's borders are expanded (requiring Culture), nor more trade from size 7 (Aquaduct required).

Also, keep in mind, that Silk Road is CURRENTLY at size 2 and the worker pumps will take a while to get fully set up (18 turns for next worker from Zeno), so we can either have a faster courthouse build, while keeping the growth rate slower OR faster Growth, but much more time for the CH build. I'm attempting to get somewhere between the 2, but then, I also need to know what I'm going to be allowed in the way of rushing expences, so that I can look at all of those options and see which is the best to go with.
[EDIT] Silk Road would have a Maximum of (approx) 26 shields (104 gold) expended for it's CH shortrush, depending on the Plan used[/edit]

The main thing is, that we still need time to get everything all set up, in all of our new cities. I just doesn;t happen overnight.

E_T

	24-04-2004 23:56									#9
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ET: What is your recomendation then considering we are still planning an invasion?

	25-04-2004 00:49									#10
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I would like to get the CH builds done as soon as it's possible, so that they can go onto other things. When over 1/2 of our Production & Trade Capabilities are tied up with this, while we are working on getting them up to snuff, it helps to get them done in as quick as possible. BUT, I also realize that we have limited funds. It's not really a question of IF we are building the CH's, but when they will get done, so as to go to something else and be a major contributor to our Economy and Manufacturing.

We do get that money back, in some cases, before our GA, in others, by the middle of the GA. For just 1 city, 2 beakers per turn (and 2 GPT) isn't much, but then multiplying that over the other 17 cities, that is significant when doing research and generating cashflow, for other things, like Upgrades.

E_T

Last edited by E_T on 25-04-2004 at 01:02

	25-04-2004 10:56									#11
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my question:

will the costs of the Courthouses be sufficiently complemented by the extra income generated by the loss of corruption in these cities and OVERCOMPENSATED by triggering our GA with cities more cities which have CHs already and thus generating a GA without them?

(i.e., if we're going to have these Courthouses up anyway by the time of the GA I honestly don't see where the big benefits of this lie. If not, then yes, I approve it.)

	25-04-2004 11:11									#12
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E_T,

The thing I think we need is a cost/benefit over time. Your last chart gives us the TOTAL cost of the various programs. The game-winning or game-breaking question is how much VALUE we get back over set periods of time when compared to those costs. Otherwise, it's just going to be a huge jumble of numbers and people are going to vote their gut just as they would if you hadn't bothered posting that.

If it is possible, the thing we need a handle on is the following:

Assume that under each plan we can reasonably predict an estimated (need not necessarily be anywhere close to exact unless you really have the time to be that anal) value in shields and commerce per turn compared to not short rushing that we would receive under that plan.

Understandbly, that figure won't be quite STATIC and thus the graph of additional commerce and shields over time will not be linear, but some amount of guestimation could be used to save a TON of time from anally planning out alternate building plans under each case (if you want a really crude method for doing that, I can think of a way to use the curve of one plan as a template for estimating the other curves... very very messy, but it would work for estimation purposes).

Now, after that work is done, you show the chart where it plots out how much extra commerce and shields we gain over time from each plan (estimated, perhaps crudely). Posters can then clearly compare that to the COST of each plan in a way that is very easily understandable. With some input from Trip and others who are thinking about an attack plan, posters can far more easily get a handle on the IMPACT of various plans on the timetable for our assault.

I'm willing to bet that some people's assumptions may not even work out as true. It's even possible that we could demonstrate the impact of some range of the plans would provide MORE shields and commerce comparative to cost by a point where it would amount to a net benefit for the invasion plans.

It's also possible that Trip could be correct here. The cost may simply not recoop itself until well into the future, certainly well after we wish to invade... at which point the question becomes whether we consider it more critical to move forward the timing of our invasion or to have some insurance for future economic domination of the game should our initial invasion be less than perfectly successful (not putting all of our eggs in one basket...).

