30-09-2004 06:17									#31
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the bering land bridge submerged between 40K and 10K years ago... though there is speculation it was still up after this, that has remained speculation...

	30-09-2004 06:18									#32
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: I think it's bunk. There are groups of people who have only married among themselves for the last 3500 years, surely. I think it's a model of how things could work, not how they did work. Why do you say that?

Because I am positive that there are several populations who have been extremely isolated until very recently.

	30-09-2004 06:20									#33
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Of course, soon enough it will be true. Maybe another couple hundred years to allow for genetic exchange in those until recently isolated populations.

	30-09-2004 06:22									#34
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quote: Got spare money? the bering land bridge submerged between 40K and 10K years ago... though there is speculation it was still up after this, that has remained speculation...

Which has absolutely nothing to do with the question I asked. I guess I win the bet, how much money do you want to give me?

quote: Because I am positive that there are several populations who have been extremely isolated until very recently.

On NPR, I think they were saying that Tasmanians may have been an exception, but the point is that the vast, vast, vast majority of humanity is pretty closely connected.

	30-09-2004 06:22									#35
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the pygmies... the bushmen... the aboriginies... a slew of amazonian tribes...

oh and ramo... my bad. the eskimos did cross from asia to america just before 1000 or so... but that's fairly recent and i doubt the eskimo ancestors were getting around much before then nor were their descendents getting far south in the americas.

	30-09-2004 06:24									#36
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Ramo:

what are you saying? that the phoenicians built a temple to Istar in new carthage on the coast of guatemala and went on to rape every woman they encountered in a 1000 mile area?

	30-09-2004 06:29									#37
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I'm saying that there was probably a significant number of immigrants to America that crossed the Berring Straits without the assistance of a land bridge. Again, if Charlemagne can be the father of the Western world, that clearly isn't warranted.

	30-09-2004 06:31									#38
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but historical data thus far concludes that no significant number of immigrants crossed from the old world to the new in ancient times... theories about phoenicians and polynesians are speculative...

and anyone saw that thing where both Bush and Kerry share a common ancestor in the 17th century?

	30-09-2004 06:35									#39
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo quote: Because I am positive that there are several populations who have been extremely isolated until very recently. On NPR, I think they were saying that Tasmanians may have been an exception, but the point is that the vast, vast, vast majority of humanity is pretty closely connected.

I think they are being overly optimistic even with populations that were all linked by land. Many societies in Africa-Eurasia are very... discriminating. Think India and caste, let alone people of different colours from far off places. Customs of not breeding out of class and or culture is a serious obstacle for a theory like this to overcome.

Also, 3500 years is not very many generations when you think about it. Even at average breeding at 15 years it is about 230 generations. Too few to link everyone even in Africa-Eurasia, given history IMO.

Of course now it will happen fairly rapidly with class and cultural barriers being torn down.

	30-09-2004 06:38									#40
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yeah... their whole assumption was that no population remained isolated for any lengthy time period, an assumption which historical research thus far proves false.

	30-09-2004 06:38									#41
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The researchers are saying that the models take into account class, cultural barriers, etc.

quote: but historical data thus far concludes that no significant number of immigrants crossed from the old world to the new in ancient times...

Proof? I don't see how historical data would contradict that Siberian immigrants (mind you, not huge numbers and not all the time) crossed over every once in a while. It seems like a reasonable supposition to me.

quote: theories about phoenicians and polynesians are speculative...

Neither Phoenicians nor Polynesians crossed over the Berring Straits.

	30-09-2004 06:40									#42
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quote: Proof? I don't see how historical data would contradict that Siberian immigrants (mind you, not huge numbers and not all the time) crossed over every once in a while. It seems like a reasonable supposition to me.

and these siberian immigrants were cousins to zulus and went from alaska and breed their way down both continents? did ancient siberians before the ekimos even possess vassels capable of this?

	30-09-2004 06:43									#43
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Again, you still don't understand what this study is saying. Some guy or gal in Burma 3500 years ago had descendents who crossed the Berring Straits and some descendents who made it into South Africa.

	30-09-2004 06:44									#44
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Proof? I don't see how historical data would contradict that Siberian immigrants (mind you, not huge numbers and not all the time) crossed over every once in a while. It seems like a reasonable supposition to me.

What's unreasonable is that some few... 'boat people' would have interbred their way down the Americas.

There would indeed have been contact between bands of Innu and other residents of Northern climes. The problem would have been in them spreading from there. The Cree, those who lived just South of the Innu had a: little contact with the Innu and b: a virulent hatred for each other (at least at the time of Europeans being around to record such things). All in all it does not point to an easy barrier for recent migrants from Asia to reach the mountains of Colorado, let alone the Andes.

