28-09-2004 00:59									#1
	Move over NASA -- US private manned space station by 2010 Support Apolyton or Terrorists Win

Bigelow Aerospace of Las Vegas is set to launch the first privately owned and operated manned space station by 2010 (the first unmanned test subscale module will go up in 2005). Each inflatable space station module (fabric shell) has 2.75x the volume of an international space station module (aluminum shell), and by 2011 or so the station will have more volume than the International Space Station and will be doing more science. Attached is a picture of one of the modules that they have built in their Las Vegas factory -- you can see how huge these things are.

Bigelow Aerospace has a good chance of doing what they say they are going to do. The person who is financing this venture, Robert Bigelow, is looking back on a very sizable fortune and is funding the project to the tune of about $500 million.

Sweet!

http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n0409/27bigelow/

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Last edited by DanS on 28-09-2004 at 01:09

	28-09-2004 01:08									#2
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It seems to me that it would take about 5 times $500 million once operational costs are factored in.

	28-09-2004 01:11									#3
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It is tough to know what a reasonable operations cost baseline is for private enterprise, considering that NASA and RSA are the only ones to have done space stations in the past.

	28-09-2004 01:12									#4
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"Trailer homes in SPACE!"

	28-09-2004 01:14									#5
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quote: Originally posted by DanS It is tough to know what a reasonable operations cost baseline is for private enterprise, considering that NASA and RSA are the only ones to have done space stations in the past.

Ok, so lets see- how exponential are the insurance costs? And given that they would not be using government and NASA safety standards, which scientific institutions would take the risk?

	28-09-2004 01:18									#6
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Woah! 2.75 times as large as an ISS module! The external design sounds fairly robust too; I was afraid that an inflatable design wouldn't be able to withstand the impact of space debris.

It's a pity the US government doesn't invest much in the space program anymore; it's been shown time and time again that despite the initial investment, the spin-offs from space technology more than pay for themselves... At least the private sector aren't oblivious in seeing that there's a lot of money to be made!

I'll hold my breath for the moment though. I've been disappointed in the past when projects such as this have failed to live up to their expectations.

	28-09-2004 01:27									#7
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To me it's not about how much NASA spends. They throw away billions every year (or rather, the politicians who direct the spending throw away the money). NASA has become much less compelling every year since Apollo. Maybe they're victims of their own success.

Private space is trying things in new, much less costly ways. The US is rapidly reaching a critical mass of private space ventures. Lots of people with lots of money, experience and brains doing things smartly. It's fun to watch, even if we know that most of the ventures will fail.

	28-09-2004 01:30									#8
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Anyone care to comment on the liability questions? And what about the sending of human beings into Space? What space vehicle would dock with this thing? Launching from?

And the countless other legal, insurance, health, environmental and other questions?

	28-09-2004 01:37									#9
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With regard to liability, who knows? They could probably self-insure on the startup articles.

With regard to legal, health, environmental and other questions, I guess they must be figuring it all out (IANAL and am not being paid by Apolyton for a 150 point plan to address all this crap ).

	28-09-2004 01:38									#10
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IIRC, this type of thing is something you would have to convince a specialty insurer to underwrite (Lloyds?). It would most likely be HUGELY expensive, at least at first. The main problem is that in this business, there isn't really an equivalent to a slip & fall. If something goes wrong, odds are it's a catastrophic loss.

-Arrian

	28-09-2004 01:51									#11
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These guys do not seem like they have yet developed a way to send human beings into orbit yet- certainly not one that can take and bring humans back and then dock with this thing. That seems to me the bggest problem with this plan, besides all the regulations and insurance costs to be met.

	28-09-2004 02:04									#12
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They are not proposing that they develop a way to get cargo and humans to and from the space station. Rather, they will buy those services. Bigelow will be giving away a $50 million "America's Space Prize" to the private company that can offer a ride for 5 to 7 astronauts to the stations.

The one private US manned rocketry project that has been announced is SpaceX's Falcon V, an unmanned version of which will launch in 2005 (and will carry Bigelow's first test subscale module). SpaceX is likely to bid on resupplying and recrewing ISS, as NASA has requested information about recently.

If push comes to shove, perhaps the RSA will handle station recrewing, while the Dnepr/Falcon V will handle station resupply, and Delta IV/Atlas V/Proton will handle module launch. The only truly privately developed launcher among the bunch is the Falcon V, which is adding to the "critical mass" I talked about above, but that and the Dnepr are the cheapest.

Last edited by DanS on 28-09-2004 at 22:51

	28-09-2004 02:14									#13
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quote: To me it's not about how much NASA spends. They throw away billions every year (or rather, the politicians who direct the spending throw away the money).

Very true. When I was at the KSC one word I heard a lot was 'cancelled'. They have all these different projects running and a lot of them aren't being completed because of lack of funding. What's popular with one administration might not be popular with the next (where will Bush's Mars vision be if Kerry wins?).