The tool we need for that and especially the tool that most of the members on the team will need is a CLEAR summary analysis (the fewer numbers and the more visuals, the better) of the COST versus VALUE of each plan over time.

Right now, we can see the cost.... it's really really high. We need some idea of the value, or people aren't very likely to vote for this.

	25-04-2004 11:41									#13
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This plan costs us a lot in shields and gold to get the CHs up. Yes, their value will come back to us over time, but we don't have so much time for this to matter. It's like us waiting for Chivalry before going for GCA, preparing a force of 30 Knights to invade instead of the 20+ MIs and whatever else we had. Or lugging a 50cal machine gun to a bar fight. You're either pre-empted and shot dead setting up your gun platform or you blow the enemy away 20 times over what was necessary. Knowing what we know, we're more likely to get shot dead.

As I posted in the recent turnthread, GWT is set for war on this game, and when they get Nav they're coming this way. The whole point in trying to invade them was to prevent that situation from happening, seizing the initiative for ourselves and not having to weather an invasion in order to win this game.

If we're going to wait until 3/4 of our GA is over or later, then we shouldn't even bother planning for an invasion at all. GWT will come for us before then. The point in us invading them is to stay one step ahead of them and deliver our hammer-blow before they get a shot at landing theirs.

We don't need a 50cal machine gun in 70 turns, we need a M16 in 45. When GWT is dead those Courthouses won't matter.

	25-04-2004 12:36									#14
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TO Arnelos: to get a complete cost/benifit analysis for all 10 plans, for all 17 cities that are covered under this plan, is not feasable, even IF I had the time.... (unless Apolyton wants to start paying me..... hehe).

* E_T can give anyone his paypal account, so that they can make donations.....

First off, let me make a list of the cities that are in that list
Palace Centric:

code:

                 Now    w/Court  Color on Chart    Build/Queue
Hero's Summit   31.98%   22.61%    OrangeRed     CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Eisten Boulen   37.07%   26.70%      Cyan        CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Silk Road       40.99%   28.59%     Purple       CH/?Harb?/?boat?
site #19        40.99%   28.59%     Purple       Founded 600AD/CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Down Under      48.96%   35.21%      Gray        CH/?Harb?/?boat?

code:

                      Now    w/Court  Color on Chart    Build/Queue
Kanaola              31.98%   22.61%    OrangeRed     Harb/CH/?boat?
Eye                  31.98%   22.61%    OrangeRed     CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Antlergrad           41.11%   28.54%     Purple       CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Lumentis Bananais    41.11%   28.54%     Purple       Lib/CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Del Monte            48.86%   35.36%      Gray        Lib/CH/?Barr?/?Land Unit?
Euclidium Novem      48.86%   35.36%      Gray        Granary/?workers?/CH/Workers
Lumen Musae          48.86%   35.36%      Gray        CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Protuberance         48.86%   35.36%      Gray        CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Pull Through Strider 48.86%   35.36%      Gray        CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Vox Publica          52.64%   37.23%     Yellow       CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Memoria Fraxia       52.64%   37.23%     Yellow       CH/?Harb?/?boat?
Mongoose Abyss       61.57%   43.54%      Cyan        Temple/CH/Harb/?boat?

Last edited by E_T on 25-04-2004 at 13:22

	26-04-2004 02:59									#15
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E_T,

You're assuming that what I'm asking for is for the benefit to be literally calculated out... I mentioned myself that such a calculation, if you really wanted to go to such an anal level, would take forever. My point is that such things can be crudely estimated for at least workable figures that you can use for broad comparisons.

I realize that such a practice must be an ABSOLUTE ENATHEMA to your mercurial and perfectionist nature, but neither we nor you have infinite time to spend on the problem. A series of guestimates really would be good enough, at least better than the complete absence of any evaluation.

