21-11-1999 02:18									#1
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I need these questions answered for the Disease/Natural Disaster Model so I can finish developing it. Anyone who knows the answer please respond ASAP.

1.) Is the map generator/Climate done yet? If so I need a copy of it so I can do the Disasters that tie to the Earth and climate unless those who are doing the map will handle that.
2.) I only found one disease which is strictly tied to terrain--Malaria--Does anyone know anymore?
3.) Should the effects of Global Warming and Pollution be included in Natural Disasters or is that a totally different model.
4.) Will each square have it's own population or will it be on a provincial basis( assuming provinces will be more than one square,I'm sure)?
5.) Will there be strict improvements like temples, hospitals, libraries and such(Even though they aren't built by the player) or will it just be assumed to be built after the advance is achieved?
6.) Will each civ start will multiple squares as in the demo,or just one? And also will each of these squares always start with the same population or will it be varied,kinda random?
7.) Also on the Climate thing, is there going to be some sort of average temp. used or will it just be climate zones(Temperate,sub-arctic, tropical...)?

	21-11-1999 02:46									#2
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I can answer a few of your questions:

1. The climate model/map generator isn't ready yet.

2. We're going to use climate zones and terrain types - we really don't need to get more specific (FE average temp, etc) unless someone can propose a good reason for it. Many diseases (and other phenomena for that matter) are based on more than just temp. FE they also require a specific range of rainfall/humidity, and often require specific vectors that may or may not be dependant on a certain temp-moisture regime. This goes for plant diseases as well, but it sounds like you're only interested in those that affect humans. On this point: pathogens that affect agriculture and forestry (my background is in forestry) seem to have been prominent throughout history, and even more so with the development of the land. Good examples in forestry are Dutch Elm disease, Chestnut Blight, Purple Loostrife, and the Gypsy Moth (to name just a few). The Irish Potato Famine was the result of agricultural disease. You might want to consider modeling these as well...let me know if you want more info on these.

3. Yellow Fever is also heavily dependent on mosquitos. I just learned today that the mosquito was the #1 animal to threaten the establishment and growth of New Orleans for the first couple hundred years (I just moved here and have been learning about the area).
[This message has been edited by Paul Crocker (edited November 20, 1999).]

	21-11-1999 02:46									#3
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TK:

Please try to make your topic names a little more descriptive, or everyone will need to read your post, even if they're not interested in, or can't contribute to it...

1) Paul Crocker and mca are the ones for this. Map model is fairly developed, thread is linked to in the status thread.
2) I think there are lots but can't name names
3) I'd say in natural disasters
4) Each square has pop
5) Infrastructure needs to be built after the tech is available.
6) Usually will be multiple squares and varying pop
7) TBD, though Paul may have a better answer

	21-11-1999 03:38									#4
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I plan on including volcanoes, tordadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, droughts, and forest fires as natural disasters. If i missed anything someone let me know.

I have a list of 15 diseases which I'm studying the effects of now. I'm just including major diseases which killed many historically. I was also wondering should I tie the diseases to a time period or not? Someone,not sure who, suggested that it should be done that way. Personally I don't think so, just because it happened one way doesn't mean it would happen the same way if we could go back and change history.

Hi Paul,

I think I will include agricultural diseases as it would definately highten realism. Any info you could send to me would be greatly appreciated. If you have a list of good books on the subject or whatever send that and anything from the Climate/map generator model that you think might help me with the disease/natural disasters.

Mark,
Sorry about the title--I was in a rush and couldn't come up with anything better. I hope to have a crude first draft in two or three weeks so when I do I'll delete this thread and start a new Disease/Natural Disaster thread if that sounds good to you.

Searching these extremely long threads for information is driving me crazy. Maybe It's time to revise the models to include all that has been decided upon and post the updated models (with some sort of version number) on the new web page. Then start new threads on the models based on the version number. Just an attempt to get more organized, maybe I'm just too much of a neat freak, I dunno.

	21-11-1999 05:19									#5
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Just a few comments...

Tornados? These are very localized events that although Very damaging where they occur do not have far-reaching effects IMO.

Diseases and time periods...
Its your model, propose what You think is right. I'm with you though that one needn't enforce an historical strait jacket on the diseases.

Sorry about the state of the model writeups, especially the econ model which I'm directly responsible for... But I tried to run the Clash project the right way IMO, working up towards a design document that was reasonably detailed starting back in May. After a little more than a month just about everyone jumped ship... I decided that obvious progress in the way of demos etc. was what the project needed. So, while I regret the poor state of the documentation, I think other things get higher priority until we get more coders on board. Although a lot of people Say they will code, most usually never produce Anything, or work for a brief spurt and then take off . Also, as the demos progress we should attract more people that can contribute by synthesizing threads into more coherent models...

