28-09-2004 20:47									#31
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

I don't see a manned private space station as a reality in 2010.

I would like to be proved wrong.

	28-09-2004 20:47									#32
	Browse Apolyton AD-FREE

Why don't you see it?

	28-09-2004 21:12									#33
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

A prime concern is that there is a strong but unlikely chance of some kind of calamity. A serious accident or fatality of some kind that will set projects back a couple of years. When Challenger and Columbia went up in smoke they caused serious delays to the shuttle programmes. Even if practical safety fears aren't increased by such an accident there may be a reduction in investment by those who get scared off by the huge losses that could result - insurance companies amongst others may have second thoughts.

The Xprize has been around for 6+ years (not certain but certainly since '98) and is about to expire in December, leading to a sense of urgency amongst competitors to acheive success by then. This could be dangerous and lead to attempts made at the expense of proper safety testing. The opposite may be true - a deadline may cause competitors to pull out all the stops. I have doubts is all.

If all things go right 2010 is acheivable, if anything goes wrong it won't happen by then.

	28-09-2004 21:25									#34
	Avatar Enlargement: We've got the solution

I don't know if you have seen this or not, but Richard Branson wants to sell 2 hour rides in space for $200,000.

	28-09-2004 21:29									#35
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

He's been wanting to sell rides and hotel stays in space for a decade or more.

	28-09-2004 21:30									#36
	Get a bigger avatar today!

Appears he's adding meat to the bones.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/mai.../28/ixhome.html

	28-09-2004 21:32									#37
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

I don't get it. What's a "strong but unlikely" chance of catastrophe? Sounds like nonsense to me. If catastophe is unlikely, then why aren't you able to see a private station by 2010?

	28-09-2004 21:41									#38
	Support Apolyton

quote: Originally posted by DanS I don't get it. What's a "strong but unlikely" chance of catastrophe? If catastophe is unlikely, then why aren't you able to see a private station by 2010?

By "strong but unlikely" I mean that the chances of a major incident are not negligible but still less than 50%. I see the chances of some other kinds of significant delaying problems as higher than 50%.

	28-09-2004 22:04									#39
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

quote: I see the chances of some other kinds of significant delaying problems as higher than 50%.

Seems like you have a pretty good handle on what these failure percentages are. Care to share?

	28-09-2004 22:22									#40
	Support Apolyton buy from Amazon

Failure rates of presnet launches ranges from 2% to 25%. The Chinese launches are running at a rate of 1 in 6 or there abouts, the US attempts in the 60's ran at about 1 in 5 or so. I don't see why private programmes will not suffer similar rates of failure and setback.

In 5 attempts I would expect at least each competitor to have a 50% chance of a serious set-back of some kind.

Last edited by Dauphin on 28-09-2004 at 22:28

	28-09-2004 22:40									#41
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Anything not looking like this is NOT a space station

Attachment: vonbraun_wheel.gif
This has been downloaded 117 time(s).

	28-09-2004 22:53									#42
	Suffering from ads?

Good for the pioneers. It's a pity they're still deluding themselves that there's money to be made in space, but, hey, I suppose the belief keeps them going.

	28-09-2004 23:11									#43
	Support Apolyton, pre-order Civilization IV

If you plan on some unmanned launch vehicle failure by preparing redundant modules, as Bigelow is doing, then these setbacks should be negligible. A half year. 3/4 of a year tops.

With regard to the chance of individual launch failure, the Dnepr, on which Bigelow will fly most of his test articles, currently has a first level Bayesian estimate chance of failure of 16.7% for the next launch -- it hasn't failed yet in 4 launches, but doesn't have the track record for a lower demonstrated chance of failure. However, consider that as the test program goes on, the chance of individual failure falls rapidly. And again, an individual launch failure does not automatically mean that the program is delayed.

For crewing the station, we don't have to worry about that until 2010. But the Russians have proven that humans can be launched safely using expendable rockets. In a pinch, the Russians would happily launch a crew of 3 for $60 million or whatever.

For cargo, the rate of launch failure shouldn't impact the endeavor's schedule.

