 |
Send 9 of our Knights to Parthemunde?
This poll is closed. |
| Yes, send them; 21 knights at Ruhrpott |
   |
14 |
43.75% |
| No, don't send any to Parth; send all 30 to Ruhrpott |
   |
18 |
56.25% |
| Total: |
32 voters |
100% |
|
| |
|
|
DeepO
|
 |
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:36
|
|
While I'm quite strongly opposed to the Parthemunde strike (too late, too small, no surprise, and with the risk of failing Ruhrpot), the 690 shields in knights against 600 shields in the two wonders is not really a compelling argument.
The pyramids have been used already, most of their use is gone. It was vastly more then 400 shields, and even know building pyramids would be a good thing to do (BTW, when razing the city, it does not become available again, does it?). Col is a very nice wonder to have, and seeing that they still need perhaps 100 turns before flight, is worth 1300 commerce, or some 2600 beakers / gold. 200 shields is a bargain.
You can't just weigh the shield costs of knights vs wonders, not in the least as at the time the wonders were build, the shield price was a lot higher then now. If the Pyramid would have been a medieval wonder, it would have costed 600 shields at least, as it would be too powerful otherwise.
But cost vs reward isn't the issue here, the whole point revolves around risk. while I would think throwing away 9 knights would be a bargain for 2 wonders, I think that at best, there is a 5% chance to succeed (most likely lower then that). To compare them more accurately, weigh the shield costs of that: 9 knights of 630 shields, vs 5% of 2 wonders (with a inflated cost of 1000 shields). 630 vs 50.... hmmm... not a good choice in my opinion.
And to make matters worse: we're increasing risk on the Ruhrpot attack as well. With 30 knights, we don't have a 100% of winning, but let's say we've got 90%. With only 21 knights, how much will our chances drop, 20%? And in comparison, how many knights will return home with the large or the small group, does that change as well? My gut tells me, that with a small group, we don't need to plan a retreat, as they will all be gone. With a large group, some might survive.
So, in total, you've got a bigger cost on one hand with Parthemunde, and a lower risk at success. Not worth it. Let's concentrate on one objective, and be sure to achieve that instead of going on a wild goose race.
DeepO (back to lurking)
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
DeepO
|
|
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:36
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by BigFree
How many shileds does that city produce? |
guessing? 25 spt at best. 26 doesn't net anything anyway, and without special resources you won't get to 30 spt.
quote:
How many turns would they be without them? |
If they're smart, 10 at most. That includes a aquaduct rush... every surrounding city can give a worker, and it would be up and running in no time.
quote:
How many shields have they spent on improvements? |
Quite a few... but most of it went to the two wonders. Add an aqua, market, temple and lib, and you would already get the max possible.
So, Pyramids: 400. Coll: 200. Aqua: 100. Market: 100. temple: 30. lib: 80. Total 910.
quote:
How much commerce will they lose? |
Collosus is the biggest hit, that's 1300 commerce over 100 turns to flight. add some 30 cpt for the 10 turns before the city is up and running again, and you get to 1600 cpt. In shields, that's about 800 (2 gold per commerce, 4 gold per shield).
Total everything, and you get to 250+910+800 shields, or 1960 shields. Add some misguesses, and inflation, and at most Parthemunde cost them 3000 shields (which is a lot, no doubt about that).
quote:
Please, 9 Knights is a drop in the bucket compared to Parth. |
Not exactly. I mean sure, 630 shields in knights is nothing compared to the 3000 shields for Parthe. But if the strike only has a 5% chance of succeeding (my opinion, not yours), the gain would relatively be 150 shields, compared to the 630 it costs.
In order to be worth it, you have to know, given this calculation, that the success rate is over 25%. And I doubt that. Anything less is like playing on the lottery: if you win, you win big. But most likely, you just lose whatever you betted in the first place.
DeepO
|
|
| |
|
|
|
DeepO
|
|
supporting Candle'Bre
Jan 2002
time: 06:36
|
|
BF, I didn't forget anything. If, in the PTWDG, someone would take out one single GS city (let's say Hurricane, with 3 GWs), it would take less then 10 turns before it was fully productive again. I know it takes time to rebuild everything, but that is exactly the point of calculating it in shields: that is a rebuild cost. in 10 turns time, they would have a aqua, and most likely a market, and that is all they need.
As to having a cathedral: perhaps. those 80 shields can be contributed to the wrong estimate, I take care of that in the >1000 shields extra. A colleseum is higly unlikely, as they will get into WLTKD without one. And barracks are unlikely as well: this is a wonder city, set aside for wonder building. It was never a unit producer.
But the details don't really matter: it is not important if the reward is 2500 shields, or 3500 shields. The whole point is that you can't be blinded with the reward, when the risk is so high. Now if it would be a 50% shot, I would be voting for Parthe without any doubt, and perhaps, with better plans (Tibi's idea might help a little) we could get there. But to me, it doesn't like that way, this seems a long shot in the dark.