	30-09-2004 06:46									#45
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quote: Also, 3500 years is not very many generations when you think about it. Even at average breeding at 15 years it is about 230 generations. Too few to link everyone even in Africa-Eurasia, given history IMO.

Too few based on what reason? Did you attempt to model this as well?

I think criticizing the study as bunk is pretty silly without actually seeing the data. If the study's sound enough to get published in Nature, I don't see how I can automatically object to this when I have absolutely no experience in modeling this sort of thing.

	30-09-2004 06:47									#46
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo Again, you still don't understand what this study is saying. Some guy or gal in Burma 3500 years ago had descendents who crossed the Berring Straits and some descendents who made it into South Africa.

I think I've got it right. They have a model of how it could have happened. What I doubt is that it happened the way their model carries them.

There were barriers to interbreeding that were as much cultural as based on distance, maybe more.

Have I got them wrong?

	30-09-2004 06:48									#47
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They say that they modeled these factors. I'll take a rigorous model that survived the scrutiny of Nature, over hand-wavy arguments.

	30-09-2004 06:49									#48
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quote: I think I've got it right.

I was talking to Speer.

	30-09-2004 06:52									#49
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Well, I don't know how they accopmlished that. I freely admit that. Put it this way, I am skeptical about their model as applied to history. I am not skeptical about their model extending into the future. That I can see.

	30-09-2004 06:53									#50
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo They say that they modeled these factors. I'll take a rigorous model that survived the scrutiny of Nature, over hand-wavy arguments.

Did Nature report on Cold Fussion?

	30-09-2004 06:56									#51
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Remember, scientist can be wrong. They predicted that quake in California 11 years off.

	30-09-2004 07:05									#52
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quote: Did Nature report on Cold Fussion?

It was submitted to Nature. IIUC, they didn't publish it (though may be mistaken). However, the first paper that showed why P&F's claims were erroneous were published in Nature.

But yes, the paper could be wrong. I'm just saying that there's no real reason to think it is.

	30-09-2004 07:08									#53
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Well, as a social 'scientist' I have plenty of reason to doubt the accuracy of a mathematical model of migration of genetic material. Humans don't boil down to numbers very well. They're persnickity beasts and they do all sorts of things that you never expected.

I'd love to see genetic samples be the basis of such a claim. I am skeptical of a computer program that predicts it.

	30-09-2004 07:26									#54
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This is as bad as the evangelicals who try to prove that the earth is only 6000 years old. In both cases it's ideology masquerading as science.

	30-09-2004 07:33									#55
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quote: Originally posted by pchang I don't think you understand the meaning of the article. People existed before 1500BC, but if you go back to 1500BC we most likely all have at least one common relative.

I'm well aware that there were humans that existed before Homo Sapiens, thank you very much.


What I was questioning, is if this shows that HOMO SAPIENS were not the ones who actually founded the first civilizations, but that a different Homo species did.

	30-09-2004 07:42									#56
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Homo sapiens existed since whenever it is that's theorized that they existed. The article is suggesting that one of the descendents of the first homo sapiens is our common ancestor at around 1500 B.C. Actually I think it's supposed to be homo sapiens sapiens. Homo sapiens was the species before, IIRC.

	30-09-2004 07:43									#57
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quote: They're persnickity beasts and they do all sorts of things that you never expected..

But the migration of a person's genes is probably less nonlinear than the vast majority of economic theory.

quote: I'd love to see genetic samples be the basis of such a claim. I am skeptical of a computer program that predicts it.

They use the computer to evaluate the mathematical model. That's how it always works in any reasonably complicated system.

quote: This is as bad as the evangelicals who try to prove that the earth is only 6000 years old. In both cases it's ideology masquerading as science.

Says the racist. And only on Poly can someone call Nature "ideology masquerading as science."

	30-09-2004 07:45									#58
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quote: What I was questioning, is if this shows that HOMO SAPIENS were not the ones who actually founded the first civilizations, but that a different Homo species did.

No, that has absolutely nothing to do with what the article refers to.

	30-09-2004 07:54									#59
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I'm not taking any sides here, but notyoueither has a point, about the genetic material evidence. if they have it bundled with the mathematical model i'm a bit more inclined to believe the date of 1500 b.c. but without, it seems too recent a date.

i have no doubts that we all share a common ancestor, maybe not as old as the mitochodrial eve, but not as recent as this purely mathematical model suggest.

	30-09-2004 07:56									#60
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quote: Originally posted by Ramo only on Poly can someone call Nature "ideology masquerading as science."

You actually believe that everyone alive today is descended from one person. Your delusion has reached new heights. It's actually pretty sad to see someone so blind.