	21-11-1999 05:24									#6
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Hmm this is sort of off topic but I just thought of it now and didn't think it was worth a whole thread. It would be nice if there was a 2-5 page description of each model. I don't want to read some 100+ debate just to figure out how something works, especially since it might not be that way in the future. I also think each should include a list of what information the player can know and what commands he can give. Such information is essential for interface design. I somehow get the idea that there won't be enough screen space for all of the commands and submenus.

	21-11-1999 07:46									#7
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Glak: (I respond to OT with more OT)

Yep, we know we need them... I'm just spread Very thin. Many of the 'old guard' of five or six months ago have gone awol. How are you at summarizing? Any interest on making your participation a little more official ? If there is anything on the project you'd like to pitch in on, let me know!

[This message has been edited by Mark_Everson (edited November 20, 1999).]

	21-11-1999 11:49									#8
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I plan on including volcanoes, tordadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, droughts, and forest fires as natural disasters. If i missed anything someone let me know.
-----
Avalances and landslides esp run-on landslides.

2. Well not a disease, but i just thought i'd post it here. Scurvey for sailing too long.

	22-11-1999 10:04									#9
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well I kind of wanted the summaries so that I wouldn't have to read them myself, hmm well maybe. I'm kind of busy for the next few days as I sort of tend to put off my homework for long periods of time and then I have to do it all at once.

	22-11-1999 10:14									#10
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Glak:

Been there, done that, on the homework . Well, it doesn't have to be right now... But if you Could help at some point it'd be Really appreciated. Also, it will help just a bit to get Clash into a real playable game sooner... I will do some summarization soon also, but I'm waiting till I get Truly sick of coding.

	22-11-1999 02:52									#11
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On the tornadoes, Mark, thing I agree it's not far-reaching but it does occasionally cause loss of life, but the main reason to include it would be for the economic side. The loss of property and the "relief effort" would cost some money. But at the same time the "rebuilding" phase after a tornado actually seems to boost the economy, for a very short time, so it's almost a good thing?

LGJ-- yeah I forgot those thanx

And for anyone who needs modern-day statistics of the world go to this web site: http://www.odci.gov/cia/publication...k/xx.html#trans
[This message has been edited by Toubabo_Koomi (edited November 21, 1999).]

	22-11-1999 05:52									#12
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It should be possible to calculate a value representing the level of tectonic activity in each cell in the Map Generator. The risk of disasters like earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis could be determined from this value.

Martin

	22-11-1999 14:36									#13
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Mca-- I think you and paul are working on the map model right? It looks like you guys are doing wind patterns from the old write-up. And if that is true, then every natural disaster would calculate it's chance of striking based on your model.

	23-11-1999 11:01									#14
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My gut feel is that we'll limit the natural disasters to ones which have major, "civ-level" impacts. That would pretty much rule out tornados and forest fires. I think the model just gets too "busy" otherwise.

Also:

1) Earthquakes and Tsunamis are linked. You can have the first w/o the second, but not the otherway 'round. And unless the Tsunami hits a major coastal city (not likely), it's effects tend to be minor

2) The Big One. Meteor/Comet Strike. Maybe not a good disaster for Clash. "Ten turns away from complete world domination, a Giant Meteor destroys your entire civilization." "Would you like to start a new game?"

I agree that the map generator model should be the key driver of disaster locations.

	24-11-1999 01:27									#15
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1, I think forest fire and tornadoes should be modeled but mabye not at an individual level instead you could make an area prone to forest fires, and so lose X resources pre turn combating them

2, Also meteors could be modeled just not the really large ones but say ones that would wipe out half a city or so, they could be modeled.

	24-11-1999 02:25									#16
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TK:

The factbook link is Great. I have an old paper copy around here somewhere, but it's like ten years out of date.

All:

I'd like to reinforce what Kull said... We simply can't model every type of disaster. IMO these Must be Major occurrences, or the player will yawn and dismiss the message with irritation. The threshold I'd like to set is that a disaster must affect the entire civ at a 1% or greater level to be considered. So a local disaster must Kill 1% of the population, or a broader one would need to, say, reduce economic output by 1% to even be mentioned.

Clearly Historically the most important are diseases, especially epidemics. After that probably famine.

I think carefully measuring all potential natural disasters by a yardstick such as this will save a lot of effort and discussion time.