DeepO
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Kloreep
|
 |
of the pillow
Jun 2002
time: 00:36
|
|
quote:
Originally posted by vondrack
Whatever the result, I would like to ask everybody to think twice before calling others cowards. Repolling on an issue that evolves every turn is no sign of cowardice, but of wisdom.
Majority of our leadership (MZ & Kloreep, right? I am not completely sure where Arnelos stands ATM, but I think it's hardly the direct opposite of MZ/Kloreep) is against the Parthe strike. Even one of the most vocal proponents of the strike, E_T, has changed his mind. CGN did not make their last stand in Micco and the bulk of the GWT army will likely be heading back to their homelands very soon. Plus, GWT apparently used their MGL to rush the Sistine, making it less likely that rebuilding their FP would be instantaneous.
If this is not enough to justify a re-poll...
Frankly, I would only mildly object a simple consular override - and only because there is still time enough to re-poll.
So, let's stick to the issue at hand and avoid labelling people with cowards and such, please.  |
Thank you for your post Vondrack.  I'm glad someone remembers this thing called "civility."
I'm tired of being called, coward, chicken, etc. But, I knew I would have to take **** eventually when I went for this job.
|
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
| |
|
|
|
E_T
|
 |
Orlando, Florida
Mar 2001
time: 00:36
|
|
the thing is, this the the main decision point, once we go one way or the other, it's no turning back.
Again I say, If Micco had held out for EVEN 1 turn, this issue would be more or less MOOT. But that ISN'T the case and we are very much flirting with disaster, if we do go for the Parth Strike.
The Parth Strike was my idea, BASED on CGN holding out for longer than they did. Even if GWT had taken Micco, the next turn, their forces would have had to stay down in the south (to heal and regroup) Long enough to make a Massive difference, because, by then, it would have been TOO late.
Sadly, this is NOT the case and thereby, making a stab at Parth IS fool hardy. And further, we very much, now, run the great risk of not even taking out their FP.
Please, Please, Please vote NO .... OR change your vote.
E_T
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Arnelos
|
 |
of the Free World
Sep 2002
time: 00:36
|
|
I've voted yes. After really looking at this issue, I am compelled to vote yes by the timing and the likely distribution of GWT forces. The liklihood that a mere 9 knights will make any difference on the Ruhrpott strike is exceedingly low (if GWT station's the bulk of their forces within reach of Ruhrpott, it's a suicide mission regardless and if they station a token force, even 21 knights will be overkill), whereas the utility of those same 9 knights on the Parthe gamble could be EXTREMELY VALUABLE.
Again, look at the map I posted in the "Red Team" Analysis thread. It is impossible for GWT to cover all of the things they need to cover at once. Of necessity, they must split up their forces or they must prioritize some locations over others. Once we start making landings, this decision will become even more difficult for them. The Ruhr strike is highly likely to succeed because it is a relatively low-priority point for them to defend versus the many locations in their main productive core along with all of their wonders. They're going to put the bulk of their Ansars defending those at least until we make our landing and their entire thinking has to change.
As for the Parthemunde strike, the trick to making the Parthe strike work is deception. In order for the Parthe landing to work, we must deceive GWT into moving the bulk of their Ansars after our and CFC's other forces further south. We can do that by taking the hit-and-run Ruhrpott force and moving it to a location that, in conjunction with CFC, forces GWT to either send the bulk of their army to contest us or abandon that location - letting us raze it for FREE.
In effect, by using such a strategy, we force GWT into the rather uncomfortable position of having to choose between taking on our forces with their army to defend GCA or what other target we might choose or letting us have our way while being so paranoid as to just sit back thinking we'll go for Parthemunde. Either way, they lose.... if they go for our main force, we hit them from behind in Parthemunde. If they stay back, we raze all of the new GCA cities and then go home.
If we send only one of those forces, we deny ourselves the ability to take advantage of that dynamic.
So, on the chance that the Ruhr campaign works, we should at least SEND the 9 knights to stand off of Parthemunde. If GWT doesn't take the bait that we and CFC lay for them further south, we abort the Parthemunde strike while razing GCA cities. If they take the bait, we pull out the anti-GCA force and we do a surprise landing of the 9 knights and hope to raze Parthe.
I think it's pretty clear that we take the shot.
Last edited by Arnelos on 24-06-2004 at 05:45
|
|
| |
|
| |
All times are GMT. The time now is 05:36.
Apolyton Time is 00:36. |
top of page
|
|
|
Forum Rules:
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
|
HTML code is ON
vB code is ON
Smilies are ON
[IMG] code is ON
|
|
|
|
|
|
23-06-2004 21:32
|