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Edan
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
Yes, but cairo is a HUGE city, spread out, plus less wood construction than Japanese cities. I would bet that a 200 kiloton warhead right in the middle of the city at optimal times would not reach 400,000 dead in such a modern city- you would need a spread of nukes, perhaps up to 15 to come close to killing 20 million there. |
You're forgetting about the death tolls that will rise from the after effect of such an explosion - the city (and likely Egypt's government) would be incapacitated for a very long time, and things like food and clean water as well as medical care would become major immediate problems
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GePap
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of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:36
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quote:
Originally posted by Edan
You're forgetting about the death tolls that will rise from the after effect of such an explosion - the city (and likely Egypt's government) would be incapacitated for a very long time, and things like food and clean water as well as medical care would become major immediate problems |
Yes, but I am taking that into account- I would not expect 400,000 killed instantly, but over a few days form a single bomb.
People overestimate in their minds the numbers who would be killed outright by a nuclear exchange. It is a very sad and vengeful fantasy to think Israel's nuclear arsenal would "kill all the arabs", plus, if it is an arab v Jew issue as the ones who talk about attacking Egyptians if AQ attacks Israel seem to think, well, so you kill maybe a third of the arabs, but "the Holy land" ends up being utterly wiped "clean" of Jews, then sorry, but the Jews lost that one BIG.
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GePap
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of the Big Apple
Nov 2001
time: 23:36
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quote:
Originally posted by Azazel
quote:
Yes, but cairo is a HUGE city, spread out, plus less wood construction than Japanese cities. I would bet that a 200 kiloton warhead right in the middle of the city at optimal times would not reach 400,000 dead in such a modern city- you would need a spread of nukes, perhaps up to 15 to come close to killing 20 million there.
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This depends on the nuke. It may be a high-radiation one, etc. Besides, Cairo has enough shitholes that would be devasted on their own. |
While we know Israel has nukes, we don't know if they have had the ability to boost them past lets say 100 kilitons a warhead. Yes, I am sure there is plenty of crappy construction in Cairo-but it is decentralized, which is why you would need multiple warheads. A city as massive as Cairo might be taken out by a single 25 Mt blast, thougha ctually you would influct gretaer damage by spreading out a bunch of 1 Mt blasts.
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Edan
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
Yes, but I am taking that into account- I would not expect 400,000 killed instantly, but over a few days form a single bomb. |
But it isn't just going to last days - Crippling (I would assume) every major city in the Middle East would take a long time to fix. Think years or decades just to triage the problem. Plus you'd most likely have mass panic and evacuation from the cities - the logistics of trying to get food to the people would be a nightmare. And then there's the oil prices skyrocketing through the roof...
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Edan
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quote:
Originally posted by GePap
Which hurts everyone else..
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Well, primarily the middle east - which are going to need th emost help - there will still be major oil supplies in Russia, US, etc. so the price will drop eventually (though still remain high).
Anyway, oil prices are going to skyrocket at some point, anyway.
quote:
so Israel dies, out of vengence it kills several tens of millions of Arabs..Oh goody...but heck, the conflict is over.... |
I'd say the death toll would far exceed 100+ million, like I've argued but...
What do you think Mutually Assured Destruction was all about?
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lord of the mark
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FUKCOV - Former United Kingdom Colony of Virginia
Dec 2000
time: 00:36
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quote:
Originally posted by Sandman
I'd rather be on the receiving end of a chemical attack than a conventional attack.
We're very lucky that the terrorists are wasting so much energy trying to acquire such an impotent weapons system. Gas isn't banned because it's super-effective, it banned because it's ungentlemanly.
Also, the idea that nukes are an appropriate response to chemical weapons is completely and utterly insane. |
without getting into the complete debate on Gas as WMD, its principally effective delivered in large quantities by artillery or air, as the Iraqis did to the Kurds. AQ is clearly not capable of that.
As a terrorist weapon gas is only really useful against a very crowded enclosed place. Like a subway or metro system. It could be quite devastating against a principle station in DC, New York, London, Paris, etc. Especially in conjunction with conventional bombs as well, multiplying the panic and reducing the effectiveness of rescue. Which is why here in DC we have chemical detectors at key metro stations. I presume the same are used in New York, London etc.
As of now Tel Aviv does not have a metro (funding still under dispute?) The "carmelit" in Haifa is not that heavily used, IIUC, and in any case its few stations are I assume watched most carefully by Israeli security.
I would rate a chemical attack by AQ on Israel as one of the less likely prospects in the WOT.
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Pax
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It's not good policy to attack countries that have no control over AQ. It's good policy to stop making the same mistakes that caused WW1.
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Sandman
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Sinister Penguin
Aug 2001
time: 05:36
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quote:
As a terrorist weapon gas is only really useful against a very crowded enclosed place. Like a subway or metro system. It could be quite devastating against a principle station in DC, New York, London, Paris, etc. |
Yes, or Tokyo. How about if they used six operatives in a coordinated strike on the heart of the subway system, using sarin. They could kill all of 12 people.
Meanwhile, a single mentally ill man managed to kill 200+ people in the Seoul subway with a milk carton filled with lighter fuel.
quote:
As mentioned in the other thread, WMD has been used to refer to NBC weapons pretty much since they were invented. It's not like we just made it up recently. |
It remains as meaningless now as when it was arms control jargon, or when it was appeasement jargon.
quote:
I just remarked that Israel would almost definately retaliate with nukes. Where did I make any moral judgements? |
"Not really. All are WMD."
By using the term WMD, you made the moral judgement that gas is morally equivalent to nuclear weapons, and that thus the 'Israeli' position is justified.
quote:
Aside from that, though, of course it's a good policy - ever heard of deterrant? |
Ever heard of justice? The idea that a piece of jargon should weigh more than the lives of thousands suggests that you haven't.
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Pax
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quote:
Originally posted by Kucinich
Aside from that, though, of course it's a good policy - ever heard of deterrant? |
It's sad to read history and see the same things happening again. The soldiers of WW1 realized within a year that wars should be avoided. We have guys like Kucinich that openly advocate going around starting with countries whose policies we don't like. You need to look behind the facts of history and find the causes and effect. Read about the patriotic fervor that countries have been whipped into sending young men off to die for foolish reasons. It seems like only a short period of time goes by and thw horrors of war are forgotten.
Old soldiers have a saying "Pray for peace but prepare for war"
It seems like people could give a **** about peace these days.
My last suggestion for people so eager for blood is to join the military so they can get their asses shot off and come home and say it was no problem.
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20-05-2004 23:50
[/troll] 
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