10-06-2004 09:01									#1
	Analysis of GWT's Army (640 AD) Get a bigger avatar today!

Well most of you know that on turn 640 AD we were average to GWT's strenght, I decided to use BFM's former Area-X sheets to try and estimate GWT's strenght that turn.


Background

Loading the 640 AD save reveals off the bat that we are average to GWT. In that turn almost all our units are fortified. To reach weak status, I unforted the Knight stack from BFC. Just one knight in that stack being forted brings us back to average. In order to increase the accuracy of the weak/average threshold, I forted some of our weakest units, the two horses built that turn. Forting both horses brings us to average again and thus that is taken as the standard for measuring our strenght.


Measuring our strength
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In 640 AD we had:

17 - Numidian Mercenaries.
17 - Medieval Infantries
2 - Horsemen
15 - Knights
13 - Catapults


Of these, the grand majority were veteran units. However, with regards to HP we had:

2 - Elite NMs
2 - Regular NMs
3 - Elite Knights
1 - Elite MI
1 - Regular MI


Most units were fortified at the start of the turn. For accuracy, the knights were unforted and the horses forted. A few other units were also unforted. These were:

3 - Vet NMs
1 - Elite NM
2 - Vet MIs
10 - Vet Knights
3 - Elite Knights

with this data we can obtain a total value of 236.60 for our army.


GWT's Army
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First step is to start with what we DO know. This meant checking CGN's posted screens regarding GWT's uber-stack in 640 AD. This stack was composed of:

11 - Pikemen (1 Elite)
5 - Medieval Infantry
18 - Catapults
16 - Ansar Warriors (2 Elite)

Furthermore, from next turn's stack we see 8 additional veteran Longbowmen which were surely Archer upgrades. These are added. So are 3 additional Ansar which do not appear on the 640 stack, one of these an elite. So we have total KNOWN units:

11 - Pikemen (1 Elite)
5 - Medieval Infantry
18 - Catapults
19 - Ansar Warriors (3 Elite)
8 - Longbowmen

This gives GWT a total strenght of 171.9 which leaves us with a 138% superiorty over them. Because the weak/average threshold has been identified, we need GWT's total strength to be 295.75. In conclusion, GWT's "unknown" units compose approximately 41.8% of their strenght.


Estimating the rest
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The rest of the job is simply to make an educated guess on GWT's unit ratios until they reach the 295.75 total needed. The first estimate uses the proportions of their known units (and thus likely very unaccurate)

GWT's Army using current ratios

19 - Pikemen
9 - Medieval Infantry
31 - Catapult
33 - Ansar Warriors
14 - Longbowmen


Ratio Estimate #1

19 - Pikemen (25%)
12 - Medieval Infantry (20%)
18 - Catapults (0%)
32 - Ansar Warriors (40%)
13 - Longbowmen (15%)


Ratio Estimate #2

19 - Pikemen (25%)
12 - Medieval Infantry (25%)
18 - Catapults (0%)
29 - Ansar Warriors (30%)
15 - Longbowmen (20%)


Ratio Estimate #3

21 - Pikemen (25%)
13 - Medieval Infantry (25%)
18 - Catapults (0%)
31 - Ansar Warriors (35%)
11 - Longbowmen (10%)


HOW THE EXCEL SHEET WORKS
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


I have uploaded the excel sheet so that anyone can calculate GWT's strength. It is rather easy to do so.

1) Look at the green table to the right (ESTIMATES). It lists the number and ratio of GWT's existing army. In red is the column (% Extra) where you can input your estimated percentages of GWT's "unknown" army). Make sure it adds up to 100%.

2) Check the Total Unit Value of GWT's army at the bottom right of the left hand green table (THEIR ARMY). It should approximate 295.75 as close as possible.

3) It likely won't. To the right of this cell is another green cell at the bottom right of the ESTIMATES table. This is the estimated number of GWT's extra troops. Adjust that number until the Total Unit Value is as close to 295.75 as possible. In that same table, the right-most column (Total) which is in red, will give you the total number of GWT's troops, including their known and unknown troops.


Have fun


Download the excel sheet HERE

Last edited by Master Zen on 10-06-2004 at 09:23

	10-06-2004 09:09									#2
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So just under half their military is "at home" so to speak. Interesting. MZ... AWESOME analysis though if I do say so myself. Great job.

	10-06-2004 09:13									#3
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Btw, in order to simplify knowing exactly how many and what type of unknown troops GWT has, I have placed in blue all unknown troops, and ir red all TOTAL troops. In summary:

Black = Known troops
Blue = Unknown troops
Red = Total troops


(if you downloaded it just now, do it again, it should be version 2.0)

Last edited by Master Zen on 10-06-2004 at 09:21

	10-06-2004 09:26									#4
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quote: Originally posted by WhiteBandit So just under half their military is "at home" so to speak. Interesting. MZ... AWESOME analysis though if I do say so myself. Great job.

Well, not really. This is merely data known from GWT's stack-of-doom. Many units might not be in that stack, out of CGN's view or somewhere else around the south. I would bet that the majority of fastmovers and attackers are down south while the bulk of the unknown defenders are north.

Of course, this is just an educated guess, for all we know they might have a bunch of Ansars up north.

	10-06-2004 09:31									#5
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Good job MZ

	10-06-2004 12:01									#6
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Couldn't help but checking your numbers. I found something what seems to be a little error: you left out our boats (and theirs, too). Galleys have the same A/D attributes as warriors, but Caravels have a little more.

Last edited by BigFurryMonster on 10-06-2004 at 12:10

	10-06-2004 12:03									#7
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Thanks MZ.

I'd bet less than 20% of their forces are further North than 6 tiles from Beta. The idea of bringing an "overwhelming" force is well know to all decent Civ players. There's no reason to believe that GWT fears any kind of landing by APO; thus they will have the brunt of their forces ready to deliver the final blow against CGN. Plus, with WW likely hitting them hard, they want CGN to be off that Continent as soon as possible. GWT won't be holding back much.

	10-06-2004 12:15									#8
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree Plus, with WW likely hitting them hard, they want CGN to be off that Continent as soon as possible. GWT won't be holding back much.

Hot_Enamel wonders if CGN will force GWT to wait 5 turns before accepting peace.
And if they will risk sending their galleys back and picking a fight before 5 turns is up

	10-06-2004 18:46									#9
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quote: Originally posted by BigFurryMonster Couldn't help but checking your numbers. I found something what seems to be a little error: you left out our boats (and theirs, too). Galleys have the same A/D attributes as warriors, but Caravels have a little more.

Hmmm. When I was reading your AreaX thread I believe I read somewhere that naval units did not count... in that case, I'll re-run the whole thing later tonight though if anything it just means GWT has one or two more units than we thought.

	10-06-2004 23:44									#10
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Or the same number of Naval units we have silly.

	11-06-2004 04:16									#11
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quote: Originally posted by BigFree Or the same number of Naval units we have silly.

No, because we have Caravels (1/2/3) and they have Galleys (1/1/3), thus the Caravles have a bit more weight on our score. Assuming they have as many galleys as we have Caravels it means we have to tweak their strenght a bit. Agreed though, it is likely negligible and probably only represents a 1 or 2 unit increase on their part.

	11-06-2004 12:39									#12
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Again, I reiterate my closing point:

	11-06-2004 15:26									#13
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quote: Originally posted by Master Zen Hmmm. When I was reading your AreaX thread I believe I read somewhere that naval units did not count...

It's the "naval ability" that doesn't count, but the unit itself still contributes.