29-07-2004 05:33									#1
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One last little issue before we play the turn (and I should've posted this before but frankly, I've been sick for the past week and the last two days have been the wost)


There are two ideas floating around about where to move our caravel stack (Group A) this turn.

1) Move it 6-6-6

This moves it clearly inside GWT territory in their view. From here, the caravels have the possibility of landing in 9 different tiles next turn. Granted, we have to cross our fingers that they will not be able to cover all those tiles but as long as we can land anywhere, preferrably around Balken, then we'll be in good shape to attempt to trash the FP.

This strategy is based on two BIG assumptions which are unfortunately out of our control:

1) that there'll be a clear landing zone next turn.
2) that we'll survive a very likely Ansar counterattack.
3) that there'll be hardly any way to land the more we delay


Advocates: Master Zen, Togas


2) Hide the fleet until we find a spot

This will not allow GWT to know our full strength (unless of course they spotted it all already) which will make it less likely to defend every tile in the Ruhr perimiter. With CFC's landing in 2 turns, perhaps GWT will divert attention and leave some part of the area clear. Under this strategy we should be able to land anywhere around the Ruhr even if it means landing up north and slogging our way down.


Advocates: Trip, MrWhereItsAt



vote!

Last edited by MrWhereItsAt on 29-07-2004 at 17:53

	29-07-2004 05:44									#2
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I can't see anything we do outside of successfully landing our army influencing the other theater.

Frankly, I wouldn't be suprised if CFC were busted on their play as well.

I vote 1, just for kicks. make them react to us. sure there is an excellent chance that:

1) no LZ, thus humiliating us

or

2) That extra turn was all they needed to pull back another 20 ansars to the area and our force is annhilated.

	29-07-2004 06:12									#3
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At first glance, I like Trip's plan. I'm open to being convinced, however. I guess I'll hear you guys out either in here or if I find time to talk to you in chat.

	29-07-2004 06:29									#4
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The reason I don't think we should give away our hand yet is just that - as soon as GWT knows for sure where our main (~10) force of Caravels is, they know where the real threat is. They know exactly where to concentrate units, and exactly how long it would take us to get to any location where we MIGHT be able to land.

The old Firaxis peninsula has a massive coastline with many opportunities. 60+ coastal tiles. GWT doesn't have enough units to cover them all at once. If we keep the main force hidden, we threaten them all. If we show it, then GWT knows exactly what to cover and can ignore everything else, thus dooming any prospects of EVER landing.

GWT already has enough units to block any landing site we can reach next turn if we move the stack 6-6-6 if you include what would obviously be changed/rushed builds. That's ignoring their force of Ansar which are inevitably arriving next turn. They can get Ansar from Flammburg all the way to Balken this coming turn, freeing up all the other units we see (Horsemen included) to cover any other tiles. I just really don't think we have a shot at landing next turn, and should scout and bide our time, and maybe we'll catch a break.

	29-07-2004 06:41									#5
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I agree with Sleepy.

We have lost the element of surprise, which has now drastically reduced any chance of our success. (or even finding an LZ)

Have some fun, spook them by showing up on their door step, then high tail it back home.

	29-07-2004 07:03									#6
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The problem I see with Trip's plan is that even if we find a tile to land on, we'll have to slog it out to get to Ruhr. By that time, GWT could very well concentrate their ansar and we're screwed either way.

I say we take the chance and like they say, "sometimes even the sun shines on a dog's ass"

-MZ

	29-07-2004 07:15									#7
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All of the landing sites on the Firaxis peninsula are only a few turns away from Ruhrpott. Besides, GWT will soon have CFC to worry about, plus they might also (hopefully) get paranoid and start preparing to defend against us in other areas of their landmass.

I look at things this way - we have a much better shot at getting Ruhr if we can actually find a place to land... and my idea maximizes the chances of that. If we move 6-6-6 GWT will know exactly where we can land, and can easily block us off from those locations. The only chance that plan has of succeeding is if GWT doesn't have enough units to cover all of their tiles... which I believe to have a snowball's chance in hell at being true.

	29-07-2004 09:51									#8
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I agree with Trip. We don't have a snow balls..to find a LZ in the North right now.