Last edited by DanS on 28-09-2004 at 23:23

	28-09-2004 23:17									#44
	Suffering from ads?

quote: Originally posted by DanS These aren't pipedreams. You can see the test articles pictured above. The endeavors may in the end be unsuccessful (as any achievement worth the effort and time is inerently risky), but the programs are fully-funded by private individuals and entities and we're seeing hardware fabricated and flown.

As I said, another dotcom.

quote: Originally posted by DanS But in any event, I think that ISS and Space Shuttle should be canceled based on the programs' lack of merit, not because of what is happening in the private sector.

What are you going to use as replacements?

	28-09-2004 23:21									#45
	Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

quote: What are you going to use as replacements?

Why on Earth would you replace these white elephants?

quote: As I said, another dotcom.

All individual startups are risky. It doesn't strike me that these are particularly "dotcom"-like.

	28-09-2004 23:22									#46
	Support Apolyton

He doesn't think they should be replaced. He doesn't think they really do anything useful. When I take a look at the current capabilities of the ISS, I am inclined to agree.

	28-09-2004 23:40									#47
	Tired of ads?

quote: Originally posted by Hueij Anything not looking like this is NOT a space station

That's a really cool station. We would have used the design, if we didn't figure out that spy satellites could do the job for a hell of a lot cheaper. Nowadays, it wouldn't be modular enough.

	29-09-2004 00:32									#48
	Support Apolyton

I agree... dont see it happening. Not by 2010. Even the x-prize thing is only sub-orbit. It will take a bit more to go 18k mph at 200miles up.

Hope the x-prize thing wednesday goes ok. I still wouldnt be surprised if something bad happens. We'll see what happens to all this if they blow up.

	29-09-2004 01:23									#49
	Support Apolyton

Why don't you see it happening by 2010, MWHC? The rocket business is a different beast than the space station business, so it's not a good reference point. Also, as stated above, Bigelow doesn't need any new rocketry or manned capsule to come on line for his project to be successful.

Comparing to ISS to see how long this stuff takes doesn't make sense either, considering that NASA had a much, much larger team to integrate for ISS.

	29-09-2004 01:40									#50
	Help yourself to an AD-FREE life

I was under the mistaken impression these missions were being based entirely on private enterprise including the need to develop their own load to orbit systems. If its just the space station in orbit, and delivery is provided by a 'proven' method, then that would change my opinion of its success chances by 2010 as that would be a far simpler goal to acheive than developing private load to orbit mechanisms.

And Yes, I didn't read your earlier posts properly. Either that or based on the edit timestamp you simply DanS'd me.

	29-09-2004 02:07									#51
	Inflate your Upload Space

quote: I was under the mistaken impression these missions were being based entirely on private enterprise including the need to develop their own load to orbit systems.

Anything that private enterprise could add to the mix would benefit Bigelow greatly, if only to provide another potential supplier (governments don't tend to look at things this way, but businessmen do all the time). That's why he's pitching in $25 million for a $50 million prize to generate interest in private manned lift and why he spent $12 million to buy the first flight of the privately-financed SpaceX Falcon V basically sight unseen. But strictly speaking, he could use all of the current rockets that are all government-funded design to complete his testing and deployment program.

quote: Either that or based on the edit timestamp you simply DanS'd me.

I don't think I DanS'd you on that particular point, at least meaningfully.

	29-09-2004 19:23									#52
	Get a bigger avatar today!

quote: Hope the x-prize thing wednesday goes ok.

The spaceship has taken off and is on its way!

	29-09-2004 20:36									#53
	Support Apolyton, buy Alpha Centauri

My heart about stopped when the rocketplane started rolling once the rocket started firing. But mission success!

	01-10-2004 19:48									#54
	Enter the AD-FREE zone

Despite the unplanned roll, they're trying for the prize on Monday morning.

	01-10-2004 21:26									#55
	Got spare money?

The roll only occurred under full power. My guess is that a jolt shook the rocket motor loose and got it misaligned a bit.

	01-10-2004 21:36									#56
	Remove this text

w00t!

	04-10-2004 16:08									#57
	Support Apolyton, buy Call to Power 2

SpaceShipOne goes for gold today.

	04-10-2004 19:11									#58
	Support Apolyton, buy Civilization 2

CNN developing story. We should know in a little bit.

	04-10-2004 19:53									#59
	Lose 30 kilos (of popups)

It looks like they made it!