They could really do with better resource management; focus on a specific goal. At the moment they're trying to do to many things at once.

	28-09-2004 02:27									#14
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I'm thinking more about the congressmen who support or oppose NASA programs based on how many jobs it will generate or save in their congressional districts or states. It gives NASA feet of concrete and makes science only a peripheral goal.

I would love to hear the word "canceled", "ISS" and "Space Shuttle" all in the same sentence.

	28-09-2004 05:38									#15
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quote: Maybe they're victims of their own success.

NASA brought man to the moon. Unless you're some kind of crackpot, this is still the single biggest human achievement in recorded history.

On the other hand, politicians do bog down NASA. What needs to be done in my opinion is hand them a blank check and a due date for reaching Mars. It would be extremely embarassing if some Eurocoms or Chinese beat us off our planet.

But who's going to do something like that? What, is Bush going to waltz up to Congress tomorrow and ask for unlimited funding for what is essentially flexing our muscles and showing everyone else how big a d!ck the USA has?

	28-09-2004 06:29									#16
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quote: Originally posted by DanS I would love to hear the word "canceled", "ISS" and "Space Shuttle" all in the same sentence.

Let's not burn the eggbasket that works before the alternatives stop being pipedreams.

	28-09-2004 06:49									#17
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Perhaps it should be declared that whatever country/corporation/NGO reaches Mars first they can have sole rights for 50 years.

	28-09-2004 06:54									#18
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How about 'No'?

Turning it into an Antarctica-style preserve may be too extreme on one end, but handing it over to some interplanetary Hudson's Bay Company doesn't strike me like the best idea ever either.

	28-09-2004 07:13									#19
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Duce Bigelow in Space? If the space trailers rockin don't come knockin'.

	28-09-2004 07:14									#20
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quote: Originally posted by Sprayber Perhaps it should be declared that whatever country/corporation/NGO reaches Mars first they can have sole rights for 50 years.

	28-09-2004 07:30									#21
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This sounds more and more like the new dotcom craze.

	28-09-2004 18:34									#23
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quote: Let's not burn the eggbasket that works before the alternatives stop being pipedreams.

These aren't pipedreams. You can see the test articles pictured above. The endeavors may in the end be unsuccessful (as any achievement worth the effort and time is inerently risky), but the programs are fully-funded by private individuals and entities and we're seeing hardware fabricated and flown.

But in any event, I think that ISS and Space Shuttle should be canceled based on the programs' lack of merit, not because of what is happening in the private sector. My position might change if the private endeavors are becoming more successful, however. The ISS and Shuttle programs suck $6 billion per annum from NASA and return little but jobs for a few congressional districts.

	28-09-2004 18:51									#24
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Here's a good rundown for the "critical mass" of private space endeavors that I mentioned above.

http://www.aviationnow.com/avnow/ne...ws/09274wna.xml

To this, I would subtract the DaVinci project and add the Armadillo Aerospace project, which has stable funding and a good approach to building rockets.

Add Jeff Bezos' project "Blue Origin" to the mix too. They didn't list it in the article because the Bezos has been hush-hush about the project. But Blue Origin has been hiring for years. Much of Bezos' $4 billion fortune will be going into the space business, as I understand. It's just a matter of when it will be invested and what it will be invested in.

http://www.blueorigin.com/

	28-09-2004 19:11									#25
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How is this free market when it's largely funded without an expectation of return as well as involves lots of NASA input?

	28-09-2004 20:23									#26
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You're the first person in this thread to mention the "free market." Even the privately developed rockets (SpaceX Falcon I & Falcon V), draw on a long history of government-funded experience in rocketry. The SpaceShipOne suborbital rocket plane is probably the least influenced by government funding and experience, but there is still some residual.

	28-09-2004 20:23									#27
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It's more of an expensive hobby for nerds with lots of money.

	28-09-2004 20:27									#28
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Some rich nerds are trying to make money off of it (Elon Musk, Branson). Some rich nerds aren't (John Carmack, Robert Bigelow). Carmack looks at it as a hobby and compares it favorably to his race car hobby. Robert Bigelow looks at it more existentially.

Bezos appears to look at it existentially, but we don't know if he's really trying to make any money off of it.

Last edited by DanS on 28-09-2004 at 20:41

	28-09-2004 20:35									#29
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Okay, never mind then. I'm still concerned about the ability of these things to stand up to space debris. If the material is tough enough, though, perhaps they might consider setting up protectie sails near the stations.

	28-09-2004 20:43									#30
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These materials are much more robust than the aluminum shells used by ISS (the multilayered fabric is 1 foot to 18" thick, after all). Inflatables are one of those rare novel ideas that seems to make more and more sense as you continue to look at them. That's why even though NASA canceled the Transhab program which developed the idea, it is supporting the program with its brain power and experience.