	24-11-1999 06:47									#17
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Kull & Mark,
You guys are absolutely right, so I'll drop the tornados no prob., but the thing about the forest fires, if we use the limited resources, which last time I checked was still undecided, I'd like to have the fires to deplete some of that wood. What do you think? If you still don't want it in there I really don't mind dropping it, it would just be nice to have limited resorces, so I wanted to include some disasters that could deplete them.
So that would mean we are down to earthquakes, volcanos, hurricanes, floods and droughts(which would procuce the famines).
Oh, and Kull, I don't know why you thought I might include the Giant Meteor, that, I agree, would be a very silly thing to include in a game.

	24-11-1999 07:10									#18
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I think that using fires purely as a disaster would be historically inaccurate. It has only been in recent years (this century for the most part) that FOREST fires have been much of a problem. That's mostly due to the encroachment of civilization on forests. Historically, most cultures have used fires to their advantage (Native Americans are a GREAT example of this). Fire was used to modify the land (either to thin forests or to create grazing land) extensively in many cultures. It is regaining its former prominence as a management tool by modern foresters (we used fire extensively in Michigan to prepare sites for replanting after clear cutting - it removes the competition/weed-trees that inhibit shade intolerant species like pine and aspen).

My point: while SOME fires are disasters (FE Yellowstone), they by no means inflict the economic damage that would fit Mark's criteria. It just doesn't justify comlicating the model with another event for the player to deal with IMHO. Just my $.02

	24-11-1999 09:24									#19
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You are absolutely right also Paul. I guess I should have been clearer that forest fires along with increased tornadoes, hurricanes, floods and droughts would have been a side effect of pollution/Global Warming. Though they would also occur naturally(except forest fires.)

	24-11-1999 10:07									#20
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I still think u should add run-on landslides. These can cover large areas (20 miles) so there effects could easily wipe out even the largest city. These would be caused only by earthquakes and volcanoes. Also i still think tsunami's should be on there since they can cause sever damage on many island nations. Also i haven't seen anything on huricanes which can cause damage from winds where it goes over as well as rain damage. The latter can also cause major flooding in areas that were'nt even hit so this could easily affect an entire civ.

Also on the meteor, even a small meteor, size of a basketball, can destroy a city so i agree we shouldn't have it.

On forest fires, many of the large ones (Yellowstone) are periodic. That happen i cycles of 100, 500, 1000 years or some other thing. Also flooding (Mississippi flood of 93) happens on similar scedules. In both these circumstances there is nothing that could be done to prevent it.

Finnaly we using the El Nino, La Nina in anyway?

Also i almost forgot, if we use global warming, are we also going to have a way for global cooling? IMO it just isn't right and also the latest scientific research says that massive global warming will result always if goes unckecked in an ice age. I'll explain more if u want but it might be a very long report.

	24-11-1999 10:20									#21
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I wouldn't include any global warming or cooling. It happens according to stuff that people don't really understand. It would also be completely out of the player's control (since pollution has no effect at all, that is just a myth) and would just sort of bother the player.

As for limited resources I think that is much harder to do in this type of game. Each genre is different. While RTS games must have very limited resources TBS games generally shouldn't. The problem is that without attrition you tend to have to go with a super weapon as the endgame force (think cards at 35+ in RISK, or high tech units in civ) which isn't good. Well it's not like any other TBS has solved this problem so people won't hold it against you.

	24-11-1999 10:53									#22
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TK: My comment on the meteor was in response to LGJ's request for more disaster ideas. I proposed it mostly tongue-in-cheek. Some smilies would have been helpful.

	06-12-1999 19:09									#23
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Here is a great reference for the effects of diseases throughout history:
http://ianrwww.unl.edu/ianr/entomol...ug/contents.htm

Check out the suggested readings if nothing else...I have some books that deal with disease (mostly in forestry), but I felt that they're much too technical and narrow in focus for the purpose of this discussion. Fe example, I don't think that we'll have to model the effects of bark beetles on western pines The info in this web site on the other hand has some relevant information. Good luck!

This site very briefly describes the significance of plant diseases - which shouldn't be overlooked in the model, since their effects can be devastating.
http://res.agr.ca/lond/pmrc/cps/disease.html
[This message has been edited by Paul Crocker (edited December 06, 1999).]

Finally, this site will give you an idea of the effects of both disease and governmental policies: The Irish Potato Famine
While most people have heard of the Famine, many underestimate the effects that the Famine had on Irish, British, and American history; the Famine spawned waves of immigration whose effects can still be seen today (150 years after the actual event!)
http://www.irishfaminefund.ie/famine.html
[This message has been edited by Paul Crocker (edited December 06, 1999).]