GWT, upon seeing or hearing about CFC's landing might think that our fleet of Caravels were simply there to scare them into sending everything to the North as a diversion for CFC. They may get the impression that we didn't even have units on those ships!

Now, if we get them out of view, we may be able to land them at another time; preferably two turns after CFC lands.

	29-07-2004 10:43									#9
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I don't see much point in them not knowing exactly how many ships we have. They spotted us. They see us coming already. They've already blocked off our most likely landing spots and many people on the team believe that they spotted the stack of 7 ships.

At this point, surprise is out the window. Trying to keep our total numbers secret isn't really relevant. GWT is going to assume that we have more numbers than they can see, and they're going to protect the most likely targets, every turn funneling more and more troops to help in their efforts.

I say we move in. 6-6-6. If we can't land next turn we can still try Trip and BF's suggestion that we land elsewhere. If we can land (or clear a path by killing a galley) we have our best chance at wiping their FP out.

--Togas

	29-07-2004 17:26									#10
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Hide the bulk of our forces and hope for the best, I guess... but as you guys know, I think anything we do land it toast now that they're alerted.

-Arrian

	29-07-2004 17:52									#11
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We can charge onwards in a death or glory move, which will result in death, and possibly (nastier too!) another GL for GWT. The only way we could have a shot is on the chance they disbanded zillions of Ansars so as to not have such a crippling upkeep. This thought is worth mulling over a bit more.

Or we can move in a couple of ships to f*ck with them, and try to find a landing with said few ships. If we find one GREAT, we have at least a diversionary force. But the bulk (the ones that could not be seen by them) should stay at sea and stay out of reach, allowing the possibility of a lightning strike somewhere else. If we have to wait some tens of turns, and show up with a Caravel or something on the other coast, we will be able to at the very least keep them with their crippling upkeep, or they risk vulnerability. This force is still an asset, as is the range of our ships - let's not throw it away just yet.

I say lurk for the time being with the majority of the fleet.

	29-07-2004 18:33									#12
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I'd prefer to move the stack 9-9-8.

I've voted 'hide the stack'

	29-07-2004 18:35									#13
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quote: Originally posted by astrologix I'd prefer to move the stack 9-9-8. I've voted 'hide the stack'

What is your intent, Astro? Wait to strike at Ruhr; wait to see if we can strike SOMEwhere (not necessarily Ruhr); keep them hanging, then go home; or undecided?

	29-07-2004 20:24									#14
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I think it's now or never. However I agree that this is a tough decision, with very good pro and contra argumets on both sides.

I'd like to personally thank to Master Zen for adding the "disband the banana" option, because otherwise I would have forgotten to eat my snack, which consists of 2 bananas. I've already "disbanded" one while writing this

	29-07-2004 22:43									#15
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"Roll the dice and take your chances" on the decision. Both of which of course depend upon "Rolloing your dice and taking your chances".

Im going with the deception option as oppossed to the full frontal assault right now.

I have hope, we can still surprise or confuse them.

	30-07-2004 00:08									#16
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There's another possibility, though it's as much a gamble as the others and has two big downsides:

Move the fleet 9-8-8 (don't know if that is what Astrologix intended and 9-9-8 was a typo)

from there we could land on the tile 8 of Balkan in 2 turns and our fleet would be outside spotting range next turn.

Downsides:

1) We could only land at ONE tile. No options, just Balken 8. If it's covered, we're screwed.

2) In 2 turns GWT's Ansar will SURELY be around.

	30-07-2004 02:53									#17
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The more I look at this, the more I agree with Trip's reasoning. Our best shot here is to somehow get GWT to divert forces toward the East. Without that, this entire discussion is purely academic - we're going to lose the battle whether we find an LZ or not.

The best bet in my mind is to make it look like our caravel(s) in the West are merely a diversion and play up the CFC invasion in the East. Then we just pray that GWT gives us an LZ while they worry about CFC aiming for their Leo's city or GCA or whatever.

Trying to land now, given that GWT already knew we were coming somehow and probably already has troops en route or near Ruhrpott... is suicide.

	30-07-2004 03:29									#18
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quote: Originally posted by MrWhereItsAt What is your intent, Astro? Wait to strike at Ruhr; wait to see if we can strike SOMEwhere (not necessarily Ruhr); keep them hanging, then go home; or undecided?

With the 9-9-8 move we can land our stack on two tiles (N and NE of Balkan) the next turn, assuming that our other first caravel moves North next turn to see if those tiles are unit free. Otherwise, our fleet could sail North one turn more, remaining unseen for GWT, while the second caravel moves South to divert the GWT forces.

I think the more we sail North, the more we have chances to land, but naturally only one or two turns more. Otherwise, the best choice is probably finally return home.

I don't remember : what about our reinforcements ? Have we other caravels and units ready to go towards the GTW lands ? If not, we must strike in maximum two turns, otherwise it would be suicide.

	30-07-2004 06:45									#19
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Astro,

9-9-8 would place us in spotting range of GWT's northern caravel (unless we want to sink it this turn) and while it would allow us to land at the tiles N and NE of Balkan, the same would happen with the 6-6-6 move.

Now goes my question:

if you were GWT and had the ability to bring in a sizeable Ansar force in the vicinity next turn, wouldn't you block out the entire landing area anyway? You honestly think GWT is going to divert enough troops against CFC's landing? I doubt it.

	30-07-2004 14:26									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Master Zen 9-9-8 would place us in spotting range of GWT's northern caravel

You are right Then, your 9-8-8 move is better

quote: Originally posted by Master Zen if you were GWT and had the ability to bring in a sizeable Ansar force in the vicinity next turn, wouldn't you block out the entire landing area anyway? You honestly think GWT is going to divert enough troops against CFC's landing? I doubt it.

Honestly, I don't know.

	31-07-2004 06:28									#21
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quote: Originally posted by Master Zen if you were GWT and had the ability to bring in a sizeable Ansar force in the vicinity next turn, wouldn't you block out the entire landing area anyway? You honestly think GWT is going to divert enough troops against CFC's landing? I doubt it.

The point is that we need to make them think that the Ruhr threat is merely a diversion. They spotted us and we can play around with 1-2 caravels a bit perhaps, but it'd be nice if they don't see the rest of our forces. When CFC actually *lands* on the other side, we can keep playing around with the 1-2 caravels so that GWT gets the impression that we're just trying to waste their time.

To be perfectly honest, the prospects on the invasion right now look SO BAD that that may offer us our best shot. It's too bad that we don't have a stack of empty caravels that we can move near another coastline and cause them to move the ENTIRE Ansar stack in another direction...

The point is that if GWT can really reach Ruhr with the bulk of their Ansar force by next turn, LANDING our troops is suicidal. Our best shot is to wait until at least SOME of them have been diverted to another location so we have at least a shot of slogging to Ruhr.

Of course, the problem is finding an LZ. I suppose my point is that I don't consider landing this turn to be a viable option - I'd rather keep our 30 Knights around to fight another day, on our own soil if need be, than to waste them landing at an LZ and having them all killed by GWT Ansars before we open the next save. I'd say our only good shot at taking down Ruhr and making those 30 knights VALUABLE is to somehow divert part of GWT's Ansar force. If we're unsuccessful at that, we just go home or pick another target.

	31-07-2004 06:30									#22
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Oh, btw... can someone send me the save? I'd like to see at least what is *currently visible*.

	31-07-2004 06:45									#23
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I find this one very difficult. Both options are so full of assuptions and guesses. Yet I have voted for 6-6-6.

Aidun

	31-07-2004 07:46									#24
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I voted 'Hide.' Man - this was a tough call. The way I looked at it - our options are dwindling, and this at least gives us a few more. It will also keep GWT on edge for a bit longer. And yes - in retrospect, we should have had about two or three teams of empty caravels approaching different spots concurrently, or the turn before.

	02-08-2004 01:21									#25
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A note to Master Zen and Togas:

I'm open to changing my mind (I haven't voted yet) if I can get a copy of the save and at least look at the situation in anything other than generalities.

Thank you.

	02-08-2004 06:26									#26
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