Something as crude as taking the difference in shields and commerce per turn at different pop levels (merely averaged between likely WFs) and using that to quickly draw out how much gain each plan would give (based upon when the courthouse would be complete under each plan, which can also be guestimated in a similar manner) would quickly answer the question.

Sure, it's crude. Sure, it's likely to be horribly inaccurate in the nitty gritty details. But we're not trying to make an 80-turn micromangement plan for each individual city here. We're trying to decide whether the ENTIRE PROJECT which you propose is worthwhile. So simply averaging some stuff together and estimating in other places is good enough... as long as we get an approximate image of the "big picture", that's what's needed.

	26-04-2004 05:31									#16
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Thanks Arnelos. Your point explains better what I was in a round about way looking for. Just a guesstimate (you're far more familiar with the working of this particular game than I am & probably anybody else is).

	26-04-2004 07:46									#17
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[EDIT] made one small mistake, correcting now[/edit]

Here is one, Antlergrad. It's currently slated to build CH/Harb/Boat. That can change somewhat, but lets look at that configuration for the moment.

PLEASE NOTE: that this is based on all grassland after Jungle chops and not using a Hill that doesn't become available until turn 193 (if it's even mine by that time)

This city, under the maximum plan, gets 26 shields shortrushed. Because of the way things turn out, on it;s built, I can get it with 25 sheilds, so that gets 100 gold spend on the CH shortrush.

So, what does that give us in return

code:

Turn #        straight              w/shortrush
 190          Note #1               ---
 195            ----              CH built
 197            ----              Note #3
 200          CH built               ---
 203          Note #2                ---
 209            ----              Harb built
 213          Harb built             ---
 219          GA starts           GA starts - Frigate Built
 222          Frigate built          ---

Last edited by E_T on 26-04-2004 at 08:08

	26-04-2004 18:07									#18
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I like the idea of using some shortrushes to take advantage of situations where spending 4-12 gold (per rush) will shave a turn off a build (and minimize production overrun).

I'm not sure I like the idea of shortrushing large chunks of a build, though.

I really hate the idea of going into our GA with most of our cities lacking CHs. OTOH, we don't have all that much money, and we're going to need a bunch of it for upgrades.

So I'm leaning towards E_T's option 6.

-Arrian

	27-04-2004 01:56									#19
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I think both Arnelos and MZ are thinking what I'm thinking, what is the cost/benefit of this ... in real terms.

IF we shortrush anything, it needs to be reasonably priced and it needs to pay off over time.

For example:

IF the cost we spend to short rush the CH's results in us ultimately making more gold than if we just let them get built on their own, I'd approve of the plan.

So far I haven't seen that. What I see is us getting an additional sheild or a couple extra commerce points a few turns earlier than we would have, and us using up all of our upgrade funds to do so.

I doubt we're going to get Leonardo's. Upgrading horses to Cavs is going to be damn costly and it's the most important thing we should be spending our money on, besides upgrading to galleons.

I can handle a city building a unit a turn or two slower because we didn't rush a courthouse. What I can't handle is not having the funds to upgrade our invasion force at the best possible time to attack.

--Togas

	27-04-2004 04:19									#20
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I believe that I do now understand where you are going and what you intend. I for the most part agree, but am still hesitant about the funding. I voted for 6 & 10, as I am all for getting the courthouses up and running prior to our GA (and I know how they pay for themselves in the long run), I don't think we have all the funds to do so at this time.

	03-05-2004 04:02									#21
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Bumping this, as it has a few more days left

E_T

	03-05-2004 04:46									#22
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Thanks E_T. I still am puzzled about a few things, and have not had time to fully reread and digest all the postings since I last asked silly questions.

* MrWhereItsAt crosses his fingers

	03-05-2004 07:21									#23
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Only 16 voters... and a number of those voted for various abstain options. I'd say it's safe to say that the team is still trying to figure this out... which, frankly, to some extent I am as well.

	04-05-2004 09:01									#24